Also on my blog with better formatting, cute footnotes and inlined images.
Note that not much here is new material, mostly rehashing existing points.

Disclaimer

This article started out as research for my betting against Bitcoin on the stock market. This isn't financial advice. As a matter of fact, I encourage all readers you to not buy or short crypto, through any market or derivative. Use your money for productive uses.
Here's a TL;DR:

1. The current parabolic price increase in Bitcoin is a bubble that has started popping.
   
2. A stablecoin called Tether is either one of the largest frauds or money laundering operation in history, and is providing most of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
   
3. A BTC bubble pop, incoming regulation on stablecoins or the current NYAG investigation into tether will expose tether's insolvency to the crypto market. This is bigger than it sounds.
   
4. (Speculative, but one can hope) Current prices to mine BTC could end up higher than BTC market price, exposing BTC to a 51% attack.
   

A Recap: Bitcoin is useless and should go away

Bitcoin serves no purpose. Let's just rehash that by quickly debunking the major claimed uses over time as seen here

• Proof of concept: No argument here, but now that the market cap of cryptocurrencies is closing in on a $700B, this seems moot.
  
• Cheap Payment Network: Nonsense, since BTC transactions are currently >$10 and this worsens the more people use it.
  
• Anonymous Darknet Currency: I'd have said "no argument here", but apparently it's surprisingly easy to trace BTC nowadays. However, crypto ecosystem as a whole seems to do a decent job at laundering money as we'll see later.
  
• Reserve Currency for Crypto: Since a reserve currency should be useful as a means of exchange, and I wrote several thousand words on how BTC is not that, my position is pretty clear. Also, the fact that a cryptocurrency indexed to the US dollar has trounced BTC as the main means of exchange in the crypto ecosystem speaks for itself.
  
• Programmable Shared Database: You know what's programmable, shared and a database? The database we use at work. Just learn to implement access control lists on your SQL server.
  
• Uncorrelated Financial Asset: Given BTC crashed just like the rest of the market when COVID showed up, this doesn't hold up
  

The stupidest version of the "uncorrelated asset" argument I hear is "Bitcoin is a great hedge for inflation!"
You know what's a good "hedge for inflation"? Literally anything. The definition of inflation is "the price of money". If the price of money goes down (inflation) then everything else has a positive return by comparison.
People who say "bitcoin is a good hedge for inflation" shouldn't be trusted to manage their own money, let alone give financial advice to anyone.

• Censorship Resistant e-Gold: This is a roundabout way of saying "BTC is a store of value"! Which, again, can only be said by people who've never read the definition of "store of value" in a textbook.

I already went into detail into this, but BTC is a terrible store of value because it's volatile. Assets that can lose 20% of value overnight don't "store value". BTC is a "vehicle for speculation".
The only way price is sustained for BTC is that you can find some other idiot to sell it to. Just as a reminder, 50% of Gold is used for things that aren't speculation, like Jewelry, so you'll never have to worry finding a seller there.
Here are some real uses for bitcoin:

• Gambling is fun. You buy BTC, the price might go up! Or down! This is exciting.
  
• Hackers, money launderers and other criminals certainly find cryptocurrencies useful.
  

Reminder: BTC is an ecological scourge
The current cost to mine a BTC is around $8000 in electricity. This electricity mostly comes from subsidized coal in China.
And given the current amount of BTC generated each day, we're using about equivalent to the electricity from all of Belgium, largely in coal, to keep this going.
I don't mind wasting time on intellectual curiosities, but destroying our planet for glorified gambling is not something I'm happy about. I want cryptocurrencies to go away entirely on this basis, philosophically.

Current BTC prices are a bubble

Before we go into tether, reminder that at the time of writing, the plot of BTC price against the S&P500 looks like this
BTC price has increased by ~800% since March. Still, no one uses it for anything useful since the last bubble in 2017, or the other one before that in 2013. This is another bubble however you put it.
BTC is not "new technology"
10 years the internet became popular, Google and Amazon already existed. We're 8 years after the popular emergence of deep learning and it has already revolutionized machine translation, computer vision and natural language processing in general.
You could argue that deep learning and the internet existed before their emergence, but so did cryptocurrencies. Look up b-money and hashcash for instance.
Bitcoin has existed since 2008 and emerged in popularity around the same time as deep learning did, yet we're still to find actual uses for it except speculation and criminal uses. It's a solution waiting for a problem.
Institutional investors are also idiots
The narrative this time is that "institutional investors" are buying into BTC. This doesn't mean it's not a bubble.
Many of the institutions were buying through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Rather, many of them were chasing the premium over net asset value that hovered around 20%. Basically, lock money in GBTC for 6 months, cash out and collect the premium as profit. Of course, this little Ponzi couldn't last forever and the premium seems to be evaporating now.
Similarly, totally-not-a-bitcoin-ETF-wearing-a-software-company-skinsuit Microstrategy (MSTR) trades at a massive premium over fundamentals.
There will always be traders chasing bonuses from numbers going up, regardless what is making the number going up. The same "institutional investors" were buying obviously terrible CDOs in the run-up to 2008.

Tether is lunacy

Tether is a cryptocurrency whose exchange rate is supposed to be pegged to the US Dollar. Initially this was done by having 1-to-1 US Dollar reserves for each tether issued. Then they got scammed by their money launderer, losing some $800M, which made them insolvent.
Anyway, now tether maintains their reserves are whatever they want them to be and they haven't gotten audited since 2017.
You know, normal stuff.
There's a problem to backing your USD-pegged security with something that isn't US Dollars. Namely, if the price of the thing you're backing your US Dollars against goes down, you're now insolvent. If you were backing $10B in tether with $10B of bitcoin, then the bitcoin drops by half, you're insolvent by $5B.
And then this spotlessly clean company they somehow added $20B to their balance sheet in the second half of 2020
Reminder: one side of that balance sheet is currently floating around the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Cryptocurrency traders own it as an asset and sell it to others. The other half of the balance sheet is whatever tether wants.
There are only two possibilities that explain tether's growth:

• Massive unbacked issuances, because they're afraid their scam has run its course.
  
• Money laundering. Lots of it.
  

It could also be a happy mix of both.
One particularly interesting date is 30/8/2020, where tether added $3B to its balance sheet overnight. This is interesting because it predates the subsequent movement in bitcoin price and large movements in other cryptocurrencies.
The story from tether and tether's bank's CEO is that this money largely comes from foreign nationals through an OTC desk which implies the transaction goes as following:

1. A foreign national sends money in a foreign currency to an OTC desk. This is exactly as clean as you'd think -- often raw cash transactions in the millions.
   
2. That OTC desk converts the money to USD and sends it to tether's correspondent US bank. The OTC desk gives tether to the foreign national.
   
3. Wait tether has a correspondent US bank?
   

Oh, I forgot to mention, no bank wants tether as a customer because they obviously break KYC/AML compliance. So tether first bought invested in a bank called Noble which then lost its relationship with Wells-Fargo when they realized tether were lying to them about AML. Poor tether lost its legal access to USD.
Tether has been banking in the Bahamas with a bank called Deltec since. First they had a money launderer called Crypto Capital Corp to send funds to customers, who stole the $800M from them and subsequently went to jail.
But worry not! Tether found a way to get banked in USD afterwards. Curious coincidence, an executive at Deltec was randomly blogging about buying small US community banks in 2018. You know, that thing money launderers do.
So tether's story is that in 2020, they took in roughly twenty billion USD of shady foreign money into the small community US bank their deltec bankers bought. These transactions are necessarily breaking KYC/AML. The foreign parties to those transactions wouldn't take such a rickety route to convert billions into cryptocurrencies if they weren't laughed out of the room in serious banks.
But of course, Deltec will say it did KYC on tether. Really solid KYC, clearly, since they're the last bank on earth taking tether's business. Tether says they do KYC on their customers (the large OTC desks). And I'm sure the OTC desks would be shocked, shocked if the cash money they get in Russia and China turns out to be dirty. So everyone can pass the buck of responsibility down the road and claim "We do KYC on our customers".
Sure you do, tether. If you did such great KYC, you wouldn't have such problems finding banking relationships. I mean when even HSBC is not doing business with you you're apparently more obviously moving criminal money than fucking drug cartels.
And, according to tether's people, this money is what's backing tether's reserves. Money that will get frozen the instant a prosecutor even looks at it.
Reminder: the above is the charitable, positive case for tether.
The less charitable case is that they took crayons and added zeros to their balance sheet, and that there's a couple billions waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem.
Anyway, the $25B garbage fire that is tether will make a great book/netflix series at some point and their hilariously stupid CTO going on podcasts while flinching on questions about how BTC ended up on their balance sheet will be a fun part of it.
But I'm not here to write a book, I'm here to make money by shorting all of this. For my purposes, even in the positive case tether is a ticking time bomb waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem, because...

KYC and AML are coming for cryptocurrencies

If you listen to "crypto news", all incoming crypto regulation is just great, because that means crypto is becoming legit. However, companies investing in crypto are very angry about them.
This is because crypto transactions break the FinCEN travel rule, where KYC information should "travel" along transactions, to prevent money laundering obfuscation schemes.
Of course, according to the crypto industry this is "stifling innovation". A more reasonable take is that by being leaving the crypto industry outside normal financial regulations, we're enabling a "race to the bottom". As we saw with shadow banks in the 2000-2007 era this leads to "creative banking". I don't want my bankers to be creative, I want them to be solvent.

Tether's effect on the crypto ecosystem

When tether implodes, it's taking most of the crypto industry along for a fun ride. Tether can implode in one of a few ways:

1. A BTC price crash triggers it. If
   
2. Regulators decide they've had enough of AML avoidance and regulate them.
   
3. The NYAG investigation, which is waiting for an update in a few weeks, finds something and shuts them out.
   

Let's assume tether falls to $0 for simplicity. The analysis is the same directionally if tether significantly "breaks the buck".
This doesn't happen instantly, but it happens quickly. The peg breaks, and most people holding tether will try to sell it for other crypto (BTC, ETH, etc.). This puts downward pressure on the price of tether, incentivizing even more people to "pass the buck". Automated inter-exchange arbitrage bots might try to exploit emerging gaps in bid-ask spreads, only to end up with worthless tether instead, as their operators rush to pull the plug.
Then, we have a small village of cryptocurrency enthusiasts being out some $24B. With the trading bots turned off and the trading lubricant (a dollar pegged asset) gone, the bid-ask spreads blow up. You get a predictable flight to safety -- that is, to real money. This puts downward pressure on BTC.
While all of this is happening, there are all sorts of fun second-order effects happen. A lot of DeFi derivative products are priced in cryptocurrencies, so having normally stable prices shuffle around (eg. USDC price moving above $1 in a flight to safety) triggers a tsunami of margin calls. Some exchanges might insolvent (they're the ones redeeming tether for USD after all).

If BTC price drops below $8000, fun things happen

Currently, the price to mine a BTC is roughly $8000. Most of the mining comes from huge mining farms using subsidized coal in China, and mining costs more the more hardware there is to mine it.
Since the price of BTC hasn't substantially dropped below cost to mine we're in for a fun experiment if the price drops below this threshold. Most of these farms should turn off so that the price to mine comes back to breakeven in a case of prisoner's dilemma.
But if too much hardware turns off, this leaves mining hardware idle and the door becomes wide open to a 51% attack. It's not clear at what price below breakeven cost to mine a 51% attack becomes a serious threat, but once this threshold is crossed, we're in the "irreparable harm to BTC" risk zone.
And for a person like me, who just wants to see crypto disappear forever this is very exciting.
Maybe those mining farms could be replaced with nice forests soaking up all the carbon they emitted for posterity. One can hope.

How do I bet against all of this?

Microstrategy (MSTR) is, at this point, a bitcoin ETF wearing the skinsuit of a dying software company.
Michael Saylor, MSTR's CEO, is quite the character. I wrote a lot about his lack understanding of what a currency is, but it's on another level to look at the early stages of a bubble pop and decide this is a good time to buy $10M more of the stuff, as seen here
However, this bubble is tame by Michael's standards. Look at the historical stock of his company
What's happening on the left is that Saylor pumped the numbers with accounting fraud then the SEC took issue with the fake numbers. The stock dropped 90% practically overnight. Their accountants, PWC, paid $51M in fines. Saylor and friends paid fines, partly with company stock.
You could also short GBTC, but when Mr. Saylor provides you with an options market instead, why not use it? Shorting on crypto exchanges that might become insolvent in the very event you want to happen with this bet is a bad idea, on the other hand.

Mike can't cash out

The bitcoin market is illiquid and leveraged when it comes to real money coming in and leaving the ecosystem. Buys in the $10M-$100M seemingly move the price of BTC by upwards of $1000 in the last weeks. This means hundreds of millions of real money means tens of billions in movement in BTC market capitalization.
Now imagine what cashing $1.1B of BTC into real money would mean for the price. And this is purely in market terms, before the PR damage from bitcoin's demigod abandoning ship would have second-order effects.
Saylor has painted himself into a corner. Even if he wanted to cash out, he can't.

MSTR fundamentals: Why it should be valued below $10

In early 2020, MSTR was a slowly dying business. The EBITDA has been rapidly evaporating in the last 5 years
At that point, MSTR a stock price of $115 meaning a market cap of $1.1B. This included some $560M of cash they were sitting on. I presume the remaining $550M was an implicit sales premium for the inevitable private equity firm investors expected was going to relieve them of this stock and make the business profitable again.
Of course, they didn't sell.
Instead, they took the $560m they were sitting on and bought $400m of BTC at prices $11k and $13k in late summer 2020. Then, in early December, they took on $600m of debt to buy BTC with at $23k. They also bought $10m more in January at a price of $30.5k.
At this point, we can mostly value MSTR like a trust.

• Price the underlying software business as being worth $600M, as the market did before the bitcoin nonsense. If BTC went to $0, this is what we'd value it at, and the MSTR stock should be around $65.
  
• But wait! MSTR took on $650M in debt in December. Their actual value with a BTC priced at $0 should be much, much lower than $65 depending on how you value the debt. You could make an argument it should be in the single digits.
  
• They hold 70,784 BTC. At current prices ($32,000) this is worth roughly $2.2B. With the current market cap of MSTR ($577 stock price), this means MSTR is currently priced at an eye watering $3B premium over fundamental value.
  

GBTC's 20% premium-to-NAV is a joke compared to the MSTR premium.

Your 17-minute Tuesday report in 4151 words.

Part 2: General Samvel Babayan reveals details from war / Weapon supplies / Shushi / Army command / South & North / $5 billion offer

Last week, Artsakh opposition official [non-former regime] General Samvel Babayan gave an interview and expressed his opinion about shortcomings, inefficient management by commanders, refusal to follow orders, General Movses not wanting to command the southern front, etc. Here is the second and final part of that 70-minute-long interview.
Q: you sensed the pending war and wrote letters to Serj in 2013 and to Pashinyan in 2018 with suggestions. How did they respond to them?
A: what I wrote in those letters ended up becoming reality. The letters hadn't received enough attention. I met Pashinyan and he said he accepted 80% of my suggestions and added them to the list of planned actions. I warned that we only had a year before the war. Azerbaijan had been preparing for 10 years.
Some people believe that had we exercised proper diplomacy we could avoid this war. It's the power of our army that prevents wars; diplomacy comes second. We had to strengthen the army and display our strength.
Q: tell us about the initial attacks.
The attacks began on Mataghis (north-east) and south-east. In the Mataghis area, military experts advised the withdrawal of the entire 7th Defense Division for better defense, but army general Jalal Harutyunyan rightfully rejected the advice and organized defense on Mataghis outskirts. They were able to hold it.
The cracks formed in the south-east (Araks flat plains). 4-5 cracks formed in different directions within 5 days. The 1st Corps's 2nd echelon failed to defend itself, then counter-attacked and failed, before retreating. Azeris moved along the Araks plains. The defense became harder in an area that's completely open; the line went from 11km to 60km. The army was unprepared for it.
Why wasn't the army prepared in the south? I'll talk about it soon. Today some generals blame others, they say "higher-ups are at fault". The blame-game is a thing since 1992. [talks about things already mentioned in Part 1]
70% of high-ranking officers weren't "in place". There were some who routed. Officers shared lies with each other. Jalal Harutyunyan was forced to appoint 19-year-olds as high-ranking officers as a substitute. [talks about things mentioned in Part 1]
Anyone who served as the General Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces in the past decade was supposed to observe weapon purchases by Azerbaijan and make counter-purchases. It's not the soldier or people that lose the war, it's the commanders. The prosecutors should investigate what the officers reported about Azerbaijan in the past 10 years. Our kids did what was impossible.
Q: what's the deal with the mobilization?
There is a regular army (conscripts etc.) and mobilization forces (reservists etc.). I was against the idea of sending the mobilized troops to Military Units. 15 days before the war we [Security Council of Artsakh] decided that in the event of war, Artsakh needed 17,500 mobilized troops. They would form 8 brigades, 4 of which would go to the south (Jabrail area).
Some army commanders and other higher-ups decided that the mobilized troops should go and join the regular army. This was a mistake. As you see now, their merger introduced panic. Mobilized forces could only merge with regular ones if the regular army officers were highly trained, with high morale and skills. That wasn't the case. The regular army couldn't properly manage the mobilized troops.
The army kept sending several military units in the south. They were inefficient and unprepared. That's where our main losses are, in the Jabrayil region.
General Movses Hakobyan
I advised the creation of a new command unit in the south-west which would be lead by General Movses "Mosi" Hakobyan [Mosi recently got fired and blamed everything on Pashinyan]. Mosi has a record of leading 1st, 3rd, and 5th units. He had experience with them, not me. Had I been familiar with these units, I would personally go and lead the proposed command unit in the south.
General Mosi refused to go to the south, citing "old personal problems". We need to understand why he refused to go there. During his interview, Mosi said he refused because I [Babayan] was the one who offered him to go there. [personal beef]. I met Mosi 10 times yet he never expressed any issues. Had we installed this command unit in the south-west, it could coordinate defense with the command center in the south-east.
[Babayan talks about his plan to cut off Azeris with tank assault. Jajal personally goes to the south and organizes the offense. The initial operation is successful, confused Azeris leave 150 dead and can't understand what's happening for 3 hours. One Armenian tank brigade goes all the way to river Araks, but commanders of the second tank brigade don't go further to secure the area.]
Talish operation
In the north, I had a plan to retake Talish. We would send a unit from west to east towards Talish, while the main army would attack from south to north. Army chief Jalal agreed and prepared the attack but he was wounded.
The new army chief came but due to complicated reasons, such as the need to withdraw troops from north to station in the south, this plan wasn't executed. It was a mistake. We should have attacked in the north because Azeris had earlier withdrew 50 armored vehicles to move them to the south. Azeris had left the north ill-defended. Our successful attack would then prompt Azeris to pull troops from south to north. Azeris would also have 80,000 more refugees in the north-east.
Shushi operation
We had a plan on November 5th to encircle Azeri troops who reached Shushi [so there was, indeed, a hope to turn things around until the last moment]. A few units were supposed to be deployed. They'd capture a hill and cut Azeris off. At night, we get the news that all three of our units refused to do their duties after meeting the leader of the Martakert region.
During the meeting, soldiers apparently said that they only wanted to serve in the place of their original service. An investigation needs to uncover who and what the region leader's role was during the meeting. A lot of people were hindering Jalal Harutyunyan's work during the war instead of helping him.
There were diversionary groups who would go meet army officers and tell them "this isn't our war, we've lost anyway, you're losing men pointlessly." The military prosecutor needs to investigate them. I said exactly what happened. An investigation needs to find and question them.
Jalal Harutyunyan
It's fake news that Jalal was wounded after an assassination attempt. He was wounded by enemy fire. I don't know who and why spread the assassination rumors, perhaps for political reasons.
air defense: TOR & BUK
We had no air defense. Some people talk about TOR missiles today. We had ordered 18. We had 6 of them during the war, 4 of which were shot in Artsakh in the first two weeks. Then we imported 4 more TOR units during the war but they were insufficient. It's false that Armenia didn't give weapons to Artsakh. Everything was shared.
6 BUK units were supposed to be sent to Artsakh on October 19th. It turns out 5 of them were dysfunctional. They had to call Russian experts to come and fix them. They were supposed to be ready by November 10th. Basically, everything was delayed as much as possible.
We didn't have weapons. It's a myth that we were provided with sufficient weapons. Russia wasn't obligated to give us weapons during the war. We were supposed to buy them before the war.
there was no conspiracy around Shushi
The rumors about Shushi being given away intentionally are false. We just didn't have resources. Azeris didn't have many resources, either. I want to emphasize that. Azeris were in a nervous state. Aliyev was "quiet" for some time. He didn't know how it would all end.
"Nikol should have stopped the war"
About people who called for Pashinyan to stop the war. As of October 19th, we would have to give Shushi to stop the war. Do you agree? No? Then we had to continue the war. Today they [presumably opposition] present the events, saying that they asked Pashinyan to stop the war for 10 days. Okay. The condition was we would have to give away 7 regions and Shushi. No? Then the war continues. As far as I know, the war was supposed to end with the capture of Shushi and Stepanakert would not have been captured. [Aliyev had stated publicly that Shushi was their main goal]
about weapon supplies from Russia
At some point, I suggested either giving away 7 regions because we didn't have enough weapons to defend, or to receive more weapons from Russia if Russia agreed.
Today some say Russia supplied weapons with jets. I want them to publish the content of those jets. Show me what weapons were supplied. If we had enough weapons, then we could continue. The only other option was to withdraw from 7 regions. Today Russia came and protects us. [is Babayan hinting that Russia intentionally didn't give weapons to force Armenians to withdraw to achieve Lavrov's Plan? You decide, it's at around 54:00 mark]
Garnik Isagulyan
Garnik Isagulyan is a clown who needs treatment.
Q: is the former govt correct about the Pashinyan administration being traitors?
We were in worse shape in 1992. Everyone was looking for traitors. "Levon gave away Shashumyan, Levon gave away Martakert, it's all a conspiracy", etc. all this traitor talk is very familiar to me. It's the same scenario now. No one wants to accept responsibility for the defeat. I gave you the military situation so you draw conclusions.
The investigation chain should open everything that happened in the past 10 years.
$5 billion offered by Azerbaijan
Today some talk about $5 billion offered by Azerbaijan [to Serj, leaked on secret audio recording]. I spoke about it two years ago and HHK MP Ashotyan called me crazy. Who is crazy now? They [Serj admin] discussed and negotiated over $5 billion. Pashinyan administration doesn't talk about it but will eventually mention those discussions, too.
Serj was prepared to take the deal, give the 7 regions, and finish it. But the government changed in 2018 and it didn't happen. Aliyev had offered the same deal to Pashinyan. I know what Pashinyan's answer was. If Garnik Isagulyan [anti-Pashinyan] wants to know Pashinyan's answer, then he has to stop spreading his lies first.
what's next?
No need to cause panic in the public. Everyone must realize that we must pay our taxes to build a professional army. The professional army would have 18-year-olds serve 1 year in their city instead of being deployed in borders. I'm ready to do my part.
https://youtu.be/WxiUpjlFHyM
Tag: #ArtsakhWar #SamvelBabayan #ShushiBattles #Shushi #Jabrayil

Samvel Babayan will sue Garnik Isagulyan

Read above for context. Garnik is another opposition figure. The two had a spat. Garnik made some claims about Babayan and Turkish drones. Babayan is suing for alleged defamation and lies. Babayan has also filed a petition with prosecutors to investigate some of the more serious accusations by Garnik.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203009

SIS is looking for tapes mentioned by General Movses

Anti-Pashinyan general Movses Hakobyan [mentioned in an interview by Babayan above] had earlier claimed that Pashinyan allegedly gave an illegal order about the military draft and that someone recorded it for legal purposes.
The SIS launched an investigation since the accusation of crimes were made. SIS says no one came forward and no audiotape was presented. Pashinyan had earlier said, "we [cabinet] spent a while looking for the illegal order that [Mosi] was talking about and couldn't find such orders issued by me."
[It appears there was disagreement on the draft process. Some wanted volunteers/reservists to join the regular army while others were against?]
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037934.html

opposition holds rally with optimistic message for the future

Vazgen Manukyan [Team-16, former regime candidate] met representatives of several media outlets to discuss the situation in Armenia, about possible ways to negotiate better terms based on the November 9th statement signed by AM-AZ-RU, improving ties with allies, economy, etc. He vowed not to repeat the mistakes made by Armenia post-independence.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037870.html
The Team-16 resumed the demonstrations today. They demand Pashinyan's resignation.
Vazgen Manukyan: I am fighting for the memory of the boys who dreamed of having a strong country. We will win, there is no question there. We will stand again. We are a little disappointed now, we are disappointed in ourselves, but we are a strong people, we will stand up again, we will be the most powerful and influential country in this region, we will ensure a prosperous and happy life. There is a small obstacle [Pashinyan, presumably], we will get rid of it. Everything we have been fighting for for decades must be achieved.
ARF Ishkhan Saghatelyan: We will continue the rally tomorrow from the Circus area to the law enforcement buildings.
The 2800-member demonstration ended in the evening under the chants of "Vazgen, Prime Minister. Vazgen, Prime Minister."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037906.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037931.html , https://factor.am/321224.html , https://youtu.be/6qPM1Kf52b4

re: metro demonstration

Prosecutors filed charges against one of the demonstrators who shut down the Yerevan metro on Friday. A video was released showing dissatisfied riders berating the activists and complaining about "running late to work" and being unable to "deliver medicine".
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037907.html

former police official's claims are investigated

HHK MP Hrayr Tovmasyan's relative, police official Seroj Gharibyan, had recently resigned and claimed he was given illegal orders by police administration. The investigation didn't find evidence to back up his claim. The former regime has been trying to convince police to join the opposition.
https://factor.am/321216.html

misinformation about border incident near Agarak

A Canadian reporter wrote that he spoke with Kapan mayor and that the latter allegedly confirmed a border shooting on December 13th. "About 50 Azeris moved towards the Armenian border, Armenians made warning shots in the air, Azeris made similar shots. No injuries."
Several Armenian outlets presented it as a "border shootout". One outlet went as far as to claim Azeris shot at Armenian positions for half an hour. Pashinyan would later cover this incident while criticizing the media for "information terror".
The Canadian reporter decided to issue a correction hours later, saying "The Armenian side fired shots in the air when Azeris decided to come close, but Azeris didn't return fire. Azeris demanded Armenians to leave, but no action was taken."
Kapan mayor confirmed that there was no shootout.
https://fip.am/14227

how big is the Hin Tagher-Khtsaberd village area

That's the area that Azeris captured last weekend. Peacekeepers were stationed later. The area is 122km^2. Yerevan is 223 km² for comparison. Some outlets had incorrectly claimed the area was 3x Yerevan.
https://fip.am/14241

Hin Shen road has been unblocked / rumors about 100+ captives

Artsakh prez. spokesman: Azeris have removed the blockade on one of the villages. Earlier they tried to install a military post on the road leading to the village but Russian peacekeepers told them to leave.
There was misinformation [by a former opposition politician] about Azeris allegedly telling the Armenian population of Hin Shen to leave within 12 hours. There was a similar ultimatum to Armenian soldiers earlier.
We are investigating reports of 100 Armenian captives in this area. We have not confirmed it. It's possible Azeris are intentionally circulating rumors to create internal tensions here. We're still investigating those claims. [Armenian MoD said they're waiting for details from Artsakh army.]
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037942.html , https://factor.am/321243.html

Azeri journalist blocked

Russian peacekeepers did not allow Azeri journalist Eynul Fatullayev to enter the Armenian church Dadiank, which is located in one of the 7 regions that went under Azeri control.
https://news.am/arm/news/619159.html

Artsakh govt warns about Azeri fake news

... that was circulated earlier, claiming to show a document alleging the planned evacuation of Artsakh residents. The document was created by Azeri special services, says Artsakh.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037888.html

Kocharyan & Co trial

... has been delayed again because one of the defendants' lawyers was a no-show again. The next trial date is December 22nd.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037887.html

The Guardian article about Azerbaijan's war crimes

"Two men beheaded in videos from Nagorno-Karabakh war identified"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/two-men-beheaded-in-videos-from-nagorno-karabakh-war-identified

posthumous medals to soldiers

22 soldiers received medals for acts of heroism and providing medical aid under dangerous conditions.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037877.html

exchange of POWs

Yesterday, Armenia and Azerbaijan began exchanging persons who were captured before the war. 44 Armenians and 12 Azeris returned to their homes.
26 out of 44 Armenians who returned were subjects of the ECHR court petition filed by Armenia. The govt will continue to petition the European court to secure POWs' rights.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037824.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037847.html
One of the POWs, who returned yesterday, is from Ejmiatsin. His family is among the families of 40 missing soldiers who had been gathering outside of Ejmiatsin military station for weeks in hopes of news. "I'm glad he returned. Now we have to struggle for the other 40," said a relative.
The families of other Ejmiatsin soldiers gathered for news again. They wanted to speak with the General Chief of Staff. They want faster search operations in the southern Zangelan region.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037853.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037848.html
Pashinyan met families of POWs and missing persons to brief them on the progress.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037866.html
Narek Sardaryan is an Armenian civilian who got lost and crossed into Azeri border in July. He was returned to Armenia today, separately from the other 44.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037869.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037904.html
Two Azeri prisoners, Guliyev and Askerov, were serving prison time in Armenia for infiltrating and killing a teenager during a spy mission. They recorded the hostage teen on video before killing him. They spent 6 years in prison and were swapped yesterday as part of the all-for-all swap, after receiving approval from the murdered teenager's parents.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203048
The next group of Armenian POWs will arrive within days, says QP MP Nazeli.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037902.html

refugees, peacekeepers, and humanitarian aid

566 people returned to Artsakh today. 40,000 have done so through the Lachin road since the ceasefire.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037827.html
400 apartments are being rebuilt in Martakert and nearby villages. It includes properties damaged during the war and those that were vacant well before the war. The construction is aided by the Artsakh govt, Russia, and the Red Cross.
90% of Martakert has electricity, gas, and water. All schools except for one are operating.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037876.html
Russian peacekeepers have neutralized 5,000 explosives from 189ha of land since the ceasefire. Today they cleared 1.5km of roads and 189 bombs.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037832.html

Video: Концерт для российских миротворцев

Russian military ensemble visited the Lachin corridor to perform songs and dances for Russian peacekeepers.
https://youtu.be/vIONet3FkUw?t=9
https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/288691/

COVID stats

+1905 tested. +438 infected. +26 deaths. +1486 healed. 18513 active.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037834.html

Central Bank discusses economy / pandemic impact / inflation / loans

Armenia saw the largest GDP decline among EAEU trade bloc states this year. The GDP stood at $8.844 billion in the January-September period, down by 6.6% from last year.
EAEU's combined GDP shrank by 3.4% in this period. Russia -3.5%, Belarus -1.2%, Kygyz -6%, Kazakh -2.8%.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037844.html
Central Bank kept its prediction: -7% GDP in 2020.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037901.html
In 3Q20, the economy shrank by 9.1% compared to last year's period. The Services sector was hit the hardest. This trend is expected to continue in 4Q20 results because of the war and the current second wave of the pandemic.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037879.html
Central Bank made $60 million worth of financial interventions to stabilize markets. "For the first time, we announced this kind of intervention ahead of time, which set a new standard for transparency."
https://factor.am/321064.html
Central Bank predicts an increase in non-performing loans because of the pandemic, the war, and the period of uncertainty after it. Study shows that the share of bad loans could rise from 6.7% to 10%.
However, there is no significant danger to financial stability. The capital is currently sufficient to absorb potential risks.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037914.html
The inflation in November YoY was 1.6%, which is below the acceptable 4% mark. Given the expected acceleration of inflation under the expected inflationary effects of the foreign economy, the Central Bank decided to increase the refinancing rate by 1.0% to 5.25%.
Monetary position continues to remain stimulating, which in the near future will need to be gradually reduced, ensuring inflation stabilization around the target 4%.
Amid uncertainties, in the short period, there are risks of inflation deviating from the forecast, therefore the Central Bank will continuously monitor the trends and act to stabilize inflation in the medium term.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037845.html
Certain imported product prices rose in Armenia because of price hikes abroad. This trend will continue for now. In Russia, the grain prices +21%, in Georgia +11%, worldwide +34%. In Russia, sugar prices +65% and sunflower oil prices +40% [Is this why Putin was talking about capping the prices a-la-Venezuela?].
In Armenia, after a lengthy period of low egg prices, it began to climb because chicken food is getting more expensive.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037893.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203020

soldiers to receive high-tech training

Those who were wounded, and their families, will be able to receive free IT training, said the Union of Advanced Technology Enterprises. 100 registrations by January. 3D modeling, printing, web technologies, programming, cyber-security, etc.
A similar program was launched after the April battles. It helped 168 people to find jobs at Optym, Instigate Mobile, Synergy International Systems, etc. Others became tutors in ArMath to train the next generation.
The 3-6-month program will work in cooperation with the High Tech Ministry's "From Army to IT" program. Some 13,000 have applied for the Ministry program. It has 1100 active students.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037820.html

high-tech cooperation with Russia

High Tech Minister Arshakyan met Russian colleagues to discuss the work by Alyans free economic zone and Russian RAO Mars company operations. They discussed the possible expansion of innovative companies operating in the free economic zone.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037826.html

high-tech cooperation with businesses

Minister Arshakyan met Russian-Armenian entrepreneurs to discuss investments in high-tech, manufacturing of drones, the establishment of education programs to develop the high-tech military industry. Some agreements were made.
He visited Sokolovko business school in Russia to get familiarized with its innovations center. The director gave a tour. They discussed possible cooperation in Armenia.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037833.html

PayPal in Armenia WHEN?

The Economy Minister and MFA diplomats met the US ambassador Tracey to discuss US-AM relations. They thanked the US for aid to help with institutional reforms. They discussed trade, GSP, TBT, SPS programs.
Another topic was the availability of the PayPal payment platform in Armenia and the development of venture funds and capital market in Armenia.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037857.html

iGorts program: diasporan expert Onik wants to reform education

The govt has a program called iGorts that invites diasporan Armenians with education and experience to work at the govt. One participant, Onik Bayramyan from Lebanon, will implement his education reform plan in 250 schools. Titled "School management", it'll last until September 2021.
Onik has a 32-year of experience in Lebanon, the US, and the UAE, where he founded and managed several schools, held 700 seminars, retrained 1000 teachers, authored 12 books, etc.
The main task of this program is to improve the work of all school management circles with new reforms, to provide methodological and professional assistance in Armenia and Artsakh.
Onik considers it a great honor to be entrusted with the opportunity of educational reforms in the homeland. "The educational program and approach I propose are based on my experience in international education. I have personally developed the program and it is already being implemented in many schools around the world."
"Not only school principals but also deputy principals and teachers are involved in the project. The number of participating schools is more than we expected, which is a very positive sign, which once again proves that the teachers and management of our schools always want to acquire the latest educational and pedagogical strategies for quality education."
Full: https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203046

infrastructure upgrades

3,200 hectares of land in 13 settlements will be better and more efficiently irrigated after a water network renovation project subsidized by the government and Eurasian bank. 8,158 consumers will benefit.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203038
Several Hrazdan city roads will have new LED street lights that save energy. The 1.2km road between Hrazdan-Tsakhkadzor will have lighting for the first time.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203041

they run and jump

Surprise. A herd of Bezoar goats was filmed climbing a rocky hill.
https://youtu.be/hZvm7HDUHWw

Grandmaster Karen Grigoryan

... won the Barcelona chess competition with 8 out of 9 points. +15pts to his FIDE ranking. A few weeks ago the madlad won the Barbera del Valles competition.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1037851.html

you can donate to Artsakh & Armenia

www.1000plus.am (soldiers' medical help)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)

archive of older posts

Armeniapedia's archive of my daily news threads:
http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

disclaimer

All the accused are considered innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "sound" guilty.

For just over three years now, a shadowy figure known as "Q" has been posting on Chan message boards, claiming to be an insider in the Trump administration who is authorized to drop hints about what's going on "behind the scenes" as the President battles a "Deep State" of entrenched moneyed and political interests who have allegedly enslaved the American people, and maybe even the whole world. I'll assume most readers here are familiar with the QAnon movement, but if you want to see a pretty decent summary from an insider's view, here's a copypasta from a fervent Q believer on Conspo: Q anon is a military PSYOP and it has been a HUGE SUCCESS!
Throughout the last three years, Q has continually reiterated to his followers that Trump is the one man who can save America, and that his re-election is assured despite the powerful Cabal which opposes him. Q has pretty consistently focused on the inevitability of Trump and America's salvation, while the actual QAnon movement itself is more a "big tent" group and has factions who believe John F. Kennedy Jr. faked his death and is working undercover for Trump, or that Trump will soon unveil proof of alien life or an infinite energy source, or that all debt globally will soon be erased and initiate a post-scarcity society, or that Hillary Clinton and other key Dems torture small children to drain adrenochrome from their brains to give them eternal youth. But despite these wide-ranging beliefs, devotion to President Trump has been a constant, and the movement has been united in the belief that his 2020 re-election is guaranteed.
Accordingly, the events of the last week have proved problematic for the movement. I pulled up more than a dozen threads in Conspiracy discussing the fallout, with comments ranging from Q doubters saying "told you so", to former believers saying they've lost faith, to ongoing believers reassuring them that this is all part of The Plan, and they have zero doubt the President will soon take decisive action (theories vary as to what) to claim his victory. Let us dine on popcorn:

• First, There are no qanon guys. There is Q then there are anons who get the bread, who bake the bread, who leave the crumbs and who provide the sauce. A tenant of the Q movement is that we are watching a show. We are right at the moment before the big battle, the face off of good and Evil, truth and lies. True believers in Q are enjoying the show.
• But Trump HAS lost. Do you mean to say that you think he will win in court (btw they all keep getting thrown out for lack of evidence of election fraud)? If nothing significant happens, Biden will be sworn in and be president on Jan 20. Q predicted Trump would win the election and carry on with the whole plan to jail pedos (aka The Storm), arrest Hillary, etc. but that clearly can’t happen now. Also, why didn’t it happen while he had 4 years to do it? I’m not getting sidetracked into Russia, msm, and legal propaganda talk. I posted to see what people’s opinions are about still believing in Q now that Biden has been declared the new president elect.
• They're peering into their time machines.... the good part of #Qanon is there's no leadership the bad part of #Qanon is... there's no leadership I guess they're waiting for critical mass to happen first?
• If you had any sort of independent tought you would likely know the plan and its still going. I'm sure you only think of sex and violence though "trust the media". Behold the pale horse,upon it road Death. Joes the horse,we all know whose riding on that horse.
• As Q lay on his death bed, fighting the good fight for the last 60 years, he watched as an immortal Hillary Clinton harvested the rest of his adrenochrome and with his last breath, he whispered, "Trust the plan".
• Q people are not cultists They will tell you to trust the plan What does it matter? They are harmless online conspiracy theorists. Its not like they are rioting on the streets and burning down businesses. Right?
• I think Q itself is a psyop but the feelings of the people are real. Just like how BLM the organization is shady, but BLM the movement and the feelings is beautiful.
• For me it is not about believing in it or not. It is simply more information to be evaluated with all the rest. "It is a lie", people cry out. Wait, what! The link to that persons tweet is a lie, the link to news articles are lies, the link to laws, court documents, etc., all those links are lies. Don't let them divide you; United we stand, divided we fall -this too is somehow a lie. Our government is corrupt and there are some sick people in leadership (public knowledge for 100's convicted of such crimes), yet another lie. It seems that the biggest goal of this is simply to point people to look in different directions in order to see a bigger picture. That said, whether it is Trump, some psyop or something else, I personally am just looking at it as more information to be evaluated in this ocean of lies. P.S. Still think Q is shooting straighter than CNN et all.
• ... There was enough corcumstancial evidence to support it, more than some of the other theories that fly around here. Besides it gave them some hope. Now that its officially debunked (or will be as soon as Trump is thrown out) isnt the time to attack or ridicule our fellow theorists. That's just being an asshat. I garuntee you are wrong about most things you know. We all are. It's part of the life you live when you try to find the truth. We call it rabbit holes for a reason. A rabbit digs lots of holes to confuse predators. Most holes you go down are subterfuge bit you just keep trying tI'll you find a real one.
• And who would have guessed... post after post discounting QAnon now. This is a deep war. Post even asking what it will take for “you” to stop believing QAnon. I’ll tell you what, how about all the elite pedophile evidence not having happened... oh but wait it did. Emails, videos, pizzagate all the evidence that can never be erased. CIA bases around the world trafficking drugs, money and humans.
• That higher power is in control and showing the q army their leader was joshing them the whole time like borat. We’ll if the q army backed borat they would at least have some substance to their merit, but they back trump who is busy yelling at the clouds blaming everyone and everything. How can he help anyone when he’s sooo busy talking shit all day everyday. Well maybe if he starts throwing shit he might get more accomplished, But he’s kinda tooo lazy for throwing things
• We shall see...however very unlikely. People who follow Q are hard core Patriots. They’re the working class and everyone that wants change. Q was formed in 1963. Don’t kid yourself. She’s a military faction with decades of intel and experience. To say otherwise is complete ignorance. This isn’t going away until the job is done. Most people get that it isn’t fake (bots and trolls don’t count). You guys are still half asleep. You’re getting there though. The alarm clocks buzzing. Can’t wait till your all awake☺️.
• I don’t think that’s the alternative though, fema camps and mandatory vaccines. But it might be who knows. I’m not convinced I’m 100% right either. I’ve sat with the q stuff from the beginning and saw claim after claim be refuted or never come to fruition or be heavily misinterpreted. As a result I’m not trusting or putting an ounce of faith into any plan laid out by q. What positive symbolism is around him? Meeting many of the anti christs’ descriptions? Have 7 “head” quarters around the world. 666 5th ave? Checking boxes for all of the 7 sins consistently? Generally being divisive and devoid of love and empathy? I fail to see it personally but willing to accept a lot had I seem the results of what we were promised. Like why isn’t Hillary locked up? Why was Epstein allowed to do whatever happened there? Why hasn’t he torn the corruption out of the system, instead continuing to loot the country making him and his friends billions while people are struggling more than ever. I see the future you’re trying to avoid, I don’t want it either, but I don’t see that being any different with trump or Biden.

Not only did President Trump’s administration delay the transition, his administration and Congressional Republicans have launched efforts to sabotage the economy, light foreign policy fires, and cement harmful regulations before Biden takes office.
Note: This list is not exhaustive. Particularly regarding potential policy changes, it is difficult to predict which ones the White House is going to prioritize. For instance, there are 14 policy changes the White House is actively reviewing to finalize and there are 17 rule changes that have been put forward for consideration.

Economy

Senate Republicans have failed to prioritize legislation to alleviate the suffering of unemployed Americans and mitigate the fiscal crises facing state and local governments. Most recently, on Tuesday Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a proposed bipartisan coronavirus stimulus package worth $908 billion, saying he only supports up to $500 billion in new aid spending.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is putting $455 billion in unspent Cares Act funding into the agency’s General Fund - an account that the Biden administration’s Treasury Secretary will not be able to access without authorization from Congress. While the move may not be upheld as legal, it will certainly delay the Biden administration from accessing funds to assist in pandemic recovery.

“Secretary Mnuchin is engaged in economic sabotage, and trying to tie the Biden administration’s hands,” Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said in a statement after Bloomberg reported on the Treasury’s plans.

The Fed said in response that it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”
Senate Republicans are attempting to stymie the incoming administration by installing Trump’s picks to the Federal Reserve. Two weeks ago, McConnell tried to advance controversial nominee Judy Shelton but failed to gain enough votes, with both Sens. Grassley and Scott in quarantine for the coronavirus. It is possible for McConnell to bring her up for another vote. Meanwhile, while not as controversial, later this week the Senate will vote on a second Trump nominee to the Fed: Christopher Waller. If both are confirmed, Trump will have chosen six of the seven sitting governors.

Labor

In response to an executive order Trump signed in October, the Office of Management and Budget has identified 88% of its workforce as eligible to lose key job protections. The order allows employees “in confidential, policy-determining, policy-making or policy-advocating positions” to be moved into a classification called Schedule F. Once re-classified, these employees can be dismissed at will. Civil service experts and union leaders estimate that anywhere from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of federal employees can be stripped of job protections under the new order.

The Office of Personnel Management is also rushing to shuffle many of its own roughly 3,500 employees into the new category, a senior administration official said. Other agencies are pulling together lists of policy roles, too — but the budget and personnel offices volunteered to be test cases for the controversial policy, this official said…

• On the flip side, the order would also allow the Trump administration to place political appointees into career positions, bypassing the merit-based system typically required in the hiring process. “Once they are in Schedule F, former political appointees have a more permanent status than they have today. So Schedule F is a huge gift to them.”
  
• House Democrats are pressing congressional appropriators to block the order in the next spending bill they need to pass by mid-December to keep the government funded.
  

Republicans on the Senate Appropriations Committee are advocating an across-the-board pay freeze for civilian federal workers in 2021. In their draft government funding bill, the GOP did away with Trump’s proposed 1% pay increase. A group of House Democrats led by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) is pushing for a 3% increase in federal civilian pay.

Foreign policy

The White House fired Christopher Maier, the head of the Pentagon’s Defeat ISIS Task Force, and disbanded the office. A Defense Dept. statement said his duties would be transferred to offices led by Ezra Cohen-Watnick and Anthony Tata, two of the Trump loyalists installed in a recent purge of top Defense officials. The dissolution of Maier’s team came as they were answering “dozens of questions” from the Biden administration regarding terrorist threats and counterterrorism work.

...the move by the newly promoted Pentagon leadership to eliminate that central hub will almost certainly slow the flow of counterterrorism information to Biden transition aides in the coming weeks, several officials said.

At the end of last month, Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed in an alleged assassination that the country's foreign minister linked to Israel. Though no official U.S. participation has been confirmed, Trump almost immediately retweeted a statement saying the killing was a “psychological and professional blow for Iran.” The attack will likely complicate Biden’s effort to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which he has previously pledged to do.

“The Trump administration’s goal seems plain,” said Robert Malley, who leads the International Crisis Group and was a negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The administration’s plan, he said, was “to take advantage of the time remaining before it heads to the exits to solidify its legacy and make it all the more difficult for its successor to resume diplomacy with Iran and rejoin the nuclear deal.”

Iran has promised retaliation and U.S. officials are quietly monitoring intelligence, trying not to inflame an already tense situation. Just days before the assassination, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had visited Israel and other Gulf countries to discuss Iran. 11 days prior, it was reported that Trump asked advisors for options “to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks.”

After Mr. Pompeo and General Milley described the potential risks of military escalation, officials left the meeting believing a missile attack inside Iran was off the table… Trump might still be looking at ways to strike Iranian assets and allies, including militias in Iraq, officials said.

Furthermore, Israel Defense Forces have reportedly been told to prepare for the possibility the Trump will direct a military strike against Iran before leaving office.
The White House-led purge of Defense Department officials has only added to worries of rash action by Trump. Before his firing, Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned that withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Iraq will put service members’ lives at risk, alienate allies, and erode credibility. Nevertheless, Trump replaced Esper and announced 2,500 troops will leave by January, just days before Biden’s inauguration, leaving another 2,000 or so U.S. forces in place.
The Trump administration is seeking to designate the Houthis, a Yemen militia group, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Experts have panned the idea, saying it will only disrupt international aid and impede U.N. peace efforts. Harsh actions against the Houthis will also risk driving the faction further into Iran’s arms, cementing divisions in the region that Biden will have to work hard to neutralize.

“If this is rushed through, we might see trade and financial flows dry up across Yemen, the diplomatic process blown up and the Houthis deciding they need to repay the favor by increasing the tempo of attacks into Saudi Arabia while turning to Iran for more support,” said Peter Salisbury, senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group.

Related: The Trump administration is pushing to finalize a massive weapons sale to the United Arab Emirates before Biden’s inauguration, increasing the instability in the Middle East. The deal is already facing bipartisan opposition in Congress and from numerous human rights groups.
Trump is reportedly planning to take actions to lock its hardline China policies in place and “box in the Biden administration.” This includes imposing additional sanctions and trade restrictions with Chinese companies and government officials, as well as moving China hawks into senior roles in U.S. government.
Shortly after the election, Secretary State Mike Pompeo embarked on a 10-day, seven-country trip in which he antagonized the leaders of France, Turkey, and Palestine. Bloomberg described it as a trip “calculated to offend” and full of “pronouncements likely to make Biden’s life difficult.” In Paris, he prioritized meeting far-right French media before seeing government officials. In Turkey, Pompeo demanded government officials come to him in Istanbul instead of meeting respectively at the capital of Ankara. In the Israel-occupied West Bank, he visited a pro-settlement winery occupying land taken from Palestinian families.

The biggest announcement of Pompeo’s trip was that the U.S. will allow goods produced in Israeli settlements to carry a “Made in Israel” label. Moves like that will be difficult for Biden to undo, subjecting him to criticism from Republicans running for president in 2024 -- perhaps including Pompeo -- that he’s weak in his support of Israel.

The U.S. officially withdrew from the Treaty on Open Skies, a decades-old pact meant to reduce chances of open conflict with Russia by allowing unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories. Significantly, Trump ordered not just withdrawal from the treaty but also the disposal of the airplanes that are used to maintain the current mutual surveillance regime.

An American withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty would give Putin more leeway to make forays into areas like eastern Ukraine, where he'd love to keep his actions concealed from western scrutiny… By withdrawing from the Open Skies treaty, the United States would fulfill Putin's goals by effectively "driving another wedge into the NATO alliance," [Kingston Reif, director for Disarmament and Threat Reduction Policy at the Arms Control Association] says.

Environment

The Trump administration is rushing to complete regulatory actions on energy and the environment, hoping to lock in place harmful policies before Biden’s inauguration. If Republicans maintain control of the Senate, it will be difficult to repeal many of the last-minute rules under the Congressional Review Act. Some of these actions include:

• Finalizing the “Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science” proposal, which would require that scientists disclose all of their raw data, including confidential medical records, before the agency could consider an academic study’s conclusions. The measure would make it more difficult to enact new clean air and water rules because many studies detailing the links between pollution and disease rely on personal health information gathered under confidentiality agreements.
  
• Finalizing a rule to keep in place a 2012 standard on industrial soot pollution despite the research from the E.P.A.’s own scientists, who wrote last year that the existing rule contributes to about 45,000 deaths per year from respiratory diseases, and that tightening it could save about 10,000 of those lives.
  

Career E.P.A. employees are working to stymie Trump’s deregulation, hoping to hold the agency together until Biden’s inauguration.
The Trump administration has launched the process to sell oil rights in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, raising the prospect that a lease sale might happen just days before Biden's inauguration. The coastal plain region, where land could be auctioned, is considered some of the country’s last pristine wilderness, containing dozens of polar bear dens, essential migratory bird habitat, and caribou calving grounds held sacred to the Gwich’in people.

• Update: As I published this post, news broke that the sale has been scheduled for Jan. 6.

Luckily, there is a potential path for Biden to reverse the sales:

If sales do occur before Biden takes office, it would be challenging – but not impossible – for Biden to walk back leases issued. “Even if leases are issued by the Trump administration, the Biden administration could seek to withdraw the leases if it concludes they were unlawfully issued or pose too great a threat to the environment,” Grafe said.

Last month, the Trump administration finalized new National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) rules that would make it easier to cut down trees and build new roads without having to engage local communities in the process. The rule change creates oversight loopholes across the 193 million-acre national forest system, amounting to a broad “permission slip” for logging and development without taking environmental harms into account.
The Trump administration is rushing to sell the rights to a sacred Apache Indigenous area outside of Phoenix, Arizona, to a mining company this month, a full year ahead of schedule. Democratic Arizona representative Raúl Grijalva and Senator Bernie Sanders have introduced a bill calling for the land transfer to be repealed. “If the land exchange happens, it will be difficult to roll back,” Grijalva told the Guardian.
The Bureau of Land Management is poised to approve a four-lane highway through protected wildlife habitat and public lands in Utah, ignoring vocal opposition from local conservation groups. The road would cut through the Red Cliffs Desert Reserve, critical habitat for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise. Conservation groups say BLM did not seriously consider alternative, less-damaging routes.
The Trump administration moved forward on gutting a longstanding federal protection for the nation's birds, over objections from former federal officials and many scientists that billions more birds will likely perish as a result. The change could be made official within 30 days.

The wildlife service acknowledged in its findings that the rollback would have a “negative” effect on the many bird species covered by the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act, which range from hawks and eagles to seabirds, storks, songbirds and sparrows.

Last month, Michael Kuperberg was removed from his job leading the program that produces the National Climate Assessment; he is likely to be replaced with a climate change denier. Appointing a climate change skeptic to the position would facilitate the contracting of researchers who reject climate science, keeping them in place after Biden takes office in January.

Miscellaneous

Senate Republicans are rushing to confirm Trump's nominee to the Federal Communications Commission in order to create a 2-2 deadlock for the Biden FCC. On Wednesday, the Senate Commerce Committee voted to advance the nomination of Nathan Simington, a Republican in favor of greater government oversight of speech on the internet. Simington is viewed as a friend to the Trump administration’s desire to make changes to Section 230.
The Justice Department has rushed to expand possible execution methods to include electrocution and death by firing squad as they expedite a slew of scheduled executions in the final days of the Trump administration. The proposed rule cleared White House review on Nov. 6, according to the report, so it could be finalized any day.

...three inmates would be executed in the weeks leading up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, bringing the total number of inmates scheduled to die during the lame duck session to six.

Trump is considering an executive action to target birthright citizenship in his final weeks in office. According to The Hill, “The administration is aware the order would be promptly challenged in court, but officials would hope to get a ruling on whether birthright citizenship is protected under the 14th Amendment…”
The Trump administration is also racing to make it harder for skilled foreign workers to gain visas, narrowing the definition of a “specialty occupation” eligible for a skilled-worker visa under the H-1B program. A second fast-track regulation would raise the wages that employers must pay to demonstrate foreign workers will not displace Americans in the same occupation and geographic area.

I was watching Navalny documentary about Putin, every time somebody tries to oppose Putin, it resonates with Georgia as well, there is always a small hope that maybe the new leader of Russia will be a normal human who we could talk with and solve problems once and for all.
Then again, Navalny is the man who was screaming in 2008 that Russia should bomb Georgia, insulted every Georgian by calling different things, telling that Abkhazia and Samachablo are independent, definitely not a friend of Georgia, even though some Georgians have hope that he may change things, not only for Russia but for Georgia and maybe all neighbors of Russia.
I have no hope, I don't have anything against Russian people, I have lots of Russian friends, sometimes we talk about political topics, but usually, we avoid it, even though we know each other's opinions and positions. But, I have no hope that Russia as a country will change their foreign policies, Russia as a country is an enemy of Georgia and always has been, for Russia, it is unacceptable to see Georgia as an independent country, it was a problem in the 1700s, 1800s, 1900s and it continues in 2000s, I found a small fact article - On.ge. I will try to translate it and explain if it is needed.
​

1. In 1795, Agha Mohammad Khan attacked Georgia, it was provoked and funded by Russia, up to 10 000 Georgians died and around 15 000 were taken as prisoners to Iran.
2. In 1783, according to Georgievsky Treaty, Georgian Orthodox Church autocephaly was abolished, from 1864 to 1921, all services happened in the Russian language replacing Georgian. (Georgian orthodox church autocephaly survived non-religious conquerors, Turks, Persia/Iran, and Mongols, but couldn't survive our Christian "brothers")
3. In 1800, Paul I signed the proclamation on the annexation of Georgia to the Russian Empire, in 1801, it was confirmed by Alexander I, completely neglecting Georgievsky Treaty which was signed by Catherine the Great.
4. In 1810, Russia conquered and abolished the kingdom of Imereti.
5. From 1801 to 1819, Russia took all the ecclesiastical treasures of Georgia, including parts of the robe of Christ, which was stolen by the Shah and given to Russia as a gift.
6. Uprisings - 1804 to 1991
   1. 1804 - Mtiuleti uprising.
   2. 1810 - Imereti uprising.
   3. 1812 - Kakheti uprising.
   4. 1819 - Ecclesiastical uprising.
   5. 1829 - Opposition to Guria.
   6. 1832 - Conspiracy of Georgian princes again Russia.
   7. 1834 - 1859 - Fight against the occupation of Svaneti, Samurzakano, Samegrelo, and Abkhazia.
   8. 1866 - 1867 - Abkhaz uprising.
   9. 1922 - Svaneti uprising.
   10. 1941 - Anti-soviet conspiracy. In total, Russia killed over 100 000 Georgians during these events.
7. From 1801 to 1867, Russians demolished historic castles, towers, and city walls, that weren't needed to house their own garrisons.
8. From 1801 to 1900, Russians washed down millennia-old frescoes or just painted them over. (Again, even the most brutal enemies of Georgia didn't do things like these)
9. In the 19th century, Decembrists decided to deport Georgians from Georgia after the change of government in Russia.
10. After Soviet occupation in 1921, Russia ceded territories south of Georgia to Turkey.
11. During repressions from 1924 to 1941, around 270 000 Georgians were killed and over 200 000 were forced to resettle.
12. In 1962, Nikita Khrushchev intended to deport Georgians to central Asia and settle Russians on Georgian territory.
13. On April 9th of 1989, during peaceful demonstrations against USSR, Russian troops killed 20 and injured and poisoned over a thousand people with sparking gas.
14. In 1992-1993, Russia occupied Abkhazia and Samachablo, killing over 30 000 Georgians and displacing over 250 000.
15. In 2008, Russia started a full-scale attack on Georgia, expanding occupied territories and killing 174 civilians and 224 Georgian soldiers during just 3 days.

This is just a small part of things, you see 15 here, only because I couldn't find an old post which included not 15 but 200 of such events, with dates and results. As well as it is only about Georgia, we can't forget the Russian genocide of Circassians, destruction of Chechnya, the deportation of Chechens and Ingush, cutting Ingushetia in half, and creation of "North Ossetia", the war in Ukraine, which was predicted many times, but nobody did anything to prevent it. Basically killing the Polish president Lech Kaczynski. And many many many many more things...
We shouldn't care about things happening in Russia, we should solve our own internal problems and be ready for anything to happen!

Your 15-minute Tuesday report in 3836 words.

re: Armenia will grow "industrial weed" / possible CBD $$$ / industry details

Unless you have been sleeping in a camel's ear, you probably know by now that the government plans to legalize hemp farms on an industrial scale. It is not the marijuana that makes you high. The legalization is meant to bring revenues and encourage the cultivation of lands that are currently gone unused (around half of the arable lands).
Interview with Garegin Miskaryan, an enterpreneuer and the co-founder of political party "Citizen's Decision" (QO).
Question: what is technical hemp and what's your opinion about the govt's decision to legalize it?
So far we only know that it will be legalized. The process of issuing and revoking a license is important. We need to know how the sale of seeds will be done. Overall, I welcome the decision. Approximately 250,000 hectares of land are currently unused.
Growing hemp is beneficial for the soil and is a low-maintenance plant. It can withstand cold and hail. It needs 4x less water than other plants in Armenia. It doesn't need water in altitudes above 1,500m.
It was banned after the 1961 UN convention about narcotics (thanks, boomers). But today everyone talks about it and how it was the oil industry that was behind the ban (sorry boomers, thanks Exxon). Why did they lobby for the ban? Because hemp began substituting the oil-based products. Hemp was competing against oil. A global lobbying campaign was launched against hemp.
This is unrelated to marijuana, although the two are from the same [family]. Hemp has 113 unique types, with some having psychoactive substances while others having none. The industrial hemp has none.
Question: what are some uses for hemp?
To produce things that are currently produced by oil, wood, and cotton. Fuel, bio-plastics, wood, paper, clothes, shoes. Around 50,000 types of products.
Question: there are concerns that marijuana can be secretly grown disguised as industrial hemp.
In areas where industrial hemp is grown, marijuana cannot grow because the hemp flower pollination will "convert" marijuana into hemp. Anti-narcotics teams around the world use this technique to fight against marijuana; they conduct artificial pollination of the region with the use of hemp's flower.
Question: are the investors interested in growing hemp?
We only recently learned that industrial hemp contains CBD which can have a very positive effect on the human body. Israel and the US are currently studying it. A complex tech is used to extract it. Only the technical hemp can provide this. 1 Liter costs $6,000, so you could earn 10s or 100s of thousands of dollars per hectare of land (big if true). It's not an easy task, however. It needs to be placed on the market for cosmetology or pharmacy purposes, as it's done in Israel.
To earn a big revenue, we need the technology to process it. There are hundreds of types of hemp that provide oil, strings, hard string, soft string, etc. Depending on which one is allowed under the law, it can interest investors.
China is producing its army uniforms with technical hemp and cotton at a 40/60 ratio. The string from hemp does not rot, does not make you sweaty, and is immune to moth damage.
Question: what production examples are there in the world?
Donald Trump signed a decree in 2018 to allow the production of industrial hemp across the United States (yuge if true). A big boom is being anticipated. Australia, New Zealand, and many European states allow hemp. Armenia should grow the hemp in abandoned lands instead of replacing food production with it.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/205983

Parliament votes to approve a Cassations Court president

Judge Lilith Tadevosyan was nominated by her fellow judges from the Supreme Court. She went through a grilling Q&A to answer questions about her past before the secret-ballot vote. She was approved with a near-unanimous 102-1 vote.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042794.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042815.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042880.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206226

court allows Kocharyan to manage confiscated property

But he cannot sell them. He and the co-defendants are going through the March 1st trial. Additionally, he is facing large-scale bribery charges. His known assets were frozen in 2018.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042844.html

big opposition rally on February 20th

The opposition recently rejected Pashinyan's offer to hold new elections ASAP. Instead, the opposition wants their candidate to become the Prime Minister, for now.
In response, the ruling party said "Aight, then. If you don't want it then we don't want it, either. There won't be snap elections."
In response, the former regime said "the cowardly government is afraid of Kocharyan winning elections". They will hold a big rally on February 20th. The demand is the same: Pashinyan's resignation.
Various NGOs still want to see snap elections and criticized both the government and the opposition parties.
Ruling QP MP Alen Simonyan offered the former regime to publicly agree to snap elections and to withdraw Vazgen Manukyan's candidacy (he wants to become PM without elections, via a Parliament vote). "The opposition has low ratings. That's why they rejected the offer for snap elections," said Simonyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042836.html , https://factor.am/336537.html , https://youtu.be/9tfx_1HFWCc , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206223

bill to raise army contractor age limit and reduce emigration

LHK drafted a bill to raise the age limit to allow citizens up to the age of 63 to serve in the army as contractors. The idea is that when the contractor reaches the current low age limit, they often cannot find another job so they have to emigrate. With the new rules, the authors hope to preserve the experienced soldiers and to reduce emigration.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042821.html

re: soldiers' families receive university tuition subsidy

Education Ministry paid ֏305M to subsidize a smester's tuition for 1303 students who are family members of war participants.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042869.html

5 more POWs return home

A jet brought 5 more Armenian POWs from Azerbaijan, announced the Deputy PM Avinyan. It was a result of mediation by Russia.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042898.html
BHK MP Zohrabyan says the families of several missing soldiers made a trip all the way to Iran after believing fake news which claimed that Armenian soldiers had crossed the border and were located in Iran.
https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/290141/

rumors and rebuttals: Lyovik Aronyan's supercomputer fetish

The media wrote that Armenian chess champion Levon Aronyan plans to move to the United States and live there with his American(?) wife, and he will no longer represent Armenia.
Former-regime allied Telegram outlet Mediaport, which mostly circulates misinformation, found a way to spin this story against Pashinyan, too. It claimed that Aronyan is leaving because Pashinyan broke his promise of buying a supercomputer for his chess matches.
The rumor was denied by Aronyan's girlfriend. "Wow, even without a supercomputer Aronyan continues to score victories in Opera Euro Rapid tournament. Do you even hear yourselves? What computer? It's unfortunate that some people beray the devotees of their nation based on misinformation," she wrote.
The supercomputer rumor was likely built around a server story; there is one owned by the chess federation, which Aronyan had access to until 2020.
As for the earlier reports of Aronyan's possible departure to the US, Aronyan has not commented yet. Her mother criticized media outlets for calling him a traitor base on the rumors that he wants to move to the US. "The media never mentions his victories and the charity work. Only the negative stuff," she said.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206122 , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042845.html

Levon Aronyan advances to quarter finals

Opera Euro Rapid tournament. He has 8.5 out of 15 points. Currently 4th place.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042772.html

rumors & rebuttals: Yerevan mayor has resigned for the 1,000th time

I wasn't kidding when I wrote earlier that Yerevan mayor Marutyan has been "resigned" by the media once a month. Today a BHK city councilman asked Marutyan to comment on the latest media rumors about his alleged resignation.
"I don't plan to resign. I don't plan to become an ambassador to Czechia. Before Czechia, I was supposed to be the US ambassador. I was almost ready to become the ambassador to Japan," responded the drag queen Mayor sarcastically.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042892.html

rumors & rebuttals: Nikol took $211M in bribes to sell Artsakh / non-existent "migrant remittancies"

After criticizing Pashinyan for not giving away Artsakh on the 3rd day of the war, the former regime changed the rhetoric and now accuses him of giving away the lands in exchange for a bribe.
The latest claim is that $211M was transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia in 2018 (Pashinyan time), but only $7M in 2017 (Serj time). This was used to show that "Pashinyan sold the lands." A fact-checker contacted the Central Bank to learn details about those numbers.
The Central Bank said: there were no bank transfers between Armenian and Azeri subjects. The World Bank routinely publishes financial transfer numbers that aren't based on hard facts, but rather assumptions made by analysts, who come up with such numbers by taking into account the number of migrants and financial details relating to them.
According to that report, there are 87,000 migrants who went from Azerbaijan to Armenia, and 146,000 migrants who went from Armenia to Azerbaijan. They are the relocated people and not the people who make direct transfers. It is being assumed by World Bank analysts that all these migrants transfer money to their home country. In our case, this is a wrong assumption, because the "migrants" in Armenia and Azerbaijan are IDPs.
https://fip.am/14721

AM-RU-AZ officials meet to discuss regional trade unblocking

As agreed upon on January 11th, a Working Group was created between AM-RU-AZ. Today they met to discuss practical ways to resume transportation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042787.html

foreign citizens need permission before entering Artsakh

Artsakh implemented new security measures. All foreigners need to contact the Artsakh Foreign Ministry before the arrival. The list of applicants will be shared with Russian peacekeepers at the gates. The peacekeepers do not make approve/deny decisions; they are only informed about the list of authorized people.
Upon the authorization, the applicants will be notified so they can contact the Artsakh consulate in Yerevan to receive their entry permit.
This process usually takes 3-4 days but sometimes longer. Some foreigners have already used the new system to enter. Two of them faced issues because the peacekeepers weren't properly informed that they were on the authorized list. "The system is new, sorry."
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206160 , https://hetq.am/hy/article/127141

DNA analysis and search operations

Healthcare Minister: we purchased and began using the second DNA device to identify bodies on January 11th. It expedited the process by 2.5x, with 30 daily DNA sequencing. It's being done 24/7. We hope the process will complete soon. There are complicated cases when multiple tests are needed.
https://youtu.be/H1gEF1ng7as?t=913

Azeri Lieutenant Colonel and 4 others explode on a landmine in Talish

An incident happened in the occupied Talish/Mataghis region. Lt.Col Qyamil Duniev and another 4 soldiers sustained heavy wounds.
https://factor.am/336648.html

Azeri soldiers hold a protest and complain about being ignored

A group of Azeri soldiers, who received injuries during the war, held a protest about the "government ignoring them and refusing to provide benefits." Social media shares videos about daily protests in the country. "Those who fought in front lines are ignored, while those who stayed in the rear are rewarded."
Azeri media also writes about the high number of missing soldiers and that their families are kept in the dark.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042864.html

Azeri opposition decries oppression after Aliyev begins collecting "fees" for occupied territories / Product price increase / Aliyev's sister makes an appearance

Some Azeri officials, with corruption ties since the 1990s, only recently found themselves at the crosshairs of the authorities. Some of their mansions will be confiscated and placed for auction. The opposition believes Aliyev is collecting money to renovate the newly captured territories.
Unsurprisingly, some of the targeted officials are connected with Ramiz Mehdiyev, who is Aliyev's chief rival and was targeted well before the war.
Azeri media reports that the former Labor Minister Muslimov was told to pay up $1 billion for years, which would be directed not to state coffers but the so-called "black treasury", and only after it became apparent that he couldn't pay the bribe, he was arrested on January.
https://www.civilnet.am/news/2021/02/08/Ալիևը-«ազատագրված-տարածքների»-համար-փող-է-հայթայթում/418730
Aliyev had earlier criticized oligarchs and the rich for "trying to squeeze into Shushi with their businesses." Activity on the Azeri social media indicates that the authorities are having difficulty with finding the funds necessary for the renovation. People report that they were forced to donate funds to various Reconstruction Foundations.
Aliyev's sister Sevil made a rare "appearance" to make a few comments about a new documentary about his father Heydar Aliyev. The documentary talks about Heydar's "weaknesses", and names current president Ilham Aliyev as one of Heydar's weaknesses because of Ilham's past scandalous and extravagant lifestyle.
The documentary says "Heydar gave Karabakh but saved Azerbaijan, while Ilham took Karabakh but gave Azerbaijan."
The sister Sevil is unhappy that the personality cult is shifting from Heydar to Ilham. Under her social media post, people began commenting "force your brother to resign and people will install a monument dedicated to you."
https://www.lragir.am/2021/02/08/619428/
A regional Azeri opposition leader from the National Front party criticized the Azeri regime. "They promised that we will have a new Azerbaijan after the second Karabakh war. They fully kept their word by raising prices for gasoline, water, medicine, food, and practically everything. Funds for repaying foreign debt rose by 21.6%. All the debt will be paid by the Azeri public."
Aliyev plans to spend $1B to renovate the occupied territories. (what happened to the $5B that he offered to Serj and Nikol?)
https://factor.am/336642.html
Tags: #NewAzerbaijan

Dutch MPs urge the govt to recognize the Armenian Genocide

A group of Netherlands MPs, representing various parties, signed under a resolution to call for the official recognition of the Genocide. They emphasized its importance amid the report by Genocide Watch which found a threat of genocide in Artsakh during the war.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042803.html

oy, you got a loicense for that, m8?

Yerevan municipality received unprecedented 27,000 petitions relating to illegally-built structures. The staff is overloaded, sorry for the delay while processing, said Mayor Marutyan.
The authorities are currently drafting a bill to repeal the existing law that allows the legalization of illegal buildings. At the same time, the MPs want to make the legal registration process faster and cheaper. For decades, people have found bribery easier than filing construction paperwork.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042814.html

Yerevan will rebuild 12 and build 3 new kindergartens

The city received a €5M grant from the EU in Jun-2018 to help with kindergartens. As part of the programs, the city will rebuild 12 and built 3 seismic-proof kindergartens. Another 11 were finished in 2020.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042817.html

COVID stats

2269 tested. 123 infected. 293 healed. 3 deaths. 4221 active.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042790.html

Healthcare Minister: COVID vaccine selection process / double-infections / stats

Question: How was AstraZeneca selected as the primary choice for the initial phase of vaccination of the high-risk population?**
Healthcare Minister Anahit Avanesyan: a new committee was formed, tasked with examining the effectiveness, price, and availability timing of each vaccine. The committee found AstraZeneca as a good candidate.
Question: after the war, there was talk that Armenia will be pressured to buy the Russian Sputnik-V.
Minister: Armenia is free to purchase whichever vaccine it wishes but we are in discussions with all our partners. We think multiple options will be available.
Question: are we expecting another big wave?
Minister: it's hard to predict. Oct-Nov saw a big wave due to war. Thankfully, people saw how quickly the virus was spreading and chose to follow safety measures again. Today it's controllable. We have a testing requirement for foreign arrivals and combined with having control over the internal spread, we can reduce the spread by following mask/sanitizedistance rules.
Question: what % of the population had so far caught COVID?
Minister: 168,000 have tested positive. There is a methodology that shows up to twice as many people could become infected and heal without knowing. We are far away from relaxing and returning to a pre-COVID lifestyle.
Question: any double-infections?
Minister: there are some who caught it in June and were infected again recently. It still needs research to understand how the virus affects the body after double-infection, and how common double-infection can be.
Full: https://www.civilnet.am/news/2021/02/08/Հայաստանն-ազատ-է-ձեռք-բերելու-լավագույն-պատվաստանյութը․-զրույց-առողջապահության-նախարարի-հետ/418698

stats: agriculture & fishing industries

Gross output by agriculture and fishing industry +1.5% YoY, reaching ֏850M ($1.738B).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042775.html

stats: fuel prices YoY

Gasoline -9.5%. Diesel -20.2%.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042776.html

Investment Support Center

Pashinyan and the Economy Ministry discussed ways to recover the economy after the pandemic and to restore the 2019-level economic boost. The "Investment Support Center" is currently in talks with 60 investors about $1.5B worth of projects. Part of it done.
Pashinyan spoke about the need to build water dams because water will become an issue in the region in the coming years.
They discussed the improvements of standards, the atmosphere for business, and the ongoing GSP trade initiative with EU/USA/Canada/Switzerland that provides customs privileges.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042861.html

re: legal reforms to allow purchase & international shipping of drugs via the post office

The law was laxed 6 months ago to allow the international purchase and import of medication to Armenia. No written permission is necessary. To this date, 1500 residents received parcels with drugs.
It used to be prohibited. You had to carry the items on you while visiting Armenia. "The change was done at the right time when there was pandemic, the roads were closed. People can import items that they cannot find in Armenia."
You can import 5 types of medication 3 times a year. Anything more requires permission from Healthcare Ministry. The parcels go through an x-ray by the customs so don't do anything stupid.
https://youtu.be/WQz_5U5h6wQ , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042798.html

land shipping fees reduce 3x between Armenia and Russia

Armenia and Russia had signed an agreement on Sep/24/2020 to reform the post office transfers. As a result, fees dropped by 3x to-from Moscow area.
1.5x reduction between Armenian and Russian Provinces.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042838.html

update: new bridge will be built between Armenia and Georgia

While increasing the repairs done on the roads that connect to Georgia two years ago, the government had announced that a new bridge Sadakhlo-Bagratashen would be built. Now we have more details.
There will be two bridges 1 meter apart. Combined, they will have a 25m width. There will be five 32-meter segments. They'll have a water removal network and lighting.
The existing bridge will be renovated and used as a backup in the event of traffic. The construction begins in a few months.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206128

High Tech Minister Arshakyan about high-tech industry, jobs, salaries:

Despite the pandemic, the industry turnover grew +20.6% and reached ֏198B (excluding telecom). Employment grew +22%, reaching 18.7K jobs.
There are 1,228 active high-tech companies. 192 companies qualified for the exclusive special benefits that serve as incentives.
Armenian startups are considered those firms that have a research center in Armenia and created their idea in Armenia. Last year they attracted $50M in investments.
14% more taxes were collected from the industry, surpassing ֏41B. The average salary grew from ֏544K to ֏580K. The youth who plans to study in university should consider this route.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042806.html

High Tech Minister about a new retraining program for war participants:

We'll soon launch a pilot program The Path to Soldier's Success to provide career retraining for veterans. It'll help disabled soldiers to get jobs in high tech. Free classes for 18 various paths.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042834.html

High tech Minister about the new Engineering City in Yerevan:

7 companies have already applied to have an office in the City. The City allows the companies to share modern labs and work towards electronics, military industry, and other high tech production.
Politeknik University established an "electronic systems and measuring devices" office in City last year. They will prepare experts with a new education program.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/206208 , https://youtu.be/AQUHF1GlEuA?t=82

High Tech Minister about manufacturing 5 lung ventilators in Armenia:

They are ready, passed the test, and will undergo clinical trials soon. I think this is the first time we're producing such complex healthcare devices in Armenia.
They were built by an Armenian company that received licensing from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. There were 330 applicants from 42 countries. The Armenian company was among the 28 winners.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042816.html

High Tech Minister about Armenian drones with artificial intelligence target detection and artillery made in Armenia:

We don't have "Bayraktars" because it takes hundreds of millions of dollars and decades of research to build one. We have to be honest about it, otherwise, we're waiting for a miracle. Armenia needs institutional changes today.
We funded dozens of drone projects within the framework of research and development of Armenian striker and surveillance drones. Some are being finalized. We are reaching the point of being able to produce them.
The state is currently testing Armenian striker drones. Once finalized, they will undergo a military test, before entering serial production. They use artificial intelligence to select targets.
 
The radio defense mechanisms used today won't be useful against drones in the future. Drone control systems develop faster than systems that take them down. A time will come when radio-warfare won't take down the drones. We will need other tools, such as high-power electrical wave or laser-optic, or direct fire.
I can reveal some secrets today. Armenian striker drones are using artificial intelligence algorithms to identify target objects. With this, you don't need to be constantly in contact with your drone, because your connection to it can be jammed. The drone can fly and locate the target on its own.
 
Our surveillance drones, which have parameters that aren't any worse than similar ones, can be produced in Armenia now. They were used by the army during the war.
Our radar technology is being produced in Armenia for air defense. It was successfully utilized during the war and used for defending a strategic object. This field has a high priority for us. We will continue to finance the radio, optics, and laser fields.
 
Two dozen Armenian products will be presented during IDEX arms expo in Abu Dhabi to find new markets and promote exports. Then we'll host ArmHighTech defense international expo in the enlarged format in Hamalir building. Over 60 international companies will participate. Then ExpoElektronika expo will be held in Moscow.
 
The local artillery equipment and ammo production can fully satisfy our needs. This is true for artillery, grenade launchers, hand grenades, etc. Serious investments were made here. We already have a production process and a possibility to expand it in 2021. We haven't had such opportunities at least in the past 20 years.
Military industry funding increased by 2.5x since 2017:
2017: ֏1.6B
2018: ֏2.4B
2019: ֏3.8B
2020: ֏3.3B + ֏3.4B during war
2021: ֏4.6B
More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042830.html , https://factor.am/336554.html , https://factor.am/336573.html , unloads https://youtu.be/7tv1l6lIIQg , https://factor.am/336633.html , https://factor.am/336654.html
Tags: #MilitaryIndustry #ArmenianDrones #military

donations to Artsakh & recovering soldiers

www.1000plus.am (recovering soldiers & their families)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)

archive of older news

http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

disclaimer

All the accused are considered innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "sound" or "appear" guilty.

Previous Post Here
Rock the vote! Power to the people! Get out and vote. Every vote counts. And the beat goes on. And on. And on. And on. And we buy it. Hook. Line. And sinker. Don't we? But, we live in a democracy! Yep. Sure do. We vote and then they do whatever they have planned. Seriously. Guantanamo Bay? Still there. Rich getting richer? Still happening. Gain of function testing on viruses? Still happening. Nafta? Who actually voted? No. One. Big bank bailouts? No choice. Get it? The illusion of choice is all it takes to pacify the masses. That's it. Our votes are the placebo effect.
Do some of us notice? Yes. A few. For all the good that does us. So why are they able to get away with it? Surely at some point we would have noticed. Well we did notice, and they adjusted, and we're still living with the consequences. When did we notice?
The Vietnam War.
All the pictures of body bags and all the reports of the horrors of war were too much. We questioned why? The answer wasn't good enough. An economic system. Sure they tried to convince us back then that it was because human rights and liberty. Ok. Then we fast forward to present day and we trade with Vietnam. But nobody says, HEY! AREN'T THEY EVIL COMMUNISTS! No. One. Why? Because those in charge learned. All the images of war changed. Now we only see video game targets on screen. Now we only hear of all the amazing technology making war so advanced! War has become a Walt Disney production. Sanitized for the masses.
How did they do it? How? Simple. They know in advance what stimulus will have the greatest effect on us, and what effect that stimulus will be. How? Simulations. And it's been going on for a very long time.

Simulations and Scenarios

In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the more extreme candidates, but make them more ‘Pied Piper’ candidates who actually represent the mainstream of the Republican Party,” read the memo. “Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to: • Ted Cruz. • Donald Trump. • Ben Carson. We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to [take] them seriously."

Oh. Ok. So Crooked Hillary's team wanted to pump up Trump. Let me say that again, Pump Up Trump (sounds like a new sex toy, doesn't it? I'll get my people to call your people and lets make this happen. It'll be huge and people will love getting screwed by it!). And then it gets worse.

“Just like everybody, I thought this was a Bush against a Clinton, that’s all it was going to be,” said former Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle. “When I saw the first set of debates, I would turn them on in an entertainment mode to see what Donald’s going to say today. It was funny." Source Here

Trump is funny. Ha. Ha. Ha. Let's get in some of that new Reality TV show called The Political Apprentice. Right.
So is Trump a part of something nefarious? Or is he fighting the Deep State? But what if the answer is more complicated than that? What if all the peices are moved, including President's, on purpose, and with a plan?
Crazy? Surely that's just plain nonsense and there's no way that could happen, right?
Well, let me show you some additional things before the Internet of Things is in everything and we can't do anything.

They Pick, You Vote, Don't Matter. They Already Know.

What? Preposterous you say? Let's travel back to JFK and the People Machine.

Consider the strange trajectory of the Simulmatics Corporation, founded in New York City in 1959. (Simulmatics, a mash-up of ‘simulation’ and ‘automatic’, meant then what ‘artificial intelligence (AI)’ means now.) Its controversial work included simulating elections — just like that allegedly ‘pioneered’ by the now-defunct UK firm Cambridge Analytica on behalf of UK Brexit campaigners in 2015 and during Donald Trump’s US presidential election campaign in 2016. Journalists accused Trump’s fixers of using a “weaponized AI propaganda machine” capable of “nearly impenetrable voter manipulation”. New? Hardly. Simulmatics invented that in 1959. They called it the People Machine. As an American historian with an interest in politics, law and technology, I came across the story of the Simulmatics Corporation five years ago when researching an article about the polling industry. Polling was, and remains, in disarray. Now, it’s being supplanted by data science: why bother telephoning someone to ask her opinion when you can find out by tracking her online? Wondering where this began took me to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, to the unpublished papers of political scientist Ithiel de Sola Pool. Simulmatics, hired first by the US Democratic Party’s National Committee in 1959 and then by the John F. Kennedy campaign in 1960, pioneered the use of computer simulation, pattern detection and prediction in American political campaigning. The company gathered opinion-poll data from the archives of pollsters George Gallup and Elmo Roper to create a model of the US electorate.

Lasswell, whose research on communication purported to explain how ideas get into people’s heads: in short, who says what, in which channel, to whom, with what effect? During the Second World War, Lasswell studied the Nazis’ use of propaganda and psychological warfare. When those terms became unpalatable after the war ended, the field got a new name — mass-communications research. Same wine, new bottle. Like Silicon Valley itself, Simulmatics was an artefact of the cold war. It was an age obsessed with prediction, as historian Jenny Andersson showed in her brilliant 2018 book, The Future of the World. At MIT, Pool also proposed and headed Project ComCom (short for Communist Communications), funded by the US Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA). Its aim, in modern terms, was to try to detect Russian hacking — “to know how leaks, rumors, and intentional disclosures spread” as Pool described it.

Isn't that odd? Computers making predictions back in 1960. Computers analyzing human behavior in order to predict human behaviours and control the election outcome. And the scientist who it all started with came from MIT. And we wonder how all that Jeffrey Epstein money was spent.

The press called Simulmatics scientists the “What-If Men”, because their work — programming an IBM 704 — was based on endless what-if simulations. The IBM 704 was billed as the first mass-produced computer capable of doing complex mathematics. Today, this kind of work is much vaunted and lavishly funded. The 2018 Encyclopedia of Database Systems describes ‘what-if analysis’ as “a data-intensive simulation”. It refers to it as “a relatively recent discipline”. Not so. Buoyed by the buzz of Kennedy’s election, Simulmatics began an advertising blitz. Its 1961 initial stock offering set out how the company would turn prediction into profit — by gathering massive data, constructing mathematical models of behavioural processes, and using them to simulate “probable group behaviour”.

Do you really think these What-If Men are done and gone, set out to pasture like the cattle they manipulate? Really? Seriously. No. Obviously not. Or there wouldn't be such a fuss about Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. Same Crap. Different Flies. Only know there are more flies and the crap pile is bigger.

In 1963, on behalf of the Kennedy administration, Simulmatics simulated the entire economy of Venezuela, with an eye to halting the advance of socialism and communism. A larger project to undertake such work throughout Latin America, mostly designed by Pool and known as Project Camelot (Project Camelot, where have I heard that before?), became so controversial that the next president, Lyndon B. Johnson, dismantled it (sure he did). After 1965, Simulmatics conducted psychological research in Vietnam as part of a bigger project to use computers to predict revolutions. Much of this work built on earlier research by Lasswell and Pool, identifying and counting keywords, such as ‘nationalism’, in foreign-language newspapers that might indicate the likelihood of coups. Such topic-spotting is the precursor to Google Trends. Before his early death in 1984, Pool was also a key force behind the founding of the most direct descendant of Simulmatics, the MIT Media Lab. Pool’s work underlies the rules — or lack of them — that prevail on the Internet. Pool also founded the study of “social networks” (a term he coined); without it, there would be no Facebook. Pool’s experiences with student unrest at MIT — and especially with the protests against Simulmatics — informed his views on technological change and ethics. Look forward. Never look back. Source Here

Unrest and protest at MIT against Simulmatics. I guess you could call it Rage Against the Machine. Maybe we should ask Jeffery Epstein if that's a good name? He did invest a lot of money into the MIT Media lab, after all. Surely he has an opinion on it. Too bad he killed himself. Snicker.
Look forward. Never back. That sounds suspiciously like a No Regrets policy, doesn't it? The ends justify the means. Let's hurry up and get those vaccines out. We can test for them along the way. It's all good.

Decades before Facebook and Google and Cambridge Analytica and every app on your phone, Simulmatics’ founders thought of it all: they had the idea that, if they could collect enough data about enough people and write enough good code, everything, one day, might be predicted—every human mind simulated and then directed by targeted messages as unerring as missiles. For its first mission, Simulmatics aimed to win the White House back for the Democratic Party. The University of California political theorist Eugene Burdick had worked for Greenfield in 1956, but decided not to join Simulmatics. Instead, he wrote a novel about it. In “The 480,” a political thriller published in 1964, a barely disguised “Simulations Enterprises” meddles with a U.S. Presidential election. “This may or may not result in evil,” Burdick warned. “Certainly it will result in the end of politics as Americans have known it.” That same year, in “Simulacron-3,” a science-fiction novel set in the year 2034, specialists in the field of “simulectronics” build a People Machine—“a total environment simulator”—only to discover that they themselves don’t exist and are, instead, merely the ethereal, Escherian inventions of yet another People Machine. After that, Simulmatics lived on in fiction and film, an anonymous avatar. In 1973, the German filmmaker Rainer Werner Fassbinder adapted “Simulacron-3” into “World on a Wire,” a forerunner of the 1999 film “The Matrix,” in which all of humanity lives in a simulation, trapped, deluded, and dehumanized.

The Matrix? A people machine. A Total Environment Simulator. Yikes. That sounds extremely far fetched, doesn't it. Trapped. Deluded. And. Drumroll please. Dehumanized.

In 1967 and 1968, at home, Simulmatics attempted to build a race-riot-prediction machine. In 1969, after antiwar demonstrators called Pool a war criminal, the People Machine crashed; in 1970, the company filed for bankruptcy. (Most of its records were destroyed; I stumbled across what remains, in Pool’s papers, at M.I.T.) Source Here

A race riot machine that apparently failed? And look what happened nine months ago? Coincidence? Foreign power information warfare? AI training wheels? Kinda scary, ain't it? And guess what? We're not done yet.

Ithiel de Sola Pool

So the Simulmatics Corporation was responsible for this;

Sept 17, 2020 • In 1960, media reports of dark forces behind John F Kennedy’s winning presidential campaign caused what Jill Lepore calls a “national hullabaloo”. America’s new leader, it was widely reported, had clinched the victory with the help of a “secret weapon”: a super computer that crunched troves of data to profile voters, allowing Kennedy to better target his political messaging before the polls opened.

And now let's look deeper at somebody who worked at the Simulmatics Corporation, Ithiel de Sola Pool.

For all of Simulmatics’ efforts at automating prediction, it is company executive Ithiel de Sola Pool, an MIT academic with a focus on social networks, who in Lepore’s telling proves to be the most accurate prediction machine — foreseeing the “data-mad and near-totalitarian twenty-first century” that he was instrumental in helping to create. “In the coming atomised society, the information the citizen gets will arise from his own specific concerns,” he wrote in 1968, predicting a communications revolution, “customised news feeds” and the dismantling of party politics for a “politics of self, every citizen a party of one”. Source Here

That's extremely prescient. Did he predict the future or make it? What came first, the chicken or the egg? Don't matter. Don't care. Not at all. Because the end result is the same,
So what more can we find out about de Sola Pool? How about the fact that he studied Nazis and Communists? Heck, he studied totalitarianist speeches to figure out how words could carry power and influence. Over us. Overload us.
But how unethical was Pool? Well, the guy who risked everything to bring us the Pentagon Papers (the papers that proved the Gulf of Tomkins incident was a false flag) thought this: Daniel Ellsberg would later say of Pool, “I thought of him as the most corrupt social scientist I had ever met, without question.”
Not cool. Definitely. Not. Cool. Because if you naively believe that Pool’s research isn't being used by the Technocrats today, then more power to you. Believe what you want. Or should I say, believe what they want.
And who are "they"? They are the Rockefeller's and Rothschilds, the Technocrats, the World Economic Forum, the Bilderberg Group, CIA, NSA, and the Council on Foreign Relations.
Speaking of which.

At that point in his (Pool’s) career, he was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, advising several countries around the world. Pool felt that the world was underestimating the importance of communications and technical change. Source Here

Oops. Pool was a member of the CFR advising several countries around the world. Ok. Next step.

2004 • The transformation of the United States into a power able and willing to take a leading role in world affairs was not achieved solely through policy changes in Washington, DC, let alone simply by changes in the structure of world power. This chapter examines the vital role of the CFR in transforming American public opinion from ‘isolationist’ to ‘globalist’ as an important aspect of America’s rise to globalism. In this regard, the Council focused its energies to undermine and marginalise isolationism while promoting its own internationalist views as the best means to achieve the American national interest. Source Here

So if a bunch of unelected officials are officially changing policy, why do you vote? Rock the vote? Don't make me laugh. More like Don't Rock the Boat.
They started running simulations back in the sixties. Remember, Nixon was the odds on favorite to win. Kennedy was a long shot. And then, Kennedy was the President. Nixon probably wasn't happy. After all, he was part of the power structure. He went to Bohemian Grove. And then he had the rug pulled out from underneath him. And what did he end of calling Bohemian Grove attendees? A bunch of fags. Oops. Who pissed in his cornflakes?
They run simulations. Then they have different scenarios that dictate policy. Then they use the CFR, the WEF, the Rockefeller Group, and other NGO'S to adapt and shape future policy decisions to steer society. Heck. They probably even use the Mickey Mouse Club at this point.

November 21, 1971 • Of the first 82 names on a list prepared to help President Kennedy staff his State Department, 63 were Council members. Kennedy once com plained, “I'd like to have some new faces here, but all I get is the same old names.” Source Here

So a "People Machine" helped get JFK "elected" and his State Department list was mostly comprised of Council members. It's starting to look more and more like our heads of state are manipulated just like us, doesn't it? Let's jump back into the Pool one more time.

In 1965, he wrote "The Kaiser, the Tsar, and the Computer," an essay about a computer-simulated international crisis. Later, his interest in quantitative analysis and communications would contribute to computer models to study human behavior.

Computer Models aren't Playboy Centerfolds

It doesn't matter who gets voted in. They may think they're in charge. They may go along. Or they may think they're making changes. But, I guarantee you the changes they make are the changes those behind the scenes want. Even if our leaders know it or not.
No way! Thats crazy! Insane! Ok. Sure. But remember this, in a world of insanity, a sane man is always perceived as being insane. So let's dive into the DEEP END OF THE POOL and see what we can find.

October 2, 2019 • With AI, the models suddenly become more realistic. “One of the things that has changed is an acceptance that you really can model humans,” says F. LeRon Shults, director of the Center for Modeling Social Systems at the University of Agder in Norway. “Our agents are cognitively complex. They are simulated people with genders, ages and personalities. They can get married, have children, get divorced. They can get a job or get fired, they can join groups, they can die. They can have religious beliefs. They’re social in the way humans are. They interact with each other in social networks. They learn from each other, react to each other and to the environment as a whole.”

Hold on. Agent's are cognitively complex? That's scary, isn't it? And this is a very strange situation we find ourselves in, isn't it? Agents. Simulations. Viruses. Sentinels. Didn't they try and block out the sun? Ahem. Bill Gates. And I've read that originally the script didn't have humanity as batteries, but instead used humans as their RAM. In other words, we we're used for our brains ability to think. More on this in an upcoming post. Just think about it for now.

Final Thoughts

The what if men and the people machine. They model society and we see what they want us to see. Kind of like the model in the Matrix wearing the red dress. We're too busy looking for danger everywhere but where we should look. And that's a mistake. This is why we can't dismiss anything. We have to question everything.
In the previous post I said that it was called the Sentinel World Simulation. I found the article. I made a mistake. It's called the Sentient World Simulation. Words matter. Always. But I still don't think my mistake alters what's going on. We are being steered by an unseen group. And this is why China + Russia + USA are heading towards a cliff. He who controls AI controls humanity. But who controls who?
More soon.