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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

Quant here - let me tell you how good hedge funds operate these days

Not a financial advice below, just depicting wtf is going on.
Hi, I'd be lost somewhere in ether on WSB, so decided to describe it here. I'm a quant working for an investment fund (the good one, we don't short anything, just longs + hedges using other asset classes, i.e. bonds or FX hedges) but I specialize in applying artificial intelligence, such as machine learning, to get what I want. Simply put, by using algos I try to predict the future, though for research purposes only, not direct trading, so there's always somebody who checks whether things make sense and whether we should pursue generated signals.
Now, hedge funds are known for risky investments, hence they also apply risky tools, which may or may not help them make big bucks. Advanced machine learning is one of these, particularly utilized in execution algorithms which automatically do trades whenever the model generates a signal to buy or sell (or go short). However, they do not use github's "LETS PREDICT BITKOIN USING NEURAL NETWORKS" to create overfit models that lose money every minute, they rather connect ML engineering with humongous datasets to gain the upper hand. Currently, one of the best datasets you can get is stuff called "alternative data" which is NOT price data from yahoo finance nor fundamentals from morningstar, not even complex queries from Bloomberg Terminal but, for instance, pure textual data scraped in news services or social media. It gets even deeper, e.g. if you want to predict a price of oil, you scan satellite photos of oil vessels and study demand/supply by checking their numbers around the Arabic bay instead of waiting weeks for oil export/import datasets. Big hedge funds have all the money in the world to pay for this kind of data and be first in their trades without even using HFT. Nobody gives a damn about earnings data that's a quarter old, or common macro data, such as inflation, GDP or unemployment which can be even a year old. They study inflation by checking credit card spendings every goddamn day and produce daily inflation indices. By doing this, they see where things have been going and how they should change their fixed income positions to cover for any undesirable readings that you will be seeing in Bloomberg News a month later. This is by no means illegal, don't get me wrong, it's in fact smart af.
Anyway, my point is, these guys also scrape Reddit and channels like WSB. Hell, even I do that to check what's trending and what people are talking about to make a next move for my personal portfolio (I have to clear that with our compliance first, nothing "no-no" here, my fund does not use my algo whatsoever, it's private). Thus, guys from Renessaince Tech (gods of quant investing), Two Sigma or Man AHL, had known the buzz before WSB began gaining millions of new members a week ago and played along. Truth is, they are making big bucks either on one side or another, riding with WSB or shorting before them. Same thing happened before the Covid plunge in March - some quant funds using alternative data made actually fortunes on shorting the market, since they had been aware of what was going to happen even in January.
Honestly, those hedge funds that lose money on such rare occasions, are just losers without a proper quant infrastructure. I bet it will change for some of them now and they will surely use /wallstreetbets as a great source of investments. Once it becomes crowded, they will look for some other ways to make money, other channels / websites. Unfortunately, there is no way you can beat these guys, only eliminate smaller players, old-timers, who would go to hell soon anyway, with or without your "help". I'm sorry I have no better news but at least wonderful events like GME hype uncovered the crooked system and fake "free" brokers like Robinhood.
Let me know if you have any further questions, thanks for reading.
submitted by pmrwow to wallstreetbetsvip [link] [comments]

[BATTLE] Echoes across the Maghreb

CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies

Ranked #1 Think Tank in North America by Global Go To Think Tank Index
 REPORT ~ Credit to King_of_anything for formatting 

TIMELINE: Echoes across the Maghreb

Brazilian Nukes fall on Libya as chaos erupts in North Africa and the Maghreb.

May 20, 2051
WRITTEN BY
Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
"Two paths diverged in an Arabian land,
And sorry I could not travel both."
 -Clive Hamilton 
The Night of Blood
December 28th, 2050 (17:11)
On the evening of the 28th, the United Arab Republic and it's amassed armies which had remained in a stand-off against a Tunisian Loyalist Faction of the Army would finally make its move. UAR soldiers having received their marching orders, would with significant equipment and numerical advantage - move to surround the various factions of Tunisian army personnel.
Demanding "total surrender" of what was being called "disloyal" forces, the UAR would be met with gunfire in response. The opening exchanges across Tunisia would light up the night sky as the extremely close-quartered nature of the combat began to evolve.
It was the UAR's original plan, to create security cordons around the bases in question, Tunisian commanders - unwilling to be surrounded without a fight would meet UAR forces head-on. Beginning the Night of Blood, as it has been named in Tunisia.
While battle-hardened, the UAR troops ultimately found themselves facing off against a group that they had left with no other options. And as such the fighting was fierce, brutal, and overwhelming. In what has been called the "Night of Blood", casualties would begin to amass on both sides as the UAR struggled to mobilize its large quantities of armored vehicles into what was effectively, extremely dense areas of fighting.
The UAR forces hearing word across their extensive surveillance and intelligence networks throughout Tunisia, that some previously assumed UAR-loyalist soldiers which had remained off their respective bases had begun to mobilize, quickly began to mount further pressure on UAR commanding officers. Attacks by these previously unaccounted for soldiers quickly became more violent and effective as UAR administration, communication, and back-line logistics found themselves under consistently growing pressure. And with their advance against the Tunisian Army becoming bogged down due to the close-quarter fighting, UAR commanding officers, aware of the mounting casualties, chose the Russian Option.
At roughly 19:34 on December the 28th, forward-placed Jobaria-II MLRS systems, previously used to threaten the Tunisian Loyalist Army, opened fire alongside further targeted artillery strikes on the bases still putting forward a defense. The Tunisian Army without any true air defense systems, found themselves slaughtered like fish in a barrel. However as UAR forces entered the now destroyed bases, they expected the dust to have settled. Little did they know, that assumption couldn't have been further from the truth.
The Assault on Fortress Algiers
December 28th, 2051 (22:03)
Looking back, geopolitical experts had expected tensions to continue rising between the two spatting P6 members - a spreading of "proverbial wings" in both cases, as boundaries got tested between would-be great powers. However, what geopolitical experts failed to expect was a complete first-strike and assault by the UAR against the nation of Algeria and ultimately, against Brazil.
While Brazilian forces had arrived and established themselves in bases, the initial response by the UAR to simply "prepare for a potential Algerian attack while issuing stern warnings, was expected to be the climax of tensions. However, whether it was due to inexperience among the lower ranks of the UAR command structure which has continued to expand as new nations have joined - or panic among the upper-echelons, one thing became clear - the UAR had been the one to strike first.
Despite the ongoing ground combat in Tunisia, the UAR would send its eclectic collection of modern and antiquated fighters alike to strike at the heart of Algeria. UAR commanders meanwhile are reported as having been "supremely confident" in the lead-up to the strikes, trusting in "total numerical superiority" as their fighters crossed the border between Libya and Tunisia and then into Algeria.
However, leaked documents would later give insight into a Supreme Command system not becoming of a true Great Power. Documents from within the UAR command network - had revealed that the original plans had assumed Brazilian planes and equipment had either just landed, or that the UAR maintained some ability to still intercept said aircraft in transit.
Furthermore, UAR intelligence had disregarded the possibility that their actions to heavily militarize the Algerian border would have been noticed by Brazilian and Algerian military radars and intel - causing Algeria to launch its patrol-sorties over its air space and have its air-defense pre-activated. These oversights would cause perhaps the greatest UAR air-defeat in history, coming to resemble the Six-Day War.
As several hundred UAR fighter pilots flew over the Tunisian Skies expecting an unprepared foe to await them in Algeria, they instead found themselves almost immediately engaged by Algeria's aging yet functional fleet of Mig-29s and Su-30MKAs. Little did the UAR know at the time, but Brazilian air-defense radars and systems had long been activated and established providing a clear forward-warning to the patrolling Algerian aircraft.
What ensued was a chaotic first engagement over the Tunisia-Algerian border, as UAR air-defense systems not previously expecting a serious air-engagement began to rapidly activate in Tunisia despite having been hampered merely hours ago by insurgent forces. While initial casualties sustained by Algeria would be high, the tables began to turn as the UAR pushed further into Algerian controlled air space.
The mission, no longer defined by what the UAR High Command had considered "clear-cut targets", quickly devolved as the UAR's aging yet numerous fleets of F-15E Strike Eagles and original Delta Dart I begin taking the brunt of UAR losses. The UAR which found themselves striking opposition that had a significant home-field advantage was forced to fight for every inch of Algerian air space. Initial casualty estimations streaming through UAR command networks had reportedly placed total air-casualties at nearly 108 total lost manned aircraft during the opening engagements as older Algerian aircraft and a network of layered air-defense operated by Brazil (some veterans of the Alkebulan War) ate away at the UAR's numerical advantage.
However while the aging Strike Eagles and Delta Dart I's had led the initial strikes, heavily armed Delta Dart II's in increasing quantities began their missions as the Algerian air force supported by Brazil's now defending F-35A Mk7s from Ain Oussera and various wingman UCAVs were kept busy by the UAR's still large fleets of dated aircraft. The first UAR strikes would reach Ain Oussera which had put up a brave defense, yet despite valiant acts by Brazilian air-defense operators, the base itself would be struck by a series of attacks from Delta Dart IIs and the JH-9 Fighter Bomber. And while many of the successful JH-9s found themselves shot down on their return trips. It would later be revealed that the JH-9s had been shot-down by other UAR delta-darts when the JH-9s of Chinese origin had attempted to send communications to nearby Delta Dart IIs for escort back to the UAR, with the Delta Darts assuming they had just come under attack. The successful strike on Ain Oussera would still nonetheless be the first sign that the playing field was beginning to balance out.
While it wouldn't be until after the dust had settled, Brazilian command was shocked to hear that inspections of the Ain Oussera facilities had verified an earlier suspicion. The UAR had targeted Brazilian air-defense launchers, but had neglected to prioritize radar systems. And so, when Brazilian officers re-entered the ruins of Ain Oussera, a resounding laughter could be heard as several Brazilian radar systems where found to be operational while the nearby launchers had been destroyed.
Nonetheless, despite the UAR's clear numerical advantage, the casualties on the UAR's side had "leveled-out" the air war as opening engagements and Brazilian-led counter-attacks came to an end and a stalemate of continued smaller skirmishes began being fought over Algeria and Tunisia. While the UAR began preparing a larger force of primarily Delta Darts which had remained in air-bases across Northern Libya, the Brazilians began repositioning and resupplying their fatiguing air-men.
Yet Brazilian military commanders were still acutely aware that should another air-assault by the UAR of the prior magnitude be launched - the dwindling Algerian and Brazilian air forces would be unable to hold. And with the air-base at Ain Oussera having been destroyed, Brazil was left to rely on pre-planned reinforcements.
At the same time, military experts would look back and note a critical mistake, the UAR had failed to notify its sole ally in the region the Imperium of Laurentia, until the end of the opening engagements. With the Imperium engaged in Korea and Alkebulan alike, the lack of communication from the UAR would mean that Laurentia would be unable to muster any significant assistance - promising satellite support when possible, but that for the time being that support would be the end of it.
The Stand of Wath
December 29th, 2051 (04:03)
Understanding their significant numerical disadvantage, Brazilian Supreme Command was quick to call upon reinforcements from Angola even before the fall of the defenses at Ain Oussera. And by no later than 04:03 of the 29th, the first wave of F-37 and F-30X B4 passed the point of no return entering Chadian air-space nearly uncontested due to Alkebulan's own destroyed air force.
Brazilian fighters were quick to come upon what appeared to be a stray UAR E-3 flying patrols along the Libya-Chad border, a perfect opening target that fell directly into what Brazilian command had laid out in the priority matrix. However, appearances can be deceiving and as a Brazilian F-37 moved to enter into stand-off range, the UAR Military Base of Wath opened fire, destroying the Brazilian F-37 and its accompanying MQ-350.
The heavily defended Wath Base would activate all defenses as UAR Delta Darts II having resupplied in Egyptian bases due to overcrowding in Libya would stream in from the East. Soon Brazil found itself fighting a not so dissimilar battle that the UAR had just fought prior, as their numbers began to dwindle having already been stretched to the upper-ranges of combat operations and now being pressured by relatively modern Delta Darts II and aging yet functional air defense systems.
Brazilian sortie-rates from Angola would only continue to plummet as aircraft where forced to make the long-trek back to bases in Angola. Brazilian military command would later come under heavy criticism for opting to force modern and numerically superior aircraft to return to Angola for resupply, forcing them to make lengthy return trips over Akebulan airspace and stretching the limits of Brazilian logistics and aerial refueling.
Wath Base would prove to be a significant obstacle for the Brazilian sorties, as the base itself, situated in a central position along the Chad-Libyan border allows for coverage of a significant area, forcing a confrontation regardless of Brazilian desires. And with losses mounting in the Northern combat-zones and southern reinforcements proving untenable, Brazil would be forced to rush forward it's final warning.
Line in the Sand
December 29th, 2051 (06:34)
With UAR and Brazilian naval assets now in-position, staring each other down from across opposite ends of the Gibraltar Strait, two lone F-37s having taken a longer route through Niger after refueling with air tankers being increasingly pushed further South, would draw Brazil's line in the sand.
And in a matter of moments, the entire Algerian-Tunisian air war would come to a standstill as two nuclear explosions were recorded east of Sabha in the open desert. Two warning shots were made clear from Brasilia.
At the same time, a lone MTB-135 ICBM armed with a nuclear warhead was launched - although was intercepted before reaching its target, the Arabian sea.
Brazil had made clear its resolve, its line in the sand.
The Brazilian nuclear strike despite clearly targeting areas that would result in no loss of life, still sent shockwaves through the UAR high command as officers began to freeze - having never faced such a scenario. The UAR which had never maintained a public or otherwise credible nuclear escalation policy had found itself frozen - unsure of how to respond.
Brazil meanwhile, sat nervously, awaiting a response from the Imperium of Laurentia - who they had just reached out to encourage a cease-fire and negotiations. Brazil had hedged its bets, hoping that the Imperium would not retaliate despite existing defense ties with the UAR.
Ultimately, however, it wouldn't be the Imperium of Laurentia which ensured no further fighting would occur.
Two paths diverged in Arabian Lands
December 29th, 2051 (09:00)
Brazilian High Command would find itself shocked when at exactly 9 AM on the 29th, the UAR regional command in Libya would send a request for a cease-fire while elements of the UAR high-command could be seen on live-state television announcing plans for a continued assault. These conflicting messages, a continuation from the night prior - would leave Brasilia in a state of confusion as numerical superiority clearly laid in the hands of the UAR. This was especially the case now that the full might of the quantity-heavy UAR navy had been brought to bare in the Mediterranean.
However moments later Brasilia would face a tsunami of local reporting and social media activity from within the UAR. Protests had erupted throughout the Arab nation and the broader region. And while Brasilia still must determine if the local-ceasefire holds legitimacy or is itself a ruse, the wave of local reporting would point in a clear direction.
Flipping through a variety of sources, both on international news media and social media from the locations themselves, the gravity of the situation soon began to manifest itself. For Brazil, it was a welcome sight. However, in the UAR - it was anything but.
Protestors outside the UAR Embassy in Algeria had stormed the building and while the Ambassador had fled some hours ago, the broadcasts throughout Algeria showed only the burning Embassy, the UAR flag turning to ash on live television.
In Tunisia, similar protests had erupted as the violence of the Night of Blood came to light, mothers, sisters, brothers, and fathers took to the streets - protesting what they considered a "wholesale massacre" of Tunisian soldiers who had only been doing what they believed to be right. Video footage of the Jobaria-II systems being fired and hitting their targets, along with the subsequent violent imagery was bombarded across Tunisian social media platforms. The public opinion was shifting, and shifting dramatically.
In Libya and the Arabian Gulf States, similar protests against the war with Brazil took form, although being largely peaceful rallying, the message was still clear.
The UAR, a nation who's governmental policy over the past several decades has been one of "Arab Unity, brotherhood, and democracy" had done the unthinkable. They had launched first-strike attacks tantamount to an air invasion of Algeria - simply because Algeria had been hosting Brazil as part of what an official statement called "military exercises." This action only compounded what was an existing 30-40% of the Algerian population which upheld an ideology of Algerian Independence, further the population of Algeria which had been initially supportive of the UAR's non-violence approach quickly found themselves switching sides as the UAR launched what they saw as an unprovoked attack on the Algerian people.
At the same time, the UAR had in the eyes of the Tunisian public and international media - slaughtered out-gunned opposition, trapped in Tunisian bases. And despite what the confirmed casualty reports would showcase, there was nothing the UAR could do to combat the massed wave of reporting.
The UAR which had brought into union nearly the entire Arab world through peace and democracy, had by attacking Algeria outright - finally allowed the mask to slip. However, the end-result was not as clear-cut as political experts had expected. Throughout the UAR, a divide in opinions exists, as large populations throughout the UAR (regardless of home-territory) support what they see as "a necessary transformation" of UAR policy as the country squares off against "subversive foreign elements". While at the same time, large groups (primarily in Tunisia and Libya - and among some* of the gulf states) have disavowed what they see as a "fundamental breaking" of UAR policy and Arab brotherhood.
This would only be further reinforced when part of a transcript of a conversation between the Imperial Foreign Minister of Laurentia and the President of the UAR began making waves online.
"The UAR has come upon its crossroads of destiny. A choice will need to be made, and consequences should be expected as a result. But to continue ignoring the issue at hand, would by our estimates - be unwise." ~ Imperial Foreign Minister of Laurentia (Paulette Jordan)
Many have likened the UAR's attack on Algeria - to the Laurentian invasion of New Zealand, drawing parallels between Laurentia which have openly embraced its foreign policy of Socially Just Imperialism and the UAR who has - until now refrained from "aggressive action". And while Brazilian "geopolitical experts" have remained hyper-critical of the UAR on Twitter, it is not just the UAR who has faced backlash.
False Legitimacy
December 29th, 2051 (10:00)
The UAR is not alone in backlash, Brazil has ultimately faced increasing scrutiny internationally as they once again wield the power of the Atom. Most critics point out "Brazil's trigger finger" and a perceived "light attitude" towards WMDs - surpassing even the Imperium of Laurentia.
Vocal critics have also pointed out that Brazil's use of nuclear weapons in defending a nation with which they had no ties until just recently, lends continued legitimacy to China's errant use of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, it is seen as a direct erosion of International Law and the United Nations.
While Brazil had championed itself as a rebuilder of the international system following its rise as a P6 member, its actions have ultimately served only to erode this public persona.
And while a line has been drawn in the sand, it is unknown ultimately whether the UAR will respect such an ultimatum - given their continued numerical superiority.
What is clear, however, is that the battle cries will echo across the Maghreb for decades to come.

BATTLE NOTES

Thanks to King_of_anything and Gijose41 for tech/battle detail advice.
  • For UAR
    • Algerian populace does not support the UAR given the outright air invasion.
    • Tunisia population is rapidly turning against the UAR, this can be managed.
    • Libya population is extremely nervous and while support hasn't ceased - there is hesitance among the population.
    • Smaller protests throughout UAR either in favor of policy transformation or against.
    • The UAR will need to handle the ongoing crisis revolving around their contradictory foreign policy. Naïve ideas on "Democracy Building" has led to an invasion of Algeria under the belief of "public support will exist". Instead the result is a violent war.
    • There are parallels being drawn between Laurentia's transformation - and the UAR's current predicament.
    • UAR ultimately continues to have a numerical advantage, and a proximity advantage. Further strikes against the under-supplied Brazil could prove fatal. However, despite maintaining a larger air force in theatre, the UAR air force's rival regional commands and their hardware's lack of interoperability will severely limit it's ability to operate at full strength, with continued attacks potentially having unforeseen consequences.
  • For Brazil
    • International criticism is being provided over Brazil's use of nuclear weapons.
    • Force degradation has greatly reduced Brazil's ability to defend Algeria - reliant on the ongoing fractures in the UAR's westernmost provinces.
    • International criticism over Brazil as a P6 member, "eroding international systems" through the use of nukes.
    • This will not significantly hamper future interactions.
    • Popular support in Algeria - now in favor of Brazil.
  • Relevant to both parties
    • Laurentia - while pinged, did not have time to "respond" or become active in the conflict from a chronological standpoint.
CASUALTIES
BRAZILIAN LOSSES
  • Ain Oussera Deployment
    • Air Defense: All
    • Aircraft: 35% Attrition
  • Aguenar - Hadj Deployment
    • Air Defenses: 10%
    • Aircraft: 25% Attrition
  • Pointe Noire (RoC) Deployment
    • Aircraft: 39% Attrition
  • Luanda (Angola) Deployment
    • Aircraft: 31% Attrition
  • Menongue Deployment
    • Aircraft: 21% Attrition
  • Follow On: Luanda
    • Aircraft: 10% Attrition
ALGERIAN LOSSES
  • Air Defense: All
  • Su-30MKA: 63
  • Mig-29: 31
UAR LOSSES
  • Tunisia Ground Deployment
    • Infantry: 32,000 (out of 250,000)
    • Vehicle Attrition: 25%
    • Air Defenses: 39% Attrition in Tunisia/Libya
  • Tunisia/Libya Air Deployments
    • Aircraft: 50% Attrition (largely F-15s, Chinese equipment, First gen delta darts, E-3s)
TUNISIA LOSSES
  • Tunisia Infantry: 70,000 (20-40% from the strikes)
submitted by Diotoiren to worldpowers [link] [comments]

The structural/moral problem of Economics and Ahmadiyya Islam

“It should be remembered that some of the defects that are associated with economic competition are rooted in certain selfish streaks in human nature. For example, a person may set his heart upon accumulation of wealth, and this passion may shut his eyes to the suffering caused by hunger, want and penury. His sole wish may be to accumulate maximum amount of wealth. Selfishness and indifference to tyranny and oppression are the result of certain incentives, which are mentioned in the Holy Quran...” [1]
The passage quoted above shows that Mirza Basheeruddin, like any sane human, understood that the competitive, self-interest based economic system we exist in causes systemic and structural problems. It hints at the very possibility that human nature may be deeply affected by it. I plan to review the booklet I extracted it from, “The Economic System of Islam” [2]. It is part of my pursuit to discover whether religion provides a comprehensive and robust solution to the economic woes of mankind.
My quest for economic justice took me from the Quran to Hadeeths and Ahmadiyya literature, but none of it has satiated that thirst. What bothered me even more was that religion often spoke against economic injustice, yet thousands of years of religious training have caused little difference to economic injustice or attitudes towards material possessions in religious societies. As I thought over this condition, I realized that the disease is systemic. Academic research in the field is at a fledgling level, but it has already gone beyond the simplistic suggestions laid out by religion. This is a brief attempt at unpacking the moral dilemma with the prevalent economic system and the inadequacy of the solution proposed by the Ahmadiyya Muslim community. I remain interested in engaging on the topic as long as the conversation is intelligent and insightful.
The flow of this post is such: First I shall describe the relationship between economics and ethics. I’ll move on to what has been wrong with the way human beings have conducted their economic transactions throughout history. In the final sections, I shall discuss Mirza BasheerudDin Mahmood Ahmed’s proposed Islamic solutions in his booklet “The Economic System of Islam” and their inadequacy.
Ethics and Economics
Boulding [3] said:
“Adam Smith, who has strong claim to being both the Adam and the Smith of systematic economics, was a professor of moral philosophy and it was at that forge that economics was made. Even when I was a student, economics was still part of the moral sciences tripos at Cambridge University. It can claim to be a moral science, therefore, from its origin, if for no other reason” [p1]
The study of economics began as an attempt to understand exchange transactions in search for fairness. Even in the Muqaddama by Ibne Khaldun [4], much before Adam Smith, we can find a discussion on economics from both an inductive scientific approach and a concerned ethical viewpoint. This is why economists often turn towards religion to obtain some fruitful solution to end their dilemmas. However, as we shall see in this discussion, religion has not been a fruitful avenue to eradicate economic problems.
The Ethical Dilemma of Prevalent Economic Transactions
The prevalent manner of conducting economic transactions globally is through the market. Buyers and sellers are supposed to meet and agree upon an exchange value for a good or service. Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations describes the principle of survival and prosperity in this system as "uniform, constant, and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition"[WN II.iii.31]. This means that the buyer and the seller in the market would both attempt to maximize their exchange value while minimizing the cost at which they can attain it. Once the buyer reaches a maximum possible exchange value [for example, maximum desired quantity of a good at a low price], the buyer would complete their transaction and move on. Similarly when the supplier reaches maximum possible profit, they will wrap up for the day. This seems like a reasonable, rational meeting with an optimal result. However the notions of “maximum possible” vary from market to market and various issues involving information asymmetry, moral hazard, etc are endemic to this structure.
So the buyer’s objective of achieving maximum value at lowest possible cost gives rise to the possibility of a buyer surplus. Let’s call buyer surplus an unfair accumulation of wealth/value by buyers at the detriment of the supplier. This is very interesting with respect to a recent phenomena this year, where Canadian crude oil prices went negative[5]. This removes any doubt that buyers of Canadian crude oil purchasing the crude oil at negative prices would accumulate some extraordinary surplus wealth to the detriment of the crude oil producers. Clearly, this transaction seems harsh and unjust to the crude oil producers, but such is the way of the current economic system. Beyond this very obvious buyer surplus scenario, certain large buyers have enough negotiating power to twist the arms of producers into reducing prices or increasing quantities. This often happens in the Pakistan sugar market for example where sugarcane farmers deal with exploitative sugar mills. Since sugarcane can survive only so much time out in the sun before drying out and becoming useless, farmers often have to take whatever price they can get from the sugar mills. Similar occurrences can be observed in so many other economic transactions that an exhaustive list would be much beyond the scope of this post, if not impossible.
While buyers sometimes accumulate buyer surplus, large suppliers/ producers/ corporations also accumulate massive amounts of surplus wealth in their transactions. Individual consumers are less aware of the total cost incurred to produce most items. The producer is also usually free to set their own price, as should be in a free market. The trade off for the producer is that the volume of demand may decrease depending on price increase, but this problem is less prevalent with consumer goods that are deemed essential and with consumer groups that have little to no bargaining power. This can be illustrated with the price surges for life-saving personal protective equipment in the on-going corona virus pandemic [6]. However, even if one looks at consumer goods in a supermarket, the typical buyer has no option to bargain or negotiate the price of the goods they are purchasing. It is the producer’s prerogative to demand whatever price they wish for the products they produce, and the buyer’s prerogative to not purchase said product, such is the nature of all market transactions.
Market transactions are based on negotiating power. Negotiating power in turn depends on market conditions, market structure and the importance of said transaction to the buyer or seller. Those who have more bargaining power end up with more surplus and wealth accumulation.
Economic literature has discussed market structure problems at length. For example problems arising from competition concerns like Monopolies, Oligopolies, etc are extensively covered. Policy measures emphasized in academic literature include the role of governments to monitor and foster competition in industry. The literature realizes that the economic system itself cannot fight back monopolies or oligopolies because of the inherent nature of incentivizing surplus accumulation. Hence, external forces are required to repair faults in the system.
Market based economic systems ends in injustice through selfish pursuit of surplus value/wealth. Can it be overcome by good intentions? Definitely not. Consumers who are willing to give up their surplus in favor of producers end up beggars and producers who are willing to give up their surplus in favor of consumers end up bankrupt. One cannot be an infinitely benevolent being, or benevolent being at all in this system without disincentive. One has to accumulate surplus in order to obtain any savings at all, or to be charitable. Living a life of luxury or comfort without obtaining any surplus is an impossibility.
There can be economic transactions where the consumer surplus is equal to the producer surplus, however, the economic system does not motivate this balance. It is the hope of the economists that such a balance happens somehow. Sometimes they hedge their bets on the trickle down of surplus, sometimes on government intervention. What is clear on all ends is that the system is broken and a reliable, consistent and self-sustaining fix is so far beyond our reach.
The prosperity and even the survival of human beings in this economic system requires acts of heartless selfish pursuit. Every person for themselves. Now that we are clear on the dilemma and conflict in the economic arena, let’s focus on what religion, Ahmadiyyat in particular, has to offer us.
Ahmadiyya Economic system
For no reason other than convenience, I shall be quoting passages directly if I find some argument interesting and mentioning headings where I wish to attack the entire concept. As mentioned before it is all from the 2nd Caliph of Ahmadiyya’s lecture converted into a booklet. I could not find any other authoritative text on Ahmadiyya Economics. At times I compare the assumptions of the 2nd Caliph of Ahmadiyya with empirical economics literature such as an extensive review study by Basedau, Gobien and Prediger in 2018 was published in the Journal of Economic Surveys which is a high ranked academic research journal.[7]
Nature of Economic Agent in Ahmadiyya Economics
Mirza Bashiruddin Mahmood Ahmed, Second Caliph of Ahmadi Muslims, said in his booklet The Economic System of Islam:
“When a person is made responsible for a specific task, or is entrusted with something of value, he is answerable to the one who entrusted him with those responsibilities; but a person who regards himself free and unanswerable to anyone would be inclined to do whatever he pleases. This verse of the Holy Quran is a reminder that all worldly governments, kingdoms and powers are under God’s command and are granted to human beings only as a trust. Man must not consider himself unaccountable just because he has the power and ownership of material wealth that he is given in this world. He may appear to have authority and ownership on the surface, but in truth he is only holding a trust from God. Human beings are answerable before God that they rightfully discharged the trust that was reposed in them.”[8]
This passage starts with the assumption that humanity is inherently bad, that perhaps the natural state of being for people is to lie, cheat, steal, etcetera. Supervision is alluded to as a possible suppressor of dishonesty, however, we know that no matter how many bosses or accountability commissions are made they are unable to eliminate corruption completely. This is in contrast with the argument that human beings are inherently good, but have to adapt dishonesty, corruption etcetera because the economic system they survive in incentivizes such practices.
Basedau et al. [7] found no study conducted on atheism compared to religion, but in comparison between religions Protestant and Asian ethno-religions fared well with regards to corruption. Catholicism, Islam etcetera correlated with higher corruption levels.
I’ll try to skip the rest of faith correlating with economic practices for the sake of brevity. Readers can confer with Basedau et al. [7] or any other academic review of the topic for scientific facts. One interesting finding from Basedau et al. [7]’s review of numerous studies is that high prevalence of religion in a society correlates with high income inequality. The review presents various causes for this as well.
Types of Economies
Mirza BasheerudDin Mahmood Ahmed moves onto a description of types of economic systems in his opinion:
“These are the three basic economic systems that exist in the world today. The first system is not bound by any definite laws or rules; the second system is nationalistic in its approach, while the third is driven by individualism.” [9]
This goes on to “As I have already mentioned, Islam does not recognize a system that is not based on law. Instead, Islam presents a path that is a combination of the other two systems (nationalistic and individualistic).” [10]
So Mirza Basheerud Din rejects the first type that he stylized, and proposes Ahmadiyya economics based on the remaining 2 types of economic systems.
Role of Charity
“We are thus taught that if we are holding some unfortunate people, whom the vicissitudes of life had deprived them of the power to stand on their own feet, they should be given the benefit of a portion of our resources, which really belong to God and in which every creature of God holds a share… Firstly, according to Islam, the world’s wealth belongs to all mankind. Secondly, the real master of all wealth is only God Almighty. Man is therefore not free to dispose of his wealth in any way he deems fit; what he can do is circumscribed by God’s prescribed limits.” [11]

“Everyone should collectively work to improve the nation’s well-being and support each other in that effort. The next stage is that, despite all the good works, they are still left feeling that nothing has been done. And in that spirit, they must continue to remind one’s fellow beings the importance of helping and caring for the weak and the poor and continue such exhortations up to the last breath of their lives.”[12]
This is in reference with the system of Zakat and alms. It does not provide a coherent mechanism to attack prevalent economic exchanges in any practical manner as I discuss later.
Exploitation of Slaves
“Role Played by Slave Labour in World Economy”[13]
There are parts of this section that I wholeheartedly agree with. Yes, exploitation of slaves has been a competitive advantage for the economies who employed slave labor. This can simply be explained as a surplus where the slave owner had all the negotiating power and the slave had little to no negotiating power. Hence, the slave owner was able to get away with most of the surplus, most of the time.
I am skipping over the discussion on enslaving prisoners of wars because that seems counterproductive to the main thesis of my concerns. Hence, I do not agree with enslaving prisoners of wars, but that’s a discussion for another day.
An outline of the economic system
“The Islamic Economic System… Upholding Individual Enterprise… Voluntary Efforts to Rectify Inequities… Wealth Created by God for the Benefit of All… Balance Between Individual Freedom and State Intervention” [14]
This part outlines the vision of an ideal Islamic economy by Mirza Basheerud Din. In no way does his vision radically rethink the exchange relationships between market participants. The survival of market participants remains deeply dependent on self-interest based surplus accumulation. Surplus accumulation that can be termed an immoral pursuit due to the inherent exploitative aspects of it.
The reader may say that he is suggesting voluntary efforts as a balance between individual freedom and state intervention. This is entirely inadequate. The problem is not the amount of donations. The fact that charitable donations have to be made in the first place shows that someone in a better negotiating position was able to deny someone else fair compensation. The entire charitable pursuit, in this way, causes moral dilemmas, while Mirza Basheerud Din wishes to fix the system in this manner.
Measures for wealth redistribution
“It is clear that a person who follows the Islamic teachings would shun above motivations. Any wealth that he might accumulate would be devoted to noble causes that help to bridge the gulf between the rich and the poor, instead of widening it. Such a person has little reason to covet wealth for selfish ends. A man’s desire to earn money arises out of basically three impulses.
1) To meet his own legitimate needs;
2) Beyond meeting the personal needs, he might desire money with a view to helping mankind and earning God’s pleasure; or
3) He might seek money to fulfil vain desires described above i.e., personal pleasure, self-indulgence, pride or plain greed.
It goes without saying that only persons driven by the third impulse would stoop to unfair and foul means, and would exploit others. This situation would be avoided if the first two reasons for earning money were dominant. Anyone who earns just enough to satisfy his own needs or who spends the excess wealth for helping others and other good deeds would not hurt other Individuals or his nation in general.” [15]
I had high hopes from this section given the title. However, there are a few key problems with this passage. Religion has seldom made much of a difference in this. The Ahmadiyya Jamaat, for example, does not dedicate all it’s funds to bridge the gulf between the rich and the poor. If we suppose that the Ahmadis were to use all their funds to gulf this divide, even then it is impossible to do so. This reminds one of the story of Mansa Musa. Mansa Musa was a very rich King. He decided to perform pilgrimage to Makkah. On the way he distributed alms most generously. This had the opposite effect from what he probably intended as gold prices crashed in the region causing inflation of all other commodities [16]. On his way back from pilgrimage, Mansa Musa saw the plight of people due to his charity and tried to ameliorate the situation by attempting to borrow back the gold he had spent as alms. Nevertheless, the region continued to suffer for a decade.
I am only using the case of Mansa Musa because it is so vivid. In a number of cases, charitable contribution can create more problems than it solves.
Concept of Riba/Interest in Ahmadiyya
“Prohibition of Interest (Riba)… Islam adopts a rather broader definition of interest. According to the Islamic definition, certain transactions, which are generally not considered to fall within its purview, nevertheless fall within its domain and are therefore prohibited. Islam defines interest as any transaction where the profit is guaranteed. Therefore all trusts, [local monopolistic arrangements] which are set up to guarantee profit by destroying competition, are to be considered un-Islamic. For example, suppose fifteen or twenty large businesses in a country got together and formed a monopoly that fixed prices and restricted competition. Then a commodity that sells for (say) two rupees in a competitive market could sell at an artificial monopolistic price of (say) five rupees. Since everyone would be colluding to sell the commodity at five rupees, consumers would not be able to shop around for the best price and would have no choice but to pay the higher price.” [17]
Some of the transactions where profit is guaranteed, but are obviously overlooked by Mirza BasheerudDin because he is looking at interest as beneficial to rich people only, include salaries due for employees. Employees are not generally hired with a flexible profit contract. Even piece rate workers are guaranteed a revenue without material cost for finishing a piece. Lawyers are often given retainers. Land owners often obtain rent. Rental properties were not haram in Muhammad’s time, so it would be interesting to inquire Mirza BasheerudDin how he reached this unique definition of interest. This is perhaps the most radical aspect of his lecture, and yet it seems hurried.
It is clear that he believes in a free market where bargaining is possible. What he seems to have missed out is that collusion can happen to protect weaker market participants from more powerful participants. Take labor unions for example, their purpose is to protect the weak laborer from the exploitative tendencies of large industries. However, according to Mirza BasheerudDin’s theory they would be doing haram by raising and fixing the price of labor for the large industry.
In the initial part of the passage Mirza BasheerudDin mentioned:
“If one were to examine the list of the world’s richest men, it would be found that it was made up of mostly people who owe their rise to interest. They start with a small amount of capital but soon establish a reputation of creditworthiness, which allows them to leverage their small personal capital many times over via bank borrowing and overdrafts, thereby becoming super-rich in just a few years.”[17]
This is most interesting because Islam does not forbid debt. If the Islamic debt system of Qarz-e-Hasana was used by a person of means, or some sort of crowdfunded qarz-e-hasana was employed, one could get away with massive growth while paying no interest on it.
Similarly, ability to obtain properties and equipment on lease/rent acts in a similar fashion to what Mirza BasheerudDin mentions about interest. However, we do not see him denouncing any of that.
Inheritence as wealth redistribution
“Islamic Law of Inheritance”[18]
Somehow Mirza BasheerudDin thinks that the Islamic method of distribution of inheritance leads to more equitable wealth distribution. His arguments here do not make any sense to me. If a person has only one child [as family sizes in more developed and economically prosperous nations are getting lower], how does Islamic Law of inheritance help wealth redistribution? Perhaps he has the idea of more than 5 children per family that used to be the case in the subcontinent a century ago.
Even though the argument doesn’t appeal to reason, it is better to provide evidence as well. So while Mirza BasheerudDin says:
The reason for the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few rich people in Europe and the United States is that, under the British law, the eldest son can inherit the entire property, and in the United States, a person may pass on his entire wealth to just a single son. Thus, other children, parents, brothers and sisters, or the spouse may be left with nothing.
We have the example of the Rockefeller family that didn’t deny their estate to any offspring. They are united and super rich now in their seventh generation [23].
Governments should pay clergy
“Responsibilities of the Government… Therefore, dhil-qurba refers to people dedicated to the service of religion and according to Islam this class of people has a definite claim on the State’s resources.”[19]
It is obvious from here that Mirza BasheerudDin wants countries to support his cause, but what’s the economic benefit of it? The passage is silent on that.
Zakat
“Islam introduced the system of zakat, which is a 2.5% annual tax on wealth that is held in the form of gold, silver, currency or other assets for a period of more than a year. The proceeds of this tax are used to promote welfare of the poor.”[18]
One can group this with other measures of tax based wealth redistribution. This phenomena has been studied extensively. A recent research paper by Nathaniel Hendren from Harvard University shows the welfare loss due to such measures [20].
Interestingly, whereas the Ahmadiyya economic model argues for greater individual freedoms balanced by taxation for redistribution, the most successful model today is the Nordic economic model which has a greater share of government owned economic activity. Particularly in Norway, the state owns 37% of all shares on the Oslo stock market [21]. The results are so vivid that amongst all OECD nations, only Norway has a young generation which is getting richer [22].
The remaining part of the lecture argues against Soviet communism, so I’ll avoid that.
Conclusion
We depend on economic transactions for our survival and our life. A system that teaches mistrust, self-interest and surplus accumulation cannot possibly influence people towards pious and noble pursuits. However, we see no denunciation of the system or proposal for an alternate system in the writing. All we see are small fixes here and there which do not create a coherent sustainable solution.
This leaves one to wonder about how seriously religion has considered the moral aspects of the prevalent economic system. Perhaps religion has become a tool for amassing surplus without putting in any economic effort as hinted in [19]. Whatever the case, it is clear that true nobility cannot be achieved as a participant of an economic system where one party must exploit the other to obtain surplus for survival. It is also clear that religion offers no help in overcoming this moral dilemma.
Edit 6th January, 2021: Included formatting as quotation to improve readability.
Citations
[1] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/islamic-economic-system/
[2] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/
[3] Boulding, K. E. (1969). Economics as a moral science. The American Economic Review, 59(1), 1-12.
[4] Ibn Khaldun (1967) Muqaddimah – An Introduction to History, translated from Arabic by Franz Rozenthal, Bollingen Series XLIII, 1980 print, Vol. II, Princeton University Press
[5] https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/04/21/how-crude-oil-prices-go-negative-and-why-it-could-get-very-ugly-for-alberta.html
[6] https://www.mcknights.com/news/analysis-ppe-costs-increase-over-1000-during-covid-19-crisis/
[7] Basedau, M., Gobien, S., & Prediger, S. (2018). The Multidimensional Effects of Religion on Socioeconomic Development: A Review of the Empirical Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), 1106-1133.
[8] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/sovereignty-allah-implications-authority/
[9] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/types-economic-systems-world/
[10] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/teachings-islam-establishing-just-society/
[11] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/teachings-islam-establishing-just-society/islamic-injunction-use-wealth/
[12] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/teachings-islam-establishing-just-society/exhortations-uplifting-poor-necessity-national-progress/
[13] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/measures-end-institution-slavery/
[14] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/islamic-economic-system/
[15] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/islamic-economic-system/control-incentives-accumulation-wealth/
[16] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47379458
[17] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/barriers-illegitimate-accumulation-wealth-islam/
[18] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/measures-adopted-shariah-achieve-just-economic-system/
[19] https://www.alislam.org/book/economic-system-islam/responsibilities-of-government/
[20] Hendren, N. (2016). The policy elasticity. Tax Policy and the Economy, 30(1), 51-89.
[21] https://www.economist.com/special-report/2013/01/31/the-rich-cousin
[22] https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180709-unlike-most-millennials-norways-are-rich
[23] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/26/david-rockefeller-jr-shares-4-secrets-to-wealth-and-family.html
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Gulf Sands Shift as Anchors of Regional Security Loosen

by James M. Dorsey | Jun 2, 2020
This story was first published in Inside Arabia
A podcast version of this story is available on Soundcloud, Itunes, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, Spreaker, Pocket Casts, Tumblr, Podbean, Audecibel, Patreon and Castbox.
Rejiggering security arrangements in the Gulf may be a more pressing issue than meets the eye. That is not good news for the Gulf states. It is also bad news for China, which could see the rug pulled out from under its studious effort to remain on the sidelines of the Middle East’s myriad conflicts.
China and the Gulf states are in the same boat as they grapple with uncertainty about regional security against the backdrop of doubts about the United States’ commitment to the region.
Like the Gulf states, China has long relied on the US defense umbrella to ensure the security of the flow of energy and other goods through waters surrounding the Gulf in what the United States has termed free-riding.
In anticipation of the day when China can no longer depend on security provided by the United States free of charge, China has gradually adjusted its defense strategy and built its first foreign military facility in Djibouti facing the Gulf from the Horn of Africa.
With the People’s Liberation Army Navy tasked with protecting China’s sea lines of communication and safeguarding its overseas interests, strategic planners have signaled that Djibouti is a first step in the likely establishment of further bases that would allow it to project long-range capability and shorten the time needed to resupply.
But Chinese strategic planners and their Gulf counterparts may part ways when it comes to what would be acceptable geopolitical parameters for a rejuvenated regional security architecture.
A rejiggered architecture would likely embed rather than exclude the US defense umbrella primarily designed to protect conservative energy-rich monarchies against Iran and counter militancy.
In contrast to China and Russia, Gulf states, as a matter of principle, favor identifying Iran as the enemy and have cold shouldered proposals for a non-aggression agreement.
But for that they need the United States to be a reliable partner that would unconditionally come to their defense at whatever cost.
For its part, China goes to great lengths to avoid being sucked into the Middle East’s myriad conflicts. Adopting a different approach, Russia has put forward a plan for a multilateral security structure based on a non-aggression understanding that would include Iran.
No doubt, China, unlike Russia, wants to postpone the moment in which it has no choice but to become involved in Gulf security. However, China could find itself under pressure sooner rather than later depending on how Gulf perceptions of risk in the continued reliance on the United States evolve.
One factor that could propel things would be a change of guard in the White House as a result of the US election in November.
Democratic presumptive candidate Joe Biden, as president, may strike a more internationalist tone than Donald J. Trump, though a Biden administration’s relations with Saudi Arabia could prove to be more strained. Similarly, Mr. Biden’s focus, like that of Mr. Trump, is likely to be China rather than the Middle East.
By the same token, China’s appraisal of its ability to rely on the US in the Gulf could change depending on how mounting tensions with the US and potential decoupling of the world’s two largest economies unfolds.
China’s increased security engagement in Central Asia may well be an indication of how it hopes to proceed in the Gulf and the broader Middle East. China has stepped up joint military exercises with various Central Asian nations while its share of the Central Asian arms market has increased from 1.5 percent in 2014 to 18 percent today.
Founded in 2001 as a Central Asian security grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has expanded its relationships in South Asia and the Caucasus, and admitted Iran as an observer.
Referring to China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that seeks to link the Eurasian landmass to the People’s Republic, China and Central Asia scholar Raffaello Pantucci explained that: “China is expanding its security role in Central Asia to protect its interests in the region and is increasingly unwilling to abrogate security entirely to either local security forces or Russia.”
“By doing so, Beijing is demonstrating an approach that could be read as a blueprint for how China might advance its security relations in other BRI countries,” Mr. Pantucci wrote.
Central Asia may find it easier than the Gulf to accommodate the Chinese approach.
The problem for most of the Gulf states is that taking Chinese and Russian concerns into account in any new security arrangement would have to entail paradigm shifts in their attitudes toward Iran.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – which has recently made overtures to Iran, insist that any real détente has to involve a halt to Iranian support for proxies in various Middle Eastern countries as well as a return to a renegotiated agreement that would curb not only the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program but also its development of ballistic missiles.
Caught between the rock of perceived US unreliability and the hard place of Chinese and Russian geopolitical imperatives, smaller Gulf states, including the UAE, in contrast to Saudi Arabia, are hedging their bets by cautiously reaching out to Iran in different ways.
They hope that the overtures will take them out of the firing line should either Iran or the United States, by accident or deliberately, heighten tensions and/or spark a wider military confrontation.
To be sure, various Gulf states have different calculations. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have adopted the most hardline position toward Iran. Oman and Qatar have long maintained normal relations, while the UAE and Kuwait have made limited overtures.
In the short run, Gulf states’ realization of China and Russia’s parameters could persuade them to maintain their levels of expenditure on weapons acquisitions. And, in the case of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to pursue the development of a domestic defense industry, despite the economic fallout of the pandemic, the drop of oil and gas prices, and the shrinking of energy markets.
Probably, so will recent Iranian military advances. Iran last week publicly displayed what is believed to be an unmanned underwater vehicle that would allow the Revolutionary Guards’ navy to project greater power – because of its long-range, better integrated weapons systems – and more efficiently lay underwater mines.
The vehicle put Iran in an even more elite club than the one it joined in April when it successfully launched a military satellite, a capability only a dozen countries have. When it comes to unmanned underwater vehicles, Iran rubs shoulder with only three countries: the United States, Britain, and China.
Iran’s advances serve two purposes: they highlight the failure of the United States’ two-year-old sanctions-driven maximum pressure campaign to force Iran’s economy on its knees, and, together with massive US arms sales to Gulf countries, they fuel a regional arms race.
To be sure, Russia and China benefit from the race to a limited degree too.
In the ultimate analysis, however, the race could contribute to heightened tensions that risk putting one more nail in the coffin of a US-dominated regional architecture. That in turn could force external powers like China to engage whether they want to or not.
“China is quickly learning that you can’t trade and invest in an unstable place like the Middle East if you don’t have the means to protect your interests,” said Israeli journalist David Rosenberg. “Where business executives come, warships and commando units follow, and they will follow big.”
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. He is also an adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and co-director of the University of Wuerzburg’s Institute of Fan Culture in Germany
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Soleimani’s death opens a door to alternative security arrangements in the Gulf

By James M. Dorsey
A podcast version of this story is available on Soundcloud, Itunes, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, Spreaker, Pocket Casts, Tumblr, Podbean, Audecibel, Patreon and Castbox.
The US killing of Iranian general Qassim Soleimani has further opened the door to a potential restructuring of the Gulf’s security architecture.
In line with an Iranian plan launched at last year’s United Nations General Assembly by president Hassan Rouhani that calls for a security architecture that would exclude external forces, cooler heads in Tehran argue that an expulsion of all US troops from the Middle East would constitute revenge for Mr. Soleimani’s assassination.
While it likely would be a drawn-out process, Iraq’s parliament took a first step by unanimously asking the government in the absence of Kurdish and Sunni Muslim deputies to expel US forces from the country.
Ultimately, Iran may at best get only part of its wants.
Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has dialled back his initial support of parliament’s demand, saying that any withdrawal would involve only US combat forces and not training and logistical support for the Iraqi military.
Similarly, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar are unlikely to expel US forces and bases.
That does not mean that the foundation for the Gulf’s security architecture, grounded in a US defense umbrella primarily to shield the region’s energy-rich monarchies from potential Iranian aggression, is not shifting.
In fact, it was already shifting prior to the killing of Mr. Soleimani.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE that long supported US President Donald J. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, involving the US withdrawal from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program and the imposition of harsh economic sanctions, began hedging their bets in the second half of last year.
The Gulf may have on an emotive level privately celebrated the death of Mr. Soleimani, an architect of Iran’s use of proxies across the Middle East, but in a more rational analysis fear that his killing may have opened a Pandora’s box that could lead the region to all-out war.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE called for de-escalation in the wake of the killing as Khalid bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy defense minister and brother of crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, travelled to Washington and London to urge restraint.
Ironically, the killing of Mr. Soleimani rather than strategically pleasing Gulf leaders may have reinforced concerns that they no longer can fully rely on the United States as their sole security guarantor.
If the United States’ refusal last year to respond forcefully to a string of Iranian provocations sparked Gulf doubts, Mr. Soleimani’s killing raises the spectre of US overreach when it does.
Mr. Trump’s threat to attack Iranian cultural sites, despite animosity towards Iran and anti-Shiite sentiment in some Gulf quarters, is likely to have reinforced that concern.
The Gulf states’ hedging of their bets will not make Mr. Rouhani’s proposal any more attractive but it has already led to direct and indirect diplomacy by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce tension with Iran.
Mr. Soleimani was killed on the morning that he reportedly was to deliver to Mr. Abdul Mahdi, the Iraqi prime minister, a Iranian response to a Saudi initiative to defuse tension.
While Mr. Rouhani’s proposal is a non-starter, it contains one element that could prove to have legs: some form of non-aggression agreement or understanding between the Gulf states and Iran.
The notion of an understanding on non-aggression would stroke with a Russian proposal for an alternative multilateral arrangement that calls for a regional security conference along the lines of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE.
Unlike Mr. Rouhani’s proposition, the Russian proposal would involve multiple external powers, including Russia, China and India, but, in the knowledge that no country can as of now replace the United States militarily, be centred on US military muscle.
The proposal, endorsed by China, potentially could cater to Mr. Trump’s demand for burden-sharing and financial compensation for a continued US role in security across the globe.
Russian officials and surrogates for the Kremlin stress that the proposal seeks to capitalize on the United States’ mushrooming predicament in the Middle East but does not mean that Russia was willing to make the kind of commitment that would position it as an alternative to the US.
Similarly, the nature of China’s participation in last month’s first-ever joint Chinese-Russian-Iranian naval exercise signalled that closer Chinese military ties with a host of Middle Eastern nations did not translate into Chinese aspirations for a greater role in regional security any time soon.
China contributed elements of its anti-piracy fleet that were already in Somali waters to protect commercial vessels as well as peacekeeping and humanitarian relief personnel rather than combat troops.
As they hedge their bets, Gulf states may want to take their time in thinking about a more multilateral security arrangement that includes but goes beyond the United States.
The Gulf states’ problem is that fast-moving and to some degree unpredictable developments in the Middle East could change their calculus.
That is also true for Russia and particularly China that has long maintained that its security interests in the region, based on the ability to freeride on the US defense umbrella, were best served by mutually beneficial economic and trade relations.
Increasingly that approach could prove unsustainable.
Said Jiang Xudong, a Middle East scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences: “Economic investment will not solve all other problems when there are religious and ethnic conflicts.”
Mr. Xudong could just as well have included power struggles and regional rivalries in his analysis.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, an adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and co-director of the University of Wuerzburg’s Institute of Fan Culture
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Leon Rooke - Two Stories

These stories both Collected in Sing Me No Love Songs, I'll Say You no Prayers: Selected Stories (The Ecco Press, 1984), as well as Hitting the Charts (Biblioasis, 2006):

Why Agnes Left

The woman with no hair has gone home. The body stocking woman has gone home. Agnes has gone. Everyone has gone home and so should I.
You should go home, my hostess Sulvie tells me. What are you waiting for? Everyone left hours ago, and Zephyr and I would like to get some sleep.
Zephyr adds her two cents.
The place is all cleaned up, no one would ever guess that a few short hours ago twenty-seven women were here talking, laughing, having a gay old time.
The place looks empty. Its emptiness has permeated my bones, brought me close to tears. It reminds me of a play on closing night when all the beautiful walls come down. Vanishing life. There and then gone.
Zephyr's two cents amount to this:
You should go home, Mr Banks. We don't know you all this well and in any event Sulvie and I don't allow men to stay overnight.
It isn't that so much, says Sulvie. We have no place to put you. The sofa isn't at all comfortable. You'd catch a cold sleeping on the floor.
Yes, says Zephyr. You'll have to go. Please leave.
It's true, I really must. I have no right to inflict my presence on these two no-nonsense, straightforward women.
Zephyr stands with my overcoat held high to receive my arms. Sulvie extends my hat. I slip my arms into the coat and button up. I put on the hat. A moment later, however -- I can't explain it -- I am again sitting down.
One more cigarette, I say. Let me finish this and I promise I'll get out of your hair.
Zephyr explodes. God! -- and stalks off to slam a door.
Sulvie, too, is no longer content to reason with me. Get out! she all but screams. My patience is exhausted! Get out this minute!
I drag on the cigarette. They have removed all the ashtrays and I have to thump my ashes into the palm of my hand.
It was a lovely party, I tell her. One of the best I've been to in years.
She smoulders.
I'm amazed that you two could so quickly clean up the place. What a lot of mess!
She mushes a pillow into a chair. I'm not talking to you, Mr Banks. We have asked you nicely to leave. You refuse. You don't frighten us, if that's what you're thinking. Not at all. You have about five seconds, then Zephyr and I are going to physically throw you out.
No need for that, I say. Just let me have this last cigarette.
You said that an hour ago.
Was it really that long?
Her nostrils flare. Her face has changed colour, gone a deep red.
Zephyr re-enters, drawing the cord on a long blue velvet robe. She has very pretty feet, I notice.
I've called the police, she announces. If you want to avoid spending the night in jail you'd best pack yourself off this minute.
Sulvie has decided to cry. Zephyr tells her to stop snivelling, there is absolutely nothing to warrant tears. I am an oaf, she tells her, but I will be gone soon.
She's only tired, I say. She will feel better in a minute.
They glare at me. Both women have spent all day preparing for the party, no doubt, and they are obviously exhausted.
I am, too, for that matter. I must be. Otherwise, I would not find myself in this awkward situation.
My palm is quite full of ashes. I look about for a place to put them.
The two women watch. Zephyr taps her foot. They are quite certain my ashes shall at any second despoil their vacuumed sky blue carpet.
I slide the ashes into my side pocket. I pinch out the cigarette and drop it inside as well.
You're finished, Zephyr says. She opens the door and stands beside it.
Just let me wipe my hands, I say. I stand. Would it trouble you too much, I ask, if I had a glass of water?
Sulvie screams. Zephyr rushes over to comfort her.
I go in and draw a glass of water from the kitchen tap. Dishes are piled up on the drain-board. The counter and the twin sinks have been wiped clean. The entire kitchen sparkles.
Suddenly Zephyr is behind me, asking what I think I am doing.
Oh, I thought I'd help out, I say. Put away a few dishes, the two of you have worked so hard. It was a lovely dinner you served, by the way. Don't know if I mentioned it before.
Zephyr snatches a golden serving tray from my hand. Out! she yells. Get out of here! The dish clatters down.
Sorry, I say. Didn't mean to offend.
I thump out another cigarette, heading out into the living room in front of her.
Sulvie, on the sofa, has her head buried under several pillows. I flop down into the nearest chair.
Won't be a second, I say. Just let me finish this.
Sulvie looks up, is horrified, then again buries her head. Zephyr leans against the sofa back, snarling to herself.
Go on with whatever it is you have to do, I suggest. Don't mind me.
Neither replies.
I make a stab at explaining this business of the cigarette. When I was very young, I tell them, I made a vow to myself never to smoke on the streets. A lot of people do, I think. At home, driving, at a restaurant, at these places okay, but never on the street. It's one way of controlling the habit, you see.
Sulvie, without looking at me, got up and left the room. A few seconds later I heard water running in the bath.
Zephyr approached, stopping directly in front of me. If you don't leave, she said, her teeth clenched, I'm going to kill you. I swear I will, I am not joking.
I could see she wasn't.
She held the robe collar clenched under her neck. Her eyes were hard and blazing. Her skin was very white, all the make-up scrubbed off. Her hair needed brushing.
Who the hell do you think you are? she asked. We hardly know you. Know nothing about you. We didn't invite you. You practically ruined the party for everyone. You're a truly contemptible human being, do you know that?
I'm sorry you feel that way, I said. As far as the party-crashing goes, you know I came with a friend. My friend assured me you wouldn't mind, that the two of you were very open-minded about that sort of thing.
Yes, she said, her fists balled up at her side, but your friend had the good grace to leave at a proper hour. We didn't have to kick her out. As far as that goes, we hardly know her either.
This surprised me. It had been my impression that Agnes was on the closest of terms with these two women. That was all I had been hearing for months: what an amazing pair this Zephyr and Sulvie were.
She's almost a total stranger, Zephyr went on.
Don't talk to me about Agnes, I said. That woman can drop dead for all I care.
Zephyr was about to say something more when Sulvie appeared, going from the bedroom to the bath, a chocolate-coloured beach towel wrapped around her.
If that man isn't out of here by the time I finish my bath, she said, I am going to kill him.
Zephyr rushed over to her. I could hear them whispering. Zephyr was asking Sulvie not to leave her alone with me. She was frightened, she said. There was no telling what I might do.
It puzzled me that she should say this. I had not raised my voice to anyone all evening, had not got in anyone's way; since the party ended I had done little more than sit and smoke and say to them over and over not to worry on my behalf, that I'd be leaving soon.
The two women approached together and sat down on the sofa facing me. They stared. For a long time the three of us maintained a strained silence. My ash dropped on the carpet, but I scooped it up so carefully it left no mark. Then Zephyr bounced up, shot at me, and began shaking my shoulders.
What is it you want? she demanded. Is it sex? Do you imagine we will let you sleep with us if you stay long enough?
Sulvie snorted. Fat chance! she said.
You're sick, Zephyr went on, now yelling, slapping at me. You're a cockroach.
He's a bore, Sulvie said.
I wish you wouldn't abuse me like that, I told them. I assure you I mean neither of you any harm. I find you both attractive, to speak frankly, but I certainly have no intention to make advances.
Then what do you want? both shouted at once. Why won't you leave?
I raised my cigarette, nodding at it, by way of impressing on them my firm intention to leave once this last one was smoked down.
Zephyr stopped shaking me. She sucked on a broken nail.
We were all startled when the phone rang. Zephyr snatched it up. She listened a moment, caught Sulvie's eye, then said:
Yes, he's still here. He absolutely refuses to leave.
I moved to take the phone, thinking it was Agnes checking up on me.
Zephyr jumped back. Don't touch me! she screamed. Sulvie leapt to her side, both looking panic-stricken. You leave her alone! Sulvie hissed.
I sank back down.
No! No! No! Zephyr yelled into the phone. We can handle it! We are quite up to handling this ourselves, thank you! She slammed the receiver down.
The two women returned to the sofa. They sat close together, Zephyr's hand gripping Sulvie's knee, Sulvie with an arm slung around Zephyr's neck.
I was steaming inside my overcoat. My hatband had tightened, giving me a bad headache. I had no more cigarettes.
I had stayed too long simply to get up now and casually walk out. I'd have to exert myself, do my best to win the friendship of these two. I couldn't have them thinking Agnes would waste her time on the contemptible creature they took me to be.
My mouth tasted sour. It seemed to me that if I didn't brush my teeth that very minute I would gag.
May I use your washroom? I asked. That final favour and then I promise you I shall be going.
The women said nothing. They were like lifeless dummies staring back at me.
In their washroom feminine scent abounded. Sulvie's unused bath water had been drawn extremely deep, its steam dampening the blue tiles and mirror. The water was coloured blue. On a white stool beside the tub were folded two thick yellow towels. Their tooth brushes were an identical white. The bristles of the one I chose were hard and cut my gums. I spat out blood, rinsed the toothbrush under a quiet trickle of water, and returned it to its holder.
I looked out. They had not moved from the sofa, although their heads had come together. Their backs were to me; I could not tell whether they were sleeping.
The bathroom was amazingly warm. My face was soaked with sweat. I felt almost too dizzy to stand.
A skylight occupied one entire half of the ceiling. A clever arrangement of shelves extended up to it and on these shelves rested scores of African violets all in bloom and thriving.
Agnes, too, had lately been collecting these dwarfish, uncommunicative plants.
I am a shower person. It has been years since my body has known the luxury of a long hot bath. I slid in, and kept on sliding. The water rose up my chest, my neck, stopping at last just short of my mouth. I sighed back with closed eyes, half-afloat now, very much at peace with myself, wishing only for a book, soft music, or a cigarette.

In the Garden

The woman -- the one who stands here at her apartment windows in her blue stockings and blue shoes and a blue raincoat that hangs to her heels -- the woman up here behind her windows high over the city's wayward slopes (Oh snow, oh hoary winter's drool!) and over the murky green waters (Needs stirring, I'll say) of Fisherman's Bay ... is thinking: What next? What to do with myself today that can be half the fun yesterday was?
"Life calls!" she suddenly trumpets, surprised herself by the sound of her voice and by all the joy that, like a grinning lunatic, has leapt inside her. (I'm happy as a tick, one might conclude I've been drinkin'.)
She carefully puts down her glass.
"Eleven A.M.," she gloats, "all's well."
She steps out on her narrow balcony, shivering (Merciless winter, oh sweetjesus will spring never come?), bending low and dangerously over the railing to peer inside the recessed sliding doors of the apartment below.
Feet, feet, she thinks, that's all I've ever seen. Shine your shoes, Mister-Man-Down-There.
No feet today, however. The glass needs cleaning and he ought to throw out those two dying ferns.
"I'll call Estelle," she says. "My good friend Estelle."
Do do call Estelle, give the little lady a fine thrill.
But Estelle, it turns out (Dear me, I've split my britches), is not home. (Not in? At this hour? What is that elfin horror trying to prove?)
So Rebecca -- woman by the window -- goes back to the window and again looks out over the close-rippling water (Ten years in this place and I've yet to see a fisherman there, only boats and more boats, teensy putt-putts, you'd think civilized people would have better things to do) -- looks out over the city slopes to the high, snowy mountains beyond (Oh fold upon fold upon fold, tedious and exhausting, but rather exquisite; yes, I do like it, this is such a friendly part of the world).
Oh, she thinks, what can I have been thinking of!
Of course.
She goes into her bedroom and takes her time selecting a nice scarf from her dresser drawer, something in a fetching complimentary blue --
"Yes, this one I think," and ties the silk loosely about her throat.
"Now I'm so pretty," she remarks aloud, "I am pretty enough to sing sing sing! And why not, while I'm at it, telephone Estelle?"
Estelle's phone -- can you believe it? -- rings and rings.
But Rebecca -- following a crow's black flight across the bay (Oh look at him swerve and dive, if only I could fly like that!) -- is not fooled. Oh, she's home, she thinks. Certainly she's home. Where else could she be but at home!
In one of her moods, possibly.
Mustn't discount her elfish moods.
One of her I-don't-want-to-see-anyone days. Doubtlessly nursing old grudges by the tonne. Got the brush-off from Harold, could be. Oh, the poor little downtrodden bird.
"None of your business," Rebecca tells herself. "Honey, you stay out of this."
She laughs. Estelle is so funny when she's in her moods. No, one can't help laughing.
A fruitcake, that's what Estelle is on her rainy-day days.
"No way out of it," Rebecca says. "I'd better shoot right over."
A swarm of gnats -- fruit flies, she supposes (Genus Drosophila, diptera, transparent of mind and wing, oh go away, gnats!) -- hangs in the air just short of Estelle's door, which swarm Rebecca steers straight through, thinking surely they will scatter. But they come right along with her, a net of floating black dots. They swirl about, an inch up, an inch down, untouched, as she swats. "Shoo, shoo!" she says, "oh, scat!" Finally she wades through, knocks on Estelle's bright red door.
All the curtains drawn, house sealed up tight. Estelle, honey, is it as bad as all that?
"Yoo-hoo! It's me!"
She can hear music playing over the stereo -- or radio -- something classical. Harpsichordish, may be. Old Worldish anyway.
Estelle being grand.
Grim church music to aid and abet the foul downspin.
"Let me in at once, darling!"
The door opens an inch and no more. The chain remains in place.
"Why have you kept me waiting here for so long?" Rebecca says.
"You should do something about this plague of wild gnats."
All she can see of her friend Estelle is one eye in the crack. She appears to have a bandage of some sort half-covering it.
"Go away," whispers Estelle.
"But I've walked miles," replies Rebecca, not worried in the least by such rudeness. Ooo-la-la, that's Estelle. "My feet hurt. It isn't easy in these high heels. I've probably got a blister, if you want to know. Anyway, I've got to talk to you. It's imperative. You are my best friend."
The door quietly closes.
Uncanny. Oh Estelle, why are you treating me this way?
She can hear Estelle's footsteps across the floor, something clattering down (Temper, temper, oh what a temper she has!) -- then the music coming on again, bit louder this time, some kind of silly piano piece, like four birds chirping from a high fence.
Rebecca swatted at the gnats. "Shoo!" she said. "Shoo! Oh, rats! . . ." She walked slowly out to the street, her head down. At the curb she turned and regarded Estelle's house most pensively. (Drab, Estelle, very drab. Most shoddy.) The house was indeed drab, small and lowslung, like a Crackerjacks box down on its side, and ridiculous with its red door.
Rebecca patted one foot against the pavement. She knotted the scarf tighter against her throat.
Poor Estelle, she thought, how can I cheer her up?
She wondered if any of the other people in their houses along the street were watching her. I certainly should be, she thought. I would continue the investigation until I knew precisely what was going on. Who is that woman? I'd ask myself. What can she possibly want? Or, if I were another woman watching me, I'd think: where could she have found that beautiful blue coat!
I'd smoke, that's what I'd do. I'd light up a lovely blue cigarette, oh I'd have a killing-good taste of the weed.
I will anyway.
No, no, children might be watching.
An old man, four houses down, was out in his driveway washing his car. Rebecca studied him. Wouldn't it be pleasant, and a nice thing to do, to go and talk to him?
". . . I was dropping in on my friend up the street," she said, speaking from a distance of several dozen yards, "but she does not appear to be receiving."
The man, less old than she had presumed, was down on his knees sudsing a hubcap; he did not look up.
"Her name is E. Beverly Sims," Rebecca went on, drawing closer. "She lives in that flat house with the scrawny box hedge by the front porch. I'm sure you must know her well. Estelle is the very outgoing type, and she has a splendid figure. In a nice friendly neighbourhood such as this one is everyone must know everyone."
The man, she now observed, stepping up beside him, had a pokey face and practically no hair. He was chewing on the nub of a cigar while squinting up at her. She admired his way of sitting on his heels.
"Where I live it is not the least like that. I live in a small but very efficient apartment down by the Bay. A condominium. You wouldn't believe what it cost. I'm way up on the twelfth floor, and can see for miles. Do you know that huge ships pass my window at night? Far out, of course. But I have a large telescope mounted on a nice tripod. I am continuing my investigation of these ships. It's easily the most interesting hobby I ever had."
"I'm washing this car," the man grumbled.
Rebecca realized that the remark was somehow meant to put her in her place. She laughed.
"I can see that. It must have been extremely dirty."
This comment clearly interested him. He rose up off his haunches, backed up a few paces, lit his cigar, and stared appreciatively at the automobile.
"It was filthy," he said. "My son had let this car go to the dogs." He spat, very close to his feet, and backed up a bit more. "They tell me young boys like nothing better than sharp cars to show off with the girls, but I give this car to my son and he has not yet got behind the wheel once."
"Oh my," said Rebecca. "That is curious behavior indeed."
Soap suds all along the car side were drying in the sun. But the man seemed more interested in the hubcap. He stooped beside it, buffing up the chrome with his sleeve. "Of course, he doesn't have his license yet. I give this car to him for his sixteenth birthday, but he has some months to go." He peered up at Rebecca. "Do you know Harold?"
"Your son? No, I -- "
"You wouldn't like him. He is the most stuck-up boy I ever saw. Something of a sissy, too, you want to know the truth. Bet you can't guess why."
"Hormones, I bet," said Rebecca. "I bet his hormones got sent straight up a tree."
"Not hormones," he said. "His mother. His mother has pampered the little rat since the day he was born." He paused, flipping his cigar in the dirt. Then he walked over and ground at it with his heel. "He is out now at Symphony School. Harold. He plays the oboe." He picked up the cigar, examining its mangled leaves between his fingers. "This cigar," he said, "it's real Havana. I got a pal sends them to me from Canada. Real cold up there. I got maybe twenty, twenty-five these rascals left." He spread the tobacco out in his palm and poked at it with a finger. "Real beauties, these cigars. I bet they cost my buddy a mint. But he owes me. He owes me a fortune, tell you the truth. You know why?"
Rebecca batted her eyes. "Why?" she asked. It had struck her that this man was somewhat odd.
"Because I stole his wife. I stole her right out from under his nose. One day there he was, married to the prettiest woman you ever saw, and the next day she wasn't there anymore. She liked me best, you see. I had the real goods but Ralph -- old Ralph -- well, old Ralph didn't have nothing and the next thing he knew he was out in the cold. Yep, between the two of us we really put it to him."
Rebecca considered this. She wasn't sure she liked it.
"Happy?" the man said. "You never saw two people so happy as the wife and me. Regular lovebirds." He shot a hasty look at Rebecca. "Then we had Harold. Beginning of the end."
Rebecca laughed. That phrase had always been one of her favourites.
"You probably know what I mean," he said. "Kids! Look at Job. He had a house full of kids, but what good did they ever do him? Only more misery."
Rebecca felt that she had been silent far too long. She thought it only right that she should point out there was another side.
"You would not think that," she told him lightly, "if you were in India, or in Greece, or even in Japan. Suppose you were in China and believed as you do? At the minimum, you'd be ostracized, and probably you'd be shot."
"Fine by me," he replied. "If I had to live in those places I'd want to be shot."
Rebecca walked over to the concrete steps leading up to the front door and sat down, crossing her legs prettily. She lit up a cigarette with her gold lighter and closed her eyes, holding her head back, blowing out the first draw of smoke in a long, measured stream.
"Nobody told you to sit there," the man reproached her. "This is private property." He seemed suddenly very angry. ". . . But sit there if you want to. What the hell, who ever listens to me?"
"I'm sure you've a very strong character," said Rebecca. "I'm sure you must dominate any circle you enter."
He puzzled over this a moment, then, shrugging, dropped down on his ankles again and began scrubbing the rear hubcap, his back to Rebecca. She noticed for the first time the baseball cap stuffed into his pocket. She found this intriguing, a strongly personal touch. She wondered what kind of hat he would have stuffed there had he been born in India. She found it charming, where men put their hats. He looked so round and full, stooped like that, a complete little world, total to the point even of where he put his hat. She smiled. She liked the way he bobbed up and down on his ankles, how his heels lifted up out of his shoes; his little grunts, too, were very charming. She could see an expanse of pink skin and now his underpants -- swatch of black polka dots -- rode up over his hips. She wondered if he would be interested in hearing what she had read about Babe Ruth -- not so long ago that she had forgotten -- in The New Columbia Encyclopedia. Sixty homers, imagine that. And born of people so rag-tail poor he had to be sent away to a training school, made to sweep floors for his daily bread. A pitcher, too. Eighty-seven wins in five years, now that was true pitching, that was real horseshoes.
She became aware after a while that the man was watching her out of the corners of his eyes.
She took off one shoe and held it above her head, shaking it as if to dislodge pebbles. But secretly she watched him.
He dropped his sponge into the sudsy bucket, spinning on his heels. His jacket was wet up to the elbows. "Harold's brother now," he announced sullenly, "he's another case. Been begging me for a car for years, but I wouldn't give him the time of day, not even if he got down on bended knee."
Rebecca nodded. "He must have done something extremely reprehensible," she said.
The man gave her a blank look, then shook his head. "Not my son," he explained darkly. "No, Norman's the wife's son. I keep telling him he ought to go off live with his real father, but he just whines 'Aw, Dad.' Can't even wipe his nose." He picked up his bucket and went around to suds up the grille.
"Estelle is like that, too," Rebecca said.
The man hiked up his pants. He looked off at the closed windows of his house and over at a stunted, leafless tree at the edge of his yard. "That friend of yours," he said gruffly, ". . . that Estelle, she's moved out, you know. That place is empty now. No, you'll waste your time knocking on that door."
Rebecca decided to let this pass, and the man dropped back down to his bucket. "I wouldn't give ten cents," he grumbled, "to know anybody on this block. Including your long-gone friend."
Rebecca ignored all this. "Beverly was her maiden name," she told him. "She married a man named Sims when she was twenty-eight, and although that union lasted only a short time she and Mr Sims remain good friends to this day." She smiled mischievously. "Nowadays Estelle has other interests, I understand. She's in love."
"Spit," he said.
"Actually, she's feverish about this particular gentleman, but I have reason to believe the relationship is undergoing its difficult moments."
"Pa-tooey," the man said.
"I'm sure you must have seen him. He drives an orange Toyota."
At this the man perked up. He wheeled about, pointing to a spot on the street vaguely in front of Estelle's house. "Orange?" he said. Rebecca took this to mean that he had seen the car in question parked out in front of Estelle's house through nights too numerous to mention.
"They may be good cars," he said gruffly, "but only a traitor would buy one." He smacked a flat, wet hand against the top of his own automobile. "I've seen him," he said. "He wears a hat."
This news tantalized Rebecca. She had never seen Estelle's lover wearing a chapeau of any sort. She stood up now. She had smoked her cigarette and had her visit and was now ready to leave.
"Where you going?" the man asked her.
She smiled, surprised. "Why, I don't know," she said. "I haven't thought about it."
He strode past her to the side of the house, beckoning. "Come inside," he grumbled. "Something to show you. I bought my son a .22 for his birthday. I've got it on a gun rack in the den. I don't suppose you shoot, being a woman -- my wife hates it -- but what I say is if Harold doesn't go out and shoot something with it the very minute he turns sixteen I'm going to throw him out of the house." He shoved his hands deep into his jacket pockets, scowling back at Rebecca who was lingering. "It beats me," he said, "why women don't like hunting. And fishing. There is not anything more fun than that. Character-building, too. My old man had me out on the marsh with a rifle in my arms before I was two years old. Women! I'll tell you about women. Women have got themselves into this trouble out of their own choosing. They deserve everything they get. Bunch of fools, if you ask me. Silliest thing on two feet. Look at you, for instance. All sky-baby-blue in that silly raincoat and those silly shoes. Well, it's feminine all right, but that's all I can say for it."
Rebecca laughed, a low breasty chuckle that brightened her face. She loved insults. She wished he'd say something else -- perhaps about her hair or her nice scarf or her blue pocketbook. She wished he'd put on his funny little cap.
"Come on," he ordered. "Want to show you that gun."
Rebecca was tempted. Few things pleased her more than seeing how other people lived. She could imagine herself inside browsing through his cupboards, checking out cereal boxes, opening the refrigerator door to read out the brand names on frozen foods. But she'd been looking at Estelle's house; she was certain she'd seen the front curtain move. "No thank you," she said. "Perhaps another time. I'm often in the neighbourhood."
"Buzz off then," he said. "Who asked you? I got better things to do."
The gnats had moved on from Estelle's door. They were now up around the telephone wire where it entered the house, a larger body now, black patch silently lifting and falling, swaying, against the clear blue sky.
"It's me again," Rebecca called, knocking.
The house was silent. Four or five rolled newspapers were on the ground beneath the hedge, soiled and wet, further indication to Rebecca that Estelle's love life had reached the cut-throat stage.
"I've brought you your reading matter!" she shouted, bent at the keyhole, thinking she detected shadowy movement inside.
"I'll huff and I'll puff!" she called. "Stand back!" Estelle didn't respond.
A tomb.
The back of the house was deserted, too. Curtains were drawn over the windows, and a beautiful spider web had been spun over the upper portion of the door. Crumpled newspaper filled a hole down in the corner of one cracked window. Under the roof line stretched a series of old hornets' nests, or dirt-daubers' sturdy quarters. The garbage can was overturned, but empty. A rusty barbecue stand was down on its side in the tall grass. Numerous tin cans and milk cartons lay about; a huge cardboard box had been flattened by the rain.
Rebecca took her time contemplating the debris, seated in a white metal chair out near where a composting fixture once had stood. She smoked, and pitched her head back to catch the sunshine. She would have been happy if only she had a drink to sip on.
Gloves, she thought. Why haven't I bought myself a pair of nice blue gloves?
The silence of the place fascinated her. She realized she was genuinely enjoying this.
A large fluffy cat, golden in color, hopped up on the picnic table in the neighbouring yard. It took turns idly scrutinizing her and, just as idly, licking its fur.
"Gin," said Rebecca. "Gin and tonic, I think."
And she stayed on another ten minutes or so, enjoying the invisible drink.
Someone not far away was calling. A woman's fragile, unhurried voice repeating: "Oro! . . . Oro! . . . Come home, Oro." Very musical, Rebecca thought.
A breeze played gently across her face, further subduing her mood, and she let herself drift along in a sweet, dreamy doze, seeing the world before her as though through a haze in which all things moved in tranquil, harmonic order, pleasant and kind.
The sun dropped down rays thick as a lattice fence, golden and alluring.
What splendour, she thought. I could be in someone's enchanted garden.
Afterwards, drawing the blue collar up against her neck, feeling somewhat chilled, she stepped again up to Estelle's rear window. She rapped on the glass, looking for a peephole through the curtains.
"Estelle? Estelle, darling, please open the door."
She heard a quick catch of breath within and could feel Estelle's presence on the other side of the wall.
"It's lovely out here, it truly is. You should come out and talk to me. He hasn't hurt you, has he?" She heard a whisper of footsteps, the creak of floorboards, and beat her knuckles sharply against the window. "Oh don't be unhappy!" she pleaded. "Please let me in. He isn't worth this pining, Estelle . . ."
The floor creaked again.
A cat squawked somewhere in the neighbourhood, much as if someone were repeatedly pulling its tail.
Rebecca stiffened; she shivered. She whipped her head around, certain that someone had stolen up and was about to hit her on the head.
No...
A very old man with an enormous stomach, wearing a checkered shirt and carrying his shoes in his hands, was out on the steps next door, watching her. He leaned against the door frame, putting on one shoe. Then he leaned the opposite way and put on the other.
"I think she's left that place," he said. "I think she moved out four, five days ago."
Rebecca smiled at him.
The man backed up, slowly withdrawing into the house.
Nearby, someone was singing, or perhaps it was a radio.
Rebecca stared a moment at the dusty, faded newspaper stuffed into the window crack. "I've got my troubles too, Estelle," she said. "My phone rings every night. It's that man I told you about. He refuses to let up. Every night I think, 'Well, tonight he's going to threaten me' . . . but he never quite does. He's extremely cunning. What do I do, Estelle?"
When Estelle didn't answer, Rebecca went up on tiptoe and tugged the stiff paper free. Then she went up again on tiptoe, straightening her arm, and poked her hand into the small opening. She worked her hand past the jagged glass and past the curtain edge and thrust her arm deeper into the room. It felt cold, very cold, in there.
Something brushed or cut or struck against her flesh and with a faint cry of pain, of fear, she snatched back her arm. Shards of glass tinkled down, her heel twisted in the uneven dirt, and she stumbled back, holding in her breath; she staggered, banged one knee against dirt, then lost her balance totally and landed gracelessly on one hip.
Dizzily, she got to her feet. Her coat sleeve was torn, scar in the blue fabric scarcely larger than a dime; a straight line of blood was popping up in droplets across the back of her hand. It stung.
"You've cut me, Estelle," she said, her voice calm, amazed.
She had a clear vision of Estelle inside the cold room, pressed against the wall, eyes slitted, knife poised, waiting for her again to poke her arm through.
But she wasn't sure. It could have been the glass.
She licked the line clean, hastily pulled free her scarf, and wrapped it around her hand.
"That was uncalled-for, Estelle. That was very mean."
She drew back, watching the window.
"But I forgive you."
At the corner of the house she turned, calling again.
"I know you're not yourself today. I really wish you'd let me help you."
She went once more to the front of the house and sat down on Estelle's stoop, brooding on this turn of events.
No, the fault wasn't Estelle's. The fault was Arnold's.
She unfolded one of the newspapers. The moisture had soaked through and the sheet had to be peeled apart. Displayed across the front page was a photograph of Nureyev leaping, his legs flung wide, bare buttocks to the camera, arrow pointing to where his tights had ripped. DANCER SHOWS TRUE FORM, the caption read. But Rebecca shivered at the black headlines. Shivered, and let her head swoop down against the page. 58 DIE IN BLOODBATH . . . OIL RIG GOES DOWN OFF NEWFOUNDLAND, NO SURVIVORS ... WARSAW ERUPTS.
Yes, she thought, and my mother is dead, my husband has left me, I have no children, hardly any life, and no one knows anything at all -- or cares! -- about poor Rebecca.
But when her head came up she was ruefully smiling.
Yes, all true, she thought, but we shall continue the investigation.
She turned, peering through Estelle's keyhole.
"Peace Promised for One Zillion Years!" she shouted. "Happiness Lays Golden Egg! . . . Man Steps in Pothole, Breaks Leg!"
She removed the scarf from her hand and closely observed the wound. "Nineteen Stitches Required!" she called. "Noted Plastic Surgeon Called In! . . . Lady Recovers from Heartless Attack!"
The tear in the coat bothered her more. She wondered whether a good seamstress could save the day.
A boy was approaching, yet some distance down the street, slouching, his hands deep into his pockets, small black case tucked up under one arm, his face white as plaster in the sunlight.
Harold.
The man who had been washing the car was no longer in the yard, nor was the car. A woman now stood out in front of the house, arms crossed over her chest. She was looking past Rebecca at the dawdling boy. She wore a print dress, too bold for her thick figure; the hem hung unevenly and the grass cut off her legs. She called wanly to the boy:
"Harold! Harold! He hit me, Harold!"
Harold stopped. Now nearly abreast of Estelle's house, he looked not at his mother but at Rebecca coolly watching from the stoop.
"You don't live there," he said to her. "That place is deserted."
Rebecca loved this frontal approach. He was sullen, nasty even, but she wanted to reach out and hug him. He was abusive, yes, but it seemed to her that those who were most insulting were also those who most willingly offered enthusiastic praise.
"What's that under your arm?" she asked him. "Is that an oboe?"
The boy's face clouded. He kicked a shoe against the pavement, standing with his body bent like a quarter moon.
"I wish you'd play for me," Rebecca said. "I haven't heard an oboist play really well in years."
"Who are you?" he growled. "What are you doing in our neighbourhood?"
"Harold! He hit me, Harold," called his mother.
The boy put his case on the sidewalk and, crouching, took the instrument from it, polishing the bulbous end on his sleeve.
"I give the pitch to the whole orchestra," he said, standing, glaring at Rebecca.
He blew a strong, high note, which then seemed to falter -- but the note came back stronger, more penetrating, thin, only a little plaintive, and it intensified and kept on coming.
"Harold!" called the mother. "He really hit me hard."
His mother now stood at the edge of her yard, her hands twisting around the narrow trunk of a leafless tree.
The boy scowled at Rebecca. "Sure, I could play," he said. "But I won't. Harold only plays for money."
Rebecca nodded doubtfully, her thoughts drifting, watching the swarm of gnats at the side of the house, hovering a few feet above the scraggly grass.
"You're a very good-looking boy," Rebecca said. "I'll bet you must be every inch of six feet tall."
"He hurt me, Harold!"
The boy came up and sat down on the stoop beside Rebecca.
"I'm very advanced for my age," he told her. "I'm very unusual. In fact, I'm eccentric."
"Well, it is a strange neighbourhood," she said.
"Not that strange. The woman who lived here -- what was her name?"
"Estelle."
"Estelle was strange. I saw her one night out back of this house, practically naked -- in a flowing gown, I mean -- down on her knees in front of that chair she's got back there, bowing and bowing, like an Arab. That's strange."
Rebecca smiled. "Not if you know Estelle," she replied softly.
Across the way his mother advanced a few paces, her footsteps weighted, as if deep holes were opening in front of her. When she saw them looking at her she backed up, returning hastily to the tree.
The boy moistened the mouthpiece, allowed his head to settle deep between his shoulders, then played several quick, rather piercing, notes. "Listen to this," he said.
He closed his eyes.
He played.
When the last lingering note faded, Rebecca, only now opening her eyes, clapped enthusiastically. "Oh God," she sighed, genuinely moved. "You're going to be immortal."
[This just barely went over the character limit, so it will be completed in the comments.]
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Towards a New World Order in Eurasia: The 21st Century’s Great Game

By James M. Dorsey
Remarks at conference on Regional Cooperation Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific and the Emergence of New Eurasian Geopolitics, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
One thing this week’s US air strikes in Syria highlight is the fact that the sands are continuously shifting as regional and world powers jockey for position in a future Eurasian world order. The strikes raise questions that go far beyond potential greater US involvement in the Syrian conflict. The answer to those questions will likely impact the role America may play in Eurasia and the Asia Pacific.
What is surprising is not the fact that US President Donald J. Trump ordered the launching of missiles. He has signalled with his appointment of generals in key national security positions as well as his budget proposals a more muscular, military-oriented approach to foreign policy. What that meant has been evident since he came to office in January in greater US military engagement in Yemen.
What is surprising is that days after Mr. Trump declared that he was president of the United States, not president of the world, that he, clearly taken aback by the horror of the Syrian chemical weapons attack, acted to uphold international law and packaged it in terms of compassion. The US strikes obviously countered allegations that he may be beholden to Russia as well as not unfounded perceptions of Islamophobia or an anti-Muslim bias.
Mr. Trump may not have a clearly formulated policy framework. Or maybe he does, but wants to keep everybody guessing. He has repeatedly stated that he would not broadcast his intentions to the world. Whichever it is, he is keeping China on its toes with regard to North Korea. He is also keeping Iran on it toes, particularly given the chances that President Hassan Rouhani could lose the forthcoming May election to a hard-liner.
On the notion, of the king is dead, long live the king, predictions of a US withdrawal from its role as the guarantor of a world order and US isolationism are premature, even if one is seeing a rollback on liberal US values such as human rights. For Eurasia, this alongside numerous other factors, means that the often unspoken notion that China may emerge as an unchallenged power in Eurasia and beyond is equally premature.
No doubt China will be a dominant player, but it will be one of two, and more probably three players, the United States and India being the others. No doubt, China has advantages: it has a first starter advantage with the scale and breadth of its One Belt, One Road initiative, its willingness to take short-term losses for long-term gain, as well as its economic, financial and growing military strength. Yet, all of that is insufficient to guarantee that it will ultimately operate in a unipolar world. More likely it will have to manoeuvre in a multi-polar world. And that may well be one of the takeaways from this week’s missile strikes in Syria.
Several factors are likely to play key roles in the shaping of a future Eurasian world order: States across Eurasia may be pivoting towards China, but many are hedging their bets. As Saudi Arabia’s King Salman toured Asia last month, his son and powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, travelled to Washington. Middle Eastern autocrats have embraced Mr. Trump lock, stock and barrel, including his controversial travel ban. If anything, the missiles strikes in Syria cemented that. The same hedging strategy is true for democracies like Sri Lanka or Myanmar.
And that is the Achilles Heel of the approach of whatever power, China, the United States or Russia, jockeying for position in Eurasia. The 2011 Arab popular revolts are perceived to have failed, a discussion that goes too far to embark on here, but the lesson of those uprisings stands. Autocracies that fail to deliver are inherently unstable and history teaches that most autocracies fail to deliver. The United States, China and Russia are placing their bets to a large extent on autocracies. In recent years China, has experienced the extent of the risk involved in that approach, witness Libya, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. No bet is shakier than the one Russia and Iran have placed on Bashar Al-Assad. Mr. Al-Assad is damaged goods, a pariah, no matter what happens in Syria. Russia and China as does the United States to a lesser extent run a similar risk in Central Asia.
China’s riskiest bet may well be in Pakistan, the country where it is investing perhaps the most. The risks are multi-fold. They include unease about the terms of Chinese investment involving massive returns on investment expected by China that sink countries into debt traps and raise questions about impact on local economies and the lack of a trickledown effect. Energy is the one aspect of Chinese investment, in what supporters describe as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and critics have dubbed Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China where the positive impact on an energy-starved country is likely to be most immediate.
In anticipation of the construction boom, the Mian family in Lahore invested $30 million to build a second plant of Fast Cables, one of Pakistan’s largest cable producers. Instead of benefitting from Chinese investment, the family fears bankruptcy. Cables for Chinese-built energy projects are not procured in Pakistan. They are imported tax free from China. For much the same reasons, protests have disrupted China’s plans for a port and special economic zone in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota. The city’s gleaming, Chinese-built airport operates all of four flights a day. The story repeats itself elsewhere in Eurasia. The Federation of Pakistani Chambers of Commerce and Industry has raised grave doubts about the impact of CPEC, noting that the demography of Balochistan, a thinly populated area of 70,000 inhabitants would dramatically change with the influx of up two million Chinese and Pakistanis from other parts of the country. The cost of the debt trap in terms of land concessions that change demography is already evident in countries like Tajikistan and has sparked protests in Myanmar. A Pakistani financial brokerage calculates that the Chinese rate of return on investment is a whopping 40 percent.
What makes Pakistan China’s riskiest investment goes beyond the pattern of commercial terms that are perceived as not being equitable. The port of Gwadar, a key node in China’s string of pearls, a network of ports across Eurasia, was first inaugurated some nine years ago. It’s not much more active than the airport in Hambantota. Balochistan is engulfed in an insurgency whose connotations go far beyond ethnic and nationalist aspirations. Political violence in Balochistan is as much an expression of long-standing local grievances as it is linked to a Pakistani state that sees militant proxies as part of its security, defense and foreign policies. Pakistan has been able to do so with the support in the 1980s of the United States during the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan, and since then with the backing of Saudi Arabia and China. The result is a state in which Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism has been embedded in significant segments of society as well as key branches of the state creating an environment in which the potential of violence is significantly enhanced. While Gwadar idles, Chabahar, an Indian-built port in Iran, some 60 kilometres further West is likely to push ahead.
Competition between Gwadar and Chabahar leads one automatically to the role of Middle Eastern players, primarily Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran in shaping the future architecture of Eurasia. Pakistan is emblematic of the impact of Saudi backing of ultra-conservatism in cooperation with governments willing to opportunistically play politics with religion. Yet, the rise of Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism and limited Iranian successes in countering it contributes to the groundwork for domestic strife and instability across Eurasia.
Despite widespread perceptions and Saudi success in ensuring that ultra-conservatism is an influential player in Muslim majority countries and minority communities alike, Saudi Arabia has a weak hand that ultimately makes it unlikely that it will come out on top. That is nowhere more evident than in energy and particularly gas. What will determine the future of Eurasia’s energy landscape will not be Saudi oil but Iranian and Turkmen gas. Energy scholar Michael Tanchum estimates that Iran will likely have 24.6 billion cubic metres of gas available for export in the next five years. That is enough to service two of Iran’s three major clients, Turkey, Europe and China. Likelihood is that it will certainly keep Turkey, leaving it with having to choose between Europe and China.
The jockeying for position in Eurasia resembles a game of Risk. The game’s outcome is unpredictable. Wracked by internal political and economic problems, Europe may not have the wherewithal for geopolitical battle. Yet, despite a weak hand, it could come out on top in the play for energy dominance. US backing of India in the Great Game and efforts to drive wedges into mostly opportunistic alliances such as cooperation between China and Russia and Russia and Iran could help Europe compensate for its weakness. Similarly, a hard US approach towards Iran, particularly if Mr. Rouhani is defeated in the next election buys Saudi Arabia time. Assuming, last week’s missile strikes in Syria were not a one-off after which the United States reverts to a more isolationist attitude, greater US assertiveness could temporarily drive China and Russia and Russia and Iran closer together. That, however, would not make potential, if not inevitable differences between them go away.
The missile strikes may well have had another effect that is crucial for Eurasia. If much of Trump’s initial period in the White House was marked by a sense of insecurity and defensiveness about the legitimacy of his election, the missile strikes that enjoyed bipartisan and broad international support may have put that behind him. That has implications for the impact of US investigations into Russian meddling in the US elections that benefitted not only Russia but also China. And it has an impact on populists in Europe with hopes for electoral success in France and Germany who in many ways are inspired by Trump’s success and may not want to stray too far away from his policies despite initial criticism of the strikes by the likes of French populist leader Marie le Pen. The long and short of this all is: First and foremost, the future of Eurasia is up for grabs
Multiple players, major ones like China, India and the United States, and lesser ones like Russia, Japan and Middle Eastern states, are jockeying for position.
No one player is likely to emerge as the clear winner.
Energy and ports are key pawns in Eurasia’s Great Game
Black swans could well determine the fate of various players. No swan is bigger than the inherent, if not always immediately apparent, instability of autocratic regimes that have yet to truly deliver. That is certainly true for Central Asian states but equally true for Middle Eastern ones, including those like Saudi Arabia that recognize that the status quo can no longer be maintained and that survival depends on successful efforts to upgrade autocracy and bring it into the 21st century.
In a world of interdependence, it may well be developments in states like those in Central Asia and the Middle East that determine the fate of strategies of the major players.
And just to end with more black swans, that no doubt others will pick up on: uncertainties in the region we are in today, Southeast Asia. Major among those are Chinese territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, co-authored with Dr. Teresita Cruz-Del Rosario and three forthcoming books, Shifting Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa as well as Creating Frankenstein: The Saudi Export of Ultra-conservatism and China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom.
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hedge bets meaning in arabic video

How to plant a garden hedge - YouTube LearnQuranicArabic - YouTube Lessons In Arabic {SEASON 01} - Shaykh Munaf ... Sports Betting 101: What is Hedging a Bet, and When Should ... Speaking Arabic with the locals in Egypt - YouTube Chris Hedges Arabic girls name with meaning and pronunciation - YouTube Meaning of Maula Ya Salli Wa Sallim ORIGINAL VIDEO IN ARABIC - YouTube What Do Hedge Funds Actually Do? Introduction to Hedge ...

Translations in context of "hedge" in English-Arabic from Reverso Context: hedge fund, hedge funds, hedge against Hedge: A hedge is an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. Normally, a hedge consists of taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as a futures Hedge one's bets definition is - to do things that will prevent great loss or failure if future events do not happen as one plans or hopes. How to use hedge one's bets in a sentence. Hedge funds are investment pools that are free to use any hedging techniques they desire and they often make large bets in a relatively small number of different holdings. Gamblers Glossary Placing bets on the opposite side in order to cut losses or guarantee winning a minimal amount of money. Definition of hedge priest in the Definitions.net dictionary. Meaning of hedge priest. What does hedge priest mean? Information and translations of hedge priest in the most comprehensive dictionary definitions resource on the web. Hedge funds are alternative investments using pooled funds that employ numerous different strategies to earn active return , or alpha , for their investors. Hedge funds may be aggressively managed hedge your bets definition: 1. to protect yourself against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides in a…. Learn more. Definition of bet written for English Language Learners from the Merriam-Webster Learner's Dictionary with audio pronunciations, usage examples, and count/noncount noun labels. hedge translation in English-Arabic dictionary. A line of closely planted bushes or shrubs, marking the boundaries of a field. To reduce the risk of an investment by making an offsetting investment. There are a large number of hedging strategies that one can use. To give an example, one may take a long position on a security and then sell short the same or a similar security. This means that one will profit (or at least avoid a loss) no matter which direction the security's price takes.

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How to plant a garden hedge - YouTube

easy to follow Arabic conversation with english subtitles from the first episode of the new season of Lessons In Arabic presented by Shaykh Munaf Mohamed.. l... #alternativeinvestments #hedgefunds #private equity #commodities #infrastructure #collectibles #cfaWhat do hedge funds actually do? How do they make money?He... Journalist, author and war correspondent Chris Hedges spoke at The Sanctuary for Independent Media in Troy NY on November 10, 2017 on fascism and empire in t... Learn Arabic and experience the Quran Linguistic Miracle today! Muslims regard the Qur'an as the greatest miracle of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), as proof of his Prophethood. The ... “Hedge your bets.”When someone says to “hedge your bets”, they mean that you shouldn’t fully commit yourself to one option, choice, possibility.“You should a... Lyrics and translation: Mawlaya salla wa sallim daiman abada‘Ala habibika khayril khalqi kullihimi-O my Master, send your salutations and blessings foreverUp... Sports Betting 101 and Betting Tips: Direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas host Kelly Stewart talks with sports betting experts Teddy Covers, and... Chatting with Arabs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2svkAPw6T0&list=PLB1es-4QvwS2qhZAfRTj5kWWwEyEUgJ5vMore from EGYPT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY17... This guide shows how to successfully plant a hedge in your garden. www.gardenninja.co.uk the garden design blogger shows you how! Hedges are great for shelte... some of arabic names for girls with meaning and pronunciationPart 2 : https://youtu.be/8Y_8zJ8lOtUarabic boys name : https://youtu.be/KvbGlouhbqg#Arabicnames...

hedge bets meaning in arabic

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