This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
   
2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
   
3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
   
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
   
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
   
9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
   
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
    
11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
    
12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
    
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
    
15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
    
16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
    
17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
    
19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
    
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
    
22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
    
23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
    
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
    
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
    
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
    
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
    
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
    
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
    
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
    

Round 2

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
   
2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
   
3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
   
4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
   
5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
   
7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
   
8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
   
9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
   
10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
    
11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
    
12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
    
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
    
14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
    
15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
    
16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
    
17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
    
19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
    
21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
    
22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
    
23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
    
24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
    
25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
    
26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
    
27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
    
29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
    
30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
    
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
    

Third Round

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
   
2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
   
3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
   
7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
   
8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
   
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
   
10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
    
11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
    
12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
    

XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited

1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
   
2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
   
3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
   
4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
   
5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
   
6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
   
7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
   
8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
   
9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
   
10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
    
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
    
12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
    
13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
    
15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
    
16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
    
17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
    
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
    
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
    

Compensatory Picks

1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
   
3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
   
4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
   
5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
   
6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
   
7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
   
8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
   
9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
   
10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
    

Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
***
San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
***
Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen

Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.

Sure, there are plenty of posts from people who applied to a job and got an offer 30 seconds later. Good for them. But if you're on this sub, you're probably running into more difficulty. I did. Job hunting these days is inherently pretty hard, but there are plenty of things I did wrong during my job hunt that could have saved me time and trouble. I'm a 35 year old in product marketing in the bay area, so this advice may or may not apply to you.
Most of this advice is not new, you may have seen it elsewhere. Well, HEED MY WORDS! You should take that advice.
Here are my don'ts of job hunting:
e: Here's the real #1 piece of advice because someone brought it up in the comments: Don't Not Have A Network. The main reason I had such a hard time was I moved to a new city where I didn't have a professional relationship with ANYONE. I think if you're applying without a friend on the inside, it reduces your odds by 80-90%, based on random factoids we've all seen that say 80% of jobs are never posted publicly.
I went to networking events and coffee meetups and blah blah blah, but COVID put a stop to that before I could make much progress. The biggest piece of advice (by far) is just to have a friend who can get you a job. But if you're reading this, you would have done that already if you could have.
Don't try to get by without doing the standard "best practice" stuff.
I spent a while thinking I could get away without making a customized resume for different jobs. I also thought I would probably have the right keywords naturally, and that I didn't have to worry about that either. WRONG. I wasted many weeks submitting poorly optimized resumes and getting few interviews.
What you should do is have at least one version of your resume customized for each job title you're applying to. That means if you're applying for Sr. Widget Fiddler and Director of Widget Fiddling, you need 2 versions.
Keyword optimize each resume version by copy-pasting 50+ job descriptions for that job's title into a tool like Voyant Tools, which will spit out all the most common words and phrases. Find the most frequent ones that seem important and relevant, and work them into your resume, even if it seems weird to refer to yourself as a "team player" or "entrepreneurial".
Don't be bad at interviewing, not even a little bit bad.
Being a good interviewee is a skill. Most of us aren't born with that skill, and most of us are rusty when it comes time to look for a job. I knew I wasn't great at interviewing, but I really didn't want to go through awkward practice interviews with friends, so I told myself people would understand why I was all nervous, and realize I was still super talented and experienced despite my 'rough edges'. WRONG. I blew it on a lot of interviews before admitting that I had to practice, a lot. I did a bunch of practice interviews, got feedback, and I even talked to an interview coach. The latter was expensive, but I think the dose of outside perspective really helped. YMMV.
I practiced enough that I started getting to final rounds instead of washing out in the first couple rounds. It made a huge difference. Practice.
Don't wing it during the interview.
For 'behavioral' questions (i.e. "tell me about a time when..." questions) everyone says you need to have multiple answers memorized for every major category of question. Ugh! So much work. Greatest weakness. Success story. Failure story. Conflict story. Collaboration story. YAWN. I thought I could come up with good answers on the spot. It's "supposed to be a conversation", right? WRONG. I blew it on a couple interviews before realizing I was coming across as both unprepared AND inexperienced.
Sit down and work out your bullet points for every answer, BEFORE you land an interview. Pain in the butt? Yes. But not as big a pain as getting an interview, blowing it, then ending up doing the work anyway.
Don't apply to old job listings.
If it's still up, they're still hiring, right? WRONG. I have found that job listings are good for about as long as fresh bread. You mostly want to apply the day they're posted, 2-3 days is OK, 5 days is pushing it, beyond that, it's literal trash. I started out applying to anything relevant that was less than a month old, and my app-to-interview yield was around 1%. Started applying to new listings exclusively, and my yield went to more like 3%. YMMV.
Don't apply to listings that aren't on the employer's own site.
It's become disturbingly common for 3rd-party sites to steal and re-post job listings they have nothing to do with. You click on a link on LinkedIn or Indeed, and you end up on Neuvoo or some random BS. Don't submit any of your info on those sites. Very often the jobs are expired already, but these 3rd-party scammers are still re-posting them to steal your info. Even if they're not expired, there's no reason to think they actually send your application to the employer.
If you land somewhere unexpected, go to the employer's actual careers section on their site and find the listing yourself. Otherwise you're just giving your info to someone to sell, and the employer probably never sees it. Please report these listings as you go.
Don't be too picky with job titles.
Unless your resume precisely "fits the profile" employers are looking for, you're going to have to apply a lot. I had to apply a lot. At first, I was exclusively applying to one title, because although I didn't "fit the profile" I didn't want to compromise. I ended up getting a really solid job with a different title, after I loosened my criteria JUST a tad.
Have a serious talk with yourself about how many months you're willing to apply before broadening your search, and don't talk yourself out of good jobs because they have the "wrong" title.
Don't be too loose with companies you apply to.
At a couple points in the process, I ended up with interviews at companies that I seriously didn't want to work for. I was playing the numbers game and I would apply to anything with the right title, even if I hadn't heard of the company. I figured if I got an interview, I would worry about the company later.
Difficulty: If you are on unemployment, this can lead to a sticky situation - if you turn down an offer, you legally can't collect unemployment anymore in many places. It's also pretty hard to justify to yourself turning down ANY interview if you actually need the money.
Have a loose idea of who the company is before applying, to avoid those awkward moments.
Don't stop applying until the ink is dry on your offer letter.
My advice is to apply to every suitable listing as soon as it's posted, which could be as many as 10-30 per day depending on your field and geography. If things are going well, you'll also have interviews going on during any given week, which also put heavy demands on your mental energy and prep time.
It is tempting to stop applying for jobs if you are doing multiple interviews and they seem to be going well. You need the time, and one of them has to work out, right? WRONG. It happened to me multiple times - I'd get further along in an interview process, I'd be focusing on prep, and I'd let my application routine slip. Bad idea. If your application pipeline runs dry, it can be another 2-6 weeks before the interviews start flowing again. ABA - always be applying.
Don't get your hopes up. (maybe the most important tip.)
Your mental resilience to rejection and your self-regard are finite resources. They are resources you need to conserve to maintain your overall mental health and good job-hunting habits. Job hunting can burn through these resources like Joe Exotic through a bag of meth. Don't be like me and get emotionally invested in any given job before you get an offer. Don't start picking out all the stuff you're going to buy with the new salary. Don't start thinking of what doors are going to open up for you with this step in your career. Don't mentally pick out outfits for your new commute. Just don't.
I consider myself a mentally tough person, so I should be able to handle the repeated rejection, right? WRONG. If you allow yourself to start caring about a job before you GET the job, you WILL be crushed to bits. Maybe not the first time, but after the 5th, or the 10th, it becomes hard to take.
To some of the newer job hunters I've seen on this sub: Caring about a job from the day you APPLY? Sheer lunacy. You shouldn't even remember where you applied by the time you go to bed that day.
Keep in mind: It's a numbers game. It's not personal. You WILL get the right job eventually, if you keep going. You have to maintain faith in yourself, but hold no hope for any particular job.
In emotional terms, treat it less like a poker game, (where any hand can be a big deal) more like a slot machine (where you care zero until you finally win). No matter how tough you think you are, take care to maintain your mental state, especially during COVID where so many aspects of life are also wearing down our mental health.
Don't be afraid to be a try-hard.
The role I finally got was based largely on a "take home project" used to demonstrate my working style. It was paid, also really long, the minimum suggested time was 10 hours. Usually I put 70% effort into trial projects, because I don't want to bust my ass for a throwaway, and I don't want to look desperate. My thinking is "Well, we're all professionals, so as long as I mention a few of the right things, they'll know we're on the same level, right?" WRONG.
On this one, I decided to go HAM on the project. All or nothing. I ended up putting over 20 hours into it, (the max time they suggested was 20) and came up with a total overkill amount of material, it was probably 20 pages worth, if not more. To give some idea, I spent like 4 hours just doing addressable market sizing, which everyone including me acknowledges is fairly pointless.
Part of the project was also to see how we communicate about our work - they put me on their company slack, so I logged onto it pretty much every day to update them on my progress. It was firmly in try-hard weirdo territory. But it worked!
So I guess my lesson from this is, if you're going to bother with these projects, be the one who turns in the blue ribbon material.
NB: Be aware of "free work" scams where they try to get you to do the actual job without hiring you for the job. If it's pertinent to the actual job and it's more than an hour or two of work, it should be paid. Unpaid trial projects that don't relate to the actual business are OK, but you'll have to decide for yourself how much time you're willing to put in for free.
Don't assume ***anything*** until it's final.
In 3 instances, I got much further than I expected in a hiring process, and in one I was blindsided by a rejection where I thought I was a shoo-in. #1, they interviewed me for the role (up to the final round) even though the job called for an actual engineer and I have zero engineering experience.
In #2, I blew an interview and got rejected. I knew exactly how I blew it, I got the yips and did poorly. So I sent an email reply explaining what I SHOULD have said, and that I really believed in the company's mission, and that I realize I was a poor interviewee, but I was working on it - they actually gave me another shot and I made it to the final round.
In the last unexpected twist story, they actually scheduled a final interview, then CANCELLED IT. I have been rejected for about a million jobs, but I've never been cancelled on. They said that instead of an interview, they would just review my trial project. I couldn't imagine cancelling an interview with someone you intend to hire, so I assumed this 'review' was just a consolation prize and the job was going to someone else. On the day the cancelled interview was meant to take place, they offered me the job. Huh???? Later that day I rode to heck on a flying pig and bought a snowcone there. But I also got a job.
On the other side of things, I was told directly I was the top candidate for a role, the only one who was really qualified, but because of COVID they were putting the role on hold. OK cool, I figured I was a shoo-in once they actually hired for it. Well, they re-listed the job about 45 days later. They didn't reach out to me. I messaged them. They told me I wasn't even going to get a phone screen for it. WTF? They lied to my face for no reason whatsoever? Yep. They did.
The lesson: Do not assume anything! ANYTHING!

This is mostly my reactions and rationalizations to the Brave event and how it's affected me a a player of DMK. I've been playing for nearly a year. I've experienced Onward, Pocahontas, Hercules, two Tower Challenges, the Lock Shock and Barrel Halloween event, Mandalorian, and now Brave.
At first I was okay with not completing things since I just didn't have storyline characters unlocked or leveled up to be of any use. But starting around that second Tower Challenge, the one where they offered Rabbit for a second time in a row, things started feeling off. The Halloween event was brutal. Lock, the premium character, was surprising in that he not only was 500 gems but despite being useful to the point of being necessary for one of the tasks he ended up being not that useful for the rest. Meaning even people who purchased Lock found out they couldn't get Shock unless they got lucky with drops or burned through a ton of elixir buying the needed tokens. Then the Mandalorian came out a few weeks later, and I didn't participate much but I did hear that once again the premium character wasn't as useful as expected. Kuiil needed to be leveled up before he could be properly used, and he had some token conflicts with characters.
And now we are at Brave, where people who had both premium characters and the premium attraction and the parade float and discovered they could not finish the event. They did everything right, and it wasn't enough. The RNG was just too strong - there were too many stages where people got screwed over by RNG or bottle necked by arbitrary cooldown times. Some people even had full Frozen collections to help, and were struggling! I had Fergus, Dingwall, and the Ring of Stones at level 2. Up until the last hour, I had no idea if I would be able to complete the event or if I would come up short.
And I realize it's only going to get harder.
This isn't fun anymore. I've never played a game where I needed to wake myself up repeatedly during the night, to stand a chance at completing it. For days at a time. I've never played a game that made me wonder if I could 'get away' with sneaking my phone into my phone-hating teacher's class because lectures cut into a character's task completion. This is supposed to be a game, not a job.
With Brave, the difficulty is entirely intentional. Gameloft didn't want people completing the event. Gameloft wanted people so frustrated that they caved in and bought a sack of gems. Merida herself was 10USD, and without any tokens her costume was 970 gems. Two 500 gem deals bring her costume to just under 40USD. Let's say you did your best, got all the Glitched Fabric, but still came up short 7 comfy fabrics. That's still 560 gems that Gameloft wants you to spend.
You just busted your ass for the "privilege" of giving Gameloft an additional 24USD of your money. Nice hustle.
And then there's the fact that Gameloft made sure only Frozen characters can get Glitched Fabric. And not just Frozen characters, but you needed Anna and her traveling costume (so 2 legendary chests, minimum) or the Fire Spirit with the Enchanted Forest attraction upgraded to level 1 (another 2 legendary chests).
You could also have it dropped from the Dressing Room if you have it at level 2, but with an 8 hour cooldown most people couldn't collect enough fabric before the event ended and were forced to spend more gems. Some people were lucky enough to have the Dressing Room upgraded all the way to level 5, which requires a total of 475 relic tokens to do. And the odds of getting WIR relic tokens have decreased, now that Gameloft has added Brave relic tokens to the chest pools.
And when an event ends...does it even feel good having those event characters you earned? Thanks to the 75 character limit, you're going to spend the next few weeks leveling them up and then be forced to box them up and send them Home by the time the next event starts. There are so many storyline characters that have so many tasks needed to collect more tokens, but event characters are mostly isolated and very rarely are able to collect tokens for characters not in their collection. So their main purpose becomes slot machine bait: they'll eventually be the next helper collection for a future event (that you'll have to lose sleep, buy all the premiums, and even then burn through more elixir or gems or even real money in order to complete), and anyone who wasn't able to get all the characters can try their luck opening a legendary chest.
I'm not even done with the story. I'm at the brink of my game getting bottle necked because I have over 75 characters which can be out and about doing tasks. But with recent events, they prove it won't matter how far along in the story I am. It won't be enough to complete events.
Now, each new event character feels like it bloats regular chests. All those event character tokens taking up space, all those event relic tokens that you don't need anymore because the relic token system is utterly broken and Gamelot isn't interested in fixing it.
All for what? For shoring up for the next hustle. For making sure you have fewer gems ready for the next event, tempting you to give in and pay cash. And maybe this is because I've only been playing for about a year while others have been playing much longer, but it is discouraging knowing that I'll never be able to complete many collections because it all lies within the slot machine legendary chests. At first I thought Tower Challenges were going to be a chance to make up for it, but I realized Gameloft hardly ever offers Tower Challenges and when they do happen you get...one or two returning characters plus an attraction, common tier. It's been a year and Gameloft has offered a grand total of 5 returning event characters. They have also added 25 event characters.
Free legendary chests are sporadic, sometimes a few will be offered as milestone prizes during events but for the most part we get one, maybe two a month. But not in January though, we get nothing this month. Spending gems is the only way to really complete a collection, but of course you don't want to spend your gems because you need those for the next event, but of course what's the point when the 75 character limit prevents you from really enjoying and showing off your completed collections. DMK operates on FOMO: fear of missing out. If you don't complete a collection during its event, it is extremely difficult to do so after without spending money, and Gameloft ensures that the rate of free offers is outpaced by new events. "If I don't get the comfy, it won't be available again for years. And when they release it again, it will be just as hard to obtain, so I might as well spend money/gems now." That's how they get you. "If I don't get Merida now, she'll be in a Legendary Chest, but she'll only have a base 2% chance to get, so I might as well spend money/gems now." Same thing.
I've come to realize I don't feel like I'm playing a game anymore. I feel more like I'm trying to see how much I can get away with an abuser. This is no longer a fun time waster, but something negatively influencing my life. Between the 75 character limit, the lack of usefulness for premium characters, and the absurd hoops needed to complete an event to screw people over with RNG and tempt them into spending more gems/cash, this isn't a game anymore it's just a chore. I don't see DMK getting better. So, I'm done. Let it go, as a certain Snow Queen would say.
I hope I don't come off as sounding dramatic. I only want to rationalize my decision, and help others understand if they are feeling the same way. I am not demanding that anyone quit or stop spending their own money if they still find enjoyment and satisfaction. I am not angry at anyone, but I will note that the more people spend real money the more it encourages Gameloft to rig things with less and less fairness. If anyone is feeling reluctant to stop playing or reduce playing due to the time and money they have already spent, this is a phenomenon called the sunk cost fallacy. It's harder to walk away from something when you feel you have invested in it. But this is a tapping game, and the only investment is whether you still find it fun and rewarding to play. You're never going to get that money back, there will be no payout at the "end". The only real loss is your money and time if you continue to play a game that is no longer fun.
In case anyone was wondering if I was able to get Merida's comfy costume at the very end, it doesn't matter if I did or not. Because I'm walking away.
I thank everyone here, and hope whatever decisions you make, you base them on your own satisfaction. Stay healthy and happy.
And in case anyone is wondering what else to do for a time waster, I picked up the inexpensive Stardew Valley and have been having a blast with it. Yes, I traded my kingdom for a farm.

Introduction

Last year, I finally got around to completing the grind to six T4 commendation ranks on both my Temporal and Gamma recruits. I had held off on this due to the perceived difficulty in doing so, and because the available information on doffing is essentially years out of date. With the help of a variety of resources and advice, I was able to complete this work in a far shorter amount of time than I expected. It was at that point that I first considered collating what I had learned into a new doffing guide.
The 2/27 changes to Admiralty pushed me over the edge. With the easy Dilithium from Admiralty removed, restoring older methods of Dil-farming became far more imperative. For a long time, doffing was one of the easiest of these. A variety of changes to the system, however, have made it not more difficult but less intuitive. With a proper guide, Dil-farming through Contraband Marauding and/or Colonial assignment chaining should be just as easy as it was previously. My goal is to provide that guide--and a broader guide to doffing as well.
Note that this is still a work in progress. I am releasing it now because of the recruitment event in progress, but I do intend to expand on all points which are simply outlined below.

Version History

0.1: Alpha release. Targeted areas for improvement besides incomplete sections include a more comprehensive guide to marauding (once I experiment with it a little more), a more accurate ranking of commendation difficulties (where exactly do Diplomacy, Exploration, Marauding, and Development rank compared to the rest?), and more information on dilithium grinding (most of which I know primarily second-hand).

What is Doffing?

A long time ago, STO included something called "Exploration Clusters." These areas included procedurally-generated missions of... questionable quality, mostly revolving around giving a random NPC a certain amount of commodities. This system was eventually removed for many reasons--one of them being that the missions it gave felt like something lower-ranking officers should be doing.
To replace it, the Duty Officer system was introduced. It allows players to assign duty officers ("doffs") to missions that are more fitting of a junior officer--auditing diplomatic correspondence, correlating star charts, etc. These missions take place "in the background," so to speak, and happen in real-world time. In essence, they are "fire and forget:" assign your officers, wait some real-world number of hours, and reap the rewards.
And speaking of rewards: through the doffing system, it is possible to earn XP, dilithium, energy credits, rare commodities, equipment, special bridge officers, and even additional doffs. When managed correctly, doffing can be quite lucrative on a number of levels.

What Makes A (Good) Doff

The short answer is that almost every element of a doff in some way influences how useful that doff is. Some elements, however, are more important than others. In this section, I will explain the various traits of a doff and how they impact gameplay.
Faction
Most doffs are aligned to a faction--either FED, KDF, or ROM, with the vast majority being either FED or KDF (and consequently usable by those faction's allies). Cross-faction doffs do also exist, mostly as special rewards or as part of C-Store doff packs. If you are buying doffs from the Exchange, always check to ensure that the doff you are buying is usable by your faction. By default the Exchange lists all doffs, whether your character can use them or not. Caveat emptor.
Rarity
Doffs follow the same rarity scheme as items: Common, Uncommon, Rare, Very Rare, Ultra-Rare, and Epic. The obvious benefit of higher-rarity doffs is that they contribute a higher chance of success to a mission. However, a particularly large benefit when grinding is that they also contribute bonus Commendation XP to a success or crit based on their rarity. Uncommons contribute +5%, Rares +10%, and Very Rare and higher contribute +20%. Thus, in many ways the rarity of a doff is the most important factor when grinding Commendation XP.
R&D School
Some doffs are affiliated with certain R&D schools, allowing them to be used to create certain items. Any more of an in-depth look than that is somewhat outside the scope of this guide; however, do note that R&D doffs are valuable even at lower rarities. Always double-check for this before selling, downgrinding, etc.
Department
Each doff either belongs to one of the six departments (tactical, security, engineering, operations, science and medical) or is a civilian. This is one of the factors that determines which doffs can go on which missions. There is little to say here beyond that civilians are generally worse than the other types, as they qualify for fewer missions.
Specialization
This is the other major sorting mechanism for which doffs can go on what missions. It also determines the doff's ability when added to your active roster. Note that many specializations have more than one ability; usually, the alternate abilities can only be obtained from sources such as lockboxes.
Ability
The ability is what sets the price for doffs, generally speaking. Some abilities are borderline useless; some have created the most famous builds in the game. For example, the Technician variant that boosts Auxiliary Power to the Battery is the entire focal point of A2B builds--and, therefore, Technicians command a very high price. Also of note are Aegis doffs, which function similarly to R&D school doffs. Do note, however, that for the purposes of the doffing mission system abilities do not matter at all.
Traits
Traits give you bonuses to the chances of various outcomes on certain missions. For example, a Peaceful doff may get a bonus on a Diplomacy mission. Do note that when farming Commendation XP, one should try to have as many Critical Success traits as possible but as few Success traits as possible. This is because Success chance cuts into Critical Success chance.
In general, be on the lookout for doffs with the Telekinetic, Shroud, and Resolve traits, as these are required for some very rewarding missions. Efficient is also almost always helpful when it appears. Conversely, Stubborn and Unscrupulous are almost always negative; for any departments other than Tactical or Security, Aggressive is as well.
Bound/Unbound
Like items, doffs can be bound to your character. This will ONLY happen if they are put on active duty. The major disadvantage of binding doffs, aside from not being able to trade them, is that most bound doffs cannot be downground into multiple doffs of lower rarity.
Race, Name, Quote, Etc.
The other descriptive attributes of your doffs are pure flavor and do not matter. Do note, however, that doffs with odd, offensive, or funny names can command a slightly higher price on the exchange.

Obtaining Doffs For Doffing

There are a number of different methods to obtain doffs--some more worthwhile than others. Before you waste time and credits, however, always check to make sure you do not have free doffs waiting.
Doffs You May Already Have

• Deep Space Nine Pack: The DS9 bundle includes three doffs. While most of the bundle can only be used by Federation-aligned characters, Klingon-aligned ones can in fact still claim the doffs through a Klingon version in the Zen store. (It also includes two scaling ground weapons.)
• Legacy of Romulus Legacy Pack: The Legacy of Romulus Pack includes four doffs, available to any Romulan characters across the entire account.
• Delta Rising Operations Pack: The Delta Rising Pack includes three doffs available to all characters on an account, including a Research Lab Scientist (useful for R&D).
• Mirror Universe Bundle: Also sometimes called the Legendary Galaxy Dreadnought Bundle, this bundle does come with one doff.
• Promotions: Several doffs have been given away for free in the past. These include the Lower Decks doffs, Neal Falconer, and the doff version of Holo-Leeta previously given out at conventions.

Worthwhile Assignments Rewarding Doffs

• Asylum assignment type): These allow you to exchange refugees for random doffs. While these are generally good deals, the assignments are somewhat rare to appear and (unlike prisoners) refugees take up slots on your main roster. I would also advise against exchanging high-rarity refugees in these assignments; there are some doff assignments (especially in Medical) that require refugees specifically. Try to match the race of the refugee to the Asylum's planet.
• Caitian Diaspora / Unforgiven of Ferasa assignment chains: Awards a very rare flight deck officer and unlocks a repeatable assignment to get more.
• Colonization mission chains: These are a major source of doffs, as one chain is available in each colonial cluster. They end by rewarding a rare doff and unlocking a repeatable chance at a very rare via critting on an assignment. This is the most common source of Very Rare Technicians.
• Consular Authority assignment chains: Found in the Alpha Quadrant, these chains each end with a repeatable assignment which allow one to trade one doff for one of (likely) equal or better value. Notably, this officer comes unbound--and the officer you send can be bound. Thus, this is an indirect method of "unbinding" officers.
• Cultural Exchange assignments: Available only to the Federation, there are ten of these (one is linked as an example).
• Exchange Prisoners with Dominion: Your best use for rare and very rare prisoners.
• Facility 4028 assignment chain: Rewards a rare prisoner upon completion and unlocks a repeatable assignment, Strike At Fugitive Support Network, which can award rare or very rare prisoners.
• Ghosts of the Jem'Hadar assignment chain: This assignment chain awards a very rare officer upon completion and unlocks a repeatable assignment which awards another on a critical success.
• Holodeck Performance of Hamlet: This assignment always awards a very rare doff on a crit.
• Instigate Defection: It takes a long time to complete, but awards a rare officer on success and a very rare officer on a crit.
• Investigate Temporal Anomaly: A non-repeatable assignment which awards a purple-quality bartender.
• Negotiate Prisoner Exchange: Allows you to trade a prisoner for a new, random doff. This is always a good trade for common prisoners, especially if you already have access to admiralty. Look for other opportunities for rare or very rare prisoners.
• Project Chrysalis assignment chain: This assignment chain awards a very rare officer upon completion.
• Reclaim Assimilated Borg Drones: Awards an uncommon or rare doff on a crit.
• Resettle Colonists: Awards five colonists on success.
• Special Deal on Entertainment Provisions: Awards an entertainer of the same rarity as the assignment on a crit.
• Your faction's academy has department- and race-specific recruitment missions which are free and award common doffs. This is a fine way to fill out your initial roster.
• Finally, many Marauding assignments have a chance of awarding prisoners.

Other Worthwhile Methods

• One of the best methods of helping a new character is mailing them unbound doffs from your other ones. Doffs can be attached to messages at mail terminals just like items.
• At level 11, a character receives their initial consignment of doffs. These are low-rarity, but free. Free is never bad. You will receive a few more as you level up.
• Likewise, when you unlock the R&D system at level 15 you will receive a cadre of common, traitless doffs. They are meant to be used with crafting, but can be used in assignments as normal.
• A number of story missions have doff rewards. These include A Fistful of Gorn, Facility 4028, All That Glitters, A New Warfare, Time In A Bottle, and the Halloween/Friday the 13th special mission Hearts and Minds. Of these, A Fistful of Gorn, All That Glitters, and Hearts and Minds can be replayed for additional duty officers. In addition, a Romulan captain (or one with Rank 4 in Diplomacy/Marauding) can recruit Rai during Mine Enemy.
• A nonrepeatable mission is available at both academies during junior officer weekends that rewards a very rare doff.
• As you are promoted through the Commendation ranks, you will receive free doffs from Lieutenants Ferra or S'stas. Any that you do not select may be purchased with dilithium, though this may be less attractive for higher-rarity options. In addition, Engineering, Security, and Medical commendation ranks will unlock additional doffs via your replicator.
• Admiralty missions will frequently reward colonists and prisoners.
• The Borg doffs available in the Omega Reputation Store are relatively inexpensive, given their quality. This is especially true for marauding Klingons.
• There are a handful of doffs available to buy during the Summer Event. If you are comfortable grinding favors, they are of acceptable quality.
• Several doffs are available through the Phoenix Box. Always check your promotions tab to ensure that you do not already own them--the game will let you buy them even if they're available to claim for free. With that said, if you really need higher-rarity doffs this can be a good source.
• If all else fails, the Exchange usually has exactly what you want. Do note that prices can be quite high.

Methods Which Are NOT Worthwhile

• "Upgrinding," or converting lower-rarity doffs into higher-ranking doffs through the assignments available at a faction academy, is absolutely never worth the time, dilithium, or doff investment. Do note that "downgrinding" assignments can be useful for fleet contributions.
• For similar reasons, the academy recruitment assignments which cost dilithium (general and R&D) are also not worthwhile.
• Fleet doffs can be recruited at many fleet holdings by spending an absolutely outrageous number of fleddits for each doff purchased. This is also never worth it given the cost. The main use of fleet doffs is when you need a specific one for your build.
• The Junior Officer Appreciation Event requires an absolutely outrageous number of particle traces per doff and is not worth doing. (A possible exception is doing it to get common doffs for fleet projects, but even that is highly questionable.)
• The various doff packs available through the C-Store are simply not worth the money based on the random return. The exception is, of course, when they are occasionally given away for free as part of a promotion.
• The various assignment items available from lockboxes or the exchange which can lead to doff rewards are not worth the cost. (There is some disagreement on this point.)

Doffing Builds

Faction
If you are building a character solely for the purposes of doffing, the KDF has many advantages over the Federation in terms of assignment access. You should be a KDF-aligned Romulan, however, as Romulans have access to a third set of doffs the other two factions cannot use. (If you have purchased the Legacy of Romulus Pack, they also have access to four bonus doffs.)
Race
Race only matters for the Federation; Ferengi offer a marginal benefit in reducing the cost of purchased commodities that may be required for missions. This is not generally enough to outweigh the advantages a race might offer other aspects of the character's playstyle. Play whatever race you would like to play.
Ships

• Suliban Cell Ship: One of three (technically four) contenders for the best possible doffing ship, the cell ship interior provides both a Trader contact to receive additional Trade assignments and a Suliban contact to run Tau Dewa Aid chain assignments. Frequently, those who own these will offer bridge invites to players who do not in order to allow them access to these assignments. In addition, it is able to transwarp to any exploration cluster. Unfortunately difficult to obtain in the modern game.
• Tuffli Freighter: The second prime competitor for the best doffing ship in the game, the Tuffli trades the cell ship's unique recruitment assignments for the ability to call a transport ship that can offer Transfer Prisoners and Turn Over Confiscated Contraband. All other features, including the transwarp, remain the same.
• Kobayashi Maru / Tong'Duj: The last two options for the best doffing ship in the game, though they are functionally identical to each other--and the Tuffli. These were a reward from the No Win Scenarios Event in Event Campaign II, and are currently unobtainable. If you have them, use them; if you don't, look on the Exchange for one of the other options.
• D'Kora / Quark / Nandi: These ships come with a trader contact, but also have additional benefits when equipping the Ferengi Marauder set. (I am aware that the Nagus technically works as well. I do not like to think about the Nagus.) The D'Kora is notable for being able to be had fairly inexpensively on the Exchange, and the Nandi for being available for an Epic token from the Phoenix Store.
• Amarie Smuggler's Heavy Escort: This ship also has a bridge with a trader contact.
• Excelsior-class ships: the T5 and T6 ones come with ten transwarp locations. The T3 only comes with three, but has a console that cuts transwarp cooldown in half (and can be had with nothing but dilithium). If you do not have access to any of the above ships (or only have access to the D'Kora but not the Ferengi Marauder set), this line is probably your best bet for a doffing-focused character.

Other Bonuses

• Assimilated Subtranswarp Engine / Gamma Synergistic Overcharged Core: These two do not stack, alas, but both are very useful for improving the speed of your assignment-gathering expeditions. Extensively-Modified Warp Core can also work instead, if you have access to it.
• Ferengi Marauder Set: Expensive in terms of Lobi, but a 10% bonus to all CXP earned is no laughing matter. Using it on a Ferengi ship also provides access to yet another assignment contact. The set itself can work in a torpboat setup.
• Transwarp Computer: Obtained with the T3 Excelsior but usable by any ship, this console drastically reduces transwarp cooldown time. That is useful for assignment-gathering.
• Astrometrics Scientist: Putting one of these on active duty will allow you to use transwarp more frequently, which is useful for assignment-gathering.
• Well Traveled: This trait, obtainable by doing well in Tour the Galaxy, cuts transwarp cooldown by 20%.
• Obviously, if you are grinding Commendation XP you should buy as many CXP boosts as you can afford.
• You will likely need a sizable stack of Gamma Quadrant commodities to grind certain Medical and Science missions. Other, more common commodities can be found in assignments themselves, replicated, or bought from a variety of specialized vendors.

The Uses of Doffs

Of course, what doffs are and how to get them is in service to for what you actually want to use them. Generally speaking (and not counting a few odd exceptions, such as the assignment in the Wasteland arc), there are four uses for doffs:

1. Commendation XP: Accruing Commendation XP, or CXP, allows for a variety of rewards. All ranks unlock titles, a free doff, the ability to purchase more doffs with dilithium (or EC, in three cases), and in two cases transwarp points and an enemy-faction boff. For Feds, there is also a uniform option unlocked by doffing. At higher CXP ranks, this is also a method for passively farming Fleet Marks.
2. Dilithium farming: While other, more profitable methods of dil farming (such as admiralty) have taken some of the luster out of dil doffing, there are still rewards to be had for building dil-focused doffs. If nothing else, it is a fairly passive source of dil that can also complement your admiralty efforts in the same arena.
3. Active duty: The most common modern use of doffs, putting doffs on active duty can radically improve the efficacy of your build--or may even be required to make your build work at all. Much of the build-focused subject matter is beyond the scope of this guide
4. Fleet projects: A still-important facet of doffing is turning in common doffs for fleet project progress. While there is not much to

Commendation XP (CXP) Grinding

Why Do This?
Recruits, free doffs, transwarp, passive flark grinding, a nifty uniform (FED)
Roster Optimization
Fed-aligned: See this link
KDF-aligned: Investigation in progress
The Easiest Categories

1. Science
2. Colonial
3. Engineering
4. Military
5. Medical
6. Espionage
7. Marauding (KDF-aligned only)
8. Development
9. Diplomacy (FED-aligned only)
10. Exploration
11. Trade
12. Recruitment

Guide to Grinding The Top Six
Particle Traces and other bridge missions, colonial chains, analyzing Gamma commodity properties, Undine BZ, Dyson allied/contested when available, one at K-13, one at the Research Lab, and two at the Dilithium Mine. Tour the Galaxy also gives exploration.
Guide to Grinding Diplomacy (FED Only)
Orias T-junction
Guide to Grinding Marauding (KDF Only)
Follow route, keeping in mind Beta borders

Dilithium (Dil) Farming

Colonial Transportation
Relocate to Borders plus Colonial chains--look for crit traits
Marauding (KDF)
Follow route, keeping in mind Beta borders
Get Contraband
Give to Security Officer

Active Duty Roster Optimization

Why Doffing?
Technicians are incredibly expensive
Where to Find Desirable Doffs

1. Support B'Tran (Technician)
2. Support Khazan (Projectile Weapons Officer)

Fleet Project Resources

Convert all doffs possible to unbound via OXP
Downgrind to white
Turn in to Fleet projects (Coordinate Colonization can take any white, even Refugees or Prisoners)

Conclusion

Conclusion

Sources

• u/allocator's excellent work on mapping doff mission locations in the Alpha/Beta Quadrants
• u/mdcdesign's Marauding assignment route
• \@ShadowDragon, whose Reddit username I do not know, for his kind advice on Colonists in Redditchat that is far more relevant post-Admiralty nerf
• u/redhotkurt's guide to farming on the STO wiki, which includes some information about doffing
• The sto wiki's Advanced Doffing guide, which is now solidly out of date but still contains much relevant information

Hello yall, its been a while since I posted my last mock. Its been interesting to see how the teams and prospects have moved around so far. Draft order is from Tankathon
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - TLaw showed that he was a huge bust yesterday, and that’s a perfect fit for a Jags franchise that loves their huge busts. Just kidding, of course. Lawrence did have a rather poor game, but he still had some bright spots in it, and there’s no reason to let 1 single poor performance overshadow the years of dominance he’s displayed. Lawrence is still a generational prospect who should be the centerpoint of the Jags for the next decade.
2 - New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, OSU - On the flip side, Fields has managed to finally break free of the pesky Zach Wilson truthers that have been hot on his tail for the recent weeks with a truly dominant performance against Clemson that showed off Fields at his best. He’s not the prospect that Lawrence is, but he’s one hell of a consolation prize. There’s definitely still some flaws that must be addressed, but if the Jets can build an offense catered to his strengths, there's no reason to not think he won’t be the QB that finally brings hope back to the Jets.
3 - Miami (Via HOU) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - There’s going to be a lot of chatter here about either moving down or selecting a different QB, but I think when a generational OT prospect like Sewell is there, Miami should just run to the podium and land him. He’s been compared to guys like Orlando Pace and Joe Thomas, which is a very lofty company to be in. Miami’s offensive line deficiencies are masked by how quickly their QBs throw the ball, and Sewell should be able to slot in immediately at RT, Tua’s blindside, and be a high level OT from day 1. There's no reason to overthink this pick. Just lock in and solidify your OL for the next decade.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - I am almost 100% certain Zach Wilson will go at 4. I'm not sure if it’ll be Atlanta picking him, but I can't see him falling past here. Wilson to Atlanta is a fit that makes sense in my mind if the Falcons want to begin their transition into a new regime. Matt Ryan is still a fine QB, but he’s aging at this point, and it's hard to say how much longer he can play at an elite level. Wilson, however, has played himself straight into the QB2 conversation, even though Fields has managed to regain hold of it. He’s someone who screams playmaker, a gunslinger who isn't afraid to use his legs to extend plays and someone who’s shown a ton of improvement over the years. His accuracy is excellent at all 3 levels of the field, and both his touch and his mechanics are extremely good. There’s a problem of him being a bit too aggressive at times, but IMO it's much better to have too much faith in your WRs than too little, something that shouldn't even be a problem with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Sure, the Falcons could try to run it back by drafting a defensive player, but they have a nasty habit of winning meaningless games, and this might be the closest they get to a QB prospect of Wilson’s calibur for the next 5 years. Better to move on a year early than a year late, and so ATL lands the guy who might end up being the face of ATL for the next decade. If Atlanta decides to trade down, SF presents an enticing option, and you can just swap the names of the teams.
5 - Carolina Panthers (Via Cincinnati Bengals - Sends 1.8, 3.73, 2022 2nd for 1.5) - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - Teddy Bridgewater is not the long term solution for the Panthers, and Carolina gets a good deal here to move up to secure their QB of the future. Lance is someone who is still extremely raw, with an absolute cannon of an arm and all the upside in the world. Despite the connotation around players with arms similar to his, he’s surprisingly accurate with the ball, having done an excellent job of avoiding turnovers in college, which is no small feat for any QB at any level. There’s also a big running upside here, as Lance is able to use his legs to punish defenses just as much as he can use his arm, as well as the fact that Lance seems to have great poise, never getting too rattled. However, Lance will likely need time to transition to NFL level competition, especially the mental aspect of the game. He’s got a tendency to just run if his first read isn't open, which has more to do with NDSU’s scheme, but it will still be something that needs to be worked on at the NFL level. He will also need to learn how to make pre-snap adjustments, something that a similar QB in Josh Allen had some experience with in college that Lance doesn't have due to the difference between NDSU and Wyoming’s offensive schemes. Still, there is a lot to like here, and as long as Lance has a great work ethic and maturity, this is a guy who could be as good as any of the QBs taken above him. It might take longer, but the success of similarly raw players such as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen should at least be a sign of optimism for the Panthers.
6 - Eagles - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - The Eagles have had some pretty severe regrets with their last 2 WR picks, but that should stop here. Ja’Marr Chase is the best WR prospect in the class, despite missing the entire year. That's just how dominant his 2019 season was. He’s an excellent deep route runner who’s exceedingly hard to bring down, and excels in YAC situations, someone who’s dominated some of the best CB prospects in the NCAA. This is a player who can come in and be that alpha WR that the Eagles haven't had since Alshon Jeffery was actually good.
7 - Lions - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Lions defense is utterly terrible, and Parsons is the best defensive prospect in the class. It's a bonus that he plays at the position where the Lions are the absolute worst, with disappointments like Jarrad Davis and Jahvani Tavai. Parsons basically does it all at LB. He blitzes well, he tackles well, he covers well enough. There's very few flaws here, mostly nitpicks, and Parsons should be a leader from day one who will help revamp the Lions defense.
8 - Cincinnati Bengals(Via Carolina Panthers) - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - Ja’Marr Chase will probably be the most popular pick to the Bengals for good reason, but I personally feel like Cincinnati must address their OL situation, especially with Burrow coming off that huge injury. The Bengals could have the best WR corps in the league and it wouldn't matter if Burrow is getting flattened immediately. That's why I have them moving down and landing Christian Darrisaw, the mauling monster of an OT out of Virginia Tech. He’s got the size and length of an NFL tackle, and he has excellent agility and balance for someone of his size. His anchor is very strong, and can be very hard to move when he gets set. There’s some cleaning up that needs to be done with his footwork, but IMO he’s someone who can start from day 1 and protect either side of Burrow.
9 - Denver Broncos - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama - The Broncos really need a CB, with Callahan currently being injured, Michael Ojumedia having a very up and down season, and AJ Bouye very likely gone this season. Patrick Surtain II is a CB who fits the mold of what NFL teams are looking for in their ideal CBs, and someone who excels at mirroring WRs, sticky as glue at times. He also possesses excellent ball skills, and excels at breaking at passes. There’s some questions about his short area quickness and long speed, and he needs to learn to stop lagging behind WRs, but he should still be able to be an immediate starter at CB1 or CB2. There will be a lot of eyes on the national championship game, and if he can shut down Olave or Wilson, it might boost his stock even more.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - Dallas needs CBs even worse than Denver, with no real building blocks in that area outside of Trevon Diggs. That should change with the addition of Farley. He’s a long, smooth and exceedingly skill CB who excels in press coverage. His hips are fantastic and it's almost as if he’s the WR at times. All in all, it combines to make a player that was trusted to hold his own on an island constantly, and excelled at it. There are some injury concerns here, as well as the fact that his zone coverage isn’t quite up to par at times, but the talent is absolutely here, and Farley should be a high level corner in the NFL.
11 - New York Giants - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - The Giants are lucky enough to where a WR prospect that I’d consider as good as Ja’Marr Chase falls into their laps at 11. DeVonta Smith has been utterly dominant for Alabama this year, lighting up defenses on his way to a Heisman nomination and a showdown in the National Championship. What is there to say here that Smith hasn't proven on the field? He led the Crimson Tide in receiving yards when they had 3 other first rounders on the roster, then did it again as the focal point of the offense after 2 left for the draft and the other one was injured for the year. I don't think he clocks in as super fast, but he’s got game speed and seems to be able to burn opposing corners. His frame and ability to deal with press coverage could be issues at the next level, but his route running is so good that he should excel from day 1. The small flaws in Smith’s game can be addressed pretty easily, and the Giants should be ecstatic to add a player like him to their team.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The 49ers actually need CB even more than Dallas and Denver. They pretty much have 0 corners under contract next year, which means that CB is a very dire need. And here goes the last of the CB prospects that I consider to be truly excellent in the big 3 of Surtain/Farley/Horn. Horn is a big physical press corner who’s played both inside and out in his time at South Carolina, giving him some versatility as he’s been matched up against both outside guys and big slots like Kyle Pitts. I don't think he’s quite as good at mirroring WRs as Farley or Surtain and he’s a little grabby at times, but he’s absolutely fantastic at disrupting them at the LOS. He should be an immediate replacement for one of the CBs that the 49ers lose this offseason, and be a great boon to their defense once their pass rush is back at full force.
13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern - Having seen what happened to Joe Burrow, the Chargers realize that they need to protect Herbert, lest he falls into the same fate as his fellow QB. They need to protect their franchise guy, and that starts and ends with bolstering the offensive line. Slater’s a bit of an interesting case as he’s a later riser who actually opted out this year, but he’s a fluid and powerful athlete who can both climb into the second level and erupt off the line to bully defenders, with a bonus of being able to play any position on the line. His footwork, balance, and hand placement is also great. Slater’s main claim to fame so far is that he was able to take on Chase Young and hold his own, which is an extremely impressive feat. There are some concerns that keep him from going higher, such as being a little stiff and issues when dealing with bull rushes, but the main question mark is if he has long enough arms to play tackle in the NFL. Still, Slater should be a ok OT, although I personally think he’d be better off moving inside and dominating there instead.
14 - Miami Dolphins (Via Minnesota Vikings - sends 1.18, 3.82 for 1.14) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - Miami kills three birds with one stone here, linking Tua up with an old teammate, adding the deep threat that their team desperately needs, and stealing the last of the top WR prospects from under the nose of their division rival. Waddle, like Ruggs before him, is a speed demon that excels as a deep threat, but he also reads the field well to know how to cut through defenses to cause maximum damage. He’d be a perfect fit in a Miami offense that really needs someone who can stretch the field. The main concern with Waddle is how developed his route tree is, something that wasn't helped when he went down with an injury, but if his 5 games were anything to go by, that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
15 - Cleveland Browns (Via New England Patriots - Sends 1.23, 3.88 for 1.15) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan - The Browns are a team on the rise, but sometimes it feels like their defensive line is just Myles Garrett. Adding Paye to their defensive line should help a lot with that. Paye isn't the type who racks up gaudy stats, but he is an absolute freak at fighting through offensive lines and collapsing pockets. He’s got very good hands and fantastic strength, which leads to him getting a ton of pressure consistently. In fact, I believe he actually led the NCAA in pressure rate in 2019 and 2020. He probably won't be someone who constantly gets 10+ sack seasons without a bit more developing, but he could definitely be a Clowney/Graham type of player who causes a ton of havoc and demands attention, which would be a huge boon to an already dominant Garrett.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE/DE, Miami - Haason Reddick has truly broken out and Chandler Jones is returning for the season, but that's no reason to pass up on the extremely raw but talented Rousseau here. Rousseau really doesn't have many moves and needs developing, but his versatility and ceiling make him a hard player to pass up here. And it's not like he doesn't produce, considering his fantastic 2019 season where he notched 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFLs. He’s lined up all over the defensive line, dominating with just his raw athleticism and high motor. He’ll be fantastic as a player at EDGE, DE, or even NT to start, and if the Cardinals can refine his technique more, he’ll be a huge mismatch all over the defensive line.
17 - Oakland Raiders - Daviyon Nixon, iDL, Iowa - The Raiders really could use some pass rush, especially on the interior. Nixon would be a wonderful fit there. As a serious freak athlete who’s dominated B1G offensive lines all year long, Nixon is someone who is best when he’s free to smash through opposing offensive lines, especially in one on one situations. His ability to cause serious problems down the middle should be able to help alleviate some pressure on both Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell, and give the Raiders defense a boost for when they aren't playing the Chiefs.
18 - Minnesota Vikings (via MIA) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State - Kirk Cousins is a good QB, but it seems like he’s consistently unable to perform due to the Vikings OL. In fact, the Vikings OL somehow managed to let in more pressure than last year, which combined with a horrid defense resulted in a seriously missed opportunity to make the playoffs this year. I have some faith the Vikings defense should improve with players returning from injury and becoming more accustomed to the NFL, but I do not have anywhere near as much faith in the OL improving. Minnesota has 3 building blocks in their offensive line in Reiff, Bradbury, and Ezra Cleveland, but that leaves at least one guard spot as a serious hole. Thus, they address it by adding Wyatt Davis, who’s been fantastic out of Ohio State. He’s been pretty good for the majority of the year, and was a big part of Trey Sermon’s baptism of Clemson. He’s already a fantastic run blocker, and his pass blocking is decent, although there will be some improvements here with his stance and identifying assignments, but I'm certain it’s something that can be ironed out with time. He should be an immediate upgrade over Dakota Dozier or anyone else Minnesota is going to play opposite of Cleveland.
19 - Washington Football Team - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Terry McLaurin is an elite WR, but WFT really should get him some help. After him, Washington really doesn't have any good weapons at WR. Time to fix that with the addition of Bateman. He’s a great route runner who can consistently get separation alongside extremely sure hands and solid YAC ability. There’s no question that this is a guy who knows how to get open, snag a ball, and fight for a few more yards, and his size and physicality would be a fantastic compliment with McLaurin, alleviating pressure off WFT’s star receiver. They should make a great duo for whatever QB WFT ends up anointing their franchise savior.
20 - Chicago Bears - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas - Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are not worth their contracts, and both could very easily end up being cut. A replacement at OT is needed here ASAP. Cosmi’s a tantalizing prospect, with tons of athleticism and a frame that shows plenty of potential as he grows. His pass blocking is pretty good, able to generally deal with speed rushers using his own quickness and he moves well as a run blocker, able to get to the second level pretty well. He needs to improve his technique and add some strength, but he’s a high ceiling prospect who could develop into a truly elite LT and lock down one side of the line for Chicago.
21 - New England Patriots (via JAX via LAR - Sends 1.23, 5.142 for 1.21) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - Mac Jones is a QB that has flown up the boards in recent times, having played his way firmly into QB5 at the moment. A smart QB with a good arm who makes good throws and has solid pocket presence, Jones knows how to read the field and make good decisions, and he’s quite good at going through progressions, something that even some of the best prospects in this class struggle with. I'm not too concerned about the fact that he’s probably close to his ceiling already, as the bigger issue for me is that he’s not very mobile, and isn't that great at extending plays, a trait that is pretty critical in today’s NFL. That shouldn't be too much of an issue with the Patriots OL, though, and as long as the Patriots can add some help at wideout, Jones should be a seamless fit in the NFL, especially considering how BB and co succeeded with a QB of a similar mold in the past.
22 - Indianapolis Colts - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - With Anthony Castanzo tearing his ACL, his time in Indy is probably coming to a close soon. That means LT is a serious need at the moment, especially considering how important the offensive line is to the success of the Colts offense. That's why I have them grabbing Jalen Mayfield, in order to reinforce their offensive line in the likely case Castanzo isn't coming back at full strength, or just isn't coming back. Mayfield’s dependable in the run game, and his feet are pretty good, even if he could use some more refinement technique wise. He’s not at all a finished product and has mostly played at RT in the college level, but if the Colts can fully utilize his athletic gifts, he should be a fantastic LT for them in the future.
23 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via NE via CLE) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida - The Jaguars need offensive threats, especially at TE where none of their options inspire much confidence. Kyle Pitts is probably the most dynamic weapon at TE here, and the Jags should be more than happy to pair him up with Lawrence as a versatile weapon who can line up all over the field and dominate. Pitts is a huge and pretty athletic player who fits more of a big slot type than a traditional inline TE, even though he can line up all over to best abuse his combination of route running and size. He’s not a good run blocker, but he gives plenty of effort and that's not too much of an issue anyway, especially in the modern NFL where pass catching is at a premium at the TE position. His route running and ability to get separation will be extremely valuable as a safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence as the young QB gets adjusted to the NFL level, and he should give the Jaguars offense another dimension.
24 - Tennessee Titans - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas - The Titans desperately need a pass rush at the moment. They are the only team in playoff history to make it with less than 20 sacks, which is a pretty ignoble achievement to have. It's something that must be addressed ASAP, which is why Ossai is a great fit here. A bendy speed rusher with the versatility to also play in coverage, Ossai would be perfect next to Rashaan Evans as both could play in space or rush the passer, giving the Titans a lot of versatility in that area. Having played Jack for the Texans, he’d be a great fit immediately, especially with his explosiveness and nasty first step. His addition should give the Titans the help they so desperately need at EDGE.
25 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia - It's hard to picture both Shaquille Barrett and Gholston still being on the roster after 2021, meaning that EDGE is something that needs to be addressed. Fortunately, they have a great building block already on their DL in Vita Vea, and Azeez Ojulari would be a nice addition to that very strong Buccaneers defense. In terms of pure pass rushing, Ojulari is probably the best in the entire class, someone who can rip through offensive lines with excellent hand placement and a lot of bend. He’s a bit weaker as a run defender, but this is a guy who can be a nightmare off the edge and lives to get after the QB.
26 - Baltimore Ravens - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State - Hollywood Brown is not the guy in Baltimore. He might end up having a solid Ted Ginn like career, but I don't think he’s going to end up being that star WR that the Ravens hoped he would be when they drafted him. So they go with a guy who could be that. Olave isn't the fastest WR, nor does he have the best hands in the class. He struggles against press coverage at times, he’s not even the alpha WR of his own team (That belongs to likely WR1 in 2022 Garrett Wilson), and it's hard to see much more improvement to his frame, meaning he’s pretty close to being at his ceiling. But he is one of the best, if not the best, route runners and separators in the entire class, which is high praise considering the other players in the class. Olave, more than anyone, reminds me of AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson, not in play style, but in the fact that all 3 were overlooked due to concerns against press coverage, possessing lower ceilings than some of their compatriots, and fears that they would mostly be slot guys, which led to Brown dropping to the second and Jefferson falling to 22. I think Olave should be a great player off the bat for the Ravens, as a high floor prospect who should be a contributor immediately, and could become the guy Lamar Jackson builds a rapport with at WR.
27 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC - After picking Justin Fields, the Jets need to protect their investment. Their tackle situation is fine, with Becton being fantastic, George Fant being serviceable, and Chuma Edoga as a good developmental guy/swing tackle, but their interior situation is a mess. Connor McGovern is probably safe, but neither Alex Lewis nor Greg Van Roten were any good when they played, and I certainly wouldn't want to see them starting again. Protecting the franchise in Justin Fields is extremely important, and so NYJ takes the next step in solidifying their OL with Vera-Tucker. Vera Tucker has a strong anchor, able to hold his own against bull rushes on the interior. He’s not an elite athlete by any means, but he’s good enough to where it's not a detriment, and his hand usage is fantastic, very sound in that area. I'm not sure he’s a great fit for the Jets current ZBS, but that very much could change with whatever new coach is brought in, and AVT is pretty clearly the best iOL on the board here. He should form a very good left side of the line with Becton and McGovern flanking him to protect the Jets QBOTF.
28 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame - With Villaneuva, Banner, Gray and Hawkins all hitting FA this off season, it’ll be hard to bring most of them back, meaning that tackle needs to be addressed ASAP. Liam Eichenburg isn't a physical specimen with a huge ceiling, but he’s someone with a solid floor who could start immediately. A part of a pretty prolific Notre Dame program that has pumped out a lot of NFL level OL, Eichenburg is very clearly well coached, a technician who has a fantastic mind who knows how to diagnose blitzes. His run blocking is also solid, as someone with a good punch who uses his quickness well. Overall, Eichenburg is simply a good player, which is perfect for a contending team like the Steelers.
29 - New Orleans Saints - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida - With Drew Brees projected to retire and Jameis Winston only on a 1 year deal, QB is a huge glaring need for the Saints. Yes, Taysom Hill is an interesting player whose versatility is quite useful at times, but I would absolutely not want him to be my QBOTF, and I cant see Hill ever leading an offense good enough to win multiple playoff games, much less a Super Bowl. The Saints need a concrete answer at QB, and Kyle Trask should be able to be that for them. Trask’s Cotton Bowl performance has probably put a bit of dampening on his hype, but he was playing without his top 3 receivers and Kyle Pitts, which basically accounted for the majority of his passing yards, with only a few practices to prepare, so I wouldn't look into it too much. He’s generally a super accurate QB with a quick release and nice touch, who knows how to use his eyes well, is surprisingly good at adjusting to pressure, and although no one would confuse him with Lamar Jackson, he’s at least willing to try and break off a run or extend a play. His main drawback is his arm, which is pretty weak, there are some mechanical issues that need to be cleaned up, and he does kind of make bad throws at times, something that was definitely highlighted in the game against Oklahoma. Still, he should be good enough to at least be a dollar store version of Drew Brees, which should somewhat cover up his deficiencies, especially considering the bevy of weapons the Saints have with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and the Saints offensive system should fit his skill set like a glove.
30 - Buffalo Bills - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame - The Bills should be laughing all the way to the bank at the pick. Matt Milano is an FA and it might be hard to bring him back, which is perfect for Buffalo when the second best LB in the class just drops straight into their laps. JOK perfectly fits what the modern NFL wants in an LB, a speedy LB/S hybrid who covers extremely well and can run around the field with a frenzy, rangy as all hell. He’s definitely undersized, but his mental processor is lightning fast, and his instincts are great. Notre Dame used JOK all over the place, at LB, slot CB, and even EDGE, and although I don't think he’ll be much of a pass rusher at the next level, the ability to move around like that would be a wonderful chip for Sean McDermott to use. Sometimes he’s too aggressive and his tackling form could really stand to be improved, as he seems to be more focused on getting big hits than just wrapping up at times. But JOK would be a fantastic chess piece to place next to Tremaine Edmunds on defense, a true difference maker at WLB who can cover almost anyone and just plays on another gear.
31 - Green Bay Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia - Jaire Alexander has blossomed into one of the best CBs in the league, but the other CB spot is currently pretty murky for Green Bay. Kevin King is probably gone in FA, and it’s hard to say who’s going to step up and replace him. OCB is a huge need here, something that needs to be addressed ASAP. Eric Stokes should be able to fill in there nicely, as an outside only guy who can play in both man and zone. His ball skills are great, he’s very smart when in zone defense, and he’s lockdown in the red zone, generally able to make plays on those fades and slants. All of these factors should make him a welcome addition to the Packers defense.
32 - Kansas City Chiefs - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - I really considered Jaelen Phillips here, but funnily enough, Zaven Collins actually almost fits exactly what the Chiefs look for in an EDGE rusher, a 6’4, 260 pound physical specimen who has serious pass rushing upside. His pass rushing ability is seriously raw, a complete work in progress, but there’s a ton of upside in that area, as he’s the full package as an athlete. He’s no slouch at the whole linebacker thing either. He’s fantastic in coverage, with great instincts and ball skills for an LB, when paired along with his fluidity and great feet lets him be a surprisingly good ball hawk in that area, with 4 ints on the year. When it comes to run defense, he’s great as well, great at chasing down players and getting through gaps, but he’s got a tendency to try to do too much at times and needs to be more disciplined at times. He’s also got a problem dealing with blockers, and he sometimes struggles to disengage. Still, this is a player who can line up anywhere from EDGE to WILL, and he’d be a perfect chess piece for the Chiefs defense that loves to disguise everything to use. Stick him with Tyrann Matheiu and you can really keep the offenses guessing. This is a player that should be able to immediately contribute at LB, and maybe even transition into a full time EDGE role if the Chiefs can develop him and make use of his many gifts. It might take time, but it's a risk they can afford to take, and Collins should be someone who can contribute on day one and only get better from there.