This writing was copied from my blog https://nope-its-lily.medium.com/. I write about the NOPE and other options and market things there and on my twitter https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily. Cheers!
Check out Part 1 first about my thoughts on the short squeeze thesis. To clarify — I do think shorts are being squeezed in Gamestop, although this is auxiliary to the main driver of the stock’s momentum (and not, in my opinion, the primary driver of Friday’s exponential rise).
So okay, let’s go to the obvious question — if hedge fund tears didn’t cause Gamestop to rocket, what did cause it?
Wew laddy, +71.25% at the peak.
Gamestop in many ways is an extraordinary story, and has all the properties of a successful meme stock (salience):

Personal name recognition/Nostalgia-For better or worse, we all know/remember Gamestop (primarily from childhood), which is similarly why Hertez performed so well in the afterlife while Mallinckrodt hasn’t.
A hero and a villain — Much like Tesla, Ryan Cohen represents the hero in the Gamestop narrative, where investors can paint whatever picture of the future they want and justify whatever price tag they pay. Similarly, Melvin and Citron (I mean, even the name Melvin) and the hedge fund industry are (perhaps well-deserved) villains in the arc, helping obfuscate feelings of greed or risk by presenting it as a righteous cause.
A cataly-ish — For obvious reasons Gamestop is benefiting from the console cycle, but perhaps to a lesser degree than before (its massive real world presence during a pandemic doesn’t help much).
Humor-What could be more funny than investing in a relic of the early 2000s? Except maybe investing billions into 3d renderings of hydrogen powered cars.

So it isn’t a surprise Gamestop captivated the attention of the internet; despite common belief, the legend of Gamestop extended far outside wallstreetbets (although the saga of DeepFuckingValue/RoaringKitty there helped bring substantial energy to the cause).
And how does the internet show some love?
Well, it buys calls.
For better or worse, most new investors have absolutely no concept outside of simple long call/put positions (probably for the best, from experience). In general, most new market positions view long options (and, let’s face it, mostly calls) as a highly leveraged bet on the underlying akin to a lotto ticket, which works beautifully for the following reasons:

Long options have asymmetric risk-reward, assuming risk-loving participants.

While in prior posts I’ve touched on the expected profit of options being zero, this is only true (it’s never actually true, due to seller’s, variance risk premium, and a host of other factors) under risk-neutral measure. In the real world, investors (especially on indices) tend to be risk-averse (weighting losses more heavily than chance of gain)… at least historically. The new class of retail investors, on the other hand, partly engendered by Robinhood’s extremely gamified UI tends to be risk-loving (“yolos”), favoring chance of gain over (higher) chance of loss.
For that type of an investor, options are akin to a casino due to convexity, or in layman’s terms, “the potential to go up a lot really fast” in value. This is of course true for stocks too (albeit less so, due to the implied leverage of options), but when an individual purchases a stock they have a rather large downside (the entire stock can become worthless). This isn’t the case for a call option, which only represents a portion of the total cost of the stock, but represents the entire upside.
2. Options have to be hedged… often in the underlying.
Before I get 1000 responses telling me this isn’t always true (especially on indices, where you have futures and all sorts of nice things) — it’s more or less true on a meme stock, which basically has no beta or correlation to any other stock (except perhaps other meme stocks). In general, one can anticipate that an option written by a market maker and sold to a retail investor (who owns a long position from that transaction) is hedged in the underlying stock, which obeys the same rules of buying and selling pressure. This is even more apparent in stocks with low float, which tend to move in price substantially with relatively low volume traded. You can imagine how few option contracts it similarly takes (given the implied leverage up to 100 shares worth of delta) to actually move the price (I’ve seen call options move the spot in real time, for instance, on Del Taco stock before earnings).
3. Option buying begets option buying.
What happens when a few individuals buy options on a stock? It moves up slightly (usually in proportion to how many options were bought, what time period they were bought in, and how large the underlying’s float is). This triggers the happy centers in peoples’ brains (yay, we’re making money) and triggers more buying of calls.
More interestingly, option convexity is largely due to the Greek gamma, which simply refers to the rate delta changes in response to changes in the underlying’s spot price. Delta more formally measures how much we expect the option price to change as the spot price changes, but more usefully for this example can represent how many shares equivalent the option contract controls at the given price. This is why delta represents the hedge ratio — if you, for instance, write a 100 delta (ITM) call option and sell it, you need to equivalently own 100 shares of that stock to neutralize your risk.
Delta is interesting (my favorite Greek) because it is heavily non-linear, and changes in response to:

Spot price (gamma)
Time to expiration of the option (charm)
Volatility of the underlying (vanna)

These are all second order derivatives, so you probably are lost by now if you didn’t take calculus at some point.
So why is gamma important here?
Source: quantik.org
Unlike controlling the equivalent delta’s worth of shares, the value of an option contract increases at a faster rate as it gets closer to in-the-money. This is (one of the reasons) why options have convexity — the value of an OTM call option contract goes up faster as it gets closer to ITM, with a potential for (5,10,100,200+)**-**baggers (multiples of how much you paid for the initial) if you play it right.
What’s even more interesting though than gamma alone, however, is pairing it with theta, the decay of an option’s value as the time-to-expiration draws closer. This tends to have a strong relationship to the implied volatility — theta represents the time value of the option (extrinsic), and implied volatility is largely the market consensus of the potential for the underlying to move in the time remaining on the option. However, as the days tick down, the time for that move to actually happen diminishes, and therefore the value of the option similarly goes down with it.
As IV increases, theta usually does (especially on short term options), and vice versa. (Helpful video by the tastytrade crew — https://www.tastytrade.com/shows/market-measures/episodes/theta-and-iv-05-17-2019)
So, given my tendency to ramble, the question is — why is this important? Let’s look at gamma and theta in the context of 0-day-to-expiration (0dte) options, and try to piece together what happened to Gamestop on January 22, 2021.

0 Days to Live

0dte options have long been a mainstay of the dopamine addicted day-trader community (including me, sometimes) given they represent the purest form of lottery ticket:

They expire at the end of the day — You don’t need to go to bed and worry about your position, because it’s either closed or worthless.
They’re cheap, generally-Theta in particular becomes exponential for 0dte options, and you can quickly buy positions on sale just to gamble as the end of the day grows closer.
They still represent implied leverage and have that tasty convexity-Like their more respectable brethren, 0dte options still represent the underlying and have all the neat Greeks (gamma, delta, vanna, pajamas, etc.) which make their payouts non-linear and fun.

In general, the optimal strategy to capitalize on 0dte long options is to buy as late as possible in the day, to allow theta to provide as much leverage to you as cheaply as possible.

Let’s Imagine a Scenario Here

Let’s imagine you have a high implied volatility stock that has been stable/slightly declining in price for multiple days. During that time period, theta is aggressively destroying the value of long options, while IV is similarly dropping (both due to theta and due to relative lack of movement). As we get to the final day (this is a weekly, for example), much of the option’s value has now disappeared.
This impacts both put and calls open, though. And let’s say a mean orange decided to start a war on your stock in the days before, causing a flood of short-term puts to hit the market during that week, which had minimal effect (largely due to continual call buying of longer-dated options coupled with actual shares buying pressure due to belief of a short squeeze/Ryan Cohen being the second coming of Christ).
What happens when those puts start to expire? As the days and then hours tick down, the hedges of those put positions (shorted shares) start to unwind, and buying pressure picks up.
Similarly, this buying pressure is noticed by market participants, who start to capitalize on the momentum by buying 0dte call options. These at first have minimal impact, largely because the inflow and outflow of call delta are roughly equivalent (somewhat of a bias towards inflow, pushing price up alongside share buying).
But towards the middle of the day, two interesting things happen:

Theta and charm become more and more prominent in both making new option positions cheaper and unwinding existing put and call positions.
Gamma starts to become more dominant due to the high implied leverage versus cost of 0dtes, leading to the virtuous cycle (option buying begets option buying).

These two effects tend to be complementary — as the hedges unwind (given the weekly puts from Citron/the short seller attack) for existing option positions, new 0dte positions can be bought and bought, each time pushing up the underlying as well as increasing the value and delta of other 0dte positions.
This can be neatly observed in the option volume versus open interest for the 1/22 series on GME:
This is fine.
Although more puts traded, the delta (for obvious reasons) of calls is much higher.
As the price of the stock goes higher and higher, this continues to attract more and more speculation, hoping to capitalize on the continued momentum. This continues in a loop:

The price of the underlying continues to increase as put hedges unwind, volatility spikes, and call options are bought (the initial delta hedge).
The increase in price leads to gamma of existing contracts increasing the delta of those contracts.
This leads to more shares being bought to hedge those increasingly higher delta positions.
This leads to more speculation and momentum.

An interesting property of $GME from Friday you can neatly observe is the highest strike in the series is $60, meaning that at Friday’s close, every single call option expiring 1/22 expired ITM. More interestingly is the relationship with gamma, again observable below:
Source: quantik.org
As a contract moves further and further ITM (at one point, GME hit $76 intraday), the gamma of the contract decreases as delta hits 100 on the position. This implies a cap on the momentum from the virtuous cycle described above — while continued call buying can of course drive up the price further, not only does the cost become prohibitive (given that a deep-ITM position is basically equivalent to buying 100 shares in payout), it becomes linear (and therefore boring). Once 100 delta is reached, there is no more cycle of increasing spot price causing increasing share buying, only normal share buying.
And that’s when it drops.
It’s hard to say whether the halt caused the drop (given the mental association halts have to pump and dumps for most investors). In this case the drop assuredly coincided with the halt, but more importantly, we can observe where the drop ended:

57.99 is such a pretty number.
In this case, we can observe the drop in price stabilized at $58, before rapidly jumping above $60. This is largely due to gamma and continued 0dte call buying buttressing the fall — as the positions fell farther OTM, shares used to hedge those positions are sold off, further driving the price down (in this scenario, the dealers are almost assuredly short gamma). However, similarly those positions-now closeOTM and close to expiry-become cheaper at a fairly exponential rate (due to theta and charm).
Speculators again gain conviction, pushing the price up above the highest strike (to the point where gamma provides no real extra push versus the clock ticking down).
This is what we call a gamma squeeze, and isn’t a terribly uncommon phenomenon. It largely follows similar patterns:

In general, gamma squeezes tend to happen closer to OPEX, due to both hedge unwinding (in the case of a previous put skew, for instance) and due to the 0dte effects mentioned.
In general, there is both a rapid rise (due to gamma looping and speculators joining) with a similarly steep cliff (especially if the available strikes is exhausted, like what happened to $GME).

Can it be continued forever, though?

In general, the answer unfortunately is yes.
Gamma squeezes in generally power meme stocks, and require a few elements to be true:

Continued supply of strikes and promise of convexity — Put gamma squeezes rarely happen because well, the maximum value of a put option occurs when the underlying hits 0. Calls, however, have an infinite potential payoff and strikes similarly can be added indefinitely. This allows continued creation of OTM options, which due to cheap premium and asymmetric risk-reward on longs power the gamma squeeze.
Continued momentum-In general, meme stocks follow the greater fool theory, despite promise of rocket emojis. When they drop, they drop hard.

Oopsies.
This is because, as previously mentioned, meme stocks are powered by long calls sold by market makers, who are chronically short gamma. Any selling begets more selling. Even periods of quiescence are dangerous, because without continued inflow of call delta, hedges unwind, and the selling pressure begins.

Continued attention-This is where salience shines. The major reason Tesla (the OG gamma squeeze) continued to rocket throughout 2020 was largely due to Elon Musk’s charisma and Tesla’s promise of a better world. It becomes a lot easier to stomach risk for an investor when following a strong personality with a killer story. This role was largely played in Gamestop’s saga by Ryan Cohen, and fed into (potentially unwittingly) by the battle with Citron and the mystique of DeepFuckingValue. It remains, however, to be seen if this will continue.

The moral of the story here is retail, for better or for worse, finally learned how to weaponize options. We’ll see what happens next.

Jan. 26 Daily HUT Content - What is new?

Jan. 28 Daily HUT Content - What is new?

Hey guys, it’s Coooolin! It’s Throwback Thursday, and 2 more days til the weekend!! How was everyone’s day!? Gooodd ? Baadd? Let me know, dooown beloow !!
Here’s the new cards today, thanks as always EA!

Silver Master Icons

MARTIN ST. LOUIS - 91 OVR - TBL / RW - BAR² , WH²
Billy Smith - 91 OVR - NYI / G - 5’10” / 185 lbs - SWA² , DIS²
*Brendan Shanahan - 91 OVR - DET / LW - H and S² , SH²

Sets

All these guys to upgrade to their 91 OVR cost their specific 86 OVR card , plus 9 Icon Collectables.
9 ICONS TO UPGRADE - short said .
—-

Primetimes

NHL

(Flooded with a team that beat the sens... lets not talk about that game..)
Will Update wanting to pump this out with Silver Master Icons
Elias Petterson - 89 OVR - VAN / C - GLA¹ , PP¹
Matt Duchene - 87 OVR - NAS / C - LTL¹ , MAG¹
Thatcher Demko - 86 OVR - VAN / G - 6’4” / 192 lbs - SPA¹ , BAL¹
JIMMY Howard - 85 OVR - DET / G - 6’1” / 218 lbs - SWA¹ , DIS¹
Nick Cousins - 82 OVR - NAS / C - SPE¹ , WH¹
Jordie Benn - 81 OVR - VAN / LD - SH¹ , PP¹
Jay Beagle - 81 OVR - VAN / C - LTL¹ , GLA¹
Kevin Lankinen - 80 OVR - CHI / G - 6’2” / 185 lbs - BAR¹ , SWA¹
Tyler Motte - 80 OVR - VAN / C - SPA¹ , WM¹
Jarred Tindroi - 77 OVR - NAS / LD - DIS¹ , WH¹

Other Leagues

Zachary L’Heureux - 83 OVR - HAL / C -
Aleksi Klemetti - 77 OVR - KAL / LW -
• • • • • • • • • • - - - - - - - - - • • • • • • • • • • • •

Packs Available

Quantity - 1,736
Double PT PACK - 37.5k C / 750 P
13 items, at least 5 Players with 2 guaranteed Primetime Players.
— From previous day —
23H / 40M
• Jumbo Premium Players Pack - 45k C / 900 P
20 items , all Gold Players, at least 5 80+ OVR Players
• Mega Pack - 37.5k C / 750 P
30 items, at least 15 Gold Players, and 4 80+ OVR Players
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20 items, at least 9 Players with at least 4 Gold Players

P.S.

• Squad Battles Rewards
• New Season of HUT RUSH — 3M POINTS FOR FREE ICON COLLECT

HOCKEY NEWS TODAY

• Hockey History Today
• Winnipeg Jets back in runnin
Fantasy Hockey Pickups
Who should be on your team?

STOCK MARKET NEWS - WHAT JUST HAPPENED

• Gamestop See-Saw
• Disney Rising from its tumbled down
Corona News
• Corona News Today
• Ontario Reports Fewest Deaths

BELL LETS TALK DAY

• Bell Lets Talk
• Bublé is in on BLTK (Bell Lets Talk Day)
That’s the most important stuff I found today!
——————

What’s to Come?

• New Event Tomorrow - 5pm EST
• Weekend!!
—————

Summary of the day

Quick Read
Best Forward of the Day - PT - is ELLLIIAAASS PETEERSSONN OVR 89 with the syn GLAAADDIIATOORR and PASSSINN PLAYYMAKERRR
Best Defence of the Day - PT - is JOORRDIIEE BEENNNNN OVR *81 with the syn SHUUTT DOWNN and PASSSINN PLAYYMAKERRR
• Squad Battles Rewards!!
• New Season of HUT RUSH!
———— —— ———

Important Notice

Today is Bell Let’s Talk Day. Today is a day where Mental Health is in full action and everyone talks about it. You can help Bell Lets Talk Day gain money for Mental Health by; tweeeting #BellLetsTalk , Snapping friends with the Bell Lets Talk Day filter, sharing / liking / commenting their post on Facebook...and many other ways, as well as the obvious - simply donating.
Mental Health is HUGE especially with everything going on in the world.
Please know you are loved, cared for, and that your someones reason to smile, and wake up. You are a blessing to this world, put here for a reason. You are so strong, capable of anything you put your mind to. I know I am just some stranger on the Internet that does these “Daily Posts” but I am here for anyone in need of just talking about their problems, venting away, or just someone to talk to.
Bell Let’s Talk Day is one of my favourite / least favourite days because I personally love talking about Mental Health.... but I personally believe that it should be a week, or a month.. or just seriously for more people to talk about it on a daily basis.
Let’s end this stigma around Mental Health.
You can make a huge difference to someone’s life. Simply just be nice to one another, smile, and just say “I appreciate you” or some nice positive thing like that.
You recieve what you give away... karma goes a long, long ways.
I hope your 2021 and years to come are full of love, happiness, kindness, laughs, blessings, and success.
You deserve what you give to people. So if you give hate —- I’m sorry, but you’ll recieve that..
Love you all, I’m very appreciated of everyone who likes these posts, and strives me to keep posting. Its so much fun!!
My PM / Chat is open to anyone !! Don’t be afraid . We’re all in this together!!!
——

Interested in Stocks?

EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Jan 28
$ 143.01 (usd) —- Currency Converter
we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd
—— That is a difference of ( $5.47 / 3.98% ) —
Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. Happy Investing.*
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NEED A SOUNDTRACK TO LISTEN TO?

I made this for everyone. I’ll update it whenever I feel like it, but its been often!

TONS OF PEOPLE SEEM TO LOVE THE PLAYLIST!! How are you not listening to it already!?
Comment songs to add, and please give feedback! It’s much appreciated!!
I currently have “Skin” by “Sabrina Carpenter” stuck in my head.... which you can play, recently added to the playlist!
Sidenote - How do you guys like the playlist!? I have a friend who makes music...and I really want to surprise him with some new people listening to his music... if you wanna help me, please click Here!! it would mean a lot to me!!
———-

Sites To Bookmark!

If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated)
A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go!
Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!.
Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click!
Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub!
.... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!!
When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen”
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Fighting a Gambling Addiction?

Don’t feel scared to click here. Winning is SO much louder than losing. Know that you are NEVER alone. We are all here for eachother, and it is never too late to get help. I am here for you.
This is a VERY important thread, especially if you are new to HUT. Here!

Story Time!!!

“Happiness” - By Anonymous Person
Then I stopped to think, if helping a little kitten could make me smile, maybe doing something for people could make me happy.
So the next day I baked some biscuits and took them to a neighbour who was sick in bed.
Every day I try and do something nice for someone. It made me so happy to see them happy.
Today, I don’t know of anybody who sleeps and eats better than I do. I’ve found happiness by giving it to others.
When she heard that, the rich lady cried. She had everything money could buy, but she had lost the things money cannot buy.
The beauty of life does not depend on how happy you are; but on how happy others can be because of you.
Happiness is not a destination, its a journey. Happiness is not tomorrow, it is now. Happiness is not dependancy, it is a decision. Happiness is what you are, not what you have!
P.S. - Hope you have a happy fun filled day
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28 / 365
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Thanks for reading.
I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on.
If there’s anything missing, please let me know!
Take care, happy gaming! TODAY IS BELL LETS TALK DAY!!
• Coolin Killin It
(Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)

ACAC Spac (PlayStudios): A Solid Risk Reward Longer Term Play (Long)

Hey guys, I have a bit of a long DD on ACAC / Playstudios. You can read the text below. If you want to see the full post with all the nice pictures, you can check it out here. I was too lazy to upload each picture individually to Imgur. Apologies in advance.
I've seen numerous people on Reddit compare the ACAC / Playstudios SPAC to Skillz, and some even to Draftkings. I think this is mainly because they're all in the online gaming / gambling industry, but aside from that, the companies themselves are quite different.
I think a more apt comparison should be between Playstudios and Playtika (Ticker: PLTK), since they operate in the same vertical, compete against one another in mobile slots games, and Playtika has publicly available financial data in which I will be making comparisons against.
Playtika Analysis
You can find Playtika's prospectus here
First and foremost, Playtika is one of the leaders in the mobile casino space. They have an assortment of games, and they themselves are diversifying into more casual games (similar to what Playstudios says they are trying to do), but their bread and butter are casino games, and the ones that make the most money for them are slots.
Slotomania, House of Fun, and Caesars Slots are all mobile slots games, and as you can see from the above, they generate a significant portion of Playtika's revenues (roughly 50% of their 2020 revenues).
OK, so why do I keep bringing up Playtika? Well, they had a very interesting graph that shows how much of their revenues come from different segments of their user base, based on when they acquired those users.
What this chart is saying is that 45% of their revenues came from users acquired from 2013 and earlier!
This is insane! They have such high user retention and user LTVs, that they're still monetizing a portion of their users that they acquired from 7 years ago.
If we go up to 2017, then roughly 75% of their revenues come from users acquired 2017 and earlier!
This is important because Playtika's oldest games are all slots games. So this is telling us that users that play mobile slots games, they tend to stay with those games for extremely long periods of time, and if they do stick with them, they spend a lot of money! This is great news since the vast majority of Playstudio's revenues come from mobile slots games.
If you look at Playtika's financials, you'll notice pretty nice revenue growth. However, a lot of that is non-organic, and was accomplished through M&A. This was because in 2016, Playtika was acquired by a consortium of Chinese game companies for $4.4 billion (including Giant Network, a well known gaming company in China), and they need to make revenue numbers higher to have a better story to sell for the IPO.
And part of their strategy was to diversify into casual games, and they did so by acquiring about 15 companies since 2016, including Wooga (developer of June's Journey, a very profitable find hidden objects mobile game) and Supertreat (developer of Solitaire Grand Harvest, a profitable card game).
However, one of the caveats of casual games is that the ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) is lower, and retention is lower than casino games. I did my own calculations on Playtika's ARPPU for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you can see the noticeable downtrend. This was obviously not disclosed in the prospectus. Only ARPDAU (average revenue per daily active user) was disclosed.
My belief is that even though ARPPU and retention are lower, maybe the market is giving a higher multiple to casual games. I believe that even though online gambling is beginning to see legalization in many states, and more and more people are starting to be open to it, there is still a bit of a social stigma associated with it, and certain investors may be wary to investing in a pure "casino" play. That's why Playtika is making such a concerted effort to move away from purely casino games, and positioning itself as an mobile entertainment company. Another reason is also the immense competition and high user acquisition costs, but Playtika has shown that they are more than able to execute on a long term strategy here.
Playstudios Analysis
Before jumping into anything else, I want to go straight to Playstudio's financials.
The reason is because I think there's a lot of fluff here, and I want people to know the bullshit. But even when you see through the bullshit, the downside is still mitigated enough to warrant this play.
So first off, take any numbers you see from 2022 with a grain of salt. No one knows what's going to happen this year, let alone two years in the future, and in my eyes, those 2022 numbers look extremely unrealistic. Revenue growth will probably not be that high, unless they make some big acquisitions, and EBITDA margin expansion probably won't be that fast.
Revenue Growth
Playstudios is planning on launching a Bingo and an RPG game, and their plan is to aggressively spend on UA (User Acqusition) in 2021. Their hope is that revenues will scale up with their UA, and by 2022, they can lower their UA spend a bit, and continue to monetize the new games exceptionally well, maybe at an even better rate than 2021.
I think this is a bit farfetched, especially in such a competitive space as Bingo. I've done analysis on Bingo games before, and some of those games have also been around for 8 to 10 years, and they can't expect to just launch a game and have it ramped up to their expected revenue in a year's time. Development for those games requires game designers, people who are very good at math, product designers, and a many other people, which can make the development timeline quite long (at least a few months, for a more finished product, I think at least half a year for these guys). I think a more plausible scenario is that they acquire a smaller Bingo player, and then begin optimizing that game, and add in their own loyalty rewards, as that's the quickest way to ramp up revenues post IPO.
My guess is revenues are not going to ramp up as quickly as they expect, and they'll see limited revenue growth here, and still mainly see some growth from better monetizing their slots players. I think by 2022, somewhere between $350 million to $400 million in revenues is more reasonable, and I'd probably lean towards the lower end of that range.
Margin Expansion
In terms of margin expansion, I think the decrease in cost of sales is doable. It seems like there is some extra fat there that they can trim as they scale. The cost of sales is mainly the tax that Apple and Google charges when users make a purchase through their respective stores, and this is a flat 30%. I doubt they'll get it less than 30% any time soon, but that will probably be through getting their whales to make purchases outside of the Google Play Store or App Store, and using a much cheaper payment processor.
I think a long term goal of 20 - 25% for UA spend is reasonable. I'm OK with these numbers, though they may need to spend more initially to ramp up new games. One of the benefits of their loyalty rewards program is that they can have higher retention, and this might be a way for them to lower their UA spend, since people may be more willing to tell their friends about a free trip or prize they won through a mobile game.
Another reason I'm OK with the UA spend is because it seems like they have a pretty knowledgeable UA team. I have access to App Annie, a data analytics company that tracks mobile apps, and I checked out the download history for POP! Slots, one of Playstudio's mobile games.
You'll notice that US downloads spiked quite a bit in March. This is right when COVID-19 was beginning to spike in the US, and people began working from home. In the mobile app world, many apps had spikes in downloads in March and April 2020 because there was a much larger pool of users looking to download apps. CPAs came down, and companies that had strong UA teams were able to capture a lot of these new users. Thus, this tells me that Playstudios UA team was at least aware of ongoing trends in the mobile app space, and they were able to capitalize by gaining more users during that period of time.
The biggest issue I have is with the "All Other Expenses." I don't know why it's this high (R&D and G&A shouldn't be that high), and Playstudios definitely needs to do some expense cutting here. While this has the most room to cut, it may be the hardest since I'm guessing a lot of that cost is from legacy employees. But if they can get this to around 30% by 2022, I'll be happy.
Playstudios Has No Daily Active Users (DAU) Growth
This is a common issue I see raised on Reddit and I want to address it here. Below is another chart from App Annie, which has DAU estimates.
As you can see, DAU has remained pretty flat for the past 2 years, roughly between 150K and 200K users.
But have you considered that revenues were actually increasing during this time? This means that Playstudios is becoming more efficient at monetizing their current users (getting more money out of older players), or their user acquisition team is targeting more profitable users.
And this is just how the game is played in the mobile apps world.
Users will eventually get sick of a game and stop playing. Not many games can count on users organically finding their game, and continuing to play indefinitely. To maintain a certain DAU, companies generally have to spend money on UA to maintain that user base. It becomes a business where you are calculating how much you are spending on UA, and whether the LTV and retention are good enough that you can make money in the long run from those users. You can think of it as an ROI on your marketing spend.
And this is especially true for mobile game apps. If it were a social app, then yes, something like the network effect can come into play, and UA spend would be much lower. But for Playstudios, maintaining a steady DAU is actually a sign that their UA team knows what they're doing, and they're able to maintain a profitable and highly efficient business. It's actually a positive that they can maintain their DAU, and even INCREASE their revenues during that period.
End Game?
I don't actually know how this will end up. I don't give price targets cause I have no idea how the markets will value this company. But I can provide a few data points so that you can make your own decisions.
From a multiples standpoint, Playstudios is cheap on a revenue multiple basis compared to Playtika, and is about the same from an EBITDA multiple basis.
I personally don't think that Playstudios is a play that's going to 5X. Hell, even 3X I think will be a stretch. But, they do have a loyalty program that will help lower their UA costs, and extend the lifespan of their users. And they are moving into more types of games to diversify their revenue source.
The reason I like this play is because I think the downside is heavily limited. The lifespan of casino slots players are so long, and the revenues are pretty stable (even growing), that there isn't an immediate risk that revenues will all of a sudden drop 30%, as is the case with lots of other mobile game companies. Add on top of this the potential for new revenue growth drivers from Bingo and RPG games, and the potential for margin expansion, that this is an easy 30-50% upside from current prices with almost minimal downside.
One last minor bit, is that I'm sure lots of people missed out on the hype surrounding Draftkings and Skillz, and I'm sure there are some retail investors that will look for any type of casino / mobile gaming / gambling deals, and may jump on this as well. My feeling is that there is also a potential upside from the hype or FOMO factor.
Anyway, this is my analysis on Playstudios / ACAC, hope you guys enjoy.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. These are my personal views and analysis on Playstudios. Please do your own due diligence.
Disclosure: I own 400 shares of ACAC.

Looking back on a year of Nano development - Presented by NanoLinks

My opinion is that buying 10 shares at a time is better than buying in bulk, prove me wrong.

Hey guys, this post is not intended to tell you what to do. I'm not a financial advisor. This isn't my day job. I am not even a day trader. I learned the difference between call and put options like 3 months ago. I don't trade options. I don't even know how yet, to be frank. I recently got an RH account to try to learn how and then this shit blew up. This post is viewable to the general public and is not "insider knowledge". Everything I am about to say, I have gleaned from PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE DATA. That Hedge funds and other people in the media, the government, and in the general public ALL have access to. This is MORE VISIBLE than even Facebook. Let alone a country club or private "dinner party". Just saying. I am a real person. I am not a bot. I am not trying to screw anyone over. I like the stock I am choosing to gamble my disposable income on and think it will be a good investment regardless of the action over the next few weeks. 💎🙌
I CAN earn it back if I have to. I didn't stake my entire savings. I don't advise people to gamble with money they don't have. Not for financial reasons, solely, but more for mental health reasons.
Bias disclosure: I currently have 1882 shares of AMC at an average price of 9.27$ and I occupied Wall Street for a bit after the financial crisis, mostly on reddit as I was in medical school at the time, and supported occupy the SEC. Please see my post history. It's all there in the top posts. I have nothing to hide as I know I am a valued member of our society, I pay my taxes, I treat mental illness, I follow the law, and I don't normally gamble. This is not about the money for me personally, it's about principle. It's my token of rememberance for the failed actions of our government to hold these types of people accountable for the great recession and the subprime mortgage crisis. Also, WSB just happened to stumble upon these criminal vulture firms, in the act of active company rape and decided to give them a licking. If you were interested in GME and were one of the people on the other side [IE at one of these firms] reading the discussion over at WSB should have been your job as a form of market research. If you missed the warning, it's not Reddit's fault. If you suck at your job, it's not Reddit's fault. I don't see how pinning them in that position was illegal. It wasn't planned, it wasn't private. It developed organically like a movement. It continues to grow. Silencing us will only make it louder. You need to level the playing field and regulate the markets. What they did to defend themselves was illegal. The manipulation of the market and the media was illegal. The restriction of buying was illegal. The algorithmic ladder attacks were illegal. Thus I will hold the line, as I HAVE been since Tuesday. It's been a wild ride and I'm tired of this shitshow. I want to get back to normal investing after this fiasco. It's much better for my sleep.
*So here goes my theoretical question. AGAIN, I AM NOT saying you SHOULD do this. What you do is your call. I am asking if this has been done before or if it even can be done. I'm a n00b. Educate me. I'm trying to learn how the arena works. Like how it really works.
If short ladders by algorithms are being used to artificially deflate the stock price. IE: tanking the price of AMC with low trade volumes that they simply pass amongst themselves. I think yesterday it was 5% buy and hold and 95% sell for AMC but each time with low volumes in a very predictable pattern. (Trey from the link below explained it very well several times better than me.)...
What prevents retail traders from spacing out their purchase orders to 1-10 shares at a time and holding. Wouldn't that be better than just impulse buying 100 shares because you want in and you like the stock? Would it do the same thing as short laddering but in converse? Just curious. Would like to hear your opinions.

I've been watching this channel to learn about AMC action and markets in general and it has been super educational.

*I am not investing in AMC to make a quick buck. I am not a day trader or a pump and dumper. I am doing this because I think AMC will not die from the pandemic, was artificially deflated by vulture hedge funds, almost to the point of bankruptcy, and will NOW be able to pivot into a better business model with fresher screens, Hollywood exclusive releases, fancier theaters, pent up demand, etc., with the new capital and public interest. People LIKE the MOVIES. I grew up in NJ and movie theaters were a HUGE part of my life and many of my most memorable moments occurred at the movies. They make me warm and fuzzy. They have a certain nostalgia for me personally and I like supporting local business when I can. [I know AMC was bought by China, but the staff are all local]. In my opinion GME has an antiquated business model bc I buy games on STEAM and online. AMC was only struggling because of COVID and I don't think that otherwise people would completely stop going to the movies. We Americans LOVE going to the movies. I love going to the movies. That's just my opinion. Don't hate on me for it. I think that the "real value" of AMC is AT LEAST about 10-20$ which is what they were at before 2020 and it wasn't even their peak value. Even if the real value is closer to 5$, according to the arguments of experts, that's just their fucking opinion. It's a different situation now and I don't agree. Is that my right to disagree with them and pick my own stocks? Or can I only bet on what Fox Business tells me to. Or Jim Cramer. As an individual investor, am I free in this country to spend my money how I want on the stock market, or am I not? Am I free to make my own choices about whether to buy a stock or not? At least I think I should be. If I am not, it will solidify my opinion [and the watching world's opinion] that "free market" capitalism is indeed a farce. It will highly depreciate the value of the American dream and my respect for our current government. Which I was Ecstatic about during Election Day. [Disclosure, Bernie/Liz Bro, who voted for Biden and abstained from voting in 2016 due to bitterness about the primaries. Damn you DWS, you know what you did.] We all know the hedge funds sure are free to buy as much stock as they want to. Apparently even to buy stock that doesn't exist. WTF is that? Glad I found out now. Even if I lost 8k by betting it will be 10$ in 2022 rather than 5$ isn't it my CHOICE when to sell? Am I not free to HOLD the damn stock if in my opinion, I'm willing to consider it a tax on sending a giant reddit shaped middle finger into space to these people that rape companies regardless of the consequences to local staff? These parasites who prefer profit to morality and decency? Who sold their souls in the search of...what?...private islands and yachts? Let THIS MOMENT be your Memento Mori, you soulless motherfuckers. If you have any of it left, now is your time to search for it. Your actions will leave behind a husk of an economy and earth if left unchecked. We the Reddit "Retards" stumbled upon our teeth. For the first time the MARKET BITES BACK AND WE ARE NOT LETTING GO. WE ARE MAKING A STAND. FUCK YOU. We all know that the American Citizens will end up footing the bill anyway in taxes when all those people start relying on the government for survival after you motherfuckers artificially drive their employer into bankrupcy. FUCK YOU. You're already taking my money and you know it. I pay 47% in taxes due to my income and living in NYC. FUCK YOU for evading them with offshore accounts you GREEDY FUCKS. I am willing to lose 8k to do that (send you a message) and to rapidly learn about what is going on to manipulate markets. It's also partially the cost of education in my calculus. I have learned more in one week riding this wave, than in 4 years of getting my Economics degree. Either way, my current buy in as at 9.27 so I will hold at least until I make my initial investment back. I am also disclosing that if the stock goes up to 30$ I will likely SELL enough shares to cover half of my position because I am not a degenerate gambler and have been holding the line since Tuesday and it has taken a toll on my sleep and my sanity. I know I might lose some money and this is a crazy roller coaster. I want to get out most of my investment ASAP and then ride the wave to then END with you all. IF it happens. I know it may not. I don't care. The message seems to have been sent. Seems like they received it. But we don't know who will be regulated and how yet. I am tired of this fight. I don't like it. I don't want to do it anymore. But I stayed in for the principle not the principal, and for the people just finding out about this now to still be able to make a choice about what to do before we release them from the HOLD. This is a constantly evolving situation. Will they censor the media from talking about stocks? Why target Reddit? Reddit is LIKE the media. It's not a private chat room. THESE WORDS CAN BE READ BY ANYONE WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION AND WE ARE AWARE OF THIS. If it falls, and I lose my money, I don't think the government will come in and save me. I don't expect them to. I EXPECT them to let this play out and not SIDE with these assholes. It upsets me that they seem to have decided to save Vulture capitalists. Anyway, despite my fear of posting this question and the associated rant, I really want to know the answer. Has it been done before by Algorithms pushing stocks higher? Is it possible to make a crowdsourced one? Is it legal?
If this gets removed or censored in some way. You have your answer I guess.
facta non verba.
Thanks.

****IMPORTANT ADDENDUM****: I want to add that I was quite revved up when I wrote this and have had some time to reflect. I want to stress that it is not my intention to lay blame or judge any individual person or organization for the current situation [Of stacked odds in the retail investor vs hedge fund battle]. Emotions run high in the stock market. I know this through experience now. I was angry when I wrote this post. [I am leaving it unedited for posterity and since whoever needed to see it already saw it so removing it would be pointless] This should not become a witch hunt or be personal. These guys and girls are people too. They work for a corporation. They earn a paycheck. They have friends, partners, and families too. I am a person. You, reader, are a person. Don't make this personal. They didn't invent algorithms and weren't the ones that necessarily wanted to take these short positions. The market calculus at the time, dictated that this was a good call for them, it wasn't. We accidentally stumbled upon it on WSB and shit-posted about it until it blew up and they were really in a bind. I understand their calculus to a degree, but I am a "smooth brained" "retard" when it comes to these things. I am learning fast though. I understand that certain companies are likely to fail and it is possible to make a profit off that. My moral views about it are irrelevant as the situation they're in dictates their actions, not my personal views about that. I understand that they're getting screwed at the moment and I'm sorry. I truly hope most of them do not get too damaged by this and have had time to change their positions. But I also believe in the American dream, and think that the people that were able to find a good position in the stock market [the retail investors] should be rewarded. I sincerely hope this doesn't trigger a massive systemic issue and we don't accidentally BREAK the stock market with this action on those stocks. It doesn't seem like that would happen, but again smooth brain here. WE NEED THE MARKET TO STAY ALIVE to have peace and stability in this country. Reddit crew, I beseech you, please understand that the individuals involved are also playing by the rules given to them by the market. The problem I personally have is that the rules are different for the retail investors vs. the big institutions. I don't have a problem with them as people. I don't want to destroy anything or any institutions. That was never my goal as an activist nor as an investor-activist and I can only speak about myself. I just hope they could find it in their hearts to try to understand our outrage and consider playing by the rules or at least letting us play by the same rules. We are attacking them and they don't like it. I get it. In either case, please understand that I am not vested too strongly in either outcome anymore. I am tired and want to return to my regular life and will not be on reddit for a while, nor will I be investing any more money into the stock market for a while... The whole thing has taken it's toll on me and I am going back to my regular life. This is not my war.
On the government's side, I also understand that their goal is to enforce the rules. I hope I'm not breaking any here and will remove my posts if I am. I am not trying to cause a revolution. This country has been through too much and we finally have a shot at beating COVID and have a competent administration that can guide us back on the right track. I truly believe that the people in charge now are decent people and will do good for this country. If Biden says no more diamond hands, I will listen to Biden. What I do further with my shares shall remain my business otherwise. I will no longer tell anyone what I am doing with my shares. I realize now that this is not always a good idea and should be done with tact and experience. I am not a financial advisor. But also, financial advice and being one is not a joke. I realize this now. MEMEing about stocks is like MEMEing about drinking bleach. People might listen to you and sacrifice their lives on a losing battle. Not everyone knows the stakes and not everyone knows what they're doing. Now that this is blowing up, people can get really hurt financially. Reddit, we could be putting people in danger. I see this now. So you all, too, reading this, PLEASE be careful. About investing and about what you say on social media. INVEST but INVEST RESPONSIBLY and not with money you can not bear to lose. I pledge that I will personally no longer post any inflammatory shit on Reddit. Because now I'm afraid that WE are suddenly some form of weird market makers and I don't have as many lawyers as the hedge funds. I am tapping out from posting any more about the current battle. I wish you all luck on both sides, truly. In the next round tomorrow.
Dear Government: If you want this to end, don't you have the power to delist these "Meme" companies and distribute the shares somehow? If not, the the system is truly stronger than our institutions. If you do this, please make sure people don't lose their life savings somehow. That would be nice. Then, please try to make sure this won't happen again and that the SEC actually regulates and prosecutes people so their calculus isn't that the fines are too low to justify following the rules. [Just my humble opinion as a smooth brain with limited experience of markets. Do what you think is best and I will obey the laws as an individual]. Sorry you might disagree hedge fund guys and girls, but I am entitle to my opinion in a free country. This is my platform. You can have CNN and Fox News. Sorry for saying something. I promise this is the end of it. But also, a lot of market makers on TV seem to assert that the market will self correct and I don't see how this should be a large risk for overall wealth. Who knows, none of us can predict the future. But I think if a bunch of Reddit "retards" get a couple hundred thousand bucks, it won't change the overall situation or necessarily be a net negative; and may in fact trigger a renaissance in this country. You'll still be the biggest fish, just in a more biodiverse pond. It may just create a new class of petite bourgeoise in this country. But it is not likely that if they win, it will cause something like the French Revolution. There will be losers and winners, but in the end, it will be a good story for Hollywood. [Hopefully played on an AMC screen in a post covid world] But what do I know, I'm a just another "retard" on reddit.
I hope that after this, you are all decent humans at the end and don't break any law on all sides. [Reddit, Retail investors, Government, Hedge fund investors, etc] I hope we don't break the market over this. If that is a true risk we need to make the market unbreakable or this WILL keep happening. If anyone is resentful about losing future gains on a good position so the government can fix the market, don't be a fucking greedy idiot and look at what we've achieved so far. This is already a big win for the small guy. And if our markets are vulnerable, the next winners will not be idiots on reddit. But will likely be our enemies from abroad. Not to name names. We will ALL benefit more from long term stability than short term gains. We MUST come together as a country so we can spend that money in the future for things. If we break the stock market, we will not be able to buy things with all that worthless money. But if the system isn't at risk, I don't understand what all the hullabaloo is about. There have been countless bubbles before. Why weren't those regulated as much. Maybe they were and I'm an ignorant smooth brain. In any case, I hope that we can stop fighting over carcasses for greed. This was always about making the rules of the casino fair for me, personally. It's not life or death. I'm not an extremist or an ideologue. It's not about burning down the casino. I hope that the government will intervene if they think it is going to short circuit the whole thing and that people reading this gamble responsibly.
This will be my last post about this as I have a life to live.
-Tememachine OUT.

EDIT 2: Now they're making fun of the movement. Fuck Wall Street. I hope they get what's coming to them one day. [In terms of regulation and prison sentences] I'm still out of this war. But seriously. Fuck them.

How do you want to do this? A Discussion on Selective Rule Enforcement and the application of the "Rule of Cool"

Hello folks,
For my research analysis and writing class my professor let me pick any topic I want. (her mistake) So for my final term paper I chose to come up with a method of determining a guide to the use of the "rule of cool." I got a A on the paper so I figured I'd share it with you fine folks as well. It is rather lengthy so I've included the abstract first. The 8 tips for dungeon masters is near the end (third session), the first and second parts deal more with the philosophical and ethics of games. So, if situational ethics and a discussion on the Mechanics, Dynamics, and Aesthetics of Play are of use for you, be my guess.
I am a relatively new DM so I spent a long time researching and trying to absorb what would make me a "good DM". With that cavate please keep in mind I know next to nothing compared to a vast majority of the DMs here. I can think of no place better to have this paper peer-reviewed, picked apart and "rebutalled" to death than here. If you feel offended, challenged, or angry reading this... Please understand I am a moron borrowing the works and words of far smarter people. If you feel that "this is the WAY" again... I am a moron... so ... with out further ado.

Abstract:

The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency using fanatical legalism in a game can be a source of contention between someone acting as a referee and/or “Game Master” and players of a game. Likewise, to approach games with a sense of fanatical antinomianism, or to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want, tends to offer no challenge, and or reason to play that specific game. Using ethical theory frameworks such as situational ethics, natural law, and utilitarianism this paper seeks find the philosophical principles of what moments are acceptable and actually beneficial to bend the rules of a game. As such, it is important to define games, briefly discuss why games are played, and roles rules have on games. The game Dungeons and Dragons 5th edition will be used as the principal example. With “rule for rules” established, seven tips on how to implement it this rule using advice and guidance from some of the most well known “Dungeon Masters” in the modern era will be provided.
Much of this paper relies on the works of Joseph Fletcher, Sheila Murphy; Benard Suits, Robin Hunicke, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek for the ethical and philosophical discussions around games. For the practical advice, it relies primarily on the works of Matthew Mercer, Brennan Lee Mulligan, Benjamin Scott, Patrick Tracy, Kelly Mclaughlin and Monty Martin.
Players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, seek out what is best for them. Games are about many things but principally about enjoyment. It’s okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. How it happens is up to the players, the one running the game, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?”

**“Once upon a time, around a table…”

A man behind a cardboard screen sits across from a woman wearing a funny hat. He is frantically reading through the pages of the various books at his disposal. He finds the reference he is looking for, but it is not clear. “It is technically against the rules, it is barely within the realm of possibility, but the idea is so creative…” the man murmurs to himself. Exasperated, the man smiles a crooked grin and explains, “Well you can certainly try… give me an acrobatics check.” The woman throws a piece of plastic resin on to the table. The dice reads, “18.” The man sighs and then laments, “fine… how do you want to do this?” The table erupts in cheers, as high-fives are given from the others around the table. The woman adjusts her hat, as she gleefully explains how her character will use the momentum of several falling barrels to move across the map in a single turn without having to use all her character’s movement.
As a “Dungeon Master” (DM) for the tabletop role playing game, Dungeons and Dragons (D&D), I can say without a doubt that many DMs have encountered extremely similar events as the one described above. The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency can be a source of much resentment between the DM and the players around the table. Likewise, to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want offers no challenge, no reason to play. In terms of D&D rule enforcement, as is with many events in life, the choice of always being either a “Harsh Disciplinarian” or the lenient, “Laissez Faire Guide” is a false dichotomy. Instead, seeking balance between the two choices based first on the overall needs of the players, second on the needs of the story, and third on requirements and rules of the game should be the norm.

Session 1: What is the Relationship between, Players, Games and Rules?

The 19th century philosopher and founder of modern cultural history, John Hughes once wrote, “Play is older than culture, for culture, however inadvertently defined, always presupposes human society and animals have not waited for man to teach them their playing.” ¹ Why do humans play? Is it instinctual? Bernard Suits was a Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Philosophy for the University of Waterloo and his essays are in part responsible for the field of philosophy of games in the late 20th century. In his book, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Suits’ book uses Aesop’s fable about the grasshopper to argue that play is what we would do in a perfect civilization. He believed that in a world devoid of work, humans would still seek out challenges through play, suggesting that it is human nature to challenge ourselves.² But is that the only reason someone plays a game?
One YouTuber opined that “In a practical sense, games facilitate systemic thinking by getting us to view abstractions, but also engender creativity by getting us to play.”³ If true, these are essential tools for humanity to function as an intelligent race. This makes sense from an evolutionary level as to why humanity would develop play, but is there more to it than “games encourage outside the box thinking?”
The landmark paper titled, “MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research” is one of the earliest attempts to formalize the field of video game design theory and it is fundamental to how modern game designers look at these systems. It serves to define the importance of mechanic, dynamics, and aesthetics of play and is instrumental to helping understand what players will expect out of a game. We will discuss more about dynamics and mechanics later, but first let us focus on aesthetics.
Aesthetics of Play Defined

Term	Definition	Examples
Sense Pleasure	Enjoyment derived from how it stimulates the senses	The visuals of a game, sound, and music, feel of the dice, etc.
Fantasy	Enjoyment derived from the ability to step into a role that cannot be experienced in real life	Playing a game as a magic wielding sorcerer or rocks in the far flung reaches of outer space
Narrative	Enjoyment derived from game as drama, it is about the stories and experience gained	Heavily story driven games such as Last of Us, Dungeons and Dragons, Final Fantasy
Challenge	Enjoyment derived from overcoming an arbitrary obstacle	Platformers like Mario, or even drinking games like beer pong, or corn hole; social games like charades, etc.
Fellowship	Enjoyment from working cooperatively as a group to accomplish a goal	Team based or social games such as Among Us, the card game Spades; save the world mode on Fortnite
Competition	Enjoyment from showing dominance	Chess or Go, Battle royal games such as Fortnite or PubG or Call of Duty; Fallguys; darts Poker; Uno, Killer bunnies or Magic the Gathering;
Discovery	Enjoyment from uncovering the new or discovering news ways to play a game.	These can range from searching to find things to choose your own adventure Minecraft; Zelda Breath of the Wild; simple matching games; the board game Betrayal at the House on the Hill; or games like Fable; Dragon Age Inquisition; or Mass effect
Expression	Enjoyment from showing an aspect of one’s self; or games that allow full customization of characters	Creation games like Minecraft; role play games like fallout 4; world of warcraft or Fortnite
Submission (aka Abnegation)	Enjoyment from being able to “turn of the brain; and tune out the world” or what is also known as zone out factor.	Bejeweled; candy crush; the lever-pull games at casinos, solitaire, etc.
	(Source: Portnow & Floyd, October 2012)⁵

Aesthetics are things like sense pleasure, fantasy, the narrative of the story, challenge, fellowship, discovery, expression, and something called submission.⁴ There is an additional aesthetic that most game designers also consider when designing games termed as “competition”.⁵ These are all reasons people play games and it is important to keep all these in mind when acting as a DM.
The table above works to define these terms more appropriately and makes it easier to reference later. The reasons a player may want to play a game vary and change over time. If a DM can understand their players’ goals (i.e., what the player hopes to get out of the game) the DM will be able to understand why someone might want to perform a certain action, play a game, or want to ignore a certain rule in the first place.
On that note, what are rules in games? Think about it… Games are weird… well I should say the act of playing a game… is weird. Suits once wrote in his article, for the “Philosophy of Science Association Journal,” "To play a game is to engage in activity directed towards bringing about a specific state of affairs, using only means permitted by rules, where the rules prohibit more efficient [means] in favor of less efficient means, and where such rules are accepted just because they make possible such activity."⁶ In other words, to play a game we create rules that prevent us from achieving a goal through the easiest means available. Instead, we make something more difficult and we play a game. For instance, in basketball, it would be far easier to simply carry the ball all the way to the basket instead of dribbling it.
In D&D, there is a similar activity to dribbling. It is called a “dice roll.” It is something that players must make to see if they succeed or fail at a task. The player rolls a 20-sided die and tries to get above a certain score to succeed. Players can roll normal, with advantage, or with disadvantage. Rolling with advantage allows the player to roll the D-20 (the 20-sided die) twice and use the higher number. Rolling with disadvantage also has the player roll the D-20 twice, but they must take the lower number rolled instead. It introduces a chance of randomness, and players will find any excuse they can to avoid having to make a roll with "disadvantage." In his book, The Grasshopper, Suits argues that we do this because it is the act of overcoming that limitation that we find enjoyment. By taking on these restrictions and accepting these limitations, we take on what he coins as a "lusory attitude" which allows us to play the game as it is meant to be played.
Suits would argue that by not playing the game according to the rules as written, the player would have only achieved a “quasi-victory” not really worthy of achievement. He also goes on to say that even the act of “failing to win the game by virtue of losing it implies an achievement, in the sense that the activity in question -- playing the game -- has been successfully, even though not victoriously, complete.”⁷ So, according to Suits, it’s better to follow the rules of the game and loose than to not follow the rules and win. It’s important to point out that the aesthetics of play had not yet been defined and Suits’ work mainly focused on the “challenge” aspect of play. This is where many sports and game philosophers begin to find fault with Suits. In the “Journal of Philosophy of Sport,” a rebuttal of Suits’ work by David Myers asks, “What if the goal of the player isn't to follow the rules or even play the game?”⁸ For instance, what happens if the player is motivated by competition and doesn’t care about rules so long as “they win?” While an extreme example, this paradox isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Therefore, focusing on just the challenge aesthetic of game play and simply playing the game “rules as written” can lead to a disconnect between what the player desires and the game itself.
Jesper Juul, an Associate Professor in the School of Design at the Royal Danish Academy of Fine Arts, wrote in his textbook on video game design, “Rules specify limitations and affordances. They prohibit players from performing actions such as making jewelry out of dice, but they also add meaning to the allowed actions, and this affords players meaningful actions that were not otherwise available; rules give games structure”⁹ Basically, without rules we cannot even have play. However, if the player ignores the rules that player won’t be able to enjoy the full experience of the game, because the rules both afford the opportunity to enjoy the game and provide the obstacles in the first place.
How the rules affect actual game play is where Mechanics and Dynamics come into play. (See, I told you we would get back to it eventually.) Mechanics are the rules and systems that govern chance to create the game we experience. Dynamics are how those rules come together to govern the strategies of that game. In D&D, an example of mechanics is how a player would have to roll a 20-sided dice to see if an action would succeed. Dynamics are the actions the player takes to manipulate the situation and give themselves advantage in the roll. Some examples of this are using a spell caster’s familiar, flanking an enemy in combat, using the bend luck trait, or lucky feat. This is akin to how the rules of poker dictate that bluffing is allowed (mechanics); but how the bluffing player conceals their tells and bets is entirely up to that player (dynamics).
What happens when the player’s desired aesthetics and the mechanics don’t allow for the dynamics the player wants to use? This is where it falls on the DM to determine if the game can handle a little rule bending. In the Dungeon Master Guide’s introduction, it states “The D&D rules help you and the other players have a good time, but the rules aren’t in charge. You’re the DM, and you are in charge of the game…” However! It goes on to say, “The success of a D&D game hinges on your ability to entertain the other players at the game table.” What is a good way to approach this? Is it THE DM IS ALWAYS RIGHT, able to enforce their will on the players whenever it suits their need? Should the DM strictly enforce the rules and narrative of their planned story without the need to appease the players’ wants and desires?... well… The DM COULD do it, but it won’t be long before their players stop showing to game sessions. Just like the rules, without players, there is no game. Or as one notable professional DM and YouTuber once put it:

“The game you weave belongs to the players as much as yourself… so make sure to humor them every once in awhile by giving them a chance to be extraordinary" - Patrick "the Goddam DM" Tracy ¹⁰

Session 2: The Ethics of a Dungeon Master

So how does someone seek a balance between the rules and the players? Enter situational ethics. Situational ethics, first proposed by philosopher and first professor of ethics at Harvard Medical School, Joseph Fletcher,** is an attempt to seek a middle ground between two ethical schools of thought: Legalism and Antinomianism. In legalism, morality must come from a strict set of rules that must be obeyed at all times and cannot be deviated from or broken for any reason. Antinomianism, on the other hand, is the idea that there should be no rules, you should be able to do what you want, whenever you want (lawless society). ¹¹
In D&D terms, "Fanatical Legalism" would be similar to what many DMs would characterize as "Lawful Stupid," where a certain player's character enforces harsh judgement without ever showing mercy to those who would break the law regardless of the circumstances… even to the detriment of the party… or that small band of orphans who were stealing food out of desperation…
Likewise, in D&D terms, "Fanatical Antinomianism" would be similar to what DMs would characterize as "Chaotic Stupid," where a player's character completely ignores consequences an action would bring and simply act according to their whims… even when it's an obvious trap… that has a 100 percent chance to damage not only your character, but the other players as well.
Fletcher's work states that the morally right thing to do depends on the situation and can change throughout the situation, but at the same time, there is a universal “moral law” on which to base our actions that he called "Agape" love. Derived from the Greek word of similar pronunciation, Fletcher sought to define Agape as a means to show love for your fellow human. In his book titled “Situational Ethics,” Fletcher states, "All laws, rules, principles, ideals and norms, are only contingent, only valid if they happen to serve love."¹² Or to put it a different way, a desire to see your fellow human be happy is and should be the goal. It is not really a feeling, but an attitude to do what is best for others.
In terms of the D&D alignment chart, this would be easiest to define as whether someone is "Good" or "Evil." Whereas a “good character” is someone who acts for the betterment of others regardless of personal motivations, conversely an “evil character” acts out of their own self-interests regardless of how this action would affect others. Those that follow the concept of Agape would be “good characters.” Those that do not, would be evil.
This is where the so-called “Rule of Cool” comes into play. Mathew Mercer, an extremely acclaimed DM, comedian, and writer of D&D’s “Explorer’s Guide to Wild Mount,” and host of the show “Critical Roll,” defines the Rule of Cool as a trope in the D&D community that is “the willing suspension of disbelief for the sake of a cool moment.”¹³ It’s used in moments where the use of an certain object or action would be nearly impossible according to the mechanics of the game, but because it is a “cool dynamic,” the DM allows it. But what is “cool?” Is it a player that is normally too nervous to speak up being able to do something unique on time despite it being against the rules? Is it a player that has spent considerable time perfecting a skill and being able to perform a truly “epic task” (such as the jumping across barrels to effectively triple their movement distance)? Is it succeeding in persuading the main villain to befriend the party through a series of increasingly complex but successful rolls?
In all these situations listed above, there is a common theme that ties all the principles of what this paper is trying to address together in a simple phrase. As a DM, before making a ruling ask, "How will this decision affect the final enjoyment of all at the table?" Now a DM cannot give the players everything they want. Doing so cheapens the truly extraordinary moments. Finding the right balance can be difficult. That is why the flow chart above is suggested when trying to figure out whether it is a good time to “Remember the Rule of Cool.”
https://i.redd.it/f362ghdjlqf61.png

Session 3: “Well… You can Certainly Try”- Some Famous DM

Finally, we can discuss how the desire to make the most enjoyable experience for everyone at the table plays out using real-world examples and advice from some of the most well-known DMs in the business. Using the concept of Situational Ethics’ Agape, we can see how to work in the rule of cool using eight tips for Dungeon Masters.
Tip 1: It is advised to know your audience.
Not everything is as it seems, so be sure to pay attention to your players and look at them when you are describing the situation. Make note of how they react when tones or themes change. Remember those reasons people play games mentioned earlier? This is where those come into play. Additionally, while not something outright suggested, it is nevertheless important to take team dynamics into account.
The book “Four lenses unfolded” describes how various personality types can interact and work to solve problems. In it, the book describes four primary temperaments: Green (analytical), Blue (empathetic), Orange (adventurous), and Gold (goal oriented). Unlike most other personality tests, four lenses theory suggests that while we have a dominant personality at any given moment, other aspects of these personalities can manifest as well. Being able to draw on these aspects at will is the mark of a “mature” individual.¹⁴ As a DM/referee, coach, or manager, being able to do this and adapt to the needs of the players will take player engagement to the next level.
Tip 2: Establishing and Managing Expectations Early and Often, Works to Prevent Disappointment and Confusions
Mercer once put it this way, “Establish early on in your campaign how much of a level of crazy you're willing to allow. This allows for players to better understand what to try for and what not to try for.”¹⁵ Whether you are a teacher, referee, coach, parent, supervisor, or mentor, establishing expectations with those involved mitigates problems before they arise.
One of the main tools DM’s have for this is that is recommended by Mercer, as well as nearly every DM in existence on the internet, is the “Session Zero.” Session Zero is a term used to describe a session where no play occurs but instead rules that will be used and rules that will be ignored or bent is established. It also serves to establish a theme the players can expect from any campaign. Using the first chapter of the DMs guide will help considerably in establishing this. Additionally, one of the best guides for this is laid out by the DM YouTubers known as “the Dungeon Dudes” in their video titled, “How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e.”¹⁶ But always keep Agape in mind throughout this process. In this step, it means actively listening to the players. The DM may want a gritty, tough, realistic, and challenging campaign. But if the players want a high fantasy power trip, some adjustments are going to need to be made to the campaign. Listening to players and changing the plans accordingly is not easy. It requires A LOT of humility and ego suppression. Especially when the DM has already designed how the game is going to go… which leads us to the next tip.
Tip 3: It is important to develop a healthy relationship with failure.
Celebrated author Orson Wells once wrote; “If you want a happy ending, that of course, is dependent of where you stop your story.”¹⁷ This applies to both the players and DM. There will be times when the DM is tempted to ignore the rules because the consequences seem dire. The player fails an athletics check trying to use a dynamic that had a high-risk, high-reward moment. Now the player’s character is doomed to fall several hundred feet down a ravine to what is likely certain doom in lava. But this isn’t the end. That player’s character is most likely dead, but their death could result in a moment of drama and tension for the players. It’s the very real chance of failure that encourages players to think critically about a situation and experience excitement and tension. Brennon Lee Mulligan, the DM of the D&D streaming show, “Dimension 20,” put it this way… “if you are not allowing for failure, you are essentially just telling a story,” and thus never actually playing a game (make-believe as Suits would put it). ¹⁸
Another thing to consider is that through failure, we can often find comedy as well as ways to encourage players to think critically and find new escapes, ¹⁹ at least according to the mind behind the “Replaying the Curse of Strahd” videos, Benjamin (Puffin Forest) Scott. Lastly, Mercer strongly advises that if a DM allows too many “rule of cool moments” to happen in succession, the weight of the moments and consistency of the game will be lost. ²⁰
Players that are afraid to fail will not try. Mercer explains that “Most role play games are designed to forge a heroic story (showing feats of legend) so let the players try! Let them fail, and occasionally succeed!” This is where his catch phrase “you can certainly try” comes from. ²¹
Tip 4: Whenever Possible, Avoid Taking Things Personally
In his lecture on not talking things personally, soccer referee and public speaker, Frederik Imbo, explained there are two sides of a coin to keep in mind when trying not to take things personally: “It is not about you,” and “it is about you.” ²² Look at the other person’s intentions not just yours. With that in mind, it is okay to give yourself empathy and speak up. When someone seems upset with you, ask what are they hoping to get out of this releasing of emotions? Additionally, ensure that your pride isn’t preventing you from making the correct call. Yes I am talking about Ego again; it is that important! It is the DM’s world, but it is the players’ game. Without both, the world and the game, you do not have D&D.
D&D has a weird paradox of being both a story and a game. It has both a narrative as its core premise, but it is, in fact, also a multi-player game. Without at least two people you cannot really have much fun. DMs should make sure that everyone at the table enjoys themselves.
Tip 5: Mechanics are important precisely because they are a means of delivering impactful story moments.
Remember that rule of cool concept? Extraordinary moments don’t happen often, and this is by design of the mechanics of the game. Humans remember the novel and unique way more often than the mundane. Mundane things tend to blend into the background. It’s the unexpected moments that highlight the more impactful story moments, especially if that moment is tied to strong emotions.²³
With that in mind, Mulligan suggests looking at where the players are putting their resources before deciding how to rule on a situation. Have they invested experience points/levels into a specific skill that is relevant to this situation instead of just something they can use in combat? If so, reward them for wanting to do something that is a part of the world you are creating together. ²⁴
Tip 6: Discourage metagaming but allow it whenever possible.
Look for any and every excuse you can to give advantage on an arcana check by setting the DC low (10 or higher). If the player succeeds, they can use what they know… they are going to anyway, but at least then they can talk about it with the other players.
According to the DM guide Chapter 8, metagame thinking means “thinking about the game as a game,” Examples would be thinking “the DM wouldn’t throw such a powerful monster at us so early in the game, so we will surely be saved and not have to take this fight seriously,” or “the DM spent A LOT of time describing that door… maybe we should search it again!” ²⁵
The problem with metagaming isn’t really about what advantage the players are getting in the game. The problem is that manipulation of the dynamics, when used to extremes, can spoil the plot line of the cumulative story being told. This can lessen the drama and tension elements resulting in decreased enjoyment of those involved. Additionally, it can create a dynamic where the DM is constantly having to escalate encounters to challenge the player, encouraging a potentially toxic “DM vs player” mentality.
For instance, how would a street orphan barbarian with no formal education and a wisdom of …let’s say very low…be able to know that liches phylactery is the source of their power. The solution here depends on why the players are playing this specific game. Is it the narrative of the story? Is it discovery? If these aren’t anywhere close to the reasons these players came to the game table in the first place, the narrative is not going to take as much of a factor into decisions. Metagaming in this instance isn’t going to be much of a problem.
Tip 7: Keep in mind, the ending is “A” destination, but the story is about how you get there.
A DM may hold off the extra cool moments for the final parts of the game, keeping their players in complete darkness and grit the entire way. However, without at least some levity along the way, some “water for the weary travelers,” as Mercer put it, they may not make it to the end.²⁶ So, do not be afraid to relax the rules from time to time to give them those cool moments, but do so sparingly lest the destination lose its luster as well. Always keep in mind it’s about the enjoyment of crafting and playing in the world together that makes this, or really any game, fun.
Tip 8: When all else fails… take a break and have the Tarrasque attack the party.
When all else fails, roll two D-20s out of players’ views… fake a worried expression… role a D-100 (also out of player’s view) look over the score concerned as you pour through your notes… then explain sorrowfully… “I’m sorry… The Tarrasque has risen and has attacked the party. Everyone roll initiative.” This is actual advice from the DM manual. It is right under “faking illness and running away.”²⁷ The point is this: never be afraid to pause or call a game when it’s over or needed.
Maybe something incredibly uncomfortable for a player has happened. Maybe the DM has reached the end of what they were able to prepare for that session. Perhaps everyone is hungry or needs a bathroom break. Maybe the entire table has gotten to a point where no one can agree on anything and team dynamics are breaking down. That game world will always be there… but your friends won’t. Cherish that moment and make as many good moments as possible. Additionally, taking breaks both in-game and in the real world allow for quiet moments. These allow for the greater moments to shine through and the players will enjoy their experience more.
https://i.redd.it/1ncu361zlqf61.png
The graphic above serves to summarize the eight tips above and show their relationship with the narrative, enjoyment, and the rules when put in the context of situational ethics. From this graph, the relationship between the eight tips and how they play into the narrative, enjoyment, and rules of the game can be seen. Each of the tips can influence many parts of the game but they are intended to primarily influence the aspect of the game they are adjacent to. “Knowing the players” should influence the narrative and what kind of enjoyment the players receive. What mechanics are used to enable the game is causally related to how the rules are used and so on. Please note that Agape is at the center as, with every decision a DM makes, considering what is best for the players should be central to the experience of any game.
The Epic Conclusion
Through crafting a game-world together with your players, a DM has the potential to tap into one of the greatest traditions humanity has: camaraderie with friends. At the end of the day, these players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, you should want what is best for them. Through trials, hardships, and drama, we get to put the punctuation on the moments of excitement, joy, happiness, and bliss. It is okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. This is because getting everything we expect is sometimes boring. However, always keep in mind that at the end of the day, games are about having fun. How that happens is up to the players, the DM, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?”
1 Huizinga, Johan . "Homo Ludens". Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd. (1980), pp. 1., accessed January 19, 2021. http://art.yale.edu/file_columns/0000/1474/ homoludens_johan_huizinga_routledge_1949.pdf
2 Suits, Bernard, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Broadview Press. Ed. 3. (November 29, 2005): 54–55. Accessed December 31, 2020. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/803547.The_Grasshopper
3 The Game Overanalyzer, The Aesthetics of Play | Why We Play Games, and the Search for Truth and Beauty in Game Design. The Game Overanalyzer. (January 11, 2020), accessed 6 January 2021. Video 18:44. https://youtu.be/lONsZwjVDzg
4 Hunicke, Robin, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek. "MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research." Proceedings of the AAAI Workshop on Challenges in Game AI, vol. 4, no. 1, p. 1722. (2004). Accessed January 11, 2020 https://www.aaai.org/Papers/Workshops/2004/WS-04-04/WS04-04-001.pdf
5 Portnow, James; Floyd, Daniel; Aesthetics of Play- Redefining Genres in Gaming. Extra Credits; (October 17, 2012), Video 9:13. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uepAJ-rqJKA&list=PL3N9QD4_yI-BlnwWUL8hhjpKgqRul3xAa&index=11
6 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox.” Chicago University Press. Philosophy of Science Association Journal, Vol 36, no. 3 (September 1, 1969). pg 316–.321. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/186226
7 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox (1969)
8 Myers, David. “Game as Paradox: A Rebuttal of Suits.” Journal of the philosophy of Sport 39, no. 1 (May 1, 2012). Accessed December 30, 2020. https://search-ebscohost-com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=ip&db=s3h&AN=87342252&site=ehost-live&scope=site.
9 Juul, Jesper. "Half-Real: Video Games between Real Rules and Fictional Worlds", MIT Press, (Aug 19, 2011) pp.57-59
10 Tracy, Patrick. DM Tips: The Rule of Cool. Fantasy Bango. (October 20, 2017). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 2:23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8aAIFalx6s
11 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. Westminster John Knox Press, (1997). Page 17-26 (accessed January 20, 2021) http://bit.ly/Googlescholar_SItuational_Ethics
**Please note that just because Fletcher’s Situational Ethics is used prominently, this is not an endorsement of all his views. Fletcher’s work has been used to justify terrible atrocities, such as eugenics, this should serve to point out that any philosophy taken to extremes can lead to terrible outcomes
12 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. (1997)
13 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). Geek & Sundry. (February 16, 2016). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video. 5:52 https://youtu.be/fWZDuFIYkf0
14 Bryce, Nathan K., “Four Lenses Unfolded: A Deeper Understanding of Temperament Values,” Insight; (January 29, 2002,).
15 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016).
16 McLaughlin, Kelly; Martin, Monty. "How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e". Dungeon Dudes. (September 3, 2020), Accessed 12 30, 2020. Video. https://youtu.be/2MA-z5Ai-bQ
17 Wells, Orson, "The Big Brass Ring." Santa Teresa Press (1987, January 1) 1-148
18 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) | Adventuring Academy Season 2 | Ep. 16 |” Adventuring Academy. Dimension (2020, December 28). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 1:24:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IbVxEKpipo
19 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020)
20 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016)..
21 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016)
22 Imbo, Frederik, "How not to take things personally? | Frederik Imbo | TEDxMechelen" TEDx Talks; (March 4, 2020) accessed 10 Jan 2021, video 17:36 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnJwH_PZXnM&t=381s
23 Kensinger, Elizabeth. Remembering the Details: Effects of Emotion. US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health. (May 4, 2009) Accessed 2021, January 30 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2676782/
24 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020)
25 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014) accessed 29 January 2021 https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg/running-the-game#MetagameThinking
26 Mulligan, Brennan; Mercer, Matthew. Building Your Own Campaign Setting (with Matthew Mercer) | Adventuring Academy. Dimension 20. (2019, April 3) Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 57:01 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sig8X_kojco&t=2867s
27 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014)-accessed 20 January 2021. https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg

My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading

TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.

~~I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking -~~ . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.

I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)

There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.

At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)

"How do you prepare for a trading day?"
"What would you go back to tell yourself?"
"Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
"What is your background?"
"What is a normal day for you?"
"How did you discover your strategy?"
"What did you do/How did you get started?"
"What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
"Is enough to start trading?"
"Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.

•ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.

2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.

•ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.

If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" ^{(Sound familiar?})

When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.

•ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).

ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.

Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...

The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:

Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!

ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.

"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)

Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.

11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:

Risky Decision-Making
Decision Avoidance

Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".

ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.

Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.

Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

•Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
•If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
•Things you can't take to the bank:

RRR.
Win-Rate
Number of trades.
"This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"

All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.

ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:

Health
Wealth
Happiness

People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these ~~"Traders"~~ marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.

•ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.

Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.

Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)

ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.

That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:

RiskReward Calculators
Position size Calculators
EV Calculator
Dictionary with examples

I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:

"How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
"What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
"Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
"What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
"What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
"How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
"What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
"What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
"Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
"Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.

As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.

All the best!
-CJT2013

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