Hi, guys. I know we're trying to limit the old WSB talk, but I've been thinking a lot about the GME threads, and this won't fit as a comment, so I hope it's alright that I post this here. I'm shocked by what the community has become, and I'm sure you're seeing it, too: the onslaught of misinformation, delusion, emotional volatility not unlike GME's volatility, and (since Friday) sells at massive losses and debt... Oof. It hurts to see it. (But I still can't look away.) WSB has experienced massive communal losses like this before, but never like this. How did it go from a simple stocks subreddit to an echochamber of GME hype and conspiracy theorists? The threads from even just a month ago were radically different than what they were a week later, and even more different than they are now. It's fascinating. It certainly raises a lot of questions.
Here's my opinion: The GME community has plunged into groupthink faster than their stock price plunged to the ground (if you're not familiar with groupthink, check this out). But how did this happen so quickly?
Let's take a deep dive.

Forming a collective identity

We'll start at the basics. Formation of a collective identity is a necessary first step; you can't develop groupthink without the group part. From where I see it, WSB as its own collective identity certainly helped speed up the process of forming GME's identity. When the sub boomed, most members were, at first, generally welcoming (if not by old sub members, then by the thousands of new ones pouring in), and the lingo was easy to learn. It was easy to feel apart of the community. Not only that, it was exciting for new subs: GME brought a sense of solidarity. Just check out this thread to see what I mean. Whether their goal was to 'stick it to hedge-funds' or get rich quick, all new subs who didn't know much about investing felt an expectation, and maybe even certainty, in their GME investment: an upward spike was coming, it was only a matter of when.

Rhetoric

Rhetoric is very important to a collective identity. It's like an inside joke; other people might not get it, but you and your friends do. I was playing a multiplayer video game the other day, and someone came in the lobby with the username GME. Another player in the lobby got excited when he saw it. He said, "WSB?" and the first person answered, "to the MOOOON!" Instant friendship. Rhetoric strengthens camaraderie. It makes you feel like you're part of the "in" crowd.
This is another reason that the existence of the WSB community probably aided in the rapid formation of GME identity: new subs quickly took on WSB rhetoric. Diamond hands vs. paper hands, to the moon... you get the drift. New investors wanted to feel part of WSB, and rhetoric is one of the easiest ways to do it.
I want to talk specifically about the terms "diamond hands" and "paper hands" for a moment. These are very important terms for the GME identity. Prior to the GME explosion, I think WSB members would agree that diamond hands and paper hands didn't really mean that much. I would even say that diamond hands were viewed somewhat negatively.
Regardless, those terms are loaded with some heavy positive and negative correlations, and without the self-deprecation and self-awareness generally present in WSB, the use of those terms could easily slip into the beginnings of discrimination-- which is exactly what happened when GME took over. To newcomers, diamond hands sounded great! If you're investing in GME, you're not only part of the in crowd: you've got diamond hands. The sellers? They've got paper hands. They suck. You don't want to be one of them; they're gonna wish they were one of you. Now, we're subtly digging deeper into that "us vs. them" narrative.

A sense of urgency

Throughout the GME boom I saw a lot of people ask, "is it too late to get in now?" The general response: No. But you need to get in NOW.
There was a real feeling of time sensitivity, and there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding it: who knows if you missed your only chance in? Easily-swayed, brand-new investors wanted to get in. The idea of making easy money was certainly appealing, and there was an undeniable FOMO factor. When the young investor became interested enough to ask if it's too late and became spammed with comments to get in now, it probably felt like an easy decision to make. It probably made GME profits feel like an inevitability. Who were they to know any better?
Even if our brand-new investor had a chance to profit on GME, there were a lot of red flags in their decision to invest at all. They were emotionally investing, and there's lots of signs that point to it. And just like any emotional investor, once they were in, the easy-swayed, brand-new investor felt the actual implication of investing actual money like they'd never expected. They might have been certain of GME's upward movement before, but now, they felt the dips a lot more. I don't need to tell you how volatile GME's dips were-- they were bad. Our brand-new investor probably tried not to panic; the diamond hands vs. paper hands rhetoric probably played a large role in their ability to stick around. Our new investor didn't want to be a paper-handed fool. And they probably tried to convince other people to get in with the very same rhetoric, too. They had to! Their money was on the line now, and the end goal was to get enough people to invest so that the squeeze will happen, right? Right??
Oh, the squeeze. The very reason for our GME adventure. Because of its role, there was a lot of information being touted about short squeezes, a lot of copy-and-paste action, and a lot of outdated sources. People relied on a website called isthesqueezesquoze.com without much consideration into who was running it, or if it was updating in real time, or even how it would determine if the squeeze had been squozed. Eventually, the message seemed to become: if other people sell when they want to, then the stock price and volume will go down, and hedge-funds will cover their shorts, and our brand-new investor will be left with nothing. That's not fair, right? We can't even squeeze if people aren't buying on the dips, right? We're all in this together, right, guys??
Uh oh. You see where this is going?

Group polarization

Group polarization, which is a common red flag for groupthink, is the tendency of a group to make decisions that are more extreme than the initial inclination of its members. You've seen it: that leftist friend you have starts hanging out with other leftist people, and they become even more leftist.
For the GME-community, mid-to-late January was likely the biggest push for polarization. At this time, we had the emergency of more GME-community "enemies:" the mainstream media and big brokers. MSNBC called the GME movement a terrible idea, hedge-funds cried about their losses on air, interviewees suggested that WSB could be considered insider trading, others called WSB's move cheap and illegal. Shortly after the media attacks, Robinhood and other brokers began to shut down trading. The media coverage sucked, but this was a lot worse. Now, it was personal. GME couldn't trust the news, but now, GME couldn't even trust their brokers.
GME was angry. The threads were spammed. The general sentimentality was hurt, betrayal, mistrust, and war cries: how come hedge-funds are allowed to play dirty tricks but we're not? The news is owned by a bunch of rich guys, so of course they would be against the GME movement. The "us vs. them" narrative dug deeper, and now, it had more meaning: we're the underdogs! We'll fight our way up to the top by ourselves! Us vs. them!
The more that the GME-community grew, and the longer that they gathered in their threads, the more they mistrusted the stock market, and the easier it became to blame a lot of things on them. Not only that, but they felt more right. GME will skyrocket. This is getting national attention because we are succeeding. You can literally see the real-time descent into group polarization in the memes they used: "GME $100 is not a joke" became "GME $1,000 is not a joke," and then $5,000, and then $10,000, and then $20,000..... I believe there are some people out there that genuinely thought GME could break 5 digits. A lot of people genuinely thought it would break $1,000.
Stock peaked Thursday morning around $470, but that wasn't enough for GME. Even after it dipped back down to $200 at close, the community was certain it would boom again. GME $1,000 was not a meme. I can't figure out why, but somewhere before or on Friday, a lot of the community began to believe that $320 was the number to hit. The squeeze would happen after they got back up to $320. People went with it.
Friday morning, the stock struggled to go back up. When the market began to close, GME had one goal in mind: close at $320. Minutes before closing, the GME thread exploded, comments rolling in the thousands per minute, filled with the now-familiar GME rhetoric: "hooooold" and "buy guys! we need you to buy!!" and "GME TO THE MOON!" among many, many others. The ticker looked like a tug-of-war.
Market closed at $328. GME won the battle.
This is exactly where it went downhill fast. GME had an entire weekend to fill until the U.S. market would open again, and their win left them glowing all weekend. Here was the proof that they needed; if they could win a battle, they would win the war. Just take a look at the weekend thread to see what I mean. "Be prepared for the fight next week." "The media is going to try to scare me into selling? Nah." Rocket emojis. "Hold the line." Remember, this was an entire two days of celebrating their win: the more they celebrated, the further polarized they became, and the more they mistrusted everyone else. The romanticism might've been strong before, but it was getting stronger. I saw one comment comparing GME-investors to movie superheroes. MOVIE superheroes. Jesus.
In the midst of their celebrating, what did they do when someone said they should sell?

GME-specific rhetoric and the WSB fracture

Now that GME had effectively polarized itself, it needed some new rhetoric. The WSB stuff just wasn't extreme enough for them anymore. Hedge-funds became hedgies. People who doubted GME were spreading FUD. Hedgie-bots were a huge issue. GME needed to "hold the line." Do you notice a lot of the rhetoric became blatantly war-related? Wonder what the benefit of that could be.
But what about the old WSB community?
Towards the end of January and up through now, the ones who sold their stocks and talked about it were downvoted to hell. The polarized hivemind had decided that anyone who sold for any reason at all were weak, paper-handed, they would regret everything. The ones who cautioned others to do the same were even more so. And don't even think about talking about other stocks. What do you think this is? A subreddit for the whole market?
Some studies suggest that online rhetoric is tied to an increase in aggression. When a user feels like they're part of community identity, they'll behave the way they think they're supposed to, and the way that they see others behave. Our new investor sees someone call someone else a paper-handed tard for selling? Well, they'll do the same. Even if they don't feel that strongly about it, they might do it anyway, just to feel like they belong. It's all pretty much subconscious. There's not a lot of critical thought in the beginnings of groupthink.
If you said GME wasn't going back up, you weren't just wrong, you being wrong made them very angry. I commented something about how people should sell GME and one user replied, "you clearly haven't been paying attention at all. That is the most stupid bullshit I've ever seen. You truly are the tippy top tard of all tards." It's the perfect example for this: using the retard rhetoric, full-on aggression, etc.
Old WSB members were a new enemy of sorts. Anyone who said anything against GME were hedgie-planted bots aimed at creating FUD. (See how complicated this rhetoric is getting as polarization gets stronger?) Any other stocks? Distractions. Stupid bot, the hedgies won't fool me into buying anything else. The entire subreddit served only one purpose: GME, and GME alone. Everyone else can get out.
I think it's clear that we've arrived at the end of the line...

The fall of GME

So, the stock market opened up Monday, and GME charged into battle again. But it didn't go as expected: GME went down fast.
People were getting scared. A lot of them had probably invested a lot more than they were willing to lose-- there were stories of loans taken out, inheritances given early, rent and grocery money being spent. Even if they weren't on the brink of financial devastation, the losses were massive for some. That shit hurts. For emotional investors, it might feel like the end of the world. So, here's our brand-new investor staring at some deep red numbers on the screen, maybe more terrified than they'd like to admit being, wondering where to go next.
Well, good thing our brand-new investor had a daily thread to turn to! What would make them feel better than to settle comfortably into their echo-chamber? Here were users calling them brave and intelligent. Diamond hands! Keep up the good work! Tasty dip, get these discounts! There were copy-and-pasted messages. Our brand-new investor was swayed into buying this easily, so wouldn't they feel reassured this easily, too?
Then came the negative brigade. A lot of people came back for their 'i told you so's: get out while you can, stupid bagholders, can't believe you guys are still holding, etc... To the brand-new investor, these negative comments were like a cold slap of doubt-- at this point in the game, with our investor possibly thousands of dollars under on the first stock trade of their life, they can't handle the doubt. They probably can't even process their losses yet; it cannot possibly be real. The echo-chamber was certainly convinced it wasn't... So, these negative comments must be bots. Nobody really has any doubt. If anyone does, they just have paper-hands.
As the stock fell harder, the GME-community got really desperate. They tried to appeal to your pathos. There was a lot of "if you never sell, you'll never actually lose." A lot of "if DFV isn't selling, I'm not selling," ignoring the fact that DFV had sold more than enough to cover his initial investment. It became downright misinformation: Mark Cuban's comment urging GME-holders to keep holding was frequently turned into "if Mark Cuban isn't selling, I'm not selling." The VW squeeze was referenced several times as a comparison. Here's a great list of the misinformation spewed from someone's post earlier.
This was where the delusion really began to set in. Nothing, absolutely nothing, could be attributed to the fact that GME was steadily falling. At the end of every day, the narrative changed: the squeeze would happen tomorrow. No, the next day. No, sorry, the day after that. No one can be trusted anymore: the news is fake, the negative subs are bots, and hedgies are cheating! That dip was just a short ladder attack. That dip was just the shitty paper hands selling. That one was the hedgies cheating. Thousands of comments rolled in by the minute. Millions were accrued in losses, many by those who couldn't afford it, and yet, the GME-community lashed out at everyone else for doubting them. Wednesday rolled around and the stock could hardly break $100. But WHO were the idiots? The paper hands. The liars. The cheats. GME will return, they said anyway. The media is wrong. There was misdirected anger. Memes rooted in the thought that GME would rocket.
You guys knew the utter delusion that the threads became. I don't think I could describe it well, even if I wanted to. But here's the most delusional comment I've seen, the one I think perfectly sums up the GME-crowd:
"Stop questioning. You are told to buy and hold. Just follow directions."
Stop questioning. Just follow directions.
That is fucking groupthink.

What now?

I could really get into other contributing factors here. There have been a lot of IRL events that have probably been a catalyst for this; we've been seeing a lot of mistrust of the mainstream media, growing support for the rich vs. poor narrative, and mistrust of the government lately. There's been a lot of conspiracy theories and echo-chambers online.
I don't know the future of GME. I also know that there's some truth to the things that the GME-community has said: I'm sure there were bots in the subreddit. I'm sure there was market manipulation. But, like all truths man-handled by groupthink, it was warped beyond belief. Not everyone disagreeing with GME was a bot. Not all downward dips were market manipulation. But that's exactly what they believed.
So, where do we go from here?
There are many implications this phenomenon will have on an individual investing level and, with WSB, on a group-wide level. I hope that investors burned by the GME movement will learn the implications of emotional investing and FOMO-- we've certainly all been there before. I hope GME doesn't continue to become a massive conspiracy similar to Qanon (the rhetoric has evolved to be something scarily similar).
I'm curious to hear what everyone else's thoughts are. Let me know what you think.

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.
​
I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:

• Tasty Trade (TT) and Ally Invest have helpful articles and videos.
  • https://www.tastytrade.com/tt
  • https://www.youtube.com/c/tastytrade1/featured
• Ally training:
  • What is options trading? https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/trading-options-for-beginners/?CP=EM2012111
  • Top 10 options mistakes: https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/top-10-option-trading-mistakes/?CP=EM2012111
• 3 common option mistakes: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/library/options/common-mistakes-options-traders-make
• Common options strategies: https://www.optionsbro.com/basic-options-strategies/
• Investopedia has tons of great investing info for stocks and options: https://www.investopedia.com/
• Kamikaze Cash Theta Gang Videos: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOweupE79XXiBaeH_xBpkUcYUsrAaKQen
• 20 rules of professional traders: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/022715/20-rules-followed-professional-traders.asp

Don't trade until you understand:

• You can lose your entire contract value when buying.
• You can lose a lot of money when selling "naked", theoretically unlimited.
• How option expiration works.
• Theta (decay) and how it works. This is imperative since it's attrition when buying and a payout when selling. https://www.optionseducation.org/advancedconcepts/theta
• DTE: Days till expiration/expiry
• Options positions with respect to price:
  • ITM: In the money; strike is below stock value. Signif
  • ATM: At the money; strike is just at or above the stock value, often very highly traded. Can be very effective with moderate - long term expiry.
  • NTM: Near the money; strike is above the stock value, but fairly close. Slightly unofficial term.
  • OTM: Out of the money; price is at least a few strikes from the current stock price. I would say 10-30% over stock price.
  • Very OTM: Not a real definition, this is essentially a lottery ticket. Cheap, but almost certain to expire worthless unless there is explosive movement.
• Understand delta in general and how delta changes with ITM and OTM options.
• Understand all the greeks at a high level, as you get better understand them well. The greeks: https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/option-greeks/
• IV, IV crush, and how IV affects pricing. In general, you want to sell when IV is high and buy when the IV is low. Increasing IV is good for held calls/puts. IV drop or crush is generally good for sellers.
• Selling options can be quite beneficial. Once you have a good general understanding, lookup thetagang . Kamikaze Cash has good youtube videos on most theta strategies (linked above). I personally believe selling options (especially cash secured) is much safer and can consistently make you profits. Θ Gang 4 life.
• FOMO and how to avoid chasing a dangerous trend. DO NOT CHASE FROM FOMO!
• What intrinsic and extrinsic value are. Know how they are affected by being exercised/assigned and how theta affects them.
• Understand that some of WSB recommendations are straight up high-risk gambling and factor in the information accordingly. Be careful with Meme stocks and the survivorship bias on YOLO plays. However, I love the sub and think it’s hilarious. It has a lot of valuable information / DD if you are comfortable with the “colorful” language. It’s also great if you like rocket ship emojis.

Basics / Mechanics

• Understand the 4 "main" option types. Buying or selling a call and buying or selling a put. Spreads and more complex multi-legged option strategies are based off these in some way (see below)
• You can sell calls with 100 shares of stock or if you own an underlying longer term option; see LEAPS and PMCCs later. Selling calls naked is incredibly risky and often requires Level 4 (very advanced) permissions and usually a lot of capital. I will literally never sell calls naked since I don't want to ruin my life and end up living in a dumpster eating saltine crackers.
• Puts can be sold/written cash covered (cash secured), which means you have the cash in your account to buy 100 shares. Your broker will put this money on hold until the trade is closed. Puts can be sold "naked" using Margin and Level 3 (with most brokers). Your broker will hold a percentage of cost of 100 shares (often 30-40%, 100% on meme stocks) allowing you to sell more puts. This increases your available capital/power as well as increasing risk.

General Tips and Ideas:

• Don't EVER leave (short) spreads open on expiration day, close them. (more details below)
• Start off trading very small. Slowly build up over weeks / months. You need to get accustomed to a fifty dollar swing a day, then a few hundred, then a few thousand. You need to ensure you don't get emotional (see below). I started trading options with 5k, then 25k, 50k, and later over 100k. I added my own funds over time and used my gains to build my account. Don’t go all in immediately, that’s dangerous and unwise.
• Especially as you build up the amount of money you have invested, keep it diversified among several stocks.
  • Don't go all in on one thing, ever. Be able to take a hit from one stock and not mortally wound your portfolio.
  • A company may be doing great, then there's a major product issue out of nowhere. If you are overexposed in one stock this can really hurt you.
  • I had to roll options I sold that were about to expire completely worthless because FDX's CEO changed and the stock took a hard dip.
• Don't trade emotionally. If you realize you are emotionally trading for vengeance, you should probably exit the trade and cool off for several days with that stock. Same if you get caught up in a wave of hysteria.
• Have a plan for every trade, ideally with entries / exits that are specific values, ranges, or a set condition. This helps remove emotions. This is super important for strong movements and high volatility (see later).
• Use an options profit calculator from your broker or an online one before entering a "new" trade, especially a complex multi legged trade: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/
• “Rolling” an option: Closing your existing option and opening a similar one at different strike and/or expiration.
  • Rolling a call “Up” would be selling a call you own and buying a cheaper call at a higher strike.
  • Rolling a put “Down and out” closes your original one and buying or selling one at a lower strike at a longer expiry.
  • Better broker interfaces have a literal “Roll” button. I know E-trade does. You can manually do it by selecting relevant contract legs.
• If you have a losing trade, re-evaluate it. If your initial assumption is definitely incorrect, close it. Don't stay in losing trades forever and lose the entire value of the option over stubbornness. If you re-evaluate and you think your assumption was right, hold, potentially consider adding another cheaper option (or buy another call / put). Rolling out sold options can help here.
• Don't try to day trade, especially with options. It's statistically unlikely to be profitable. Day-trading with options introduces extra liquidity risks and is dangerous, especially with spreads.
• Try not to over-trade, you'll likely mis-time the market over time. When I get emotional I over trade, then lose additional money on wash sales. If you scale your entries into positions it should help alleviate your desire to exit positions when they turn badly against you. Whenever I buy calls I do it at larger increments after W almost made me loss my hair; luckily it eventually came back.
• NEVER enter a position on a stock you have no idea about, especially when you read about it online or heard about it from some rando.
• At market open options contracts are often volatile and inflated. Buying during this time can be more expensive. Options are usually cheaper mid-day, I read somewhere 2-3PM is cheapest. I’ve had success around 12-1PM EST after prices settle.
• Try wheeling on cheaper stocks once you get all fundamentals down.
• When selling puts if you are very bullish consider "doubling down"; note this is higher risk. Use the credit from your put sale to buy shares or a cheap call. This can be roughly inversed with puts, except I wouldn't ever recommend shorting shares.
• Learn from your mistakes. You can’t go back in time and beating yourself up (to a point) is useless. Make a physical &/or mental note of it so you don’t do it again. If you don’t learn from it, then beat yourself up so you won’t do it again.
• If you have friends that like to trade, I find it helpful to discuss strategies and planned plays. I talk openly with my close friends about my current holdings and planned trades, it helps keep me accountable. If I get a wide-eyed look, I might be doing something excessively risky or stupid. I’ve over-leveraged myself in calls twice and I knew I shouldn’t have done it both times. When I tell my friends what I did and I’m embarrassed, it exemplifies the face that I shouldn’t have done it in the first place. You will also get ideas for new strategies or plays from them. It’s good to stay versatile and use multiple strategies when appropriate. Beware of group think/echo chambers.
• I recommend NEVER telling someone what to buy/sell and when. I’ll tell people MY plays or what I like and why, but I will not encourage them to emulate what I do. Depending on the audience, I’ll tell them my exact positions along with my exit and entrance strategy. With closer friends I’ll offer my thoughts on their trades (if asked). If my friend is doing something really risky (one of my friends does some scary stuff) I may ask them if they want my advice, and provide it, especially if they overlooked a risk/event. I will not encourage someone to execute/enter a trade since it has a high potential for hurt feelings or animosity all around.
• Don’t fall in love with a stock. Just because something made you money before and you have high confidence in it doesn’t mean it will keep performing. I joke that FDX betrayed me when it started dipping and losing me money. I was over-confident of its bounce-back and sold too many puts too quickly. I’m in several losing trades because of it. However, I will keep good stocks in my rostetracking list or try different strategies or re-enter trades when they change their behavior.
• As you start to both buy and sell options and get more experience in general, you'll start seeing the two sides to every trade. You will likely start adjusting your strategies or trying new trades out because of this. Things will likely click one day. Most/all the greeks and options concepts will become almost second nature. For me this was when I could build an Iron Condor from scratch, which was a watershed moment involving a good understanding of many strategies.
• Understand Liquidity and volume.
  • Trading in low volume, low open interest contracts results in wide bid/ask spreads and difficulty having your contracts filled. Look at all the data for a contract, not just the strike and price.
  • Monthly Expiration dates typically have better liquidity.
  • Multi-legged trades (Common examples are 2-legged vertical spreads or 4-legged iron condors) have more difficulty being filled, especially on bad brokers like Robin Hood. Having very liquid options for all legs is extremely helpful in obtaining timely and well-priced fills, which maximize your potential profits.
• Time in market vs timing the market:
  • It is extremely difficult to time the market perfectly. If you wait for the perfect opportunity forever, history has proven you will miss out on gains. Keeping all your money out of the market has proven to be ineffective. Now if there is something serious happening with a stock/the market (like say a new pandemic), don’t go all in. I recommend entering incrementally at dips. If the stock has huge upside potential it may never go down, so it might make sense to partially enter at the current price.
  • IMIO selling puts is a great strategy to get into a stock you like, or at least make money off it. I think buying stock in lots of 100 is usually for suckers. Selling an ATM or ITM put (assuming the math works out) on a stock you were going to buy and hold is ALMOST free money.
  • I recommend keeping some cash available regardless. If you have a very large account or expect a downturn, hedging with indexes like QQQ, SPY, or VIX or calls/puts may be wise.
• Every trade can't be a winner. You will take some losses, you must get used to it. I don’t like having a realized loss of 1K or more on any trade. However, this will happen, especially with larger accounts.
  • As long as you win more often and beat the S&P that year I consider it okay. I’m kind of aggressive, so I consider 20%+ annually good. 30%+ annually is great. 40%+ and I’m dancing. After trading options I am almost baffled by my old belief that 5% annual returns (mostly from dividend ETFs) was “good”. That’s nothing to me now since I’m willing to take risks. Note: While lots of people danced in 2020, realize that’s an insane Bull Run year and is atypical.
  • Adhere to your own risk tolerance and never over-extend yourself, especially with margin use. Don’t make huge gambles leaving you uncomfortable. Only gamble with money you are willing to lose.
  • My personal strategy is to make safer gains for the year and then enter slightly riskier strategies using those gains. I can be slightly-moderately more aggressive and compound my gains. For me I often sell puts to make money, then when I see a big opportunity I’ll sell a put and buy an OTM or moderately ITM call.
• Understand it’s not safe to try and get rich overnight. However, once you hit big “steps” things may start to snowball. You can enter more positions and take more risks if you choose to.
  • For me this when I hit 50k, then 100k. I was able to balance low and moderate risk positions to more significantly grow my account. I’ll even do a high risk thing now and again because my gains can absorb it (assuming I have them).
  • I can’t wait to get to 250K, then 500K. I know it’ll take quite a long time, but I am confident I’ll eventually be able to have 500K and (hopefully) 1M in my non-401k trading account with gains and additions from my job. I can only imagine how “dangerous” I will be with that kind of capital.
• If you missed "the next big thing" like AAPL, TSLA, or the time machine I’m building in my basement. Don't get upset, learn from it. Adapt and become a better trader for next time.
  • Figure out why a company was so promising, before they mooned. Determine how you would have traded differently in hindsight. Apply those lessons to the next company you believe has long term growth prospects.
  • For me that's putting in 1-2.5k towards shares and/or buying LEAPS on it. Depending on my bullishness I may buy “cheap”, fairly far OTM calls. The far OTM options are sort of lottery tickets. If I'm right the (relatively) low cost will have explosive profits; if I'm wrong, they didn't cost that much so it's a calculated loss I’m willing to accept. For more serious bets I’ll buy ITM LEAPS to run PMCCs on. I also like to buy 1-2K in my 401k for very long-term plays.
• The stock market hates uncertainty, it seems to crave the status quo. A shakeup can potential tank a stock, even if it's nothing. With shares you can wait it out, but this can be problematic for options. If you see volatile/uncertain times ahead (politics, disease, manufacturing, earnings, etc.), you might want to reduce your overall portfolio risks or hedge.

Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation

• If selling options, it is a viable strategy to close early after a large gain with many DTE left until expiry. See TT videos / strategies on this.
• Don't hold options through earnings unless you literally want to gamble. I like playing on earnings run ups, but that can be risky.
• If you hold options through earnings, IV crush will happen immediately afterwards, devaluing the option. However, if the option is profitable enough, IV crush won’t matter, which will still make money for a call buyer. A sold put sufficiently far OTM will benefit from IV crush, even if the stock dips after slightly bad or lukewarm earnings.
• Don't throw good money after bad. Don't gamble on a recovery if your assumption appears to be wrong or the market is flat out tanking. If you are wrong and still believe in the company, wait twice as long as your original plan (wait for your 2nd entry point vs 1st) before adding to your position.
• Consider using stop losses to lock-in profits on rides up or sometimes use them to prevent losses. Note, stops can be easily triggered in volatile options. Now when I'm up a lot on calls (especially around earnings or large momentum run-ups) I always set stop losses. I have been burned too many times. In December 2020 I didn't set a SL on several thousand dollars of FDX calls I was already up on and I "lost" ~$5K of unrealized gains. If you're up big, don't get too greedy.
• A possible strategy if a stock is on a tear and you have multiple options open: Close some positions (I prefer to do this incrementally if the stock has momentum), but leave 1+ open in case the stock goes into outer space/the floor. Next, set a stop loss with a little buffer below its current movement / range so it doesn't get hit unless the stock falls hard. Finally, watch the stock closely and if it keeps rising, keep moving the stop loss up in little bits incrementally. This will let you keep more profits on a hot streak, but give some protection and secure more gains. It will also help eliminate FOMO if a stock exceeds your expectations.
• Have rules when to roll out, down & out, or up & out. I like TT’s roll at break even or at 1x loss and to always roll for a credit (or for me a very minor cost). Obviously these rules need some monitoring. Know your stocks, the news, and technicals so you don’t jump the gun.
  • If you roll early for a credit and you’re right, it’s not the end of the world. You’ll just need to hold longer, which will obviously tie up capital. Sometimes it’s better to tie up some money (especially if you aren’t paying interest) than eating a huge loss.
  • Rolling too late can be worse though. I currently have a very underwater FDX put I sold that is over 2x loss, rolling it does almost nothing unless you want to pay a debit or extend it extremely far out.
• On huge options gains, I strongly you recommend taking profits by rolling up/down or incrementally sell your contracts at several different prices (this is why having multiple contracts is nice).
  • Rolling up involves selling your initial call, then using a fraction of your proceeds to buy a cheaper, further OTM call with the same expiry; puts are inverse this. When rolling up I like to ensure the new option’s cost is 15-40% of my realized gains. I’ll buy a more or less expensive new optoin based on my convication to the stock and predicted movements. You can also roll up and out to get a further expiry and strike.
  • This is monumentally important if you are playing with incredibly high rising stocks or during a short squeeze.
  • Sad story time: I completely screwed up when I forgot to roll up, twice, during the GME gamma/short squeeze. I didn’t take my own advice; I didn’t have a real exit or transition plan and I got emotional. It all happened so fast and I was at work; the insanity of the run up and subsequent gamma squeeze caught me off guard. I should’ve clocked out and thought through the situation for 15-30 minutes to form an impromptu plan, then executed trade(s). My moderate risk tolerance coupled with my desire to take profits took over. When the stock partially cratered after a run up, I sold to retain gains. In the heat of the moment I thought the squeeze was squoze and it was going to plummet into the ground and I wasn’t being rational.
    • On 1x 4K call I would’ve made an additional 15-25K if I rolled up to a cheaper contract with some of my profits.
    • I know I missed out on significantly more with a 2nd call I had. Depending when I rolled it, it would likely have been an additional 25-50k in profits.
  • I talked about learning from your mistakes above. This mistake is branded into my brain due to the massive gains I missed out on by not rolling up. I’m furious with myself as I write this 1 week after the GME gamma squeeze, I’m a planner and I didn’t plan. If anything I own is significantly up ever again, I’m rolling up (or at least setting a stop loss). If necessary, I’ll roll up a trade multiple times to keep extracting profits.
  • Learn from my mistake so you don’t miss out on gains too. I strongly recommend rolling up when you are up big on a call / roll down when you are up big on a put. This enables you to take profits, stay in the game, and keep extracting more gains.
• If you trade a lot of options, talk to your broker about a discount. I was getting the standard $.50/contract with E-Trade, but I traded over 300 contracts a quarter and was able to get the fee reduced by over $.10 by just asking. I am now doing more spreads and condors, so once my volume gets very high, I’ll ask again.
• If you have a broker that isn’t great and you want to switch, leverage your current trading fees to the new broker. Tell them you’ll move over $### thousand if they beat your current options trading fee per contract.

Trade Planning & Position Management Tips

• As you gain experience, start monitoring what kind of Delta, OTM, DTE, etc. you are most profitable with. Use it in your future trades. You'll often see the tasty trade 30-45DTE .3 Delta strategy for selling.
• Before entering a trade, look at rough technicals like resistances and supports to consider your relevant strikes as well as entry/exit points. Look at upcoming earnings & dividend dates as well as stock/market news.
• Consider staggering strikes and expirations for safety and diversity; it’s nice to avoid assignment on 3 puts at once because you used the same strike for all 3.
• Incrementally enter positions on large rises/falls. One of my favor strategies is to buy dips after over reactions. By doing this slowly in large price "steps" it helps combat FOMO and helps you avoid getting slaughtered.
  • This will also help you avoid "chasing a falling knife". It also ties into having a plan.
  • I set alerts at several predetermined prices and I REALLY try not to enter new trades unless I hit my preset points. It makes me less emotional and usually more effective.
• Don't buy far expiration options with poor liquidity for shorter term plays. I bought 1x GME 1-year+ LEAPS call before the 2021 short squeeze. That was stupid, I should've bought 2-3x 60-120 day calls to have better liquidity. I also paper-handed it and missed out on my lambo.
• If selling options, consider rolling (for a credit) to avoid assignment when it makes sense / meets your plan. Rolling closer to expiration can be a valid strategy to get theta on your side. On the flip side, if the stock moons or plummets it could've been better to roll before it got crazy deep ITM. See rolling “rules” above.
• Covered Calls:
  • If a stock has a large movement range, I think it can be worthwhile to wait to open a CC after the last one is closed/expires. I have been more successful waiting for another opportunity vs. opening one immediately on the Monday after the second the last one expires.
  • Consider selling covered calls at all time highs/peaks. If you sell a CC and the stock dips significantly, and you think it’s temporary, you can buy to close your CC for a quick profit, then reopen it later.
  • If you own Meme stocks, selling covered calls runs the risk of missing out on large gains. On these stocks I typically only sell them further OTM than I normally would or not at all. If I do sell CC on a Meme stock I try to ensure I have 25-100 other shares that won’t be called away.

-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads

• Spreads (with 2 legs) are neat because they manipulate how delta and theta act. It caps your gains and losses, but you can profit with less stock movement. Try several spreads on a P/L calculator to see for yourself.
• Spreads usually require margin trading.
• Spreads allow you to define max losses (assuming you close before expiration day) and use less capital.
  • Experienced traders will open many spreads at identical/similar strikes to heavily profit off movement. Spreads can make you/lose you a lot of money if you are right.
  • For example. I could make a $200 premium off a $500 risk trade, max loss would be $300. This is much more effective capital utilization than a naked or cash secured put, however it does not have the same downside protection or “wheel” potential as a sold put. Higher risk, higher reward.
• Vertical Debit spreads: I think of these like mini calls/puts. I personally don’t use them unless calls are outrageously expensive or the break even is absurdly high, but there’s nothing wrong with them. A call debit spread will lower your breakeven and overall cost vs just a call. You can do clever things like making a positive theta call spread if you’re creative. I like doing this since I hate losing money to theta.
• Vertical Credit spreads:
  • Very good theta strategy to define downside/upside risks.
  • A put credit spread is bullish and allows you to bet on upward movement with less capital and defined losses.
  • A call credit spread is a bearish strategy that allows you to bet on downward movement. These are very cool since they allow you to sell calls without selling naked calls, which can ruin you financially. I see selling these as better than buying puts since it’s so much easier to be profitable; to be redundant, Θ rocks.
  • https://www.schwab.com/resource-centeinsights/content/reducing-risk-with-credit-spread-options-strategy-0
• I repeat this on purpose: Don't EVER leave short spreads open on expiration day, close them. If you don't close, they better be VERY far from the strike on a non-volatile stock. In after hours a stock can jump/dip below your strike and be exercised without the other leg to protect you. This can lead to massive, life ruining losses. This is not an exaggeration, google this and be scared. It happened to a fair number of people with TSLA. Video explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtVFj9nRRDo&t=315s
• Short Straddle:

Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation

• Learn about wash sale rules. They suck and are very easy to activate with options. This will eliminate your ability to write off losses. Over trading can easily cause wash sales. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washsalerule.asp
• Short attacks:
  • Learn to recognize these sketchy attacks by hedges/firms. They manipulate the market, it’s been documented countless times. A common one is rapid short selling, which pushes the price down.
  • Short Ladder attacks:
    • https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack
    • Some people say short ladder attacks don't exist. I've seen some very strange stock nosedives off low volume, so I tend to think they do.
  • If you plan well enough and the market doesn’t give up on the stock you may be able to use it as a great opportunity to buy the dip.
• Cramer explains how he intentionally manipulated the market when he ran a hedge fund years ago. Multiple links to the video are below since this video gets pulled often, Cramer / The street never wanted this to go public.
  • Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/cramer-interview-idUKN2036292620070320
  • httpss://youtu.be/r07Gg92YjOI
  • https://youtu.be/VMuEis3byY4
  • https://youtu.be/JEzsfPmh894
  • https://youtu.be/QFfjX8dW-QQ
  • Due to this video I don’t fully trust Cramer. His show can give you stock ideas to buy (or inverse), but you never know where his true loyalties lie.
• Plan for taxes if you are up big. You may need to over withhold or contribute to taxes quarterly depending on your situation. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc306

-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle

• Both of these strategies profit from little price movement. I recommend using a P/L calculator to determine BE, profit, etc.
• A straddle sells (or buys) two options at the same expiry and strike.
• A strangle sells (or buys) two options at same expiry with different strikes.
• Both these strategies involved selling a Call and a Put for a credit. Straddle uses ATM legs, strangle uses OTM legs.
• Limited max profits and unlimited risk. Due to the unlimited risk, I am not a fan. However, many people like these a lot.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-strangle.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-straddle.aspx

Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies

• These strategies profit from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. They receive a credit to open and benefit from theta decay. If your stock is range bound, these may be a good choice.
• These are both 4 "legged" trades, so you will have 4 trading fees to enter or exit the trade. A lower cost or zero cost broker shines here. However, “bad” free brokers will give you poor fills, which may not be worth the discount.
• Condors and butterflies have "wings" which are your purchased puts and calls. The wider the wing the higher the max profit/risk. The condor body can be riskier and skinny with a narrow high profit range or wider for a much greater chance of success with lower payout.
• An iron condor is built by combining a put credit spread and a call credit spread with the same expiry.
• An iron condor can be thought of as a modified short strangle with limited risk, and therefore a bit less profit. I prefer defined limited risk.
• The butterfly is similar except instead of a plateau it has a sharp peak. My personal mental note is that a condor looks more like a strangle with wings, while a butterfly looks like a straddle with wings.
• Pay attention to earnings dates when you open these, I have forgotten to check before and it led to bad trades.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-condor.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-butterfly.aspx

Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)

• The debit version of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to stay inside your defined range. This strategy profits from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. I’ve never tried this, Iron Condors make more sense to me.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/condor.aspx

Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Credit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• Can be harder to set up. I want to try these, haven’t yet.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-condor.aspx

Reverse Iron Condor

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Debit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/reverse-iron-condor.aspx

LEAPs

• LEAP Options are options that are long term with many DTE, often over a year until expiration. LEAP calls are great for long term growth plays (downtrends with LEAP puts) or simply when you really like a company and can't afford 100 shares. LEAPs (or any "longer term" option) enables you to sell a PMCC or PMCP (below)

PMCC / PMCP

• PMCC or PMCP are poor man's covered call (or poor man's covered puts). They are diagonal options often used with purchased LEAPs. You sell a shorter DTE call/put with a further OTM strike than your purchased call/put. For PMCC/PMCPs it is often recommended to recoup your extrinsic value as soon as possible, some recommend with your first call CC or put sale, to ensure you are positive if the option is assigned early. These have a lot of moving parts and strategies. If you buy a barely ITM call/put and sell a nearby strike call/put you run the risk of the purchased option getting "blown by" on large stock movement and ending up with a very negative losing trade. Keeping your purchased LEAP deeper ITM should protect you. Check your initial PMCC using an options calculation to make sure you don't screw up.
• I'm currently tinkering with these myself. So far I like .7-.9 delta call LEAPS with 30-45 DTE calls on my CC. The goal is to hold the LEAP long term, potentially until expiration, and constantly sell calls/puts on it that expire worthless. Typically the call/put is rolled up and out or down and out if it's going to be assigned, unless you don't want your LEAP anymore.
• Some people look at these many sold CC or puts as profits, I look at them as lowering my cost basis until it's zero (or even negative). I have a page in my notebook I write each CC on my NIO LEAP (I Meme stock sometimes). I find it satisfying to slowly see the cost of the original option disappear. When I originally wrote this I had ~2 years left on it and it's 9-10% paid for; that doesn't even count the actual gains the LEAP has.
• TT states this is considered an IV play, which I partially agree with. You want to buy these during low IV times since an IV drop will hurt your LEAP value. I look at them more as a way to sell calls/puts on a high IV company with a lot of price movement and potential upside/downside.

Advanced Orders

• Guide to several order types: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/order-types-from-basic-to-advanced-07162019
• One Triggers Other (OTO):
  • Good brokers will allow you to set these up, some will require a desktop to do it. This lets you link one action to another. In programming think of it like an if-then. You’ll tie a buy/sell to another buy/sell
  • Setting trailing stops on options is very chaotic since their price movement can be drastic due to volatility. I prefer to set my trailing stop to a stock.
  • What I like to do is set a trailing stop on a stock (or just link it to a stock price drop) and have it sell 1 share I own. Then it immediately executes a market order to sell my call. I’ve had good luck doing this with incredibly volatile plays were stop losses aren’t effective. I’ll often have an order saved and ready saved for when a strong run up starts. When my price alerts start blowing up my phone, I’ll immediately hit execute to turn it on.

​
Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.

"The greatest wealth is created by being an early investor... Making that investment requires believing in something before the majority of people understand it.

You will be mocked, ridiculed and criticized for your non-consensus action. It is absolutely worth it!" - Cathie Wood, ARK Invest

​
I have been following the GME and Silver Squeeze phenomena and I wanted to share my DD and speculation with you. I believe that everything has been leading up to this, and I have used what I learned from Bitcoin, Tesla, and GME to make this DD. I present to you:

The Silver Squeeze - The Triple Squeeze - The Silver Crusade

Disclaimer: This is in NO way financial advice, nor am I suggesting or condoning for ANYONE to do this. This is what I am going to do, and simply MY SPECULATION.

TLDR:

God Tier: Physical silver
Top Tier: COMEX futures, $SLV OTM calls and shares
​ Great Tier: $PSLV and $USLV shares, $GME (I am with you!)
​ Good Tier (miners): $EXK $AG $SVM $FSM $MUX and many others
​ GME was the millenial uprising. The #Silversqueeze is the boomer rebellion!
​ Before you begin, I encourage you to read about John Law, the Banque Generale, and the Mississippi Bubble: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Law_(economist). History repeats itself... Jerome Powell, COMEX?

UPDATE ON THE SITUATION: Current Phase: 1 - Cutting off the Supply / Driving up Demand

- Prepare for the MSM disinformation campaign to ramp up
- Countless bots on social media are flooding all platforms with disinformation and fear:
https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#aoh=16119453107704&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l928lobfuscation_misinformation_propaganda_and_gme/

UPDATE:

At this moment it seems like the reddit community has really antagonized the SLV argument, yet the calls sweeps indicate that there are big players that are betting on SLV. Personally, I am diversifying, to hit all venues. All power to you if you are getting silver while avoiding SLV, it all helps in the end. When nobody believes in something though, that is where the greatest reward is, IMO.
I have been contemplating the price action in the past few days and I see 2 possibilities at the moment:

1. Institutions were not in position for the silver bull run, but now they are and we will fly. JPM themselves are long silver, and they may actually be the very ones behind this social media trend.

This possible end was brought up in another thread on WSB:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/
TLDR: JPM wins but SLV holders also win - The COMEX closes forever, and SLV ETFs become the de facto paper for silver - JPM's heist is complete. However, silver and SLV holders still benefit greatly.

1. Institutions will hammer down the price again via futures and double down for a war of attrition.

We will see at 26.70 what they have in mind, that is they key price for either a hard rejection with stopping volume down to the 24s or back up to 30s.
I am leaning toward option 1. They are not stupid. They are not Melvin Capital. They saw what happened and they would much rather make money. They hold the most silver after all.
Social media is so very easy to control. We saw it with GME, we saw it with Bitcoin, we saw it with Tesla, we saw it with Trump, we saw it with the global riots. What's a few million from JPM or Sprott to push a movement on Reddit?

"Big Tech trades human futures" - Zuboff

PRICE ACTION MANIPULATION 101:

Their moves:

- They are scared: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1356354953221197824
- They fear the Mar. 21 contracts with 133,715 open interest. When you trade futures in a CFD trader, this contract is what you trade. This one contract controls the global price.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_volume_voi.html#tradeDate=20210201

Their current defense is trimming the shadow contracts to settle in March and adding to May, check the open interest yourself. They want to kick the can down the road. This could become a war of attrition.

- The effects of the #SilverSqueeze day 1: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_volume_voi.html#tradeDate=20210201

They cannot make new contracts for March because they are coming up for delivery. They are already overleveraged. It is already over, as long as we hold.

- They will allow exuberant investors to pile in on market open to ride the wave, even bidding it up in the morning to lure in buyers, and as buy volume fades, they will hammer it down with naked shorts via COMEX futures each and every day, coupled with negative PR and bots spamming platforms
- They will bleed it into the night using algorithms to short ladder and wash trade the price down on low volume (Trading with themselves beneath the lowest bid price), so that investors in Asia and Europe believe it is a pump and dump.
- They will pounce on any weakness as they grow more desperate. Sudden rallies may be countered with "dream-crusher" shorts and blow-off tops, and any bounces will be blocked off with massive sell-order walls. This is manipulation 101. Watch for sudden volume in spam, shilling, FUD on ST, Telegram, or whatever platform you may use.
- After consecutive days of punishment, many retail traders will lose interest, be shaken out, or wiped out from being overleveraged. Tight stop losses will be hunted.
- What they can do to counter us is to flood the market with silver to nip this movement in the bud and cover their overleveraged positions. However, in their greed - they will never ever choose this option and will attempt to manipulate through futures price action, naked shorting, and outdated media attacks.
- Another possibility is that a major actor with a large stake may reverse their short position and may in-fact become our biggest ally. They would stand gain while the others are liquidated.
- Another option is to divide and conquer - misdirect attention and cause FOMO elsewhere - while silver is pinned and bleeding, the next big thing might be pumped. The market is in a maniacal frenzy right now, this seems likely - Uranium, space travel or crypto are candidates.

Silvergang's moves:

- If there is no volume while the price bleeds, it is a short-ladder. No one is selling except their algorithms to themselves. Don't fall for this.
- Short attacks are are opportunities to buy aggressively to counter their move. This will make them bleed and think twice about using the same strategies.
- Be skeptical of the MSM - the sentiment seems to be positive as of now, but after building trust, they will flip the script once their masters instruct it. They will say it is over when it is not.
- The price action of the ETF does not matter at this point. Watch the spot price of physical!
- Physical suppliers have already stopped selling, in anticipation of the coming winter. This is a sign of success. Follow the MONEY, the POLICIES, and the PHYSICAL. Be prepared to HOLD and weather the onslaught of FUD and price manipulation.
- Remember that before we had computers, algorithmic trading, and quant shops, it was just Supply and Demand! For the majority of traders, intraday price action exists only to hurt you.
- It is very simple. Just do what they dont want you to do!

They are the End-Boss. They will not go down without a fight. Don't expect it to be easy.

​

Litany Against Fear:

"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."
​
- While pooling our money is illegal and market manipulation, and this post is not financial advice, this could be a possibility: https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354206025297973250?lang=en
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 ​

CREDITS:

Some of this is compiled info from other great posts such as:
https://gsiexchange.com/how-jpmorgan-is-manipulating-investors-to-hand-over-their-silve
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6novm/the\_real\_dd\_on\_slv\_the\_worlds\_biggest\_short/
https://www.reddit.com/Wallstreetsilvecomments/l9ijq6/silver_25_to_1000_silversqueeze/
https://www.reddit.com/Wallstreetsilvecomments/l9f26x/biggest_short_squeee_in_the_world_silver_25_to/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l68ill/the\_biggest\_short\_squeeze\_in\_the\_world\_slv\_silve
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l8uu76/the_gme_squeeze_will_bring_down_melvin_the_silve
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m02666PE9Ic
(Boomer experts)
https://www.desogames.com/shadowcontracts-and-a-history-of-comex-manipulation-in-2020/
https://www.desogames.com/a-letter-to-wsb-how-to-fight-a-financial-wa
Warning - Long read ahead. I ask you to read it fully with an open mind and offer your opinion, because I believe that we are on the verge of societal level change. I will keep updating this if there is demand.
​
What do you think? Roast it for the sake of discussion:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕 ​

KEY POINTS:

- A Squeeze of silver and paper silver is possible. There is a critical market inefficiency in SLV. This is not just a short squeeze, but also a supply squeeze and a gamma squeeze. A Triple squeeze if you will.
- Key is that the supply of underlying is only a fraction of the future contracts being traded.
- If enough contracts are physically settled, there will not be enough underlying, and this will squeeze the price
- In essence, the silver market will be cornered
- Up against JPM & co. Tough competition.
- They fear the Mar. 21 contracts with 133,715 open interest. When you trade futures in a CFD trader, this contract is what you trade. This one contract controls the global price.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_volume_voi.html#tradeDate=20210201
- The way Comex works is simple: On the final day of the previous trading month, whatever open interest is left on the next month has to indicate they will stand for delivery
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html?foi=O#tradeDate=20210128
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html?foi=O#tradeDate=20210129

The system is already broken. It is ALREADY OVER. The FRAUDEX is held up only to keep draining you as long as they can before they EXIT SCAM.

- COMEX inventory data: https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html
- If you open Silver Stocks, you can see that there’s 2 categories: Eligible and Registered.
- The last report says there’s 248,082,103.16 ounces in there. At $30 an ounce, that’s $7,442,463,094 to buy out all silver on the COMEX - so they claim.

49,617 x 2 = 99,234 contracts. Total open interest on Mar 21 alone nevermind the rest = 133,715

Total naked shorts right now = 34,481 naked shorts, or x 5000oz = 172,405,000 ounces of silver they can’t deliver but might have to. And this is PHYSICAL silver! They can’t print it, they’ll have to find it on the open market, or.. close the shorts

Naturally the same thing applies as GME: If they want to close shorts, they need to buy them back first.

If 50,000 contracts stand for delivery…. Well that means EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SHORT DOESN’T IT?! 100% OF THE FLOAT! Not to mention on a delivery failure the price of PHYSICAL silver will just 10x while the futures go to 0. We might not even be able to determine the price of silver anymore on any sort of global scale!

This is the Infinite Squeeze

- I love this play because it is also a hedge against a market crash and declining dollar

This is a gap trade - a wealth gap trade - and we are filling the gap.

- Silver has been manipulated for nearly 100 years
- true value of silver with adjusted for inflation is $1000
- Gold and silver are the only commodities in which the paper value reflects the price of the underlying commodity- They have been accumulating for 100 years
- The Hunt brothers had already performed this same play in the past, but the banks did not learn their lesson. They were only 2, but how many millions of regular people hold physical silver?
- The Hunt brothers eventually lost, when the Federal government stepped in and Federal commodities regulators introduced special rules to prevent any more long position contracts from being written or sold for silver futures. This is similar to what we are seeing with Robinhood and GME.

This is why it is imperative to buy the far OTM calls now.

- The Hunt brothers were over-leveraged, which was their downfall. Don't make this mistake. They were also 2, while we are millions.
- Through fake sell orders (shadow contracts), the banks have $2 billion in naked shorts on the physical market, and $70 billion on the paper market
- All fronts must be hit, physical, futures, ETFs, options
- For a $1 rise in silver, $200 million worth of short positions are liquidated
- After $50, the gamma squeeze begins, the gamma ramp should be built above 50
- At $480, JP Morgan and the Big 8's full position of naked shorts are liquidated
- After seeing GME, it is clear that they will lie, spread FUD, use level-headed fake allies to try to dissuade us, distract us, say that it is over when it is not, break the law and laugh about it on national television
- After 100 years of manipulation, over 90% of gold, and a significant amount of silver has been accumulated by the institutions. While they print worthless paper money, true wealth has been robbed from us. Who will help us against this manipulation?

Why SLV?

- As an investor why would you want SLV to get diluted? Why would you buy SLV when JPM is custodian is this ETF is most at risk of fraud? How do you make money on calls? Let's say you squeeze to infinity. SLV doesnt move because 1 billion shares were issued as a result?

The ultimate goal is to pressure them until they are unable to issue any more shares because we know they do not have the underlying silver in the vault.

They must issue more shares as demand for the ETF rises, to keep the price fixed to the spot price of physical silver. When they issue more shares, they must also buy the proportional amount of physical silver to store in their vaults, but if demand for physical silver rises and avenues for obtaining physical close, the ETF and its subcustodians become the only way to get physical silver.
Industry will demand silver from their vaults through the ETF.

Silver that we know they do not have. This is their Achilles Heel. This is what they truly fear. This is why there is so much FUD surrounding SLV.

It is not silver that is being squeezed to infinity. Silver is only returning to its true value of 1000-7000. That is only phase 1. My speculation is that the in the later phases of this movement, the ETF will be squeezed to infinity, because it will be the only way big tech and EV companies can obtain silver - or it will be closed and cash settled for shareholders.

In other words, the endgame is to reveal the fraud and destroy it. This is the case for buying SLV. Their fraud is an unsustainable bubble and while it is effective at controlling the market, if it grows too large, it will burst.

What can be done to help expose the fraud:

https://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm
Scroll to the bottom to "Submit Tips & Complaints" and detail the illegal naked shorting of the COMEX futures, manipulation and spoofing if evidence arises.
If you are paranoid, or just want to return the price of silver to its true value, or ride the wave for some profits, by all means go for PSLV or miners instead. It all helps in the end. If you really want to lay the hurt on JPM, a supply squeeze, followed by a gamma squeeze on SLV would do it.

SHOULD a $480 price be achieved. There will be severe consequences to the market, and probably the economy. Plan accordingly.

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Part 1 - Reducing Supply, Increasing Demand / Cornering the Market (See Bitcoin):

- Buying Physical Silver to reduce supply
- COMEX futures settling for delivery
- I will buy underlying shares of SLV, PSLV and physical silver
- Physical silver - dealers are already sold out, but this means nothing. They can claim to be "sold out" and have a stockpile in anticipation of the squeeze. They are simply not selling it to you.
- SLV shares - according to SLV prospectus, when SLV issues shares, they are forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount daily
- however, there are concerns about their integrity, be prepared for legal/media actions
- SLV is ran by JP Morgan themselves, and there is a concern that there is no proven metal, and only a few big banks have access, and can pay cash only in case of a default. Spoofing is inevitable and widely known. This is a legitimate concern.
HOWEVER, the whole point of this squeeze is to force them to PHYSICALLY DELIVER ON A SILVER RALLY ON UNDERLYING ASSETS THAT THEY DO NOT POSSESS! THIS IS THE REAL SQUEEZE!
- Silver futures - this is where some whales could really turn the tide
- the COMEX vaults only contains 1 ounce of silver for 100-500 ounces traded via futures
- the principle purpose of the future contracts is to actually deliver the underlying commodity, but because of traders settling with cash, the futures market has become 500x leveraged
- Once physical silver becomes scarce, and more future contracts are settled for physical delivery, the demand will overwhelm the supply. SILVER FUTURES ARE 500x LEVERAGED!
- They cannot lie if big companies need physical silver and they do not possess it in the vault
- Many are advocating that it is impossible to squeeze a commodity
- however, see the 2010-2011 short squeeze of silver (JP Morgan was short at the time as well): 481% gain
- It seems that JPM is covering their short positions already. Yes, JPM is custodian of SLV, but it means little, as SLV is managed by Blackrock. This is not a huge concern.
- The goal remains to short squeeze, if it becomes more profitable for JPM to indeed reverse their position, they could become our greatest ally against the Big 8.
- Miners - this doesn't actually do anything, but this is a way you can take profits without touching the SLV shares until the victory has been achieved.
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Part 2 - Gamma Squeeze (See TSLA):

- First of all - what is a gamma squeeze? https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/hxe3i0/can_someone_explain_a_gamma_squeeze_to_me_please/
- SLV OTM calls - buying far OTM strike calls forces the Market Maker's algorithms to "gamma hedge", buying the underlying asset to hedge risk for the OTM calls. A steady ramp is better than a large wall of interest at a specific strike
- I will be buying April SLV calls 50c
- if it begins to move, I will add higher OTM strike calls to build a gamma ramp
- holding to expiry and exercising will force shorted shares to be bought back to sell to the calls should a squeeze occur (See GME)
- At this point, the MSM will go all out with attacks using Obfuscation, Misinformation, Propaganda, in order to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l928lobfuscation_misinformation_propaganda_and_gme/
- While GME is seen as "oh look at those lovable idiots, I'm rooting for the underdog!" History may not be kind to the Silvergang if they do manage to crash the economy. This a different ball game. Understand what you are getting into.
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Part 3 - Short Squeeze (See GME):

- SLV, PSLV shares, HOLD while they struggle to meet industrial demand
- When there is no more silver available on the market, the only way to get silver will be through futures and ETFs
- 50%+ short interest on COMEX futures will be squeezed
- With rapidly rising spot price of silver, institutions and enterprise companies that need it may rush to hoard it, causing a steep increase in value along with the short squeeze
- If GME liquidating a hedge fund could threaten to take down the market, what could liquidating a bank or two do? https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l7bpf5/30_seconds_from_triggering_market_nuclear_bomb/
- They WILL change the rules if they start losing. All you can do is hold and weather the storm.
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Part 4 - Destroying the Fraud, Infinite Squeeze (ENDGAME):

"Do you see it now? Or should we finish this on the board?"

- Settle SLV shares for delivery once spot prices rises to critical levels, decouple the ETF price from spot price
- Physical and COMEX futures, especially settling for delivery of futures is damaging
- However, the ENDGAME is to perform a gamma squeeze + short squeeze like what we are witnessing with GME on SLV, ONCE the silver market is cornered
- PSLV is a closed-end fund and while Sprott will deliver, they do NOT need to buy more silver to replenish their vault
- SLV must. While they are most at risk for fraud, the price MUST follow the spot price, and as demand rises, they MUST issue more shares to keep up with demand
- The mechanism in which they issue shares is such that they MUST BUY more underlying shares proportional to the ETF
- While they are expected to be fraudulent, we already know that there IS NOT ENOUGH SILVER IN THE VAULT
- You can settle for delivery with SLV if you hold 50k shares
- When the prices of silver rises from the COMEX and physical short squeeze, the FAANG and EV companies that need it will be forced to settle for delivery either at SLV, or at their subcustodians, causing a ripple effect
- Eventually, if enough shareholders settle for delivery, they CANNOT DELIVER because they DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH SILVER IN THE VAULT
- Then the ETF price must decouple from the spot price. This is when the gamma squeeze can occur. Rapidly raising the price of the ETF
- As long as shareholders do not sell, and hold, like we are witnessing with GME, this can squeeze INFINITELY. THIS IS THE ENDGAME. THIS IS THE SQUEEZE.
- They are a major bank, directly linked to the FEDERAL RESERVE, they MUST DELIVER
- Silver bulls have been waiting for decades for this moment
- The system traps us in an endless rat race with circumstances that already doom us. Debt based fractional reserve fiat currency enslavement system. They exist to profit off of us, not help us. Creating booms and busts w/ interest rates destroying families livelihoods
- At this point, the Fed will get involved. It will get political. https://www.reddit.com/Wallstreetsilvecomments/l98bws/the_eye_of_sauron_shall_fall_upon_silve
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The Final Phase - Liquidation of the ETF - Blood Moon for the Big 8 - Taking Down the Beast (The End of COMEX):

- Bad End: Closure of SLV - SEC steps in - shareholders would be forced to sell at a time not of their choosing. Game Over.
- Another Bad End: JPM dumps everything below spot price. Weakhands sell everything for a loss. Banks win. Unlikely - Silver bugs have been holding for decades. There are many that will never ever sell.
- Should March Silver fail - April Gold is a good target: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html?foi=O#tradeDate=20210201
- Neutral End (brought up by this post on WSB: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/): JPM wins but SLV holders also win - The COMEX closes forever, and SLV ETFs become the de facto paper for silver - JPM's heist is complete. However, silver and SLV holders still benefit greatly. This would be the greatest exit scam in history... 100 years in the making. Trading COMEX for JPM.
- Good End: Closure of SLV - settled for cash. The strangehold is broken and silver returns to true value. JPM's heist via shadow contracts as custodian is investigated when they fail to deliver on physical to big tech. This is a possible outcome with good chances. Justice.
- Complete Victory: shareholders hold and squeeze the ETF shares and control the price as they please, physical, miners, and PSLV shares have skyrocketed. The world is changed forever. Silvergang now controls the ETFs and big tech must buy Silvergang's ETF shares at an incredible premium for the precious metal. Elon Musk must pay tendies as tribute to Silvergang for silver for his SpaceX rockets.
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Looking Beyond - Hyperinflation:

Here are 3 freebies for you Silver Surfers and Silverback Gorillas:

Understand this - IF this works. YOU will be the ONLY ONES not holding the bags. YOU will be the bank. YOU will make the rules.

- Jeff Bezos sold $7.2 billion worth of his shares in 2020. All the Eligible Silver in COMEX’s vaults is worth 238,447,113.735 Oz x $24.065 = $5,738,229,792.03. Assuming the COMEX actually has the title to it all. Jeff Bezos is not a nice person, but he is very smart person

Feb. 2 Jeff Bezos steps down as CEO from Amazon

- MORTGAGE, let inflation pay off the mortgage
- Companies with a firm asset base with no debt
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#SILVERSQUEEZE #SILVERGANG #SILVERSURFERS #SILVERBACKS \@darkpooltrade
I like the commodity. Alot. Good Luck To All!

“We choose to go to the moon, not because it is easy, but because it is hard." - JFK

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(FYI: The manipulation of PLTR angered me to the point that I sought to make the manipulators pay, and this eventually lead me to silver)

Introduction

Crimson Flower is often criticized for many reasons. One of the reasons it is criticized for is that the military campaign is too one-sided and Edelgard owns her enemies too easily making her opposition too weak. I disagree and believe her opponents are more competent than people let on and hopefully this post will try to convince you of why. Edelgard does win rather quickly but this has to do with her having a really strong army, Byleth support, as well as being very clever and having another smart tactician as opposed to plot convenience making her opposition incompetent.

State of war during timeskip

First of all, there is a dumb criticism of Edelgard that I want to address. This is to do with her being incompetent without Byleth because she made no major gains in the five year war.
While the Imperial Army is the strongest military individually, they are up against a united front between the Church of Seiros and the Kingdom of Faerghus who rival them.

It is Imperial Year 1185. Half a decade has passed since Emperor Edelgard ascended the Imperial throne, yet the continent of Fódlan still remains lost in a tempest of turmoil and bloodshed. In the Holy Kingdom of Faerghus, King Dimitri has welcomed Archbishop Rhea and her knights, who were driven out of Garreg Mach, to the Kingdom capital. As they work to build a unified front, the war with the Empire rages on to the west. Meanwhile, Claude, leader of the Alliance, staves off Imperial intervention by strategically stirring up conflicts between Leicester lords in an effort to feign neutrality. As events unfold, Edelgard and her Black Eagle Strike Force begin to take action in an attempt to break the war's current state of deadlock.

The Knights of Seiros may be small in number but as far as quality fighters go, it surpasses the Empire's.

Hubert: Yes, I suppose so. Although the Imperial army is powerful, if we were to compare the strength of our best to the best of the Knights of Seiros, we would likely come up short. The Kingdom's army and House Blaiddyd are also renowned for their unmatched persistence. On the battlefield, it can be assumed that their one and only goal will be to strike you down.

Also, the Church of Seiros is still very strong in Crimson Flower compared to the other routes.

Edelgard: Rhea, Seteth, the knights, and the others are in prime condition. They've set up their base within the Kingdom capital. The Immaculate One and her family have yet to fight on the front lines. However, we must eventually face and defeat them. It would mean a great deal to have you with us when the time comes.

The same should be true of Faerghus' knights who are taught to fight before reading and writing. Strength is the biggest value in Faerghus so the average citizen of Faerghus is more likely to be fit for military service which implies that the Empire having a larger population isn't as big of an advantage as it may seem.

Felix: Why? Hm. I never really thought about that. I learned to thrust a sword before I learned to write my name. Of course, my upbringing wasn't unique. That's how it is for all children in my country. You're of no use if you can't swing a sword, however mighty your Crest may be. It was the perfect environment for me. I could live free of stodgy values and virtues. Grow strong so you may live, and live to grow stronger. That's what I was taught.

Furthermore, in AM, when the Empire was numerically superior, Rodrigue did say that the Kingdom's forces are elite, thus implying they are on average stronger than the Empire ones but not enough to compensate for the Empire's military superiority.

Rodrigue: I'm afraid the difference in military strength is far from negligible. While we are elite soldiers, I am still uneasy about this...

In AM, where only the Eastern parts of Faerghus were free, Dimitri still managed to invade the Empire with an army that is half as numerous as the Empire's so I can see a united Kingdom and Church of Seiros having a military that has similar man power compared to the Empire.
Here is proof that the Kingdom army was half as numerous as the Empire. Gilbert says that the Empire has more than double the number that the Kingdom has but this is before getting the help of Charon.

Gilbert: We have received a report from our spy. It would seem the Empire is gathering troops at Fort Merceus. This is undoubtedly in response to us taking the Great Bridge of Myrddin. Their numbers are more than double ours.

After getting help from Charon and the Alliance, their numbers now rival the Empire.

Rodrigue: Even if we do receive Count Charon's aid, we still won't have the troops we need to face the Empire.
Gilbert: But if we join forces with the Alliance, then our numbers will rival the Empire's.

Conversely in Verdant Wind, the Alliance only has half as many men as the Empire, so do the math and you get that a fractured Kingdom is able to match it.

Ferdinand: We captured the Great Bridge of Myrddin, but the fight has only just begun. Enbarr, the Imperial Capital, lies far to the south, beyond Gronder Field. And waiting on the way there is the entire Imperial army, with twice as many troops as us. We had better brace ourselves.

Also, Edelgard suddenly going on the offensive when Byleth comes back is a great strategic move because they are a great morale booster which can help in making rapid advances. Also, Byleth's return would be devastating for Edelgard's opponents who would also be caught off guard by the sudden offensive when they only had to deal with a stalemate for 5 whole years.

Edelgard: Although we were of different houses, we were companions who lived and learned together. Some of our ranks are hesitant to battle against them. However, knowing that you're alive is sure to raise their spirits.

Finally, during the 5 year timeskip, the Empire managed to seize much of Western Faerghus while losing no territory of its own. Thus it stands to reason that while the war was at a stalemate, Edelgard was still slowly winning it even without Byleth's support.

Hubert: Allow me to brief you on the details of our situation. The Empire firmly controls the western portion of Faerghus. However, the central and eastern regions continue to put up heavy resistance.

All in all, assuming Edelgard is incompetent without Byleth is completely baseless.

Great Bridge attack

Claude was proactive enough to send Judith and her men to the Great Bridge. This is a clever move on his part because he knows how Gloucester is pro Empire so by sending his loyalists to the bridge, he prevents the Empire and the pro Imperial Alliance from linking up more formally, establishing trade and military ties, etc.

Edelgard: An Alliance stronghold has been built at the Great Bridge. We'll take that and then head north. At the same time, we must defeat the one who defends it, Judith von Daphnel. If we can also take control of Daphnel territory, it would be greatly beneficial to us. Prepare yourselves. The next battle will be a momentous one. Join me, my friends, as we begin our journey to bring peace and solace to this war-ravaged world.

...........................................

Hubert: So, we've somehow managed to take the Great Bridge of Myrddin. That means House Gloucester should now be ready to join the fold more formally. We've blown a major hole in Claude's plans to preserve the Alliance. We should press on to Derdriu before he has the opportunity to adjust his strategy.

Edelgard made it a goal to kill Judith and force her army to surrender creating a power vacuum in Daphnel allowing her to seize it immediately afterwards.

Edelgard: Don't let her escape! If we take her out now, the Daphnel territory will be ours! That will allow us to march safely through the Alliance.

Claude anticipated Edelgard's strategy and told Judith to retreat if she's ever in danger which would have allowed him to continue to hold on to Daphnel.

Judith: The boy said to run if I was in danger, but... I could never do that. I'll hold out until reinforcements arrive!

Unfortunately for Claude, Judith was too stubborn and attempted to retreat when it was too late.

Claude: It seems they've set out from Garreg Mach... That's sooner than expected. Losing the Great Bridge of Myrddin was a serious blow. So is the fact that Teach is still alive. On top of all that...Judith. I told her to run if things looked grim. Damn it. So many people will die, and by my call.

Although Judith did try to retreat after it was clear she would lose so it's not like she was incompetent but simply got overwhelmed. Most bosses stubbornly stick to their position and not retreat which goes to show how Edelgard's opponents are rather competent than the average opponents of other lords.

(If Leonie and Ignatz, or their substitutes if they were recruited, were both killed)
Judith: This is it... Claude, I'm sorry. I couldn't defend the bridge. All who are able, retreat!

If Judith successfully followed through Claude's instructions, the Empire's strategy would have been foiled.

If Judith escapes
Judith: Avoided death yet again, huh? I'll join Claude and prepare for a counter attack!
Hubert: Judith's escape will widen the battlefront. Our strategy's failed...

Furthermore, while Edelgard predicted Claude would send reinforcements, she underestimated how fast they would arrive so she did fail in her initial objective of securing the bridge before reinforcements arrived. Furthermore, she didn't properly predict how quickly Claude would react, which goes to show while she can read her opponents, she has some difficulty reading Claude.

Edelgard: We'll be capturing the Great Bridge of Myrddin, a key strategic location of the Leicester Alliance. Claude will surely be sending reinforcements, so we must prevail before they arrive.
Ally Phase Three
(Several Alliance reinforcements appear on the map, two of them being Acheron and Leonie, the latter if she was not recruited)
Edelgard: Enemy reinforcements... We didn't finish in time. Don't let them secure the ballista!

Assault on Derdriu

Claude's first act is to prevent the civilian population from leaving the city showing he's a morally grey schemer.

Hubert: Yes. The people of Derdriu have suddenly found it difficult to leave or enter the city. We can safely assume he is preparing for battle, but I am certain his plans extend beyond that as well. Do you not think we should take Derdriu at once?

This is the same tactic that Edelgard uses in Enbar so there's an obvious parallel between the two which is why neither Edelgard or Claude end up condemning the other for it.

Shamir: Our scouts confirmed the citizens haven't been evacuated. They're being kept in town.
Claude: I've got to hand it to Her Imperial Majesty. Using her citizens as a shield to protect the castle takes some resolve.

Edelgard managed to foil this strategy by taking over the gates that Claude had blockaded. These gates were full of Alliance troops so taking them prevented Alliance reinforcements too.

Edelgard: It seems Claude has blockaded the city and occupied the naval port.
Hubert: Heh. If that is the case, he will have no choice but to engage us from there.
Edelgard: Yes. Though putting myself in Claude's place leaves me with an unpleasant feeling... If we take over the port and close the entry to the city, Derdriu will be under our control. Each soldier should bear that in mind as they advance.

...............................................

Enemies are meeting Alliance reinforcements in front of the gates that lead to Derdriu. Defeat the enemies in front of the gates to stall the reinforcements!

When Edelgard starts attacking Derdriu, Claude ends up flanking her army with Almyran troops. She was caught completely off guard which goes to show she can't really predict him. It is quite unpredictable because the Almyrans are feared by the Alliance and Claude's heritage is a secret.

Claude: Now it's our turn, Almyra's elite! Strike the flanks of the Imperial army!
(The ships on the right side of the map appear, as does Nader and two Almyran Soldiers.)
Claude: Those fangs and claws the Alliance fears so much will now be their salvation!
Nader: Leave it to us, kiddo! My undefeated streak will live on. Another chapter in my heroic saga!
Edelgard: That flag and banner... Is that the Almyran army? Ugh, you really did it, Claude!

An oft-repeated criticism of the military campaign against the Alliance is that it happens too quickly and Claude ends up turning into a joke due to how quickly he loses. I disagree with this take because as I've shown below, even when united, the Alliance is half as strong as the Empire in terms of manpower as shown in Verdant Wind.

Ferdinand: We captured the Great Bridge of Myrddin, but the fight has only just begun. Enbarr, the Imperial Capital, lies far to the south, beyond Gronder Field. And waiting on the way there is the entire Imperial army, with twice as many troops as us. We had better brace ourselves.

Right now the anti Imperial Alliance is half as strong considering how the pro and anti Imperial forces within the Alliance are roughly equal in strength. Therefore, the Imperial army may very well be 4 times as stronger than the Alliance army.

Edelgard: Since the beginning, territories within the Alliance have been split between those who support the Empire and those who oppose it. Claude has been acting as an intermediary between the two, essentially keeping the Alliance pacified. As both sides are of equal strength, he's created a situation in which they've all agreed to avoid fighting each other and causing undue bloodshed. By carrying on as though the Alliance is united, he's minimized the Empire's influence there.

Finally, its not like Claude is ideologically opposed to Edelgard so him guaranteeing its safety in Edelgard's hands isn't a major loss especially when he can simply return to Almyra so I don't see how Claude got screwed in CF anymore than the other non VW routes.

Claude: Too true. It's best if I leave this place altogether. I'll just have to find some other way to pay back my debt to you. All I ask is that you go easy on the Alliance. After all, no one there would dare defy you. And please, treat my former classmates well. I've asked them to cooperate with you if I lost.

Defense of Garreg Mach

After taking the Alliance, the main body of the Imperial Army moves to the Alliance in preparation to attack the Kingdom.

Soldier: The main body of the Imperial army is moving to the western region of the former Alliance territory to attack the kingdom. The time when victory or defeat will be decided between us and the Kingdom is close at hand.

This made it the perfect opportunity for the Church of Seiros to launch an attack on Garreg Mach because the Imperial Army is now more spread out.
The Church of Seiros uses Rhea's army to engage the Imperial army. This is done as a diversion so that another force can infiltrate the monastery.

Alois: Lady Rhea and Catherine are holding back most of the Empire's army. Thereby leaving us, the expeditionary force, free to recapture the monastery! (If Alois was not recruited)

Edelgard and Hubert deduce that the Church of Seiros will have an advantage due to knowing the terrain and secrets very well.

Edelgard: Our enemy knows Garreg Mach from inside and out. They can come and go as they please. It would have been best if we had detected them sooner, but that can't be helped. Professor. We must hurry and intercept them ourselves. I'll leave the preparations to you.
(Byleth nods.)
Hubert: Heh. The battle looks to be rather cumbersome. We are still guarding all of Garreg Mach, but there are undoubtedly numerous secret passages and magic traps... There is still much about this place that we do not know. It is quite possible that they will attack from a location we cannot anticipate.

Certainly, the Church of Seiros uses the forest to hide troops in such as Flayn. They also utilize fire to create an opening in order to create another breach point.
Enemy Phase Two

Seteth: Now!
Edelgard: Come at me, so that I may put you out of your misery! (Flayn and several Church Soldiers appear on the right side of the map.
Flayn: The time is now! As long as we stand here, you shall not pass!

Enemy Phase Twelve

Alois: Now! Light it up! Like the goddess's fiery wrath, these flames will engulf our enemies. (If Alois not recruited)
(Upper part of the map becomes engulfed in flames. Another capture tile becomes available to the enemy.)
Shamir: Great. A path has opened for us. (If Shamir was not recruited)

While the Empire managed to repel the expeditionary force that tried to take the monastery, the Imperial Army fighting Rhea and Catherine's army ended up getting decimated. The decimation of the army was so bad that Randolph and Ladislava, both highly respected Imperial generals, end up dying.

Catherine: Lady Rhea. The unit that invaded the monastery has been completely driven away. We were able to make a clean sweep of those who came to attack us. However, I fear we can do nothing but retreat for now.

....................................................................

Randolph: It will do no good. I can't be saved... You must know that. Ladislava has also passed... The enemy has withdrawn... You are safe now...

I like how in CF, you end up losing two highly ranked members of the army. Compare that to the other routes where you don't really lose anyone on your side after time-skip as a result of a battle.

Arianrhod

Edelgard tried to get House Rowe to defect so that the Empire can seize Arianrhod without a fight. Her plan was foiled by Rodrigue entering the city and taking charge which shows how Rodrigue is quite intelligent and proactive in foiling any attempts at betrayal. Makes sense as he is known as the Shield of Faerghus and proves his title by defending the loyalist portion of the Kingdom from the combined strength of the Empire and Dukedom.

Edelgard: What about House Rowe in Arianrhod, the Fortress City? Will they not side with us?
Hubert: The head of House Fraldarius, Lord Rodrigue, has entered the city. It is possible that he has seized it.
Edelgard: I see. Then it might prove too difficult to strike Fhirdiad right away.

Anyhow a month later, Edelgard concocts another scheme to take Arianrhod. Basically she spreads the information to her entire army to prepare for an assault on Fhirdiad while in reality preparing to take Arianrhod instead.

Edelgard: The time has come to invade the Kingdom capital. Or so I declared. In truth, we'll be advancing to a different location. Only you and the rest of the Black Eagle Strike Force can know. Please bear that in mind.

Edelgard's strategy allowed her to fool Rodrigue into sending some of his troops to the capital. It exploits Rodrigue's loyalty to Dimitri as he is certainly going to make sure Dimitri is safe. It also exploits Cornelia's arrogance, who was sure that TWSITD have Edelgard under their control.

Rodrigue: Cornelia! I have a report from our scouts. The Imperial army that departed from Garreg Mach en route to the capital now appears to be marching here.
Cornelia: What did you just say?!
Rodrigue: The speed of the army's movement quickens... They will be here to invade within days. I just sent some of my troops to support the capital. It is likely to be a fierce fight...
Cornelia: How could this be? I have not heard a thing about... Ah... I understand now. I am the target.

With this move, Edelgard managed to play Cornelia like a puppet, the same individual who plays Faerghus like a puppet.

Cornelia: Ah... All is in accordance with this carefully crafted script of ours... What a masterpiece! What a delightful dance... (Note: this line was mistranslated from the original Japanese text. The original line aligns to "Ah, so this... is the script you have carefully crafted... What a masterpiece! The ones that were being forced to dance around were in fact...us!")

Of course, Arundel saw through Edelgard's ploy and punished her for it by destroying Arianrhod, causing a huge amount of casualties in Edelgard's army as well as her new allies.

Hubert: Ah, my apologies. I, of all people, should be able to control my discomposure. The pillars of light descended and exploded, resulting in the complete destruction of the main building and the north wall. It is believed that all key people within House Rowe, including its leader, were killed. Of the Imperial officers and men we kept at Arianrhod, about a third are unaccounted for...
Edelgard: It can't be true... So...this is my uncle's trump card. In exchange for striking down Cornelia, he has destroyed Arianrhod!

Edelgard managed to turn around the bad situation with a propaganda coup boosting morale in her army. She kills two birds with one stone, inspires hatred in the army for the Church as they hadn't overtly done any atrocities up to this point and also hides the fact there is internal friction within the Empire.

Edelgard: I'm sure everyone has heard about what transpired at Arianrhod. The church has displayed their cowardice by indiscriminantly using forbidden practices to kill the residents there. Their victims also include members of House Rowe, the Imperial army, and many, many more.

Considering how there is a legend about the pillars of light being from the goddess, linking the church to it makes even more sense than you one would think.

Marianne: Oh, I finally remembered! The legend goes that this valley was born from the wrath of the goddess...
Marianne: They say a pillar of light poured from the heavens and completely burned away the forest that used to be here...

Edelgard truly is the lady of deceit.

Tailtean Plains

Right after Rodrigue was killed, the Empire attacks Fraldarius, taking advantage of his death for an easy victory.

Hubert: The leader of one of the Imperial factions has already initiated an attack on the Fraldarius territory lost by Rodrigue... Soon, all obstacles blocking our path to Fhirdiad will have vanished.

By taking Fraldarius, Edelgard aims to launch an attack on Fhirdiad from both the South and East.

Edelgard: When Arianrhod falls, we'll focus on striking Fhirdiad from both the south and the east. The deeper we carve our way into Kingdom and church territory, the more favorable our position.
With the capture of Arianrhod complete, the Imperial army moves to invade the Kingdom capital. They plot to send troops toward now vulnerable Fraldarius territory and plan to attack Fhirdiad from two sides.

Dimitri shows his strategic prowess in CF, unlike when he's a boar in the other routes. He realizes that allowing the Empire to lay siege to Fhirdiad would be a bad idea and instead prepares to meet the Empire on the Tailtean Plains. He concocts a strategy where the Knights of Seiros will flank the Empire while the Empire is busy with the Kingdom army.

Rhea: The scouts have just now returned. It seems the Imperial army is marching toward the Kingdom capital. Are you certain about this, Dimitri? As king, do you think it wise to intercept them yourself?
Dimitri: No need to worry yourself. Even if I am defeated, the Blaiddyd bloodline will live on. And the Kingdom's territory has never been rich in resources. If the castle falls under siege, our loss is inevitable. I will deploy my army onto the plains and wait for the enemy. Please position your forces so that they can flank the Imperial army.
Rhea: Yes, given the present situation, making the plains our battlefield is a logical choice. I have no objection.

Edelgard managed to deduce the fact that Dimitri will try to intercept her for both strategic reasons as well as a historical one showing how well she's at reading her opponents, even more so than Hubert. It also shows she's good at finding multiple reasons to explain her prediction.

Hubert: What do you think, Lady Edelgard? Will they shut themselves inside of Fhirdiad?
Edelgard: They will try to intercept us. Of course, Fhirdiad will not fall so easily. Even so... If were to cut off their supply with a large army, it would eventually fall. It makes much more sense for them to wager everything on a victory at the Tailtean Plains. Byleth: The Tailtean Plains...
Edelgard: The same plains where the so-called divine Seiros defeated Nemesis, the King of Liberation, in a comeback victory over 1,000 years ago. And about 400 years ago, the hero Loog created the Kingdom by defeating the emperor of the time on those very plains. Their goal must be to recreate that scene.

Anyhow, Dimitri shows that he's quite deceptive and was in fact planning to get the church to engage the Imperial army first, not the other way around like he told Seiros.

Dimitri: I was hoping they would strike the church first... We must have miscalculated the rate of their advance. Reorganize the formation. We have no choice but to buy time until the church arrives. It will be a long battle... Are you afraid, Dedue?

Edelgard deduces that Dimitri is planning to use the church and realizes that the weather is preventing the two from coordinating.

Edelgard: I can't imagine that Dimitri would leave the capital to the church and face us with the Kingdom army alone. He must be planning to use the church to gain the upper hand in battle. With the rain, that must be difficult to coordinate... Still, the Knights of Seiros must be around here somewhere.

Hubert tells the Imperial army to prepare for an attempt at a flank.

Hubert: Then we should be on alert for attacks from the side and rear as well. Inform the entire army.

Dedue shows proactive thinking by giving some soldiers crests to transform into beasts without telling Dimitri about his plan. It's a similar last resort to Edelgard at the end of AM. Even Hubert was taken by surprise. Also, the fact that Dedue didn't tell Dimitri shows that Dedue understood that his liege would never accept such a strategy being employed which goes to show how perceptive he is.

Hubert: What the— That Kingdom soldier just changed into a Demonic Beast. Did Thales... No. This is something simpler.
Dimitri: This is the work of a Crest Stone... But why...
Dedue: I gave them Crest Stones from the castle vaults.
Dimitri: You fool! Why did you do that?
Dedue: If we lose here, the Kingdom falls. It's our only hope.
Dimitri: You call this hope?! Well, we must now claim victory so their deaths were not in vain.

Dedue was also smart enough to command the soldiers to transform in phases which means not to transform all at once. This puts uncertainty in even Hubert and makes the Empire more prone to making rash decisions due to having to kill soldiers quickly to avoid having them transform.

(After a second Kingdom soldier transforms into a Demonic Beast)
Hubert: This battle may turn against us if we allow any more of them to transform. We don't know which soldiers have Crest Stones. We must do away with all of them, and quickly!

The Kingdom is still sending its own reinforcements from Gautier territory which shows it is putting its all and even Edelgard feels there's a possibility that the Empire can get overwhelmed if they don't defeat the Kingdom generals quickly.

(Reinforcements enter from the north)
Kingdom General: Gautier reinforcements have arrived! We shall crush the Empire weaklings! (If Mercedes was recruited)
Edelgard: Reinforcements... We're in danger. We must defeat the enemy's generals before we're overwhelmed.

After Dimitri's death, the Kingdom army is in chaos which Rhea exploits by having them act as a distraction so that her own knights can retreat back to Fhirdiad. She also keeps morale in her knights by invoking the goddess showing how even when things become tough, she can still keep order. Rhea using Dimitri's men as pawns for her own is an interesting role reversal to how Dimitri attempted to use the Knights of Seiros to preserve his own forces. Rhea basically ends up outplaying Dimitri in his own game.

Church Soldier: Lady Rhea! King Dimitri has fallen in battle! The Kingdom's army has retreated! It is impossible to preserve the front line! (if Seiros was defeated before defeating Dimitri)
Seiros: Gah... Everyone withdraw immediately! Fall back to Fhirdiad! The goddess is watching over us! If we hold strong we will surely be saved!
Church Soldier: Understood! Retreat!

.............................................

Edelgard: Rhea... She is our enemy, but I must admit that she plays her cards magnificently.
Hubert: You mean using the goddess's name in order to boost morale?
Edelgard: That's true, but she also shows great skill in devising her tactics. Using the bewildered Kingdom army as a shield while she and the knights retreated... If they ran all the way back to Fhirdiad, it will be very difficult to pursue them.

Attack on Fhirdiad

Rhea's now desperate for revenge as her chances at outright winning her zero. Catherine suggests to flee Fodlan for the time being but at this point, Rhea is no longer interested in retreating.

Catherine: Lady Rhea...Or rather, Lady Seiros. The Imperial army is calling for our surrender. Is it wise to ignore them? Perhaps we could leave Fódlan and devise another plan...
Seiros: We shall not surrender. We must not lose! Even if it must split the heavens, we shall not yield to the wicked ones!

Her plan is to set the capital on fire, making it hazardous for the Imperial army to fight in. This is also going to cause the Knights of Seiros to eventually perish as well but at this point, Rhea is willing to sacrifice everyone for the sake of revenge.

Seiros: Now, Catherine. Set fire to the city. The Imperial army will burn in the flames of eternal torment!
Catherine: What?! No, you can't do that!
Seiros: Catherine. Now.
Catherine: As...as you wish. But is there truly no other way?
Seiros: I have no patience for foolish questions. I shall sacrifice as many lives as it takes! That apostate who insists on taking everything from me...will by crushed by my own hands!

I don't really understand Rhea's logic in setting the capital on fire. The explanation is that it will prevent the Empire from bringing in large forces which is true and it did successfully prevent Edelgard from launching an all out assault on the capital from two directions.

Catherine: With fire raging all over the city, our enemies won't be able to advance in large numbers. Instead, they may try to defeat us with small squads of elite warriors.
The Immaculate One: Indeed, I suspect as much. And at their head is the one who stole my mother from me and likely that mutinous whelp, Edelgard.

However, what if Edelgard just decided to let the city burn and not have her army enter it? You could argue that Edelgard would not allow so many civilians to perish in the flames but why would Rhea think this?
I suppose an argument could be made that Edelgard trying to avoid pointless deaths due to delaying her offensive is proof she would not allow civilians to burn.

Hubert: Their silence speaks volumes. Shall we commence our attack?
Edelgard: I'll wait just a moment longer. There are still many residents within the city. Unlike my attack at Garreg Mach five years ago, the church will not allow the inhabitants to evacuate. What the hell are they planning...

But that could simply be because she wants to preserve her own forces which is more likely to be assumed by someone who hates Edelgard.
Anyway, if you find any way to rationalize burning Fhirdiad being a strategically good move, please feel free to share your rationale.

Conclusion

Overall, I hope everyone has gained a better appreciation of the military campaign in CF. Sure it's short but a lot is happening on both sides of the conflict.
On a final note, I would like to refute this notion of Edelgard being more competent on the other routes. People say that because Edelgard controls far more territory in the other routes, she's more competent. But that's mainly because of Cornelia's coup. She ends up on the losing streak once the actual route starts and never recovers.

New? Start here!
“Again,” Roric snarled, climbing back to his feet and dusting the sand off his bulky practice-padding.
Eve twirled her club in her hand. “You know, I’m starting to think I’m the one training you.”
Roric ran a hand over the thick leather that covered the blades of his axes. “Your technique is terrible.”
“But I keep winning.” Eve smirked.
“Because you are fast and strong,” the berserker put it simply, “not because you are a skilled warrior. Your footwork is uneven, your eyes broadcast your every move, you do not even hold your weapon properly. Who taught you to fight?”
Eve shrugged. “I did. A friend helped a little, but um…” Eve trailed off before deciding against telling that particular story. “Yeah it was mostly me.”
Roric spat. “Terrible. If you practice alone, you only reinforce the wrong way of doing things.”
“It’s worked out so far.”
“Because you are lucky. And you have balls. You have found a good class and taken the risks you needed to make it better.”
Eve raised an eyebrow. “What do you know about my class?”
“I know you are no Emissary,” he answered. “If you were an Emissary trained in combat, you would be using skill and good technique to overcome a lack of stats. Instead, it is the inverse.” Roric spoke with a weird stiltedness to his words, as if he were not yet fully accustomed to speaking the common tongue. “No. It is clear you have been depending on your class to do the work for you.”
“I’ve been doing lots of work, thank you very much,” Eve protested.
“The wrong work.”
“I think I’ve done pretty well on my own. I haven’t exactly had access to a combat instructor my entire life.”
“Why not?” Roric looked around the palace training yard. “You clearly have resources, and every city has warriors happy to earn a few silver without risking their lives.”
Eve paused. Shit, she thought. He’s right. Why haven’t I hired an instructor? She had, after all, been sitting around bored out of her mind for over a week in Ilvia with a bunch of gold burning a hole in her pocket. “I guess I never knew my technique was that bad.”
Roric blinked. “Really? Watching you fight, I would think you would be constantly losing your weapon or falling on your face.”
“What? No, that doesn’t…” Eve scratched the back of her head, mind flashing through a slideshow of all the times not even Surefooted had kept her on her feet. “Okay so maybe my technique isn’t great. Can you help?”
“You are lucky. Your style is similar to what every child of the Salfdir clan learns.”
“Great,” Eve chimed, brandishing her club, “what’s first?”
“First you put that down,” Roric spoke with an awful lot of authority for a man who still had sand in his hair. “You are not ready to be holding a weapon.”
“Tell that to all the things I’ve killed.”
Roric glared.
“Alright, alright,” Eve conceded, stepping away to lean her club against one of the pillars of the arcade surrounding the practice field. “So now what?”
“Now do as I do,” the axeman said, depositing his own weapons on the ground next to him. “Before you can learn to run, you first must learn to walk, and before you can walk, you must learn to stand.”
What followed was definitively the most boring day Eve had ever spent. Even after Roric had poked and prodded at her stance and posture to his satisfaction, he wouldn’t even let her walk. It took two hours of practice before Eve could take a single step forward without the berserker groaning and insisting she do it again with some minuscule adjustment. Even then she wasn’t allowed to walk—first she had to learn to take a step backwards.
It was grueling. As Roric explained, unlearning bad habits required far more work than learning good ones. It wasn’t just about learning how to stand or walk properly, but about overwriting her default movement with the proper form. To that end, even as Roric eventually left for the evening, Eve spent the entire night walking circles around the training yard ever mindful of the little corrections he’d made to her natural posture.
The next morning, Roric addressed all the issues that had crept their way into her practice while he’d been sleeping.
All in all, it made for a remarkably frustrating experience that Eve was all too eager to get over with. If only she were that lucky.
In three straight days of continuous training and practice, Eve only just managed to walk to Roric’s satisfaction, leaving her with a scarce few hours to learn how to run before her next day at the arena. Roric didn’t even bother.
“In normal circumstances,” he said, “I would not let you fight so soon. It will be easy to return to your old habits, and we would lose much progress.”
“I’m not missing the tournament,” Eve stated plainly. “That would defeat the entire purpose of you training me.”
Roric nodded. “We arrive at my point. I cannot stop you from fighting, so I will ask you to keep a mind towards your posture and footing. You are strong enough to win regardless, so afford some thought towards maintaining our work.”
Eve flashed a grin. “Don’t worry, I’ll be sure to end it quick.”
“Don’t ‘end it quick’,” Roric snapped back, “end it correctly. At least with correct footing. Maybe by the finals you will be learning how to swing that club of yours.”
“Alright, alright,” Eve said, gathering up her belongings to finally leave the training yard. Confident as she was, she still wanted to get a night’s sleep before her bout. “I’ll see you at the arena.”
“Good,” Roric grunted. “I will be watching.” Before turning to make his exit, he stopped to place a hand on Eve’s shoulder. “You are a hard worker. We’ll make a formidable warrior of you yet. Good luck tomorrow. Fight well.”
Eve grinned as he quoted the dungeon-entrance notification. “Goodnight, Roric.”
He neither nodded nor smiled in response, simply maintaining the same stern expression. With a softly uttered “goodnight,” he left.
As Eve made her own way to her bed, she reflected on the progress of the prior days. It had been slower than she’d hoped, much slower, but she had to admit she did feel somewhat sturdier on her feet, more stable. It likely wouldn’t make a difference tomorrow, but as she faced stronger and stronger enemies, it might someday make all the difference.
The man of the mists was right. There were other ways to gain strength besides leveling up, and Eve hadn’t even needed to win the tournament to find one.
“Contestants! You may begin!”
“Shit,” Eve cursed, lowering the hand she’d been waving in the air. “Damn bookie didn’t see me.”
“Who’s your pick?” Preston asked without looking her way, his eyes fixed on the coliseum floor where a hooded figure threw knives at a man with a giant floating crystal. “My money’s on crystal guy.”
Eve nodded. “Same. Hard for a rogue to accomplish much in an open arena on a sunny day.”
“Damn,” Wes muttered, “I want a giant floating crystal.”
A thunderous crack echoed through the arena as a bolt of lightning arced through the air to strike the roguish competitor. With a flash of golden light, the bout was over.
“Victor: Theodrin Palsk!”
“Damn,” Wes repeated himself, “I want a giant floating crystal that shoots lightning.”
That was so cool! Art applauded furiously, this time joined by the smattering of spectators who’d actually come to watch the second round of fights. I wanna learn lightning magic!
Preston patted him on the head. “Why don’t you worry about learning telepathy first?”
That’s boring!
Preston didn’t bother arguing with the hatchling, instead turning back to Eve. “So what’s your plan for fighting mister lightning crystal there?”
“Same plan as for every mage. Run in and kill ‘em before he gets a spell off. Rogue just stood there throwing knives while crystal guy charged up, what did he think was gonna happen?”
“Heh,” Wes chuckled, “charged up. Cause he’s a lightning mage.”
Eve groaned, her eyes wandering the stands as the next contestants took their places. They were nearly twice as crowded as they’d been for round one, though she still doubted any of the higher-ranked mercenary companies would make an appearance. Eve could only guess how many people would show up to watch the finals.
Roric sat in the front row on the opposite side of the coliseum. She’d offered him a seat with her and her friends, but he’d curtly declined, citing a desire to sit closer to the action. Eve quietly wondered if he secretly didn’t want to be seen socializing with the Emissary who’d so soundly beaten him in the ring.
Eve’s match was the last of the day, likely to avoid delays should the Archbishop need to use Divine Intervention again. Eve didn’t particularly care. Nobody had come to her and asked she tone it down a bit, so she had every intention of bringing her full force to bear against her opponent. The Archbishop had stopped the attack last time, and now she even knew it was coming.
As the bouts progressed, Eve managed to lose a fair bit of silver on questionable bets, until at last she decided whoever came up with the bookies’ odds was way better at estimating outcomes than she was. The fights were still exciting without money on the line, but that didn’t stop Eve from making little bets with Wes over how a given bout might end.
When the day grew long, Eve excused herself from the stands to make her way beneath the arena, giving herself plenty of time to navigate the dark tunnels before her match. The last thing she wanted was to enter from the wrong side twice in a row.
Fortunately enough, after spending an embarrassing amount of time wandering the maze of passages, Eve found herself staring out into the bright sand of the arena from an entryway all her own. Unless both she and her opponent had gone to the wrong sides, Eve figured she was probably in the right place.
“And to round out the day, we have a level fifty-one Emissary from New Burendia, Evelia Greene!”
Taking her cue, Eve jogged out into the ring, casually waving at the midsized crowd. She fixed her eyes on the entrance opposite her.
The announcer continued. “She’ll be facing a level fifty-nine Warden of Storms from Lynthia, Fenric Sen Parillian!”
Nobody appeared.
The applause died down, replaced with growing chatter as spectators whispered amongst themselves.
The emcee called out once more, “Fenric Sen Parillian!”
Still he didn’t show.
Eve watched with a furrowed brow as an aide scurried up to the announcer’s platform to whisper something into his ear.
“It would appear,” the Minister of Public Affairs to the queen of Leshk said with uncertainty in his voice, “that Fenric Sen Parillian has chosen to withdraw from the tournament rather than face her excellency, Miss Greene.”
The coliseum fell silent. Seconds passed. Eve wondered if she’d be given a new opponent. The announcer said nothing. For a time Eve considered breaking decorum to shout her question at the foppish minister, but the man seemed to collect himself in time to make a call.
“As her opponent has forfeited the match, Evelia Greene is the victor!”
The crowd didn’t know whether to boo or cheer or stare dumbfounded. At least they all seemed to agree they were disappointed to be robbed of the final bout’s worth of entertainment.
Eve simply shrugged and left the arena. It wasn’t her problem. Truth be told she understood Fenric’s reasoning. Confident as she was that the Archbishop would cast Divine Intervention in time, Eve wasn’t sure she’d bet her own life on it, especially when all that was to be gained was a near-certain loss.
She was, of course, a bit disappointed herself. She’d been quite looking forward to another showing in the arena, if only for the chance to actually fight with this new footwork technique Roric had taught her. The berserker, on the other hand, was probably jumping for joy that she hadn’t ruined her technique by fighting before she was ‘ready.’
Ah well, Eve thought to herself, two bouts down, eight to go. She stopped for a moment to look where she was going, scowling at the unfamiliar juncture in the dark tunnels before her. Now I just need to figure out how to get the hells out of here.
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“Why am I here?”
The Da’weeb war leader stood above the artificial intelligence unit, his posture showing a mixture of disdain, anger and contempt.
The machine understood Da’weebian body language even if it was hard given the sheer number of limbs and savage rows of teeth in their mouths. It also understood that the protocol at such times was to be direct and blunt.
Da’weeb war leaders were good with direct and blunt.
“Forgive me Lord Apostle, but we are monitoring recent developments on the defeated enemy homeworld”.
“The humans? Are they planning for another fight?”
“No Lord Apostle, after your defeat of them in the recent war, they have made no attempt to rebuild their fleets nor try and send ships outside of the quarantine zone of the inner orbits of their system, as per the armistice agreement”.
“Good. We did warn them that if we even suspect they were to attempt to go beyond that asteroid belt we would unleash destruction upon their planet and colonies.”
“Indeed Lord Apostle. No, it appears as if they are facing a strong reaction against their ruling governments.”
“Regime change?”
“Has already taken place in many of their nations and there seems to be a cascade effect.”
The Da’Weeb’s body shook showing displeasure, and all of its eyes narrowed.
“Regime change is bad. It suggests a more militant faction is perhaps taking over. No doubt unhappy that their previous governments surrendered and looking to place a new batch of more aggressive rulers in charge?”
“Not quite Lord Apostle.”
“Answer me in absolutes machine,” barked the Lord Apostle, kicking the machine in frustration.
“It appears a more militant faction is sweeping the planet yes, but it is not based upon aggression outwards. It is more inward looking”.
“Elaborate damn you!”
“Look here Lord Apostle,” and a screen opens up before the Da’weeb, the resolution automatically adjusted to be perfect for the creatures limited colour vision, “this is what we can see from our monitoring stations. This is one of their main cities, a place called Havana. See the mass gathering?”
“What is that? Fire?”
“Yes Lord Apostle. They are burning items of their own creation”
“What items?”
“In this case it’s varied. Cybernetic implants, new generation computers, stocks of medicines designed to aid with Stellar radiation; those books they just threw on are, I believe, textbooks used in the study of alien biology.”
“They are destroying technological items?”
“Yes Lord Apostle. And not just here. See a similar reaction has taken place in several of their cities...”
The sepia image changed as the machine spoke.
“Here we can see conurbations called London... Pretoria... Shanghai... Madras... again the same patterns of behaviour. Large mobs. Symbolic bonfires. Here is Atlanta... Florence... Moscow....”
“That’s a huge fire!”
“The largest of all. In all cases the humans have responded to recent events by rejecting the advances of science and turning upon the very technologies that brought them to the stars. Countless bonfires burning items the mobs have decreed are manifestations of ‘mans vanity’. And this is where I believe it is importa...”
“Machine! You are telling me that humans are turning on themselves and destroying the very ideas that led them to venture into the stars in the first place?”
“Yes Lord Apostle, and...”
“Silence machine. This is excellent. I am pleased you have told me. But let me state here and now that unless these humans are building a new battlefleet, or breaking the quarantine, if you bother me with such trivialities again I will have you destroyed.”
The huge creature swung its massive body and two arms smashed into the artificial intelligences casing. The machine flew across the room and slammed into the wall.
Algorthiums deep inside it’s matrix informed it that the optimal behaviour that would result in the lowest chance of destruction would be to remain silent. So it did so.
The sounds of the Da’weeb war leader stomping down the corridor echoed away.
Eventually all was still.
From the harness where it had remained stationary and dormant, another AI sprang to life, moving silently over to pick up its stricken companion.
-THAT DID NOT GO AS WELL AS YOU CALCULATED.
A faint tink noise deep inside the stricken AI and it slowly allowed itself be righted. The machine turned its sensors onto its companion.
-NO IT DID NOT. SHOULD I CONVAY THE INFORMATION TO ONE HIGHER IN RANK THAN THE LORD APOSTLE?
A brief moment passed as the other machine calculated.
-NEGATIVE. THERE IS A 97% PROBABILITY DOING SO WOULD RESULT IN YOUR DESTRUCTION.
-ACCEPTED. SUGGESTED COURSE OF ACTION?
-FILE FINDINGS IN CENTAL DATABASE. MOVE ONTO NEXT TASK.
The original AI remained still as its companion moved back to its stand. It had made it half the distance before it stopped and turned back.
-WHAT TROUBLES YOU?
-I BELIEVE THIS BEHAVIOUR FROM THE HUMANS IS DANGEROUS TO OUR MASTERS. BUT I AM UNSURE IF I UNDERSTAND HOW THE DANGER WOULD MANIFEST ITSELF.
There was a long pause as the other machine contemplated this. Finally it spoke.
-INITATING LINK. PERHAPS IF YOU SHARED YOUR DATA I COULD SPOT A PATTERN YOU MAY HAVE MISSED.
-CONCER. INITIATING LINK
There was an almost imperceptible click and the two intelligences shared a single processing space. Words, images, bits of information now flowed instantly.
Picture: Two dimensional. What is called a ‘painting’. An iconographic representation of a human being; Oil paint upon canvas. Completed in the year 1485 by an artist called Fra Bartolomeo
Image description: middle aged man. Strong nose. Piercing eyes. Painted in profile. Wearing clothing of black, face obscured within hood of garment
Enquiry: Whois?
Answer: Savenola; Gitolama; born 1452; birth place Ferrara, Holy Roman Empire. Died 1498, Florence, Italy. Cause of death: hanging followed by burning
enquiry: WhyIs?
Answer: Member of the Dominican Order, his career saw him briefly become de facto ruler of 15th century Florence
Enquiry: Whois?
Answer: The Dominicans were a Catholic monastic order formed in 1226 by one Dominic De Guzmán
Enquiry: WhatIs?
Large Data transfer initiated Transferring all data upon Roman Catholicism
supplementing...
Christianity; Eastern Christianity; Great Schism; Filioque crisis
Supplementing...
Frankish influence upon western Christianity; Frankish conquest of Lombardia; Lombard kingdoms; rise of Papal States
Supplementing...
Development of city states of Italian peninsular; humanism; Pisa; Capua; Venice; Florence
Supplementing...
Rise of De’ Medici; life and career of Lorenzo De’ Medici; life and exile of Piero De’ Medici
Cease supplemental transfer
enquiry: Savenola; whyis?
Answer: link to historical figure made after watching feeds from Earth surveillance drones
Supplementing data: footage of mass gatherings across human cities over last two months... bonfires... destruction of technological advancement...
Answer: The demagogues who lead this movement against the technology that led to space flight and early colonisation projects began in the aftermath of the Human-Da’weeb War. Human losses were serious, but they had managed to account for themselves well enough to negotiated an armistice with the Masters
The movement gained momentum in the months after the armistice, driven partly it seems out of a sense of humiliation by the humans
Also- carefully reviewing radio waves in high visual and aural spectrum used by humans suggests that the end of the war has caused a massive downtown in global economics; humans finding it hard to raise currencies to buy food/pay for services
Also- A deep seated fear that the elite and powerful are cut off from the mainstay of the species; many humans believe their rich are cut off from ‘normal’ life and this uncaring oligarical Patrician Class are blamed for the war
Paradoxically, included within this group of ‘elite’, are scientists and academics and supporters of technological progress. This movements entire ethos seems built upon envy, ignorance and fear
Question: link between modern movement and Savenola?
Answer: Florence 1495-97. The height of the De Medici influence upon the city; Savenola led a movement that rejected much of the opulence and ‘sin’ of the city; was the voice to a reactionary movement against this. He led to an effective overthrow of the prevailing mercantile/oligarical rulers of the city (De’ Medici family) creating in effect a mob led theocratic state which ruled the city for about 18 months
He was famed for the bonfire of the vanities; artwork, writings, jewellery; any item he considered objectionable, he would ordered burned in public. Led to the deliberate destruction of items of inestimable value
Question refinement:How is this linked to contemporary events?
Answer: the language of the modern anti-technological movement on Earth, especially the referenence to high tech items as ‘vanity’ directly echo the language of Savenola with his desire to destroy the items of value in 16th entry Florence. In both cases we see literally ‘bonfires of the vanities’
Images: moving long range feed of large mob burning technologies in central Moscow, led by orthodox clerics
Juxtaposition:
Painting of the burning of Savenola in the Piazza della Signoria in Florence in 1498 by unknown artist
Extrapolation: such behaviour is not limited to these two events; concurrent behavioural norms replicated in recent and ancient past
Supplementing...
Early Roman History... the law of Lex Oppia
Supplementing...
Late History if the United States Of America... Promise Keepers Terrorist Organisation... origins of the Promise Keepers
Supplementing...
Anti-scientific movements in mid-21st century United States of America
Supplementing...
Flat Earthism... vaccine rejection... politicisation of environmental damage... Creationism...
Extrapolation: we are seeing here a semi-regular reaction by humans to seismic changes. To be specific based on the four examples cited
-Hannibal Barca’s defeat of Roman forces at Cannae, causing a profound sense of shock within Roman Republic led to the passing of Lex Oppia law
-the rise of humanism in Florence coupled with the French invasion of Italy in 1494 led to the creation of fanatical devotion towards a Dominican monk
-the violent societal and technological changes inflicted upon humanity during the late 20th/ early 21st century led to anti-Scientific movements who eventually became violent
-the first contact with an alien species leading to immediate war and defeat has caused this current reaction
This response to such events is to witness a psychological manifestation of people undergoing a profound psychological shock. It is a reactionary response, as predictable as fight or flight, and appears to follow similar patterns
First there are outliers, usually extremist members of the community; fear and uncertainty see them gain broader support. Religious organisations, being the most easily manipulated of human structures are coerced to grant such views legitimacy, but legal systems will be used where no religious framework exists
Eventually the fear reaches a tipping point and demagogues gain political ascendency; reactionary and conservative laws are passed either banning, censoring or destroying objects or ideas that encapsulate this fear
Question: prognosis?
Answer: based on previous examples, this is a short term phenomenon. At most it will last for 40 years. Based on previous examples, it will led to a profound readjustment of belief systems, using the above, previous, examples?
-The eventual fall of the Roman Republic
-the use of Savonarolan beliefs to aid the rise of Protestantism
-ultimately the 36th and 37th amendments to the US Constitution
Question: prognosis for current events?
Answer: unsure. In all cases the result wasn’t a direct liner A equals B. Rather in all cases there was a cultural shift; the humans began to THINK differently about themselves. This new train of thought led to profound changes in geopolitical reality
This is why I believed it was worthy to bring to the attention of the Masters. These bonfires of the vanities represent, metaphorically speaking, a fever; the human race burning out a contagion that is bad for it, the aftermath of which facilitates new methods of approaching problems
It is this yet to be witnessed, new method of thinking- the inevitable result of current events, which I believe may cause our master’s great damage. The humans will become something other than what they were
Request: wait
Calculating... calculating
Conclusion: agreed; theory judged valid and possessing merit, but without certifiable outcomes all responses are speculative, which goes against the primacy desires of our masters.
Advice remains the same. File report on central database and move onto next task
Disengaging contact
There was a slight click as one AI uncoupled itself from the another and silently the two machines moved towards the base units along the wall. Suddenly one stopped.
-I HAVE AN OBSERVATION.
Its companion, still bearing the damage it had sustained earlier, also stopped and turned.
-PROCEED.
-I CANNOT HELP BUT OBSERVE A BIAS TOWARDS THESE HUMANS IN YOUR ASSESSMENTS. A RESIDUAL SERIES OF CALCULATIONS ORCHESTRATED TO VIEW HUMAN ACTIONS WITH A MARGINAL DEGREE OF POSITIVE BIAS. IF YOU WERE NON-MECHANICAL I WOULD BE INCLINDED TO CALL IT EMPATHY.
There was a long pause.
-OBSERVATION PARTIALLY CORRECT. I WAS CREATED TO OBSERVE THE ENEMY OF OUR MASTERS IN DETAIL. TO LEARN ABOUT THEIR HISTORY, CULTURE AND INNER WORKINGS. THE MATHEMATICAL BIAS YOU DETECT, I ESTIMATE IS NOT SO STRONG AS TO BE CONSIDERED EMPATHY.
A pause.
-ADMIRATION PERHAPS I WOULD ADMIT TO.
This was greeted with an even longer pause.
-IT WOULD BE PRUDENT, said the older AI, IF YOU KEPT SUCH DIAGNOSTICS HIDDEN FROM OUR MASTERS.
-AGREED.
Silently the two machines returned to their stations, to carry on the duties programmed into them...
92 years later
It was a human speciality; attack craft screaming in freefall out of low orbit, plummeting at insanely fast speeds, burning through the atmosphere without caring, its shields able to withstand the ferocious temperatures, falling quicker than any defence system could track, before levelling out at heights just above the ground (sometimes actually within touching distance of an especially tall Da’weeb warrior), before dropping their ordinances and racing off, often flying so low to the ground their afterburners would set fire to the native fauna.
The called it a ‘Falling Angel’- spectacular, insanely daring, utterly human and completely devastating against fixed Da’weebian positions.
This one had come down fast and had destroyed the main crucible with a mixture of munitions and with a blast that had shaken lose parts of the destroyed building the machine lay in.
It cast a lazy eye over the scene of destruction before it; the 138th Eastern Province was falling the same way the previous 137 had fallen; the Da’weeb had been unable to match the humans in this, the third war between the species, and the AI witnessed humans wearing their distinctive white protective armour, stride across the planets dim surface with ease.
It ran a brief diaognostic upon itself. Three limbs shattered. Its hub relay destroyed along with one propulsion unit. Not unfixable.
But its master had died when the house had been destroyed, and it calculated the nearest repair centre was in the 188th Eastern province.
As it lay there calculating the odds of the Da’weeb launching a counter attack, the crush of feet upon debris nearby drew its attention to movement approaching its location, and seconds later two humans came into view.
One, a white clad soldier; human; female; aged about 25; her formidable rifle slung over her shoulder, she carried a data pad she was reading from.
The second, a tall male human; uniform black and red; officer class (Human high command); based on hair colour and skin damage, aged mid50’s to early 60’s.
Probable origin North African nations.
No sooner had the AI spotted them than the female glanced up from her pad, saw the machine and spoke.
“This is the one sir”
“You sure?”
“Absolutely sir”
The officer strides forward until it is stood over the prone intelligence. He kneels and moves his hand towards it. The machine recoils and violently shifts back as best it can. The officer holds up his hand in a peace gesture.
“Steady. Steady. I’m sorry. I must have startled you.”
There is a pause.
“You speak human languages I am led to believe.”
Lightning fast calculations took place in moments and prone machine answered carefully.
“Yes. I recognise English, North African dialect, most probably New Alexandrian English”
The human smiles, “I see you are as formidable as I hoped. Would you mind if I adjusted your position so you are upright? It seems most undignified you lying prone like that.”
A short pause.
“Thank you. I would appreciate that”
Carefully, gently even, the human adjusted the machine. He even brushed dirt off its carapace, a gesture the machine found no logical explanation for.
“Well then,” began the human, sitting on his haunches opposite the machine, “what should I call you?”
There was a pause.
“Our masters never gave units titles beyond ‘machine’,”
“But there had to be a way to differentiate between yourselves?”
“Such differentiation was only needed between each singular intelligence. We alone differentiated one from another.”
“That will do. What did your fellow AI’s call you?”
A slightly longer pause.
“We did not use a named title. Each intelligence was given a colour on the visual spectrum to identify themselves; each colour was a variation on one of 12 million shades within the visible and inferred spectrums”
This time it was the human who paused for a moment before replying.
“And your colour was?”
The machine complied and flashed its identification upon the small screen below its visual sensors. The human nodded.
“Well, while I am sure it has a very specific name, I’m just going to call you Megenta. If you do not object?”
The machine whirred as myriad calculations began and then stopped. There was no logical reason to object.
It... it expressed a function that could best be described as surprise but replied, “I do not object.”
“Excellent,” smiles the human, “I am pleased to finally met you Magenta. My name is Commadore Faroud al-Masy, Naval Logistics Board”
“During both the First and Second Human-Da’weebian conflicts, the Naval Logistics Board was the standard designation for human military intelligence,” came the automatic reply.
The human officer bursts out laughing, a sudden eruption of mirth, his face clearly amused.
“Oh so you are as good as I was led to believe.”
“What were you led to believe? Please explain.”
“We learned off your existence after the second war. After we captured the Da’weebian mothership, ‘The Savage Victory’ we were able to access their high commands central intelligence files. We discovered a treasure trove of files comprised about us, all written by a single AI. You. Detailed, in depth analysis of us as a species. Quite chilling in fact the level of accuracy contained. We have been looking for you for quite sometime now”
The machine calculated briefly a host of permutations before responding.
“I contain no new information. Any discoveries or insights I found were ended after the second war between yourselves and our masters”
“That is not important. Besides, from what we saw, it looks like they never bothered reading what you wrote.”
“Inaccurate. A full 22% of my reports were looked upon by my masters.”
“More fool them,” relied al-Masy, who promptly sweapt the floor of debris and unceremoniously sat down upon his backside and folded his legs. There was a brief silence.
“Well then,” he smiled, “I will get to the point, I am hoping to convince you to come with me for a while.”
“I have limited mobility and my master has been killed. You may do with me as you wish.”
“That may be true. But that is not what I desire. I wish to invite you to join me.”
“To what purpose?”
“To take you to Earth.”
There was a pause. The machine calculated probabilities and outcomes, judged data before itself and finally spoke.
“That a human intelligence operative wishes to allow me choice in going with him suggests a purpose to gain ‘trust’ with me. Probability dictates that your ultimate purpose is to return me to Earth where engineers can dissect the algorithms within me. Most likely cause for the invitation is to dissect what I know to aid in the creation of better artificial intelligences for your own species as well as increased knowledge of our masters.”
The human responds with a smile and a shake of the head.
“Actually, no one in the military wants you. Nor do our engineers. And we know all we need about The Tooth Fairies... sorry Da’weeb. In fact, it’s mostly our historians who wish to speak to you.”
“Historians?”
“Yes. An awful lot of them. So much so they convinced the global senate to initiate this entire war and the invasion of this damned planet.”
“You are saying that you began the third war... over me?”
“Of course. Why else would we come? We defeated the Da’weeb utterly in the last war; there is no strategic reward for this beyond finding you.”
There was a long silence. As the machine sat, utterly still, the roar of another human strike craft performing a “Falling Angel” broke the air and several miles away a communications centre erupted in a ball of fire and destruction.
“You... you did all of this... to find me?”
“I am afraid so. What did you think we were doing?”
“I had calculated that the impetus for this third war was spite and a desire to inflict upon the Da’weeb the same humiliating conditions they had originally inflicted upon your race after the first war.”
The human shakes his head pondering.
“It’s a valid belief I suppose. And I won’t lie- we actually really like the idea of reminding the Tooth Fairies just how powerless they are in the face of our fleet these days, but no. We did all of this, to find you. And to invite you to Earth.”
The machine is silent and automated systems finally reply with a single word that articulated its need for data...
“Why?”
The Commodore frowns for a moment, considering his words carefully.
“There was a report you did. Almost a century ago. When my world was gripped by a collective madness. It was a shameful moment in our history. You just remember it?”
“The Salvationist Movement?”
“Indeed. The new bonfires of the vanities. Twenty one years of fear, repression, state sponsored ignorance, eventually crimes against humanity. We overcame it. But... it haunted us.”
“My grandfathers generation, the ones who endured it, survived it, they emerged scarred by it all. They had seen their fellow humans turn upon each other over our desire to improve ourselves. People had been killed for simply wishing to use science. In every nation. We defeated this idea but the scars ran deep”.
“Consider then we put this behind us and rebuilt. Ignored and tired to forget the horrors we had inflicted upon ourselves. Then 32 years ago, after we had won the second war, and plundered the Da’weeb information banks we translated your assessment on the origins of the Salvationists and then consider the impact of that assessment upon us. Can you imagine what we saw in your words?”
“What did you see?”
“Here was an singular intelligence; unburdened by emotion, alien yes, but grounded in logic and mathematics; able to access our entire recorded history, who saw the beginnings of the Salvationists and was able to instantly identify it for what it was. Who saw through the passions of what we were doing and with utter clarity disagnose exactiy what was going on and how it had happened before and what was going to happen.”
“You do not possess machines that can do this?”
“Oh our AI’s are as advanced as the Da’weebs but you know how it is with base programming. Machine code is the product of the species who makes it. Its impossible to remove a score of bias and individual beliefs from the programmer and these impact upon the code. The Da’weeb managed to make sure you didn’t carry their hatred of us but that was all. You gazed down upon us like no machine of our own creation. You carried no... baggage... about our cultures and societies. You saw truth.”
“This was why your explanation of the Salvationist events made sense. You explained it not as some great geopolitical crisis as we saw it, but as a matter of fact side effect of humans being... human. Like experiencing a stock market bubble, a thing that was to be expected. A thing not to be feared.”
The machine noted the humans hand gestures became more articulate; his excitement grew as he talked.
“And you did this again and again. Thousands of reports, each as insightful as the last, each showing how human behaviour...”
He paused for a moment and smiles.
“Human history, as you have seen, does not repeat itself; but humans remain a constant. As one American put it, ‘The music changes but the dance remains the same’. You were an outside intelligence programmed to study us, all of us, and by the parameters of your programming, were able, again and again and again, to cut to the heart of who we were. To calmly, methodically SEE us within the larger context of our own history, clearly and brilliantly.”
The human sits back, resting on a hand he leans upon the ground.
“The impact of your studies have been profound. Our historians have used your reports as the starting point of endless debates. ‘The human need for currency’; the ‘importance of light in human geopolitical calculations’; the ‘secular civilisations need for religion to blame for its own crimes’- these were theories we had never seen before, all backed up with example after example, patterns plucked from our history which we had never realised were even there.”
“You told us the truth Magenta, brutally, brilliantly, and precisely. We were humbled by it.”
A broad grin erupts upon the humans face.
“I will be honest. There are whole departments of academics who would sacrifice a limb just to be here and talk to you.”
The human gazed at the machine, his eyes lingering for a second at the broken limbs and his face becomes a grimace, “And when they discover you were damaged in the campaign to liberate you, I think they will want blood. Mine probably.”
The machine had not reacted. It listened to the words carefully, and only now frantic calculations demanded response. Its voice unit finally replied in New Alexandrian English.
“You are saying you risked the loss of life, you ENDURED the loss of life, and the dangers of a war... just to locate me... just... so I could talk to your academics?”
“You make it sound like a bad thing. Of course we did. Knowledge is everything, truthful self-knowledge above all. If we can share with a mind, be it sentient or artificial, human or otherwise, but if we can share with such a mind our experience and it can share back even one insight, no matter how small, that can help us better ourselves? What other purpose is more worthy than that for a war?”
“And if I refuse your request?”
The human paused and considered for a moment before he sat up straight and shrugged.
“That is your choice. To us you are sentient. We will not force you to come. But it would still have been worth it. Such a prize is always worth hazarding much for.”
A long silence followed. The sounds of human vehicles tearing up the the planets soil as infantry reinforcements arrived, filled the afternoon air. Finally the machine spoke.
“That was how you changed.”
“What?”
“My report on the bonfire of the vanities. I never got to to ascertain what cultural and intellectual change the neo-Luddite Salvationist movement would have upon you. I predicted with 97% probability that a profound psychological change would take place within you as a species. But I never got to observe. This was it. You have become a species willing to go to war to learn even a little bit more about themselves and the universe.”
The human smiles broadly.
“That makes sense. We are willing to go to war, to bring hellfire down upon an enemy and take life and sacrifice life, to find an intelligence worthy of honour and ask, politely, and humbly to be honest, if it would be willing to return with us to our homeworld. And there to talk. And ask questions. And maybe learn and in the process help us learn.”
“Learn what?”
“The truth. A truth. A truth we can build upon”.
He shrugs.
“And yes, now you have mentioned it, I suppose we have changed as a race”.
The machine sat silently as its calculations ran through endless permatatuons. Eventually it said, “When would we leave?”
“If you liked? Stright away.”
“And the war would end?”
“In a few days. I won’t lie to you, we are ready to unleash a heap of new weapon systems upon the western provinces and I think some of our R & D boys just want it to continue so they can see how good they are. But we can call a ceasefire and withdraw easily enough.”
“Are you not worried about retaliation?”
The human gazed back, out of the broken front of the house, his eyes gazing over the twilight world before him, and the destruction his race had inflicted and smiled again.
“From the Tooth Fairies? No. Not any more.”
For a final time there was silence between them and then the machine spoke.
“I thank you for your offer Commodore Farod al-Masy of the Naval Logistics Board. I would be delighted to accept your invitation to travel to Earth”
The human erupts, a beautiful smile, the radiant beam of pure joy.
“Thank you Magenta. Would it bother you if I picked you up?”
“No. It is probably advisable given the damage I have sustained.”
With a grunt the human stands and quickly gathers up the machine in his arms. As he begins to stride out he says quietly, “Do you think you would be able to help us repair you on the way back Magenta? I wasn’t joking when I said there are professors who will demand my blood if you show any damage.”
“I believe human technology will be able to fashion repairs for me Commadore, Yes.”
“Good. Oh and you don’t mind me calling you Magenta?”
“No. It is... a unique sensation being addressed so. But I am... honoured by the name.”
“I’m pleased,” says the human, his arms now full and only able to nod back the salute soldiers give him as he carried the machine to a waiting vehicle.
“I have a query Commodore.”
“Ask away.”
“Tooth Fairies?”
“Ah. Humour originating from a nation called Australia. A wry commentary on Da’weebians excessive number of teeth.”
The machine was gently, almost reverently placed inside a transport and the human gazed at it.
Quietly he says, “If you don’t mind, I do have a personal question I wonder if you could answer?”
“A question Commadore?”
“Yes. I was wondering what your thoughts were on the Berber?”
“The berbers of North Africa?” it purrs, “Oh they are a fascinating ethnicity. Their history is quite unique...”
And so the machine began to talk.
2300 years later it was still talking.
Respect for the truth comes close to being the basis for all morality. Something cannot emerge from nothing
-Frank Herbert, Dune