Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome! Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch. And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night. Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy. Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level. There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen. This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat. Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defensehere) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and… Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers. This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about. In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him. I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs. As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL. For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play. And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl. Why We Will Win This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing. Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay. Prediction:Bills 31 – Chiefs 28 Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing. Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack. Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other. The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look. This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games. This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night. If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night. The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air. Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities. At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night. For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993. The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league. The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense. Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts. Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones. The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss. EDGE: Bills 👏 Why We Will Lose The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2. On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory. Why We Will Win The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL. On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years. Prediction:Bills 27 – Ravens 24 This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
I recently read Cal Newport’s book Deep Work. To summarize his work in two sentences is to do it a disservice, but I think the gist is this: Deep work, or “the ability to focus without distraction on a cognitively demanding task” is a profoundly important skill, which enables much of today’s most valuable work. Yet, the constant blur of email, social media, and the internet inhibits our ability to go deep—indeed, many have lost the skill entirely. Suffice it to say, I find this an apt description of who I am as a dynasty fantasy football player (not to mention that dynasty may be one such distraction from more important work in my life). I have aggregated Twitter lists of (fantasy) football accounts which I endlessly scroll through. I peruse this subreddit, the DLF forums, and dynasty discords, constantly skimming others’ insights. Now, to be fair, I think this has made me pretty successful at dynasty. I’m ahead of the curve on many sleepers. I rostered James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Robert Tonyan, and Logan Thomas on two or more of my five dynasty teams this past year, and added all for free (or close to it). Outside of drafting N’Keal Harry in two leagues in 2019, I’ve drafted fairly well. That being said, doing so takes a lot of time, is unfulfilling, and adds little value. Moreover, although finding a reason to be involved in football year-round is great, I find little value in staying engaged (at least in the shallow, surface-level way) from between when the regular season ends until about a week before the NFL draft. So, I guess this is my way of announcing (to nobody in particular, at least nobody who should care), that I plan to take a break from dynasty reddit/TwitteSleeper, and that I’d encourage you all to do the same. That being said, to atone for the fact that I’ve made you read a wall of text, written with a snobbish, somewhat self-important tone despite its relative unimportance, I’d like to consolidate some of the best quantitative and qualitative insights I have on fantasy football to keep you all from wasting as much shallow time on fantasy football as I have. I also do this to hopefully spark some idea for a “deep” dynasty project (akin to Jordan McNamara’s Analytics of Dynasty or Peter Howard’s database) and possibly find collaborators. I’m thinking that perhaps a public database of ‘21 prospects which consolidates tweets/articles written about those prospects by notable analysts (film, analytics, or otherwise) could be helpful. Here are helpful statistics for...
Though these are the “stickiest” statistics, they still only have a R^2 of around 40% (with some variance by position). Peter Howard talks about them all here (around minute 85).
This sounds trite, but it’s not. Good RBs are generally good as rookies (some possible indicators of “being good” are yards per team attempt (RBs with two top-12 season average around 1.4 YPTA in their rookie year, minute 89), rushing yards over expectation, or praise from film analysts like JMoyer and Matt Waldman). Moreover, most long-term stud TEs generally breakout in their first or second year.
I trust NFL evaluators to be much better than me on this position, in particular, since their jobs depend on it.
Rushing Upside
OL (if unequivocally on of the worst in the league, consider fading until year 2. Also for RBs, a factor.)
[Cheating a bit… I think rookie QBs are best to buy based on starts three to five of their career. Often teams have NFL tape on them by then (so QBs like Hurts and Daniel Jones show notable weaknesses), but you can still get QBs like Herbert and Mahomes for a value.]
Identifying In-Season/Off-Season Buys
Buy (young) players ranked higher in redraft (specifically Bob Henry’s R.O.S. rankings, which Adam Harstad and I both believe to be some of the best in the business) than in dynasty
This year that could have netted you Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Terry McLaurin, and Calvin Ridley at the beginning of the year, and Tee Higgins and Myles Gaskin during the middle of the season. (Who knows if all those will turn out to be good buys, but most of them seem to have seen their value rise significantly in dynasty after when they were identified as good buys.)
TEs with a high snap share and HOG rate.
WRs with a great reception perception.
Of course, all of this is just an aid. None of these indicators are deterministic or have flawless records. But, the nice thing is, they can help you account for earlier misses. For instance, if you—like most of breakout age twitter—faded Terry McLaurin as a rookie, when he had an incredible PFF grade midseason and at the end of the rookie year, plus > 2.0 yards per route run, plus was valued higher in redraft than dynasty, those all should’ve told you to buy Terry McLaurin aggressively. Here are a few narratives I FADE and BUY: FADE coach-centric narratives * * Unless with the current personnel (meaning offensive starters and OC), that coach as clearly demonstrated and articulated their preference (for instance, Carrol and Zimmer’s desire to establish the run), I find you often lose more value than you gain by making predictions and projections based on qualitative coaching tendencies. BUY talent
This may seem like a frustratingly opaque statement (and only barely actionable), but earlier in this post, I’ve attempted to give a bunch of proxies for talent
(That being said) FADE unproductive rookies
Again this isn’t a hard or fast rule. If you believe in the talent enough (e.g. Reagor and Mims) or are waiting for a toolsy/young prospect to develop (e.g. Chark, RoJo), that’s understandable. But the love for underperforming rookies going into their sophomore year is (surprisingly) almost as strong as rookie fever.
BUY that the startup is the easiest place to accrue value (and trade for future rookie picks). FADE “can’t stay on the field” narratives, namely someone being “injury prone” or having “character concerns.” * Here’s why (part 1) (part 2). * Like always, there are a few exceptions. Soft-tissue injuries (particularly an achilles injury) can be significant. Talk of a player being deep in the drug-prevention program (particularly if they’re a highly-valued player) and an indefinite suspension is a real threat is worth paying attention to. BUY far-out rookie picks.
There’s a reason they’re devalued (you won’t realize that value for a few years, but they’re the best / safest stores of value available, and in my opinion, cheaper than they should be.
BUY “base rates” narratives.
They’re good and not deployed / understood by people enough.
FADE narratives which use one metric / threshold to encourage not drafting a player (rookies, in particular). BUY narratives which use multiple metrics / thresholds to characterize a rookie class as a whole. (Basically, what I’m saying is that context is important.) FADE college awards as being anything more than an indicator that someone is a good college player. (Also FADE conference-driven takes.) FADE consensus “buy lows / buy highs”
Sure Laviska Shenault may be valued lower than he should in startups, but if everyone (likely including, due to the endowment effect, teams with Laviska Shenault) anticipate his value surging with Trevor Lawrence, he’s probably not an effective buy low. So, add to your buy low posts and comments why consensus (the market) is missing something important in their valuation of a player.
For instance, I think Gus Edwards is a buy low because a) I think he’s an actually good football player, and his (lack of) draft pedigree is clouding that, and b) I think that he could compete for a lead back role (or at least be a valuable part of a committee) wherever he signs in free agency. (And as Adam Harstad reminds us…)
The same is true for Derrick Henry as a “sell high.” I don’t dispute the process—he’s an older back coming off insane volume. But everyone else already knows that too.
So, on a related note… BUY “buy high / sell high" narratives
For instance (though keep in mind this goes against my earlier “buy good rookie RBs advice”), I think D’Andre Swift is a good sell-high. Though he’s within range of the average (1.4), his yards per team attempt is 1.14, lowest among the big seven rookie RBs. I don’t trust the Lions organization (particularly after the HC hire of Dan Campbell) to get the most out of talented players, and I think many are clinging to a pre-draft evaluation in ranking Swift significantly higher than Cam Akers and Antonio Gibson, who I think both have similar (if not better) long-term prospects. If I can trade Swift for Akers/Gibson + a late first or a WR like Laviska Shenault, I absolutely would.
Similarly, I think Tee Higgins is valued too low and a worthwhile “buy high.” His production his rookie season put him in rarified air (despite poor quarterback play and a bad offense the second half of the year), which I think has gone partly overlooked because of the holistic greatness of the 2020 rookie class. If I sell Pittman (who I value highly), Ruggs, and Lockett for Higgins, Corey Davis, and Parris Campbell, I’m OK with that because I think Higgins has, by far, the best long-term upside.
BUY PPR is the best scoring system. Whew! That was a long post. Hopefully some of it was helpful. I’ll end by encouraging some great Twitter follows (though again, I’d encourage simply taking a break, like I’m about to do, from that entire world until about a week before the draft). AdamHarstad You’ll get smarter if you follow him, and be a better a dynasty manager. Incredibly kind, too, which is arguably more important. If you want to avoid falling victim to Berkson’s and other types of selection of bias (well, as much as you can), or simply marvel in awe at someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of PFR, he’s your guy. JMoyerFB He’s the (RB) film analyst I most trust. Underrated follow in this community, I think. (MattWaldman also does great work, but I can’t keep up with his endless stream of content. MarkSchofield is great for QBs.) RayGQue Great devy film analyst. As the rest of my post indicates, I obviously skew toward metrics/analytics. He’s a great counterbalance. (Though they all vary in how film-centric their analysis is, I’d put devydeets, angelo_fantasy, ProFootballPSI, and JordanReid in the same category. 7RoundsInApril is also a great follow for insight into draft prospects.) Not for everybody, but absolutely worth a follow: DevyEusuf All-star Twitter user. Receipts for days, and he’s right more often than anyone else I know when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. His “fuck off” quote tweets are hilarious (or possibly humiliating / infuriating if you’re on the other side.) If you don’t want that energy, then don’t follow, but at least check out what he has to say. Fantasy_Mansion Matt Kelley draws the ire of many on this subreddit for how often he trumpets speed score and breakout age, but there’s a reason he does that: they’re good metrics. He’s built a fantasy football media empire, and playerprofiler is an incredible free tool (which he built). A couple quick hitters (in list form): evansilva and RyanMc23 If you’re not following Evan (if only for his weekly takeaways during the regular season) and Ryan (if only for his DLF ADP data), what are you doing? Fantasy giants. MattHarmon_BYB Reception perception is awesome. sidelinehustle Great at identifying some underrated / good route-runners. GrahamBarfield His yards created model is great. SamWallace_FF Great at spotting talent. HaydenWinks Great points over expected model. LordReebs SigmundBloom MiKeMeUpP Ihartitz ChadParsonsNFL dwainmcfarland ClutchFantasy JerrickBackous DFBeanCounter MetricScout CPatrickNFL PatThorman DBro_FFB ChrisAllenFFWX ZWKfootball 32BeatWriters JetPackGalieo jlarkytweets goldengate_ff FairlyOdd_FF FFNewsletter FF_RTDB DynastyJacobian Justin_14P Whew! That’s all for now, folks. Also, the formatting copied weirdly, so I'm sorry about that.
Happy Inauguration Day, /NFL! While we do our best to keep politics out of this subreddit, it is an important day that I hope everyone appreciates. We had a pretty great Divisional round with some great football being played. We most likely saw the end of an era with Brees possibly playing his last game in the Superdome. We saw the Bills continue their hot streak to advance to the Championship game. We also got scared when we saw Mahomes go down and Henne take over. The Divisional round gave me a 3-1 result. I would love to hear everyone else's final results if you all want to post them. We're down to the final two games before the Big Show with some young dudes playing in one conference and some old dudes playing in the other. Let's do this!
Sunday, January 24th
Matchup
Time/Network
Winner
Comments
Buccaneers @ Packers
3:05p ET on FOX
Packers
Green Bay looked unstoppable against the Rams with Rodgers' efficiency and a running game by Jones, Williams and Dillon. They generated just 94 rushing yards in their loss at Tampa this season ignited by two Rodgers' INTs. The Bucs had five sacks in that game. White and David are speedy LBs who can stuff the run, which will be the challenge for a Packers' O-line. Rodgers needs those play-action opportunities to work with Adams and Tonyan. Green Bay made it look easy against the Rams. Then there's Brady, who's working with a loaded group of receivers. Jones had 113 yards and two TDs in the first meeting, and Green Bay's defense has been susceptible to the run. DT Clark needs to be more disruptive in this game. Gary, and the two Smiths need to pressure Brady, or he will sit back and work down the field. It'll be interesting to see who wins the red-zone matchups between Gronk, Evans and Green Bay's secondary with CB Alexander and S Savage Jr. With these two QBs, it'll come down to a few key plays. The Packers will hold on to a one-score lead at halftime, but Tampa Bay ties it early in the fourth quarter with a Brown/Evans/Godwin TD. It really might come down to which QB has the ball last and which defense comes up with the stop. Then there's the cold of Lambeau Field, which might make a slight difference in this potential epic game. Brady has a chance to make the Bucs the first team ever to host a Super Bowl. He'll just have to outplay Rodgers, who is arguably having his best season ever.
Bills @ Chiefs
6:40p ET on CBS
Chiefs
It's hard to pick this game without knowing whether Mahomes is playing this week, but we're going to go with him playing. It'll be a strong Bills favorability if he doesn't. CEH practiced last week but was inactive for the Browns' game. He had 161 rushing yards in their regular season win against the Bills in Week 6. Williams started over Bell last week, so he could be the focus if CEH can't go. The Chiefs also were without Watkins last week. Kelce and Hill were still in action; they can hit the chunk plays against Buffalo's secondary no matter who is at QB. Bills QB Allen has a stronger connection now with Diggs, who has emerged as one of the best WRs in the league. Allen will target Diggs frequently while Beasley and Brown help take advantage of their 1-on-1 opportunities. The Bills need to generate a running game with Singletary early, and Allen will make more plays this time. Again, this pick still comes down to Mahomes. If he's cleared, then assume he's healthy enough to lead the Chiefs to another Super Bowl appearance. I think Buffalo takes the early lead on a Diggs' TD, and the Bills cling to a third-quarter lead before the Mahomes magic act begins. Second-half TDs to Kelce and Hill re-take the lead, and KC closes the door behind the running game in the fourth quarter. It's tight again, but KC repeats as AFC champions. I think many would love to see a Buffalo upset, though.
Congrats on Tampa Bay, and Brady for solidifying himself as the GOAT with his 7th ring. Seems like Watson and the Texans are at a standstill for now. It'll be interesting to see how the QB market plays out. 1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - There’s been a slight anti-Lawrence movement recently, but IMO it's just really nitpicky. Yeah, Lawrence has flaws, but he’s still a generational prospect who should be a top 20 or so QB right out the gate. Don't overthink this. Lawrence will go 1. 2 - New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, OSU - I dont think the Jets should trade for Watson. Instead, use your picks and build around the new guy of the future. Saleh and Douglas should be able to restart the Jets rebuild with one of the two blue chip QB prospects left. It all comes down to preference here, and I like Fields just a little bit more. 3 - Miami Dolphins - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - It seems like Watson and the Texans are at a standstill rn, so if he’s off the table, the Dolphins should just look to grab the best player on the board. Penei Sewell is just as generational of a talent as Lawrence is, and although he needs some polish up in the technique area, he should be an absolute rock at RT, especially with some development. Sewell would add a huge boost to what has been a deceptively poor offensive line, and allow Robert Hunt to slide down to G. 4 - Atlanta Falcons - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - Sorry Roddy White, but Zach Wilson’s the move here. Passing up on an elite QB prospect in what’s probably the best class in years for a soon to be 36 YO isnt the move. Especially when he’s going to make over 40 mill a year next year. And sure, Tom Brady is still playing at an elite level, but no one else is TB12. Grab your QBOTF now, while you still can and aren't stuck at 8-8. Wilson would give new HC Arthur Smith a great new player to build around while allowing Matt Ryan to mentor him, like Romo and Alex Smith did for their respective QBs. 5 - Baltimore Ravens (Sends OT Orlando Brown, 1.27, 2022 BAL 1st, 2022 BAL 2nd, 2023 BAL 2nd for 1.5) - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - With Orlando Brown wanting out now, the Ravens package him and a bunch of picks to jump up and grab the most surefire WR in this years class. The Ravens really need a true WR 1 like Chase, someone who can snag a pass and fight for more yards, someone for Lamar Jackson to rely on. Chase would give the Ravens receiving corps a true weapon, which would help out Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown’s games. 6 - Eagles - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - The Eagles also need some serious help at WR, and luckily for them, DeVonta Smith is my WR1B to Chase. There’s some size concerns with DeVonta, but he knows how to play. Just look at his performance in the NC. Smith runs great routes and he gets opens, no matter the competition he’s up again, and he’s basically been the crutch to both Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa. He’ll likely continue to be a great safety blanket to whoever the Eagles start is next year. 7 - Carolina Panthers (Sends 1.8, 4.014 to DET for 1.7) - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - Teddy Bridgewater is NOT the QB of the future. Not even close. Trey Lance is probably the last of the QBs that I would consider in the top tier of QB prospects, and being able to sit him a year so he can develop and adjust to the NFL game would be perfect. If Lance hits, he, CMC, and DJ Moore should make a top tier offensive trio in the future. 8 - Detroit Lions (Via CAR) - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Lions really need someone who can lead their defense, especially with a completely new HC coming in. Their MLB spot has been a sore spot in recent times, and who better to fill it than what is supposed to be the best LB in recent memory, a monster do it all guy in Micah Parsons? Parsons would immediately be the best LB on the Lions and should usher in the new era of Lions football. 9 - Denver Broncos - Kwity Pate, EDGE, Michigan - What's happening with Von Miller? All of a sudden, the Broncos are beginning to have issues on the defensive line, especially with a bunch of FAs and Jurrell Casey a possible cut. Kwity Paye should help address those problems. An utterly freaky athlete who’s purported to run a sub 6.7 3 cone, Paye could fit in at both 3-4 OLB and 3-4 DE, giving the Broncos new life at pass rush. It could even be a Ware-Miller situation where Von helps teach Paye how to use his physical gifts. 10 - Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - The Cowboys really need secondary help, and Caleb Farley fits them perfectly. An uber talented, very sticky CB, Farley’s got the talent to come in and immediately be that #1 CB Dallas can build around. 11 - New York Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - The Giants WR corps is pretty meh at best. Slaytons a good WR #2, Sterling Shepard’s a solid slot guy, and Evan Engram is good enough to be awarded a Pro Bowl over much more deserving competition. But they dont have that alpha WR, which is why they grab Waddle here. An uber fast, super shifty speed demon, Waddle forces teams to respect his speed, which should give the Giants offense a shot of adrenaline, especially with Saquon Barkley coming back. 12 - San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama - The 49ers have 0 CBs under contract next year. They need building blocks now, especially with Robert Saleh now gone. Patrick Surtain fits into their zone heavy system perfectly. He’s got elite ball skills, is consistently disruptive, and can stick to WRs like glue. He’d be the perfect guy to replace Richard Sherman if the 49ers can't bring him back, and should be able to slot in at CB1 or CB2 immediately. 13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern - Slater’s turning into an arguable top 10 pick, and the Chargers nab him at 13? Lucky them. He’ll be an upgrade no matter where he lines up for LAC, and with Herbert as the clear star of the future, should give the team someone they can rely on to protect that investment. 14 - Minnesota Vikings - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami - The Vikings really lack pass rush, and theyve shown an aptitude for getting the best out of raw DL prospects. That fits perfectly with Rousseau, a rather freaky defensive prospect who can line up all over the DL. Zimmer and the Minnesota defensive staff can surely fit a way to turn him into a game breaker. 15 - New England Patriots - Kyle Pitts, TE/WR, Florida - The Patriots just need weapons at this point. Their receiving corps is barren, and that really cannot do for much longer. If we’re talking weapons in this year's class, few are as deadly as Kyle Pitts, a big TE/WR hybrid who can line up all over the field and create mismatches. A guy like Pitts would go a long way to improve the current Patriots WR corps. 16 - Arizona Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - With Patrick Peterson likely gone this offseason, the Cardinals immediately pounce on his replacement. No corner in this class is as good as punishing receivers at the LOS, which makes Horn a perfect fit in the press heavy Cardinal defense. Hand in glove here. 17 - Oakland Raiders - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU - Moehrig has been flying up the charts in recent weeks, and for a team that desperately needs a rangy FS, he’d be a blessing for them. It's very hard to predict how Mayock will draft, but Moehrig could be a nice fit as he’s someone who can be a single high safety by himself, something that the Raiders severely lack right now. 18 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Via Miami - sends 1.24, 3.87 for 1.18) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - Big Ben might not like it, but his time as a good QB is over. Watching him in the second half of the season was not a fun experience, and I think the Steelers look to move on from him as soon as they possibly can. Pitt has never been a stranger to moving up for guys they like, and Mac Jones could be the answer that Ben is not anymore. Even if the Steelers lose Juju, they've shown an ability to coach up both their OL and their WRs, which fits perfectly with Jones strengths. Its a new era for the black and gold, and Jones would fit great into the youth movement of Pittsburgh. 19 - Washington Football Team - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame - WFT’s LB corps has been pretty inconsistent this year, and they absolutely need an upgrade, especially considering Bostic’s mediocre at best coverage abilities. JOK is the complete opposite. Call him Verizon cuz he’s got universal coverage. You can line him up anywhere on the field, against anyone, and he’ll lock them down, perfect for the modern NFL where the best players move around to create mismatches. He’ll be a substantial upgrade to Washington’s defensive corps, already deadly with that terrifying DL and good safeties. 20 - Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - ARob is long gone, so Chicago needs someone to take the reins from him. Rashod Bateman can be that someone. A big, sure handed WR who loves to fight for yards, he’d slot in as the #1 target for whoever the hell is under center in chicago next year. 21 - Indianapolis Colts - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - The Colts definitely aren't reaching for a QB here. That means its time to address the next biggest hole, LT. Anthony Castanzo is very much done, it seems like, and for a team that’ll likely be predicated around its run game in the near future, fixing that OT spot needs to be of utmost priority. Darrisaw’s a perfect project for them, with all the size and length to be a great NFL OT as well as one very strong anchor. He’s not a finished project just yet, but he’ll be a damn good piece on the newly rebuilt wall of Indy. 22 - Tennessee Titans - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas - Ossai to the Titans honestly makes too much sense. For a team that not only needs pass rush but also loves dropping their OLBs in coverage at times, he’s honestly a near perfect fit. He’s definitely very raw at the moment, but he should be more productive than Clowney and Beasley combined, and could grow into a very talented EDGE. 23 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida - The Jets need to give their QB weapons, and who better than the joystick like Toney to give it some spark? He’s not the most polished route runner, but damn he reminds me of Deebo Samuel so much. Give this guy to a creative OC, and you can cause some serious havoc with him. 24 - Miami Dolphins (via PIT) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - Miami does need a deep threat, but guys like Nico Collins and Dyami Brown should probably be there on Day 2 or 3. But a game changer like Zaven Collins absolutely will not be. This is a guy who does everything well, who can cover, defend the run, and rush the passer. He kills two birds with one stone here, both addressing the Phins glaring need at LB and giving them some juice in the pass rush. 25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame - Protect your franchise investment. I cannot stress how important this is. Eichenburg’s not the more athletic guy or someone with a crazy ceiling, but he’s very technically sound, and should be a good starter from day 1, a huge improvement over the likely departing Cam Robinson. 26 - Cleveland Browns - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia - Myles Garrett is a one man wrecking crew. But the Browns defense would be so much better if they could make it two. Azeez Ojulari is the best pure pass rusher in the class, with good athleticism and explosiveness for a strong bull rush while having enough bend to perhaps be a solid speed rusher. If he can carry that pass rushing prowess into the NFL, it’ll give Garrett some much needed help, forcing teams to either stop double teaming him or risk Ojulari’s wrath on the QB. 27 - Cincinnati Bengals (via BAL) - Alijah Vera Tucker, iOL, USC - Although LT and RT are now solidified for Cincy, the Bengals OL woes were by far the worst on their interior, and I dont think any of their 3 current iOL should start next year, or something has gone really wrong. AVT is a beast on the interior with great hands, and should immediately start at either guard spot for the Bengals. 28 - New York Giants (sends 2.42, 4.107, 2022 NYG 4th for 1.28) - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami - If Phillip’s medicals clears, this is a guy with top 15 talent. He completely dominated last year at Miami when he played, and with Leonard Williams likely gone from the Giants, they swing for the fences on a high risk, high reward prospect. If Phillip hits, he’ll be an absolute steal here, and I have confidence that Patrick Graham can turn him into a monster. As for the Saints, they move down and probably grab Kyle Trask. 29 - Green Bay Packers - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - I honestly dont like any of the CBs here that much, and the Packers historically dont draft WR or ILB in the first round. Nixon’s probably too much talent to pass up here anyway. This dude destroys offensive lines when he gets to pin his ears back and attack, and with Kenny Clark on the same DL as him, he should get plenty of opportunities to do so. 30 - Buffalo Bills - Wyatt Davis, iOL, Ohio State - The Bills OL needs a retool at either G or T, depending on where Cody Ford ends up playing. Wyatt Davis is a mauling player who knows how to open up running lanes, which is doubly valuable for the Bills considering how much Josh Allen loves to use his feet and scamper. His presence should be a boost to both Allen and the Bills run game. 31 - Kansas City Chiefs - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU - Yes, the Chiefs OL was utterly dominated in the SB, but they were injured to hell, and should be getting a bunch of their starters back next year. But their WR corps also wasn't up to par either, and Sammy Watkins is likely gone this offseason. They really need a big WR who can get separation on his own, and wouldn't you look at that. Terrace Marshall Jr is right there. With the size, athleticism and skill to be a great WR, Marshall Jr would be a fantastic compliment to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, giving Mahomes 3 great players who could all be WR1s in other offenses. 32 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - Donovan Smith has been good this playoffs, but cutting him would save 14 million, which is needed to spend on guys like Godwin, David, and Barrett. And even if Smith stays, the Buccaneers need to get as much help around Brady as they can. Mayfield’s a dependable run blocker with good feet and plenty of athleticism, and if Tampa can utilize his athletic gifts, he’d be a great player to pair with Tristan Wirfs for a nice Bookend duo. And even if he doesnt start the first season, OL depth is always good to have, considering Brady’s age and possible injuries.
Welcome to the week 15 Official NFL Power Rankings! A circle of parity has finally been created in the unlikeliest of fashions, with late season pushes bringing some teams closer together than ever. Will any more bottom feeders continue to prove themselves with two weeks left? Can losing teams shake their bad juju to finish the season strong? Discuss! 29/32 Reporting
#
Team
Δ
Record
Comment
1.
Chiefs
--
13-1
The Chiefs offensive line was going to be a weak spot in this game, and the Saints defensive line took advantage. An already so-so group had to deal with injuries and despite being pressured on over 40% of drop backs, Mahomes still made magic. The Chiefs were definitely given all they could handle though, as they didn't score on 7 possessions and credit is due to the Saints for a good game on defense. An off night from Brees and a solid performance from the Chiefs defense gave the Chiefs offense enough opportunities so they could pull ahead just enough for a win. Will the Chiefs style of letting the offense be the closer at the end of the game continue to succeed? It's hard to say. However, with the 1 seed basically locked up and Mahomes at QB, it's hard not to be optimistic about the Chiefs' chances to get back to the Super Bowl.
2.
Bills
+1
11-3
The Buffalo Football Bills have secured the AFC East title for the first time in 25 years. Not only that, but a Pittsburgh loss has thrust the Bills into the second seed. Josh Allen might have the hottest hand in football right now, coming out in a nationally televised game and lighting a defense up for the third consecutive week. With John Brown due back, this Bills offense is fully primed and ready to make a playoff push. Now, it’s off to New England, where Buffalo opened as six point favorites. Shortsman good, hoodie man bad. No matter how far the Patriots have fallen this year, a big win in Gillette would still feel great.
3.
Packers
-1
11-3
After the start to that game, it was almost disappointing that the Packers didn't score more than 24 points, but the defense stepped up and got the win. Saints and Rams both lost, so now the Pack can clinch the 1 seed if things go their way next week. Next week is the Titans, so a win certainly isn't guaranteed. Not looking forward to Derrick Henry stiff-arming are godawful run D but hey at least the Packer have Trubisky in the back pocket for Week 17.
4.
Saints
--
10-4
A loss to this Chiefs team isn't unexpected; but the Saints will need to return to form to avoid a Steelers-esque collapse. If Anzalone recovers that fumble, who knows what the final result would have been.. The defensive unit got the Saints in a hole early but deserves praise for adjusting and holding Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to their lowest yardage numbers since October, while also keeping Tyreek Hill contained as well.
5.
Colts
+2
10-4
Powerranking convention stipulates we keep our blurbs short and don't write in 1st person. Screw it. After a decade of doing this I have three left before I retire so I'm going to trade in my editorial chips for this one. This Colts team is one of my favorites ever. They're inspiring. I'm going to pull up this highlight as indicative of everything I'm talking about. The AFC is really good this year; the Colts needed this W against the Texans. Houston, driving, final seconds, 4th & 5 from about the 15. Does the pursuit slack when Coutee finds a hole, or even more when he makes a man miss at the 5? Hell no! Not only did Leonard recover perfectly to punch the ball out, I was all about Kenny Moore on this play. Falling on a fumble in the endzone is never as easy as it appears (see Saints ' attempt near the half of the Chiefs game). Moore, in an instant, dives over the ball to block Jordan Aikens from recovering. By doing so, he ensures blue jerseys are at the bottom of the pile and the Colts get out of there with a victory. What heart. What a team. I know it sounds trite but the journey has been worth it, even if the Colts don't win it all this year. Watching veterans like Papa Rios, Xavier Rhodes, and Justin Houston serve as auxiliary coaches to this young Colts team warms the soul. I can't say enough good things about this team. Merry Christmas to all.
6.
Titans
+2
10-4
The Titans were able to get to 10 wins for the first time since 2008 on the back of Ryan Tannehill's 5 TDs against the Lions on Sunday.
7.
Browns
+4
10-4
The door to the playoffs is no longer closed. With two games to go the Browns could very well win the division. The Browns will face the struggling Jets and then a final game against Pittsburgh. Will it all come down to week 17? The history of fans being a stressed out mess says yes.
8.
Seahawks
+1
10-4
The Seahawks scraped by with a win against the Football Team week 15, but oh lordy was it ugly. The decline in the offense continues in even more apparent fashion this week, as someone who simply cannot be the same MVP frontrunner from the beginning of the season completed 18 passes for 121 yards through the entire game. The offensive line, however, did not give up a single sack to the WFT D-Line, which is kinda cool. The defense has absolutely taken a major step forward as of late. DJ Reed played lights out on Sunday, nabbing 1 of 2 Haskins interceptions. He has certainly earned himself a role on this defense even once (if?) Quinton Dunbar returns from injury. Rookie Alton Robinson had a great game as well, getting to Haskins for a strip sack and making his presence felt throughout the game. The Seahawks offense will need to wake up this week as the Rams come to Seattle fresh off a shocking loss to the Jets. Aaron Donald is going to be hungry. PleaseImisstheDKbombs.
9.
Ravens
+1
9-5
Two straight games with 40+ points is looking great on this final playoff push, even if it's against awful defenses. The defense still needs to do more work, though. Congratulations to Matthew Judon for the Pro Bowl invite! Ringo Starr is smiling somewhere. It's also nice to know that Huntley's got wheels, cuz bruhhh.
10.
Steelers
-5
11-3
Hubris. Injuries. Predictable playcalling on offense. Bad throws, guys not catching the ball on the occasions they are on-target. The Bengals played well. The Steelers did not. This wasn't the Steelers playing down to their opponent. This is them simply playing down while the Bengals played with inspiration. It's especially embarrassing to lose after JuJu does a TikTok video on the Bengals logo, fumbles there, and Kevin Greene passes away. Such a bad look. It's time to get serious and RIP to Greene. Arrogance needs to give way to humility and hunger.
11.
Buccaneers
+1
9-5
After starting the game down 24-7, Tom Brady once again did his best William Tecumseh Sherman impersonation and destroyed Atlanta again. Devin White decided to play a (rare) good game, sacking Matt Ryan three times, while Mike Evans had another centennial game. For the first time in 13 years, playoffs appear close to certain for the Bucs. Perhaps, they'll find more success there than they did the Pro Bowl, where only one player from the Bucs was named (Jason Pierre-Paul).
12.
Rams
-6
9-5
There really wasn’t anything that went right for either team this game. For the Rams, a new low was reached in the Sean McVay era as they got outplayed and outcoached in all phases: the inconsistent offense again started too slow, the defense failed to make stops or create any sparks, and McVay made some questionable decisions down the stretch. All this cements the Rams as the most inconsistent team in the NFL, capable of making a Super Bowl run, or losing to an 0-13 team. For the Jets, well, you know.
13.
Dolphins
--
9-5
What a week for the Dolphins! They run the Pats right out of the playoffs and the Jets drop from the top pick in the draft, while the Dolphins top draft pick moved up a bit. That said, while the offense performed very well in the 2nd half, running the ball in a way that the team hasn't in years, they need to figure out how to play an entire game again, because they're in playoff situation football from here on out, and the competition will get better every week.
14.
Cardinals
--
8-6
Hurts and Murray both played well in an exciting game where the Cardinals came out on top to hold onto the final playoff spot, for now. However, the game wasn't without issues. The offense had two redzone turnovers and aside from getting an early safety the defense making Hurts looks like a superstar (which he could very well be) made the game a lot harder than it should have been. Another must win will be a Saturday matinee against the 49ers.
15.
Bears
+3
7-7
The Bears are coming back stronger than a 90s trend and have played themselves into a position to make the playoffs if they get a little help. Driving this resurgence is an offense that has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games for the first time since 2013. The Bears recent W-L record hides a concerning trend by the defense, which has surrendered 27+ points in 3 of the last 4 games.
16.
Washington FT
--
6-8
Washington's 4 game winning streak comes to an end but once again they find a way to stay in the game and have a chance to win in late. This team is proving they aren't an easy out for anyone. This loss ultimately doesn't change their situation much thanks to week 15 results in the division. Their best case scenario at the moment, beat Carolina next week and hope NY falls to Baltimore and they're in.
17.
Raiders
-2
7-7
The season is basically over for the Raiders now. The only good thing to have come from their loss against the Chargers is knowing that the best backup QB in the league is on the Raiders. On to the next game, and thankfully, soon enough, the next season.
18.
Vikings
-1
6-8
The Vikings were effectively knocked out of playoff contention after their injury-riddled defense comprised almost entirely of backups only forced one punt from the Mitch-Trubisky led offense. The silver lining for this Vikings' squad is how good their rookie class looks: Justin Jefferson made the pro bowl after breaking Randy Moss' record for most catches by a Vikings' rookie receiver and is currently second only to Davante Adams in WR grade, Cameron Dantlzer is PFF's highest-graded cornerback over the nine weeks since the Vikings' bye week, Jeff Gladney and Ezra Cleveland are two of the higher-rated rookies at their respective positions, and DJ Wonnum is third among rookie DEs in pressures.
19.
Patriots
--
6-8
Well this is how it happens, worst record since drafting Brady - missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. Can't overstate how the shit Miami running game steamed us, while we failed to steam them at all! Congrats to punter Jake Bailey on being selected to the pro bowl. for sound analysis check here
20.
49ers
--
5-9
Once again, turnovers doomed the 49ers. Two fumbles in the first 6 minutes of the game put them down 14-0. Then after clawing themselves back into the game, turnovers doomed them down the stretch, with Mullens throwing a pair of interceptions to go along with his first half fumble. The Niners are out of the playoff hunt, but expect Kittle and possibly Jimmy G to make their returns before the end of the regular season.
21.
Chargers
+6
5-9
This was more interesting than it should have been. Herbert and Mariota turned this game into the Eugene Air Show, with both QBs trading scoring drives routinely throughout the game. Chargers special teams continued to struggle with two 4th quarter FGs missed, but the Chargers got it done in overtime. Justin Herbert now has the most 300+ passing games by a rookie in league history (7) and ties Baker Mayfield's rookie passing TD mark (27) with two games to go, the first of which will be the final home game this season against Denver.
22.
Falcons
+1
4-10
Some will claim a curse as the only answer as to why a three score lead in the second half means nothing anymore, but they might be underestimating coaching ineptitude. At least they gained as much ground in the draft as Fournette did on this first down. Remaining games in Arrowhead and Raymond James aren't instilling confidence anytime soon, not when a pandemic can't even protect Atlanta from bad man Brady.
23.
Eagles
+2
4-9-1
Even in a loss the jump from Carson to Hurts is looking more solid by the week. Hurts was 24-44 for 338 yards, 3 TD/ 0 INT, you'd have to go back to last year to find a game where Wentz had a better passer rating than Hurts on Sunday. Unfortunately with three of four secondary starters out, Murray had one of his most efficient games to date.
24.
Giants
-2
5-9
The Giants’ offense has reached levels of ineptitude that the defense cannot come close to overcoming. A hobbled DJ nor a healthy Colt are going to be enough to keep Big Blue competitive against Baltimore. Jason Garrett has been as advertised by Cowboys fans, and we’re paying the price for it.
25.
Broncos
-4
5-9
Losing a blowout on a Saturday in the middle of a day in front of an empty stadium during a pandemic in a game broadcast on NFL Network has to be to the most pathetic thing an NFL team can do, no?
26.
Panthers
-2
4-10
Another game, another chance to win or tie on a final drive, and another failure by Teddy Bridgewater. This season has started to become something like Groundhog Day, and it’s not getting better. Yesterday, our GM Marty Hurney was fired over “philosophical differences” on how to build a team. The next GM is most likely going to be in-house, either Pat Stewart (currently Director of Player Personnel) or Samir Suleiman (currently Director of Player Negotiations), and will have a huge decision to make regarding who to take with our first pick and what to make of Teddy “Deja Vu” Bridgewater.
27.
Cowboys
+2
5-9
Thirty points for the second week in a row, and a second win to go along with it. 24 points off of turnovers paint a more complete picture, as this team produced 150 fewer yards of offense than the 49ers, losing the TOP battle by ten minutes as well. Still, improvement exists, and somehow playoffs are not yet off the table.
28.
Lions
-2
5-9
Welp, The Detroit Lions have been eliminated after their loss to the Tennessee Titans Sunday. After two very competitive showings against the Bears and Packers, this week was lopsided. Matthew Stafford decided to play through his injury and played well. Unfortunately, his injury was the least of their problems. Defensively; missing many starters, Detroit was dominated everywhere giving up 46 points. The Lions offense did move the ball consistently, but they were unable to keep pace. A costly fumble by TJ Hockenson on a drive destined to cut the lead to 2 shifted the momentum big time. Detroit made some simple mistakes like missing extra points which didn't help either. Darrell Bevell has two opportunities left to continue to make a case for a job in Detroit or elsewhere. #Onepride (Credit DoseOfDion 2.0)
29.
Texans
-1
4-10
Losing on a red zone turnover to a division rival is bad enough. Doing it twice in three weeks to the same team doesn't numb the pain any further. Not with a blowout loss to the Bears sandwiched in between and the Dolphins reaping the reward of Houston's draft capital.
30.
Bengals
--
3-10-1
After Joe Burrow got hurt things did not go well for a while, and it was hard to see...It's just nice to win one.
31.
Jets
+1
1-13
Sunday's win over the Rams may go down as one of the worst losses in franchise history.
32.
Jaguars
-1
1-13
Finally, the Jaguars manage to slip into first... pick in the draft! There isn't much else to say. The Jaguars are the worst team in football. This trend will continue for the remainder of the season. If anything, fans have the post-season fireworks to look forward to.
Should you buy Amazon stock or has it run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Amazon? Read until the end of the post as I reveal my price target for Amazon and why I believe it can deliver insane returns! ~Warning! Very Very Long Post~ [Disclosure: I made this DD 2 weeks ago & I wasn't part of this Subreddit until the last few days] [Wanted to post this before the next Amazon earnings later tonight!] Hello everyone and welcome to another stock price prediction! Today we are going to talk about Amazon and what’s the upside for the company! So, let’s go over the company a little before moving on to some fundamental, technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years & months. So, let’s start by talking a little about Amazon, yeah, I know it’s one of the biggest companies in the world, but I believe Amazon is still undervalued & underappreciated compared to some of the highflyers that have generate insane returns in the past months, though most of them are still far from profitability and don’t have the growth across all the board like Amazon. Maybe the market doesn't put as much attention in the numbers as I do but I would rather invest in a business which I consider to be healthy and growing rather than a what if stock like many of the recent inflated IPOs. Amazon is a trillion-dollar company growing at a double-digit pace as many companies that are a fraction of their size would kill for this numbers, but this hasn’t helped Amazon since September. On a global scale e-commerce is expected to increase from 16% to 22% of retail sales by 2023. With the U.S. expected to increase its retail e-commerce sales from $374 billion to $476 billion by 2024.This is another thing that supports the growth that e-commerce has in front of it, both as total and as a % of the total retail sales. With the latest report showing a 24% increase in holiday e-commerce transactions and a 19% increase for the 2020 fiscal year. E-commerce is showing signs that it will continue to gain share of the total market as a recent report projects that digital sales during the Black Friday-to-Cyber Monday period will grow by about 35% YOY, reaching penetration of around 32% and growing by more 10B, as this continues to eat up market share from more traditional B&M retailers. I think one of the biggest problems the company has, it’s the actual share price of the company, not the value. We have seen that a stock split can and will attract more buyers and the share price would probably see an accelerated rate of growth, just look at what happened with Tesla and Apple recently. By splitting the stock just like Apple has done a number of times, this allows more individual investors to invest in the company, as they will be attracted by the cheaper share price. Amazon hasn’t done a share split since the dot com era, and it might be time for the company to take advantage of this hot bull market to actually go ahead with something like at least a 5-10:1 split. So, let’s go a little through the latest quarter results and guidance. The company increased the operating cash flow by more than 55% to over $55B for the latest twelve months, with free cash flow also increasing by $6B, while they managed to avoid significant dilution of the company, with only 7M additional shares being outstanding. The net sales also increased 37% in the last quarter to just over $96B, an increase of more than $26B over 2019, which is an insane 36% increase y/y yet again. This year Amazon has also pushed their Prime Day ahead of schedule, which resulted in the two biggest days ever for third-party small & medium sellers, which saw an increase in sales of over 60% over 2019, even bigger than Amazon own retail business. Amazon continues to expand into multiple revenue streams, with the first Amazon Fresh grocery store opened in California, which is offering both in-store and online products. We also saw Amazon’s more profitable revenue streams meaning the services revenues increasing, with Amazon Studios continuing to produce original movies and TV-series while also expanding their offering to live sport games. The company is also seeking to expand into the red-hot Video Gaming market, as they launched a new service Prime Gaming, available for free for Prime Members and also announced Luna which will be a cloud gaming service that will allow customers to play high-quality games on previously owned devices, thus not requiring bigger investments for many customers. They also continued to improve their devices like the Echo, Alexa, Ring and FireTV line of products, which feature more & more AI Improvements. Amazon has also announced an expansion into the pharmacy business which put a lot of pressure on traditional pharmacy companies like CVS & Walgreens, while also announcing a new Halo service, aimed at helping customers improve their lifestyle. I like companies that make me a lot of money, but I also like that they are involved in projects aimed at helping poorer communities around the world, with their latest Project Kuiper, being a low-earth orbit satellite constellation that is aiming to provide reliable & cheap internet access around the world. And last but not least, let’s not forget about the biggest income provider as margin goes, the Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon continued to see significant customer demand for this product with multiple big companies like Global Payments & Moderna using their services. Alongside these 2 companies we also saw AWS providing even more data services for the NFL and many more other companies. AWS has been a terrific revenue stream for Amazon, with AWS having 1/3 of the market share for cloud infrastructure in the first half of 2020, as the compound annual growth of AWS has been 40% in the recent years, just below the other profitable services they offer on subscriptions services, advertising & payments, with the only revenue stream seeing a negative growth being the physical stores. Overall, the company has seen a 28% compound annual growth in revenues since 2016 and an even bigger 68% growth in earnings/share, which is incredible to say the least. So, before even starting, you should now that I am bull on Amazon but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below! I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on… Firstly, let’s start with the Guidance that Amazon gave us for the 4th quarter, as they are expecting net sales between $112B and $121B implying a growth of between 28-38% over 2019. They also provided guidance for the operating income but this is heavily impacted by the problems we had in 2020 and that still continue to be around. The company also is aiming to optimize the free cash flow which was up 26% y/y for Q3, as they are trying to dilute the shares as little as possible. The total net SALES for the last twelve months is nearing $348B which even adjusted for forex is still up 31%. Amazon has only 12% of their revenues coming the AWS right now, but this is by far the most profitable revenue for the company, as the increases in AWS sales have led to an over 90% increase in operating income from the previous year. Let’s take a look at the last quarter’s results. We saw a big INCREASE in all 3 big revenue streams for Amazon, with the first 9 months of 2020 brining over $160B in sales in North America, $67B from International sales and almost $33B from AWS. For my projections I actually just added another quarter like this one to the end results, which actually is a conservative estimate of $96B compared to the guidance of $112B, and the growth rate that Amazon’s net sales has seen in the past year, with North America Sales rising by 37%, International by 31% and AWS by 30%. For the cost of sales, I did pretty much the same, and with cost margin standing at 75% of net sales for the last quarters I think this is pretty safe to say it will remain mostly the same if not even improve due to bigger revenues from the AWS. I also estimated the full yearly costs by adding another identical quarter, just like for the revenues, so that things stay even. For the other operating expenses, I also took this from their financials as I expect both SG&A and R&D expenses to start to normalize a little after the huge spending to ramp up capacity this year due to the increase in demand, while I also did the same thing for the Capex spending of Amazon, as they have invested massively in the last 12 months to ramp up things. Meanwhile for the interest income and expenses I also just averaged things out for the full year while maintaining the other sources of income, but these have such a small impact that they don’t even matter. Amazon has had a pretty wild effective TAX RATE in the past decade, but I decided to see what the avg was for the last 4years, and that was 16%, but for safety and due to the change in administration in the US I decided to bump this up a little to 18%. And one last number that is important is THE earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, which has seen a 36% increase y/y for since 2016. I like to value companies based on multiples of future price earnings. So, let’s take a look at what Amazon earnings/share will be by 2025. I implied for the 3 main streams of revenues which are North American Sales, International Sales and AWS sales a rate of growth similar to the one we had this year but with gradual declines each subsequent year. I also used pretty much the same average cost of sales which includes the actual cost of sales and the fulfillment costs. This has stood at about 75% of the net revenues for the past years and might actually improve, but I do want to stay on the safe side. So, by 2025 the gross REVENUES should reach around $244B, assuming margins stay pretty much in line, though it’s likely they will improve margins, with International sales becoming a little more profitable and AWS brining more & more money. We also have to estimated what the Capex & Operating expenses would be by 2025. I think Amazon should see somewhat of a slowdown of Capex, R&D & SG&A spending, as they have seen a huge boost in the past year, and I think it should normalize, so I will imply an 8% annual growth for these, which is still very high. Next, we look at the interest income, expense and other losses or incomes for the company. This numbers are small compared to the vast cash flows of the company that they can even be ignored, but let’s assume they see a 10% decrease both in income and expenses related to interest while also not suffering losses but having a smaller other income by 10%/year. This would results in an almost $114B income pre-tax for 2025. As I showed you earlier, the effective tax rate for Amazon has been around 16% in the past 4 years, despite the nominal US tax rate. For safety reasons I will use an 18% tax rate, though this should stay closers to 16% on the back of the International taxes. So, with an 18% tax rate, the FINAL income for the company after everything has been taken into consideration should be $93.25B. For the outstanding shares, I will be conservative and imply a .5% increase in outstanding shares, as the company has been very careful in avoiding the dilution of the stock. So, with that increase by 2025, we should have around 531M shares. So, BASED on Price to Future Earnings/share we can see Amazon is currently trading at almost 18 times 2025 earnings/share, which compared to the 90 multiple it’s trading right now would be insanely low. I can see Amazon continuing to trade at very high P/E for the foreseeable future. So, with a 25 PE price the company should trade at 4400$, while with a 50 PE ratio, the stock should be close to 9000$/share, which is insane when you think about that number, but maybe Bezos will listen and split the shares finally. So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets… I think the bear case 2025 price we can see Amazon trade at is $4828 which would imply a return of over 54%, while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that Amazon will trade at 6145$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 96.5% return on the current price. My most bullish case though is $7900, which would imply a return of 152%, with that number being mind-blowing given the current valuation of the company… but I guess we do have to start getting used with such high numbers… I guess decades ago when we saw the first millionaire or billionaire, people would have also thought that it was crazy… but crazy is for the limited minds only I believe. So yeah guys, here is my OVERALL price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 40 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 40-50. So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Amazon by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Amazon has in the past. The company has increased in value by more 450% in just the past 5 years and is over 160.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against one of the biggest and fastest growing companies in the world? The company also has pristine FINANCIALS, with more than $112B in current assets vs only $102B in current liabilities, with over $282B in total assets. So, the company is way more than solvable at any point in the near future. And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can see that the analysts expect a similar EPS by 2025, of around $166 compared to $171/shares that my Growth Valuations are projecting. So, it seems that this could be a very reasonable upside for the company. So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Amazon? Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the high the stock made before the September sell-off. The stock has been trading in this wedge formation for the last couple of months with increasingly higher lows. The stock isn’t overbought and hasn’t been since it saw an RSI of 73 when it reached the all-time highs. I think with this wedge formation building up, with increasing higher lows and with the pattern of trading likely being an Elliot Theory 5 WAVE formation, I think it’s very likely we see a breakout in the near future, maybe just before earnings, and I expect this breakout to mimic the last run the stock had of about 23% up. So, with that 23% increase mirrored that would result the stock should peak around $3900, which I expect to see by the end of the year. And let’s take a quick look at what 47 analysts on wall street are saying. They are mostly very bullish on the company with an average price target of $3800 and a high price target of $4600 which is insane for a return in the next 12 months, as 46 of the 47 analysts are either bullish or very bullish on Amazon. So yet again, the $3900 isn’t that out of possibilities even as Wall Street’s analysts expect So, what would I do? Well, I own Amazon stock and I believe it still has tremendous room to grow, so I would start building a position as I expect the company to resume its uptrend sooner rather than later and the next catalyst may be just a couple of weeks away with the last quarter earnings expected to be announced early in February. And I shouldn’t forget to mention that I believe Amazon is one of the most stable stocks out with very good leadership, and with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley owning huge amounts of the company. So, THIS are my projections and my expectations for the company, and if you do want to check out the spreadsheets you can find the link HERE Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗
Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 4, as well as the latest betting odds. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark . Denver Broncos (PK) at New York Jets The Week 4 NFL slate is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions. Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season is here. Get ready for it with this preview, which includes the full schedule, kickoff start times, TV and live stream viewing info, opening betting odds, pro NFL week 4 Best ATS Picks, previews, stats, predictions. Check out our free NFL picks for all 16 games, complete with betting tips and odds In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season, Patrick Mahomes battles the Cam Newton-less Patriots while Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers stay N.F.L. Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are building momentum and the Bears hope to continue an improbable start. Two games — Chiefs-Patriots and NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 4, highlighted by Buffalo at Las Vegas, Pittsburgh at Tennessee, and Atlanta at Green Bay Experts, Results So Far Gill Alexander, VSIN: SU: 31-16-1 ATS Locks of the Week Cleveland at Dallas . 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Point spread: Dallas -4.5 The Cowboys have not been kind to gamblers through the first three weeks of the season, going 0-3 ATS for the NFL computer picks are computer-generated NFL outcomes that rely only on facts and figures to provide the top, unbiased stats-driven simulated NFL predictions for every game each week over the course of the entire NFL season. NFL computer picks are popular because football bettors trust the accuracy of a computer’s algorithm over human influence. NFL NFL Picks Week 4: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over/Under Lines Expert Predictions. Another Week 4 matchup that is overwhelmingly one-sided on PickWatch is the Thursday night game
