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[META] The Portugal of 1980 (LORE)

FINAL MAP

This post essentially builds off TheIpleJonesion’s fantastic lore, explaining the situation which Portugal and her former territories find themselves in during the early 1980s. It is broken down along geographic lines.

The Metropolitan (Continental Portugal and the Outer Island Provinces of the Azores, Madeira, Cabo Verde and São Tomé & Príncipe):

With the removal of the Salazar regime in 1954, Portugal transitioned into a military-dominated presidential republic. Liberal market reforms made by the democratically-elected Fraternity Party saw an end to state interventionism in the Portuguese economy and a move away from corporatist macroeconomic organisation towards capitalistic free-market economics. This transformed the predominately-agricultural Portuguese economy into an industrial powerhouse, as factories popped up across the continental provinces in what is now jokingly referred to as the ‘Portuguese Industrial Revolution’. As Portugal modernised its economy, it attained a developmental trajectory similar to that of the Asian Tigers IOTL. This was only helped by the extremely cheap importation of primary resources from Portugal’s former colonies in Africa, and the discount export markets which the escudo africano monetary area had established in these nations. Portugal’s economic ascension was accompanied by huge progress in the fields of education and infrastructure, as bridges and roads were constructed and continental illiteracy abolished.
Owing to its pro-business sympathies and dubious ties to the economic elite, the Fraternity Party ensured that no anti-trust measures were implemented as part of its economic reform strategy, allowing the influential ‘40 Families’ of Portugal’s south to expand their dominion over those sectors of the Portuguese economy that were privatised during the post-Salazar liberalisation. The result was an economic model that verged on plutocracy, as the anti-communist military conspired with powerful businessmen and corrupt Fraternity Party politicians to maintain the upper class’ hold on power. This alliance of convenience continued up until the late seventies when a cadre of disillusioned, left-leaning junior military officers led a mass of young conscripts to seize power in the infamous 1976 Carnation Revolution. The Revolution, which in many ways resembled the anti-Salazar coup 22 years prior, saw the passage of new anti-trust and anti-corruption laws after the democratically-socialist Movement for Democratic Unity’s (MDU) victory in the junta-supervised elections of 1977. Though the Revolution would establish a fairer two-party democratic system in which the Conservative Party (the successor to the Fraternity Party) would compete with the MDU in free elections, it also confirmed for a second time the military’s position as a powerful force in Portuguese politics. As such, despite the removal of plutocracy and the reinstatement of fair elections, the Portugal of the 1980s remains a “flawed democracy” according to most outside observer assessments.
Though this chaos certainly had a negative impact on Portuguese standards of living, the nation remains a dynamic economic force in Europe and an over-achiever when it comes to developmental outcomes. As the 1980s continue on, Portugal is beginning its transition away from heavy industry towards a stronger services sector while it signs special trade agreements with its partners in the European Common Market and continues to pursue close economic ties with its former colonies of Guinea and Angola. From the sparkling beaches of São Tomé & Príncipe to the luscious fields of northern Portugal and the windswept hills of the Azores, there is no doubt that the Republic has become quite the enterprising nation.

The Outer Metropolitan (Portuguese India, Macau and Timor-Leste):

Portuguese India:
Had the Indian subcontinent not fractured so easily in the late 1950s, it is difficult to see how Portugal would have been able to maintain any sort of presence in the territories of Goa, Daman, Diu, Dadra and Nagar-Haveli. The defeat of Indian forces in the Kashmir Conflict and the successful declaration of Dravidian independence after a bloody insurgency, however, created an opportunity for Portuguese policymakers. Years of economic development across Portuguese India and a deliberate policy of promoting an independent Portuguese-Indian identity strengthened Portugal’s claim to these territories, while deals signed with the US establishing an American naval base at Nova Goa and US protection over Portuguese India provided a strong deterrent. These gains were then solidified by deals with the Dravidian and Indian governments, which saw Portuguese sovereignty confirmed over Goa, Daman and Diu in return for Portugal ceding Dadra, Pani-Cola and Nagar-Haveli back to India, as well as the lending of strong military support to the Dravidians. Though there remains significant agitation across Portuguese India (now referred to as the Goa, Daman & Diu Province), Portuguese sovereignty over these increasingly productive and idyllic territories appears secure for the foreseeable future. What’s more, it is now not uncommon to see ethnic Indians roaming the streets of Continental Portugal as fully-fledged citizens. The long-desired union of Portugal to the Subcontinent finally appears complete.
Macau:
Macau is seen in the eyes of most as the crown jewel of Portugal’s Asian provinces. She is home to some of the most important banks in Asia and competes with Shanghai for the status of the financial capital of China. Not only that, but Macau competes with Bali, Jeju, Tokyo and Beijing for the most popular tourist destination in the Asian region, already being the destination of choice for the rich and famous, who flock to her many bars, casinos, prestigious restaurants and world-class designer fashion houses. The Macau of the 1980s is covered in stunning skyscrapers and jaw-dropping urban greenery. Indeed, the city boasts a population of nearly a million, with land reclamation projects having allowed for a vast expansion of the province’s urban domain. The city’s population includes tens of thousands of ethnic Portuguese residents, just as hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chiese now live in continental Portugal, being the second-largest ethnic minority community behind African migrants from Guinea, Mozambique and Angola, but ahead of Indian migrants from Goa.
At any rate, just as Macau has in many ways become the financial and touristic centre of Asia, it has also become a centre for intrigue. The unsuccessful Chinese attempt to seize Macau by force in 1969, for example, only saw a further upgrade of the province’s military defences, with the permanent deployment of an extra submarine to Macau Habour alongside thousands of additional troops and another fighter squadron. Meanwhile, the ‘Bloody Game’ that started in the late 1950s between Portuguese and Chinese spies, local casino syndicates, corrupt local politicians and the four main triad groups continues to this day, with the southern portions of Macau city being known for violent crime and a dirty underworld. Indeed, it appears that the province is as vice-ridden as it is glamorous.
Timor:
A series of bilateral agreements in the 1950s saw Timor-Leste recognised as integral Portuguese territory by the Indonesians, just as the peninsula came under separate US/Australian/SEATO military protection, thus securing Portuguese rule over the territory indefinitely. Despite this, prohibitive travel times and ticket costs kept Timor physically isolated from the rest of the Portuguese Republic until the mid-1960s, when she suddenly gained access to far more state support as the African colonies achieved independence and international travel became easier. The Timor of the 1980s remains a quiet corner of the Portuguese world, although it has grown increasingly successful as a tourist and natural resource hub.

The former African colonies (Guinea, Angola, Cabinda and Mozambique):

Guinea:
Having achieved her independence in 1965, the Guinean Republic maintained a slow but steady trajectory of economic development under close Portuguese supervision. Indeed, the nation remained remarkably stable throughout her first decades of independence, developing a fully-fledged democratic system over time which afforded it one of the highest standards of living among the continent’s independent states. Portugal’s close geographic proximity to Guinea, coupled with its near-identical struggle for democratic governance, has rendered the two nations close allies. Guinea remains the first port of call for Portuguese firms looking to establish a presence in Africa, with the nation functioning as the flagship model for Portuguese-African influence under the Silvestre Doctrine.
Angola (and Cabinda):
Though the Silvestre Doctrine had originally intended for the agricultural Ovimbundu people of Angola’s central plateau to dominate the Federal Angolan Republic post-independence (in a close alliance with the Portuguese), the unexpected strength of the rival Kimbundu people saw the two ethnic groups clash in a violent struggle for political power that lasted between 1964 and 1967. With Portuguese assets sustaining increasing damage during the bloody affair, Lisboa turned to its Kikongo allies in Angola’s north for assistance. United by its staunchly pro-Portuguese and anti-Communist leader from the nearby Ngbandi people of the then Belgian Congo, Mobutu Sese Seko, a powerful Kikongo army marched south and captured Luanda from the leftist Kimbundu militias. This placed Angola under the rule of Portugal’s Kikongo allies, who then turned to the Ovimbundu for additional political support, as well as the ethnic Portuguese and minority tribes of Angola’s south. Seko now rules Angola with an iron fist, using Portugal, the Ovimbundu, Portuguese-Angolans and the minority tribes to maintain power. His ties to Portuguese commercial interests have proven an immense asset for the Portuguese economy, which sees its manufacturing sector and domestic consumption fueled by cheap primary resource imports from Angola.
Using his ethnic ties to the north, Seko became a major player in the war for Congolese independence, leveraging this assistance to become the political kingmaker in the newly-independent Republic of Zaire. This has resulted in Zaire effectively becoming a joint Luso-Angolan puppet state, with its government ministries littered with Portuguese and Angolan advisors, and the nation having joined the escudo africano monetary zone.
Moreover, though it voted for independence in 1960, the Cabindan Republic was quickly subsumed into the Federal Angolan Republic as one of the conditions for an alliance between Seko’s Kikongo faction and the Portuguese. As a result, Luso-Angolan influence now runs from Luanda, past Zaire, into Cabinda and beyond towards the Republic of the Congo, making Angola one of the most powerful forces in the new Africa.
Mozambique:
The post-independence climate in the Mozambican Republic of 1965 resembled that of Angola at first. Rival ethnic groups clashed for power as election after election failed to yield clear results and cultural entities with little in common began to embrace armed struggle instead of the ballot. Unlike in Angola, however, Portugal was unable to salvage the situation and was forced to withdraw from the chaotic banana republic. Those ethnic Portuguese who had for centuries called Mozambique home largely fled to southern Angola or accepted government offers for free land in São Tomé & Príncipe, as Tanzanian-Arabian-backed Islamic militias fought for control in the north, and the African nationalist factions from the Shona tribes clashed with the leftist Shangaan in the south. Eventually, the Shona managed to secure national control, establishing a pan-African state under the dictatorial rule of Gondo Matombo. Without the support of sympathetic regimes in Rhodesia, Moscow or Beijing, the Free Nation of Mozambique is an isolated state. It maintains rivalries with Tanzania (as a result of Dodoma’s support for Salafist rebels in the north), North Rhodesia and Nyasaland (after the preceding Shangaan regime seized the Likoma and Chizumulu islands in 1966), South Africa and Rhodesia (for Mozambique’s support of radical pan-African insurgent groups) and Seko’s Angola (which obviously opposes the Matombo regime on ideological grounds). President Matombo’s chaotic economic policies have driven away foreign investors, while Mozambican civilians are organised en masse into autonomous units of the “African People’s Defence Militia” to defend against “Islamic subjugation, Boer segregation, Portuguese neocolonisation and the enslavement of the African people”. Sadly, it seems Mozambique’s violent decline managed only to produce the very worst kind of basket case dictatorship.
A huge thanks to guyfromvault11 for being an amazing teammate, to the mods for a season well-run, and to all the other players for making this such an engaging season. I can’t wait for the next one!
submitted by hughmcf to ColdWarPowers [link] [comments]

[EVENT] Portus Ostium

Macau since 1949:

Since the end of the Chinese Civil War, Macau has grown tremendously in regional significance, shifting from a valuable entrepôt to one of the largest hubs in the Far East. The vast majority of refugees who fled to the territory have been allowed to stay, with 150,000 having already secured territorial residency (the closest thing to citizenship for non-ethnic Portuguese in the overseas territories at present), bringing the total resident population up to 350,000 (the remaining 150,000 have ten-year work permits). Of the 300,000 residents who have arrived since 1939, approximately 100,000 have settled on the Macau Peninsula, 50,000 on Colaone Island, and 150,000 on the previously under-populated Taipa Island (see map as attached). This has left much of the territory covered in slums, although a central government-supported programme to provide interest-free mortgages to refugees and new residents has led to the establishment of medium-quality, high-density housing across much of Taipa Island and the Peninsula. Small scale industry and locally-owned businesses have also taken off across the territory, as migrants attempt to start a new life in the bustling city.
The Macau of 1957, therefore, finds itself with an affluent centre of business on the Peninsula, flanked by emerging neighbourhoods and slums in the south and east, a highly-populated emerging cityscape on Taipa Island, with a central nucleus of emerging neighbourhoods (predominately featuring high-density, apartment-style housing) surrounded on all sides by slums and small scale factories, and a still under-populated Coloane Island, which presently boasts some slums, farms, factories and traditional villages.
The vast majority of small scale industry in Macau consists of textiles manufacturing in factories set up by the migrants. That said, larger-scale industry has also emerged, including a major bicycle factory near the border with China and a rifle manufactory on the southern tip of the Peninsula. This is emblematic of the territory’s economic ascendance, as is the arrival of new waves of ethnic Portuguese, who have brought the European population of the territory up to 13,000 since 1949.

Commercial opportunities:

The signing of the Sino-Portuguese Free Trade Agreement (SPFTA) in 1956 has dramatically improved the economic prospects of Macau. Indeed, the near-complete removal of Chinese import tariffs on Portuguese luxury goods has resulted in the establishment of a number of luxury goods production facilities on the Peninsula, as well as the proliferation of dozens of prestigious vendors in the affluent portions of the isthmus. In addition to the basic textile manufactories set up by the migrants, a number of fashion outlets have also been established for upper-class visitors, and for deliveries to customers in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia and Southeast Asia. Jewellers, shoemakers, watchmakers, tailors, cordwainers and bag markers have all set themselves up in the territory, where they create their products, sell them to visitors and also export them abroad. Distilleries have also become popular, with the territory developing a positive reputation for its fine, locally-distilled whiskey, rum, gin and baijiu. An emerging brand of dark rum, known as ”Ventos Orientais”, has grown particularly popular. The rum is recognised for its distinctive flavour, being the only major rum brand to use Timorese sugar. Tobacco companies have also established high-end stores on the Peninsula, where they sell a number of recognisable international cigarette and cigar brands.
Otherwise, with the significant reduction of Chinese tariffs on precision-made products, a number of manufactories have popped up on Coloane Island, producing measuring equipment, precision medical supplies and levelling tools.
The Banco de Macau, meanwhile, has left a permanent mark on the territory by becoming the first enterprise to construct a ‘skyscraper’ (as they’re being called) in Macau, building its new corporate headquarters on the western side of the Peninsula. It has been joined by the Macau-Beijing Investment Bank and the Banco Afro-Eurásia, which have also begun construction on smaller, albeit impressive skyscrapers. Regrettably for the Banco Português do Continente e Ilhas and Montepio Geral Bank, who do not have enough capital for a skyscraper, three-storey office buildings have had to suffice.
In many cases, these banks have been instrumental in financing the recent expansion of the Macanese economy. The Banco de Macau and the Banco Afro-Eurásia, however, have sought to increase their regional presence even further by expanding into Thailand, the Philippines, Japan, Singapore and Indonesia. The Banco de Macau, in particular, is expected to make major investments in Japan, Thailand and Indonesia in the coming years.

Tourism and entertainment opportunities:

The recent introduction of Western gambling to Macau, along with the Banco de Macau’s heavy investment in new casinos, has led to a proliferation of the gambling industry across the territory. Dozens of small to medium, high-end, Western casinos now dot the Peninsula, while a number of traditional casinos have emerged on Taipa Island. Along with the emergence of a luxury shopping culture, the new casinos have proven extremely popular with affluent visitors from China, Hong Kong, Japan, the West and Southeast Asia. Many new hotels are being founded on the Peninsula to meet this demand, as well as a new, game-changing casino known as Casino Lisboa, which shall open its doors in 1960. Quite expectedly, the proliferation of gambling across the territory has only poured fuel on the metaphorical fire that is the gambling syndicate rivalry. New syndicates are now competing for an increased market share as outside factions interfere with the rivalry (see: the banks and Triads) and older syndicates desperately battle to preserve their local hegemony. Already, this rivalry has been given a morbid monicker, becoming known as the ”Bloody Game (残忍赛)”. This name is quite deserved, given that syndicates of all sizes have gained a reputation for sabotage, death threats, murder and murky alliances with the Triads as their deadly rivalry spirals out of control.
Beyond the casinos, new bars, restaurants and nightclubs have been established across the territory, catering almost exclusively to high-end visitors and the Macanese elite. The combination of modern, dimly-lit bars, domestically-made liquor, prestigious fashion brands, international visitors and high-stakes games of poker have given Macau a distinct flavour, with the city increasingly being known as the ”City of Jazz (爵士城)”. Regular ferry trips between Hong Kong and Macau, coupled with daily/weekly flights to Tokyo, Beijing, Singapore, Manila, Shanghai and Bangkok are only improving this reputation.

Future infrastructure:

MAP
The huge population increase on the Taipa and Coloane islands have put immense strain on the intra-Macau ferry service. Hoping to alleviate this strain, the Macanese territorial government has announced a new project to connect Taipa Island to the Peninsula with a new bridge. Inspired by the Ponte de Liberdade in Lisbon, and designed by the same engineers, the bridge is expected to be completed by 1965 (marked in red on the map). The bridge is to be named in honour of the territory’s outgoing Governor, Joaquim Marques Esparteiro, being called the Ponte da Esparteiro.
Otherwise, recognising the strain which Macau’s rapidly-increasing population has had on the geography of the territory, a major land reclamation project is to be undertaken on both the Peninsula and Taipa Island. Zoning will take place ahead of time for the planned land, allowing preemptive property sales to help fund the project. Dutch engineers will be brought on for the project as a result of their vast land reclamation experience. Additionally, the Portuguese Navy is to assist with the project by providing auxiliary vessels where relevant. The new Peninsula-Taipa bridge will only extend across the stretch of water between the reclaimed land, with the connecting road that passes over the reclaimed land simply being raised several metres above the ground. (Land reclamation areas are marked in blue on the map, along with their planned year of completion).
Finally, in order to prevent a potential bottleneck of manufactured goods produced on Taipa Island from blocking Macau harbour and the Ponte da Esparteiro, a new industrial dock is to be constructed on the island, to be completed by 1964 (marked in orange on the map).

Vice and crime:

As previously noted, the expansion of the gambling industry has also spawned an intense rivalry between the syndicates. Indeed, the increased prevalence of vice across Macau has created an opportunity for the Triads, who already enjoyed a strong Macanese presence before the territory’s expansion, particularly on Taipa Island, the Peninsula casinos and in the slums/emerging neighbourhoods in the north. As the "Four Major Gangs (四大黑幫)” of Shui Fong, Wo Shing Yee, 14K and the Big Circle Gang have grown in importance, they have gained large footholds in the new neighbourhoods, where they run extortion rackets and loan shark operations, targetting small businesses, nightclubs and traditional gambling dens. Human trafficking has also emerged as a dangerous front, as the Triads seek to smuggle in illegal workers and, in the case of the nightclub sector, “waitresses”. Finally, the counterfeiting of patacas (Macau’s currency) has increased prolifically, as the Triads seek to use fake currency to make large bets in the casinos.
Though Indonesia’s provision of detailed intelligence on Triad drug smuggling operations in Macau has resulted in a massive crackdown on that particular area of organised crime activity, the Triads appear to be gaining ground on almost every other front, creating a complex interplay between Macanese businesses, rival gambling syndicates, law enforcement, local politicians and the Four Major Gangs. Hoping to assist the struggling territorial police in eradicating bribery, human trafficking, extortion, loan sharking, murder and counterfeiting, the SIS (basically the Portuguese FBI/secret police) and the Customs and Finance Intelligence Service (CFIS) have created a joint task force known as Operation Varrer Profundo (Deep Sweep). This operation will see the two agencies create large, permanent offices across the territory, cracking down on the Triads and illegal gambling syndicate activity by sending in hundreds of agents. Thus begins what many expect to be a years-long cat and mouse game between Portuguese authorities, the Triads, the gambling syndicates, corrupt politicians and the business sector
submitted by hughmcf to ColdWarPowers [link] [comments]

No Frills DFS - Dealing with Burnout

Yesterday I should have seen all the warning signs. I kept drifting out of it while doing research and eventually stopped entirely to scratch an itch to "finally watch Man of Steel" -a movie I've never before cared about and didn't care about as I watched it. For reference, my girlfriend and I don't even own a television. After about 15 minutes I realized I wasn't even watching the movie but just playing with my phone and more just listening to sound effects in the background. I had no idea what was going nor was I bothered to find out. Instead of realizing I was experiencing burnout and unregistering what I could and setting an ideal lineup for the rest, I instead decided that maybe it's for the best I haven't seen any of the modern Superman films and took a nap.

None of this was typical behavior for me.

I normally love researching sports data, in fact, I did it even before I ever played DFS. Fangraphs was my default landing page on my browser in college. I used to spend days on end projecting baseball outcomes just for fun. I'm the kind of guy who reads a biography on Napoleon, finds details lacking and then will spend 12 hours straight pouring through online archives of statistics compiled by battlefield surgeons during the Napoleonic Wars because the author didn't give me a satisfactory level of insight into how prevalent bayonets were in actual combat. See, I'm already getting off topic, the point is that I have basically no interest in films like Superman and love absorbing deep and nuanced data. I also never take naps. Something was clearly afoot but I failed to recognize it.

Bayonet wounds compromised 2% of recorded wounds in Napoleonic warfare if you were wondering.

What I should have noticed was days earlier I forgot to check in around lock for PGA to scour the site for overlay, bad players making h2hs, or generally weak fields as I normally do.

I also ignored that recently I'd not been paying as much attention and doing things like forgetting to double check on guys who were probable.

Tellingly, I also didn't know Boban was starting. I literally passed off all the Boban chatter as sarcastic and never bothered to consider people were being serious.

And earlier that morning, I forgot to double check on my soccer lineups so had some guys on the bench on my team.

All of this was ignored. Sure enough, still in this DFS malaise, I not only don't set a real dummy lineup but don't even bother to check in on it before lock. By the time I realize what's going on, some of the games had already started and sure enough, I had button mashed in the backup NJ goalie in my dummy lineup. I normally put in a strong dummy lineup because it helps introduce the upcoming slate to me before I start research in earnest.

This phenomenon is called burnout. It costs me money every couple months when it appears. It likely does the same to you. You've probably often seen the gpp lineups that never got filled or when someone starts someone against you in h2h that was ruled out long before lock - that's almost always burnout you are witnessing.

The key is catching it before it hurts you financially. This is easier said than done. Despite all the warning signs poking me right in the face, I just ignored a series symptoms as unrelated events. A few times I even asked myself if it was happening but convinced myself that wasn't the case. It wasn't until the financial consequences became meaningful that the gravity of the situation had set in and I was able to accept what was going on.

Fortunately for me, the upcoming hockey and basketball slates are very weak so it's easy to fade. It'd be a lot more tempting to just continue playing through it if there weren't only 3 NBA games today. That's my first step in my process of getting out of burnout. I'm still going to play, but instead of having multiple lineups in each slate, I'll switch it up to a single lineup put in sparingly for a fraction of the amount I normally play. I've personally found it's best for me to stay involved, just not for stakes of any significance. I won't start playing with a normal amount again until I find myself naturally and eagerly wanting to research the upcoming slate.

Burnout was always much easier to deal with during my poker days. In fact, it never was a major problem for me to the extent that it hurts my DFS. I think the reason for this would be that poker requires active involvement whereas DFS is more like a Ronco product with a set it and forget it. It allows you passively partake, something that enables you to keep going on when you really shouldn't. Playing shitty poker takes just as much effort as good poker, playing shitty DFS takes up no time at all whereas one could otherwise spend an entire day preparing for it.

When I was playing online poker, it was a very simple matter, I'd realize I had no interest in what I was doing and just log out of each table once my big blind came around. I'd then try to spend a bit more time outdoors. I'd go for a walk or a hike and if that wasn't enough, the next day I'd pack up some things and go on a trip. However, with us all having 9-5 jobs, you can't just phone in to the office and say you need some time off to relax and confront your burnout :). So these days it's just a matter of staying involved by playing for like $1 and wait for the urge to research comes back. No road trips to Moab, Utah or days on the beach.

Sooner or later I'd start feeling that itch again and things would be back to normal. When I was playing live it was another matter. Usually being in Macau, there wasn't really all that much for hiking or camping on a congested island. Furthermore, never being a permanent resident there, each day I was there I was paying for rent back home and a hotel room/airbnb over there - in essence, burnout simply ate into my ROI. I'd view time not spent at the tables as time that was wasted so I created a one day break with a test afterwards to determine whether I kept playing or packed up and went home.

So when I began not feeling like myself at the tables from these constant high stakes sessions, I made a habit of hitting up the Clube Militar De Macau. This was a fascinating place, it used to be where the Portugese Military hung out during the colonial era and these days it's just an out of place building surrounded by the older casinos, an alley of Philipino tranny hookers and fake jewelry shops that pretend to sell you stuff but really just give you unofficial cash advances on your credit card. I always got a kick out of that, all the pomp and circumstance which used to encompass that building and the people who used to occupy it... always wondered what they'd think if they knew it's become a derelict just barely hanging onto survival with a very reasonably priced lunch buffet. Without fail, it's always empty.

I'd sit down and order a Vinha D'Alhos along with a bottle of wine and just soak up the setting, think about my recent play and keep drinking until I thought about something else. Sometimes, I'd need to get a second or third bottle of wine. Then I'd go on a walk through the old city, see the free standing wall that remains of the old cathedral and then loop back around and hit up the evil empire of degeneracy that is the Cystal Palace Casino.

Now Macau has many casinos, some were big in the past that are largely empty today, others are modern and luxurious ones that are crowded today. The Crystal Palace is neither of those. It's a tiny little place crammed into 2 rooms on the 3 floor of the Hotel Lisboa, not to be confused with the Grand Lisboa, which is across the street. While most of Macau is baccarat and high stakes (most places the min bet is over $50), the Crystal Palace fills a little niche of broke degenerates offering min bets for less than $10. This is where I'd happily take the amount I'd normally play in blinds in a single orbit and stretch it out over several hours of mindlessness. I'd start off with Blackjack and then once too inebriated to be counting accurately (like with burnout, probably never realized until well after it'd begun) I'd then switch it up and play baccarat as no amount of drunkeness can screw that up because there's no way to impact the outcome one bit. They will however let you touch, bend and play with the cards, which can actually be fun after a couple drinks.
Afterwards, I'd head back to the hotel and lay down in bed listening to my current audiobook - usually science fiction. I'd drink plenty of water, eat some healthy food and get very well rested and sleep for a very long time. The next morning I'd again hit up the Crystal Palace, but this time go straight to the poker room and get on the list. After an hour or two playing the low stakes poker they offer, I'd make a decision over whether I was still feeling it or rather thinking of blackjack and baccarat. If I was back in the mood for poker, then I'd head off to the Wynn or another casino with a poker room. If I wasn't, then I'd cash out, book tickets home and play more baccarat and blackjack until it was time to leave for my flight.

That's really how I could tell whether or not I was still going through burnout. If I felt more attracted to much more mindless and instant gratification pit games than grinding away at the poker tables. For DFS, there is no real active involvement, so I don't have that indicator. It's much more subtle. It's a lot harder to detect when burnout is occuring, and it's much more difficult to confront. Since poker is active, I just had to do something else and wait for my desire to return. But for DFS, there's always that "oh I should set some lineups" mentality that's basically automatic process for most people. For many of us, a day without setting lineups is like a day without lunch, it may happen, but it feels abnormal and while one can sit down and play poker when not into it, DFS is orders of magnitude easier to passively do and that's the danger, that you could be burning ROI before realizing you are burning.

So whenever you start feeling different, be it getting bored while doing research, wanting to play some baccarat or oddly have a desire to watch Man of Steel, try to pay attention to it and reconsider whether or not you should be playing DFS for more than a token amount that day. It's easier said than done, but recognizing burnout and taking proactive steps to limit the damage are essential for any sustained DFS grind in which we all partake.

I still have yet to find a new way to bring my mind back into the game, which is the primary reason I'm writing about it here. I'm hoping this can help. Most likely though, I'll just wait it out and sometime soon be thinking hard about researching Harden's game time status again, and then I'll know it's safe to play again.
submitted by DFSx42 to dfsports [link] [comments]

iCloud signed into last night while asleep, woke up to this. Anyone know what this is or where I should report it to?

http://imgur.com/XO16hZf (screenshot of messages app)
I have since changed my password because I got an email about it as well, but I'm still unsure if that's all I needed to do. Are there other steps I should take to safeguard my phone and computer (Macbook Pro) before I consider this closed?
Thanks
Edit:
I was curious and translated the text, and it seems to be ads for a foreign gaming thing.
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submitted by jacob_813 to applehelp [link] [comments]

Macau trip report & PSA

This was my 2nd time to Macau (poker-related) and I have good news and bad news for anyone considering a trip.
The good news: The games are pretty fishy and if you are a decent player you have a good chance of walking away with a profit. Both this trip and last trip I tripled my original buyin over 3 days. This time, won enough to cover my flight and hotels and still have a profit. Didn't get especially lucky either; there were upswings and downswings but I just played disciplined and aggressive poker. Note that I'm talking about the lowest limits (25 - 50 Hong Kong dollars no limit, which is about $3 - 6 USD) so games may be tougher in 50 - 100 or above.
Most players there are weak-tight. 80% of the time there is no pre-flop raise. Post-flop there is more aggression, but you can profit if you learn which type of fish each player is. Some fold too easily, and some call to easily. Once you determine which is which, easy game. A few are good local regs, mostly TAG's. Just avoid getting in big pots with them if possible.
The bad news: Poker is not profitable for the casinos, so more and more hotels are closing their rooms, limiting the number of tables, and upping the limits. Hotel Lisboa used to have a big room with 50 tables or so, tournaments, and lower limits (10-25 I think). Just recently they closed it all down. Hard Rock Hotel also closed their poker room. The reason is that there is a cap for each hotel on the total number of table games they can have, and baccarat is much more profitable than poker. So hotel owners look at the numbers and are ditching or really cutting back on the poker, replacing them with baccarat tables.
As a result, there are only three hotels left that spread poker: The Venetian, the Wynn, and StarWorld (and this may change so check this thread on 2+2 before you go; click last to go the most recent dated post) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/200/regional-communities/macau-488/ So that's not much of a problem in itself. My biggest gripe is that they only have 5 to 10 tables each, so the waiting list is always super long. First night at the Venetian, I was 18th on the list and ended up waiting 6 hours. That was the worst; but other times it was always 2+ hours wait. So basically, the best strategy is to put your name on a list (early afternoon, like 2 or 3, is best), go eat, come back, sit down, and stay there all day and all night.
Details and impressions about each place:
Venetian: Terrible service. Rude and super slow; plus estimates for wait time were never accurate. Little to no drink service (all costs money). Play is supposed to be softer here but I didn't notice a difference. Limits: 25-50, 50-100, 100-200; NLHE only (others if there is interest) Rake: 5%, 250 HKD cap
Wynn: Excellent service. They send you a text when your name is on top of the list, so you don't have to sit there waiting. Decent drink service, free unless alcoholic. Play was pretty soft at 25-50. Limits: 25-50 up to 1,000-2,000; apparently they spread the highest in the world here. They also regularly have PLO but I think 100-200 was the lowest. Rake: 5%, 200 HKD cap
StarWorld (Poker King Club): I had high hopes but didn't get to play here. You can call ahead and put your name on the list, but if you're not there within 30 minutes of being called, it's back to the end of the line (which is long). They are the only place with a players card. Limits: 25-50 was the lowest; don't remember how high they went. No Omaha. But they have Sit-N-Go's on Fridays and Saturdays. This is the only "tournament" left in Macau. Rake: Don't know
Another thing - not sure if it was coincidence, but most of my profits on all 3 days came between midnight and 6:00 AM. During the day time there were more nit-regs, and night time is when more tourists came out.
submitted by LanceWackerle to poker [link] [comments]

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